Quote from fenn68 on September 19, 2023, 1:00 pm

From the payroll if they keep Soto but let all the FA go (along with Wacha, Lugo, and Martinez not agreeing on options) … “starting” payroll (CBT version) would drop to just under $237MM (my guesses on arbitration and no FA adds). $50MM+/- from 2023. Move Soto at about $30MM … they go about $80MM lower.

So with that, a lot of room to alter the roster … maybe for the better … maybe not … and even if they keep Soto (and that is a better than 50/50 call).

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 19, 2023, 1:46 pm

We are basically in the market for two starting pitchers and a Closer or set up man and another BP arm or two at a minimum.

I hope they keep Cooper and Barlow.

I would like to have Sanchez and Campy behind the plate but Sanchez will probably get too much to make sense for us.

There really isn't much needed in the lineup otherwise unless Soto or Kim are traded.

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 19, 2023, 2:58 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 19, 2023, 1:46 pm

We are basically in the market for two starting pitchers and a Closer or set up man and another BP arm or two at a minimum.

I hope they keep Cooper and Barlow.

I would like to have Sanchez and Campy behind the plate but Sanchez will probably get too much to make sense for us.

There really isn't much needed in the lineup otherwise unless Soto or Kim are traded.

 

Guessing Barlow stays (his 3rd ARB year for maybe $6MM+/-) … Padres need pen and his 2021-22 seasons were good as a closer … so $6MM depth at a position of need.

As for the position player bench (and DH) would not rule out re-signing Profar beyond the INF/OF versatility clearly a clubhouse plus (and a Preller favorite). After that it is how to deploy money for pitching vs. bench upgrades … and to some degree the late season performance of Batten, Campusano, and Rosario might alter the targets. Cooper and Sanchez probably are over $5MM each as would be Profar.

Padres also have to project the ML readiness (start or mid-season) of Pauley, Merrill, and Marsee (would be shocked if Bush is up in 2024). If they are positive on any of those three maybe they don’t push the envelope for veteran bench pieces beyond more $1-2MM types.

 

Quote from WindsorUK on September 19, 2023, 3:04 pm

With opening in South Korea, trading Kim may not happen.

Quote from WindsorUK on September 19, 2023, 3:35 pm

Quote from sportwarrior on September 19, 2023, 10:21 am

Not really sure which thread to bring this up in, but The Athletic just published a fairly devastating indictment on Preller's ability to cultivate any kind of positive organizational or clubhouse chemistry. It's something most of us have felt and/or suspected, but this write up is pretty thorough and absolutely damning.

For those of you that can read it:

https://theathletic.com/4874799/2023/09/19/san-diego-padres-disaster-season-preller/

Link shut down after first paragraph.

Blaming Preller is spot on.

Quote from fenn68 on September 20, 2023, 4:06 am

All of us have a view of what the Padres SHOULD do this winter … a lot of different views.

I’ll take a shot at what is the most likely scenario.

1. Siedler is the key starting point … he clearly want to win now and is willing to spend (but within some limits). As poor as the team has looked in 2023 … he will look at the core of stars  who under performed and conclude that 2024 will be a bounce back year for them yielding the kind of result they expected before the season started … a clear elite playoff team … so will not push to be a “seller”.

2. Siedler clearly supports Preller so Preller will remain the GM. Add that Siedler believes winning is 2024 is probable with some minor tweaks … changing GM disrupts the front office in a way that will hurt the plan for 2024 (need a new GM … new GM has to learn the team … need the new GM to make front office changes … that takes time and focus away from making improvements).

3. Melvin likely will go (mutual agreement) … all reports are that Melvin has been miserable as the manager all the way back to 2022 due to the front office (Preller and others) involvement with field operations … basically under mining his ability to manage in a way that made him a 3X manger of the year. Preller probably does not care about Melvin but also does not care about the body he puts in that role as long as he controls the day to day play.

4. New manager will likely a process (real or not) so many are interviewed but will NOT be a strong veteran (like Melvin) … not someone who will present conflict with Preller. Given Preller / Siedler likely believe they will rebound in 2024 … going with a new manager that is “familiar” with the current roster is critical to get a good start to next season. Two with “inside” tracks: Mike Shildt, officially works in the front office as “Player Development Consultant” but he is a really Preller spy in uniform on the bench … veteran successful ML manager who works well with Preller; or Ryan Flaherty who his the current Bench Coach / Offensive Coordinator, again keep some continuity but more importantly he is Machado’s man (and we know Machado’s tight relationship with Siedler / Preller). Maybe Shildt as manager (but looking short run given his age) with Flaherty promoted to manager in waiting.

5. With Siedler’s wanting to win in 2024 and a belief in this core team and faith in Preller … Preller’s faith in his decisions that made this team … Padres will NOT trade Soto or Kim and effort to stabilize the pitching with minor tinkering for the bench.

So, like it or not, the only big move this winter will be a change in manager to a Preller guy and few significant signings other than maybe one (or two) SP.

2024 … Padres in the playoffs.

Quote from fenn68 on September 20, 2023, 3:29 pm

SP in MLB have an aggregate 4.46 ERA … SD SP is at 3.89 ERA or 5th best in MLB. That would have been better if Darvish had a better season (near his norm) and the filler SP past the core 5 were even just somewhat effective. So, SP has been a strength overall.

2024 Musgrove (coming off a shoulder injury) and Darvish (coming off an elbow and a poor 2023) pitching a full season should, we hope, improve the season long effectiveness for both.

However, the potential losses of Snell, Wacha, Lugo, and Martinez maybe more devastating that some think … beginning to feel that finding “equivalent” replacements for all would unlikely. So, that put the Padres into the position of making a big push to resign at least some … both from a quality and a consistency standpoint.

Keeping in mind the averaged SP ERA is 4.46, consider what is at risk:

1. Snell (31 next season) … 31 GS … 174.0 innings … 2.33 ERA (#1 in MLB)

2. Wacha (32 next season) … 22 GS … 120.1 innings … 3.44 ERA (#12 if qualified)

3. Lugo (34 next season ) … 25 GS … 137.2 innings … 3.79 ERA (#30 in qualified)

4. Martinez (33 next season) … 61 games (7 starts) … 101.1 innings … 3.73 ERA (#30 if qualified).

Simply that is a lot of starts / innings to replace from four pitchers who among the top ERA pitchers in MLB … with no expectation that an internal option can pitch to those levels in 2024 and finding at least 3 FA as good is maybe unrealistic.

Snell looks like a clear FA departure (but never know as FA develops) and that makes it even more important to go full bore on Wacha, Lugo, and Martinez (who probably would get his chance to be a SP to start 2024). That trio probably could be had on 2 year deals (maybe with options) with a bit of a premium AAV which allow them to move on as the internal prospects start arriving. (Note they always can be trade chips).

Quote from Randy Manese on September 20, 2023, 5:48 pm

My understanding is that the if the Padres exercise their team option on Wacha for 16M for 2024, then that locks in his contract for 16M for 2025; Wacha would then be a free agent in 2026.  If the Padres decline the team option, Wacha can exercise his player option to stay with the team for 6.5M, which (of course) he would not do.

This is the same kind of set up for Martinez, but his player option is for 8M.  Lugo is a straight up player option for 7.5M.  It is obvious to me that Martinez is not worth 18M as a starter (but I'm okay with 8M as a RP) and that Lugo will want significantly more than 7.5M in free agency.  Martinez probably seeking a 1 year deal in the 10-12M range, hoping to build upon that for a final big payday.  Lugo will want a longer term deal at probably twice the 7.5M he got this year.  So I'm thinking it would take at least 25M to sign both and that's probably a low figure.

For that 25M, I'd invest in Yamamoto, who just turned 25 and can be very productive for another 5-6 years at least; I'd like to pay less for Yamamoto but the competition will be stiff.  For the money I would have had to compete for Snell, likely north of 30M, would bring in Ryu. at a much lower salary - possibly the same 20M he got this year but a longer term contract.  We only need Ryu to be productive for another 2 years before our crop of young arms makes their presence felt.  Ryu, now that he's finally got his TJ surgery done, probably is in the 20M range.

While we can't replace Snell, the collective group of SP's listed above may have an even better aggregate ERA given a return to health of Darvish, Musgrove and even Wacha, who missed several weeks with that bum shoulder.  Yamamoto and Ryu are also likely to eat up more innings per start than Snell thus helping out the bullpen even though Snell's pitching overall is Cy Young worthy.  Snell really likes San Diego but he is a frustrating pitcher to watch and pin your hopes on, especially as he ages.  Bring in the younger Yamamoto and let's move forward with a tweaked but potentially more effective overall pitching staff.  I think candidates for the #6 and #7 starters will be found, internally or externally, with Preller making further creative deals if necessary to keep this team in the hunt for the 2024 playoffs.  Bergert and Snelling may be ready a lot sooner than most people think.

Quote from fenn68 on September 21, 2023, 4:09 am

Agree Yamamoto is an appealing alternative being quality … younger … and will be a stable piece for years … and “only” $10-15 MM more than one of the Wacha - Lugo - Martinez options. Of course that is IF the Padres can sign him vs IF they can re-sign Lugo and Martinez.

Hard to imagine the Padres not taking the club option on Wacha given his past two seasons coupled with the huge SP need. Given the other contracts Preller has handed out the 2 years only is a big plus. Lugo is a clear opt out and if it gets to Martinez’s player option he too will opt out (he is currently at $10MM … had a good season again … and his option is at $8MM … he will not do worse on the open market).

The tricky issue is timing (and total commitment) … other teams will be trying to sign them (and the other quality FA SP), so does Preller have a priority sequence? When does he back-off one if negotiations are dragging to be sure he gets an alternative?

Yamamoto is the wild card. He will be in line for big money and probably a 6 year deal given his age … a lot of teams will be in pursuit and that might drag negotiations out pretty long. How good is he in the Padres’ minds (#3 SP … higher)? If 2024 is a press year for winning … will he perform to expectations in his first year in the US/ML better than the alternatives? How much faith do the Padres have in the post-2024 potential of the internal prospects who would provide equal control at a much lower cost?

A lot of moving parts … most not in Preller’s control and a lot of projections in play. Would guess Preller has some other targets in mind who we have yet to consider … just because it is Preller. Are there some other SP coming out of Japan that could be in play … maybe not as good as Yamamoto but still solid #4-5 types at a lower price point? However, do think he needs make one or two SP signings early given the need for SP and maybe get down to one slot for longer term negotiations if his targets are not quick to agree.