Quote from fenn68 on September 18, 2023, 7:38 pm

Also, note the Tatis contract … 14 years. The first four were buyouts of Arbitration years (so more aligned with ARB values not FA value). If we only look at the 10 FA years included in the contract … $306MM or a $30.6 AAV.

So Padres have no issue with long contracts and AAVs rising just above $30MM. Tatis was the first deal at $30.6 … Machado was last winter at created an effective $31.3MM (slightly more on the extension) … so, this winter the 15 years at a $33.3MM AAV does fit the Padres’ past deals.

Quote from fenn68 on September 19, 2023, 8:04 am

What to do over the winter has a lot of ways to go depending on how one interprets the failures of 2023 … the FA … and the prospect of “rebounds.

I will toss in a maybe under the radar depth focus. #6-7 SP (after dealing with #3-5 SP). That is probably harder than identifying a #1-5 SP … a player who is either in the pen or minors most of the season and only starts if needed … but will be needed.

In 2023 Musgrove, Darvish, Snell, Wacha, and Lugo have missed 33 starts (only the soon departed Snell has made all their starts) … when they did start their records where +18 in wins vs losses  (yes, other factors exist but wins are wins). Those 33 starts were covered by Weathers (10), Martinez (7), R.Hill (5), Avila (5), Waldron (4), Wolfe (1), Knehr (1) … that group have a -10 in wins vs losses. -9 came from Weathers and R.Hill. Even if they were .500 that would put the Padres neck and neck in the Wild Card race even with all the offensive issues.

IF (always a dangerous line of attack) the replacement starters kept the same winning percentage as the core 5 SP … they would have be +5 … a swing that would have put the Padres in the Wild Card.

Injuries will occur in 2024 … cannot assume they will not. A fair assumption is that the offense will “naturally” be better with the core returning. So, the winter has to have full focus on SP … a) cover Snell, Wacha, Lugo, and b) get upgrade at #6-7. Without any clear productive SP out of that “other” group in 2023 and no clear prospects ready to jump up and be productive … pitching, pitching, pitching …

 

 

Quote from BoosterSD on September 19, 2023, 8:23 am

Quote from fenn68 on September 19, 2023, 8:04 am

Injuries will occur in 2024 … cannot assume they will not. A fair assumption is that the offense will “naturally” be better with the core returning. So, the winter has to have full focus on SP … a) cover Snell, Wacha, Lugo, and b) get upgrade at #6-7. Without any clear productive SP out of that “other” group in 2023 and no clear prospects ready to jump up and be productive … pitching, pitching, pitching …

I believe that the broken toe (Musgrove) and the WBC (Darvish) had significant repercussions to their performance this season, and with a normal, healthy offseason/spring training should be fine for next season. A rework of the contracts for Wacha and Lugo should be doable without adding too drastic of salary increases for those two. So it is realistic to see 4 of 5 SPs returning for next season.

While I dont really consider Snell a true #1 SP, the fact is that since June, he has been dominant and that will be difficult to replace. So how does SD replace this spot is the biggest question. Im not sure I see anyone in FA that is a better bet to replace Snell, and would not be much less in dollars. And to be honest, big contracts make me more nervous than big contracts to position players. Not sure who might be available via trade, that will become clearer as the winter approaches.

So SD, might have to look for another Wacha/Lugo bounce back, RP to SP conversion that works out. And then hope the offense performs closer to the few games versus the up and down of the majority of this season.

I guess maybe a Preller special, and he trades for Corbin Burnes who is reportedly unhappy with his treatment by MIL during the arbitration process last season, and will be FA after the 2024 season.

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 19, 2023, 8:39 am

Would add that I did not consider any of the Padres’ prospects ready to start the 2024 campaign with the team BUT maybe mid-season for that call-up role they can get some solid work out of the likes of Snelling, Iriate, Mazur, Bergert … none really suited to sit in the pen just in case but as a call-up at least one or two could be an upgrade over the 2023 group of “others” … have to take some gambles.

Do agree that a couple of Wacha / Lugo types will be added to the mix.

The club option on Wacha, a new deal for Lugo and Martinez (back to starter) would be the easiest baseline then seen new blood.

IF they want to spend and seek a plus potential arm to replace Snell … don’t forget Yamamoto from Japan (25) who would create a multi-year base that is “younger”.

Quote from BoosterSD on September 19, 2023, 8:55 am

Quote from fenn68 on September 19, 2023, 8:39 am

IF they want to spend and seek a plus potential arm to replace Snell … don’t forget Yamamoto from Japan (25) who would create a multi-year base that is “younger”.

First year foreign players always make me nervous as to their performance compare to their previous league and the MLs. Rarely does it pan out the way we think. So while I could see him as a good signing, and a young investment, not sure I would/could count on him replacing Snell's productivity the first season, and leading a rotation that has playoff aspirations.

Quote from fenn68 on September 19, 2023, 9:47 am

Quote from BoosterSD on September 19, 2023, 8:55 am

Quote from fenn68 on September 19, 2023, 8:39 am

IF they want to spend and seek a plus potential arm to replace Snell … don’t forget Yamamoto from Japan (25) who would create a multi-year base that is “younger”.

