Quote from fenn68 on September 21, 2023, 11:10 am

Just suggesting a hypothetical that could really alter thinking:

1. Siedler / Preller are full committed to win in 2024 given the base team … the one they assembled … is in their minds a team that can win the World Series.

2. No real indication that Siedler is planning to materially lower the payroll, so

Based on my 2024 payroll assumptions … without Wacha, Snell, Lugo, and Martinez but including Soto at $30MM .. on a CBA level would be down to about $230MM. This season they are in the $280-90MM range … so down $50-60MM.

If focusing on the short run and willing to gamble on the long run (that seems to be OK with the contracts they have already given) … go to the max to sign Snell (let’s say $30MM/yr) still leaving maybe $20-30 MM for other adds. A Snell - Musgrove