First year foreign players always make me nervous as to their performance compare to their previous league and the MLs. Rarely does it pan out the way we think. So while I could see him as a good signing, and a young investment, not sure I would/could count on him replacing Snell's productivity the first season, and leading a rotation that has playoff aspirations.

Since I  don't see anyone I would rely on to replace Snell (at least anyone who appears available)  ... and need a lot of SP ...  Yamamoto MAY be one of the better options to fill out the 5 core SP.

Agree the 1st year transition is a risk (but who isn't) ... and he is not just good in Japan he is elite with most analysts listing him now as the #1 SP FA on the market. So, maybe does not come out of the gate as good as Snell but as good as Musgrove - Wacha and better than Darvish - Lugo?

Another one that may boil down to the contact ($ and years) combined with Yamamoto's preferences with competing offers.

Do think, give the number of open SP issues the Padres have to move quickly and decisively (and hopefully correctly) on filling some of those slots ... the better players (even the second tier) will be getting offers from others and have little motivation to wait on the Padres. Quality #3-7 is not an easy get under any circumstance in one winter and hard if they don't take early action on some.

At least right after the World Series they will know where they stand with Wacha - Martinez - Lugo and that may reduce the need for a full 3-5 SP hunt. Maybe an overpay but within the Padres control is the club option on Wacha ($32MM/2 years). Almost have to exercise that or let him go to FA and after his last two seasons will get that from some team (or better) with little down side risk.  Lugo is clearly going to be a FA and no idea the kind of contract he would get but likely better than his player option (Padres will have to compete vs others). Probably the same with Martinez who could return as a SP. Padres like him in his current jack of all trades role but at at $32MM/2 years while Martinez wants to get a real shot as a SP so probably would decline the $8MM player option, probably does not do worse in FA (think Manaea, Clevinger) so again the Padres would have to be in competition to retain him.

Would the Padres be better served to aggressively move  (maybe with a bit of a premium) to lock those three down ASAP then regear towards further upgrades? FA market is not all that impressive and a lot of competition.

 

Quote from sportwarrior on September 19, 2023, 10:21 am

Not really sure which thread to bring this up in, but The Athletic just published a fairly devastating indictment on Preller's ability to cultivate any kind of positive organizational or clubhouse chemistry. It's something most of us have felt and/or suspected, but this write up is pretty thorough and absolutely damning.

For those of you that can read it:

https://theathletic.com/4874799/2023/09/19/san-diego-padres-disaster-season-preller/

Quote from Randy Manese on September 19, 2023, 10:56 am

Snell will probably be in the top of the FA starter market along with Nola; Gray and Urias will not be far behind, although the latter's domestic violence issues will not make him desirable to the Padres.  Figure 30+M for either Snell or Nola (Rodon got 27M last year), which is a lot to sink into pitchers in their early 30's and who have been lucky so far in avoiding injuries; Gray may be just a little bit less but looking for Rodon type money.  Beyond this group the quality/reliability/consistency drops off but you still are talking about pitchers who will be seeking 15M+ contracts.  My strategy, looking at what the Padres have in the pipeline in the next 2-3 years (Bergert, Snelling, Lesko, Iriarte) would be to sign Yamamoto (who just turned 25 last month) and oldster coming off TJ surgery, Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is having a great comeback year after postponing this surgery for years.  Both these guys have bionic arms and I believe both have value in their respective future roles with the Padres.  I'm looking at around 20M for each.  Don't know what how the money works out but if we move Soto and drop salaries for Snell, Hader, Pomeranz, Garcia, etc.  and replace them with less expensive alternatives, then this seems do-able.  As the older guys phase-out, the youngsters will move up.

For 2024, Yamamoto will take the place of Darvish at the #2 spot in the rotation behind Musgrove, followed by Darvish, Wacha and Ryu.   I think this gives us a solid 5 man with guys who can go more than 5 innings.  Need the SP depth, but that can come from within (Iriarte, Bergert, and maybe Morejon and Krob) or lower cost FA options.  I like the core of the bullpen with Cosgrove and Kerr from the left side and Suarez, Wilson and Barlow from the right.  Could throw in Jacob and even guys like Reynolds (notwithstanding the horrors of El Paso) Paplham and the aforementioned long-men/piggyback starters into that mix.  I think this staff sets up much better than what we had this year and certainly just be odds alone, we should be have lesser impacting injuries.

Quote from WindsorUK on September 19, 2023, 12:12 pm

Will Ornelas be added to the 40 man? LH bat, play all 3 OF spots(?), finally putting up some HR's.

How many of our own kids get a chance next spring? Tirso, Batten, Rosario. Pauley, Valenzuela? Hell, does Bush Jr get a looksie( probably end up in AA to start then move quickly to AAA?)

All these guys play positions of need( utilty IF, OF, C). Much less expensive than going outside the organisation.

I'm with Mr. P in regards to our pitching- NEVER let them see AAA! When they're ready( most likely not next year?), bring them straight to 92101( Petco Park zip code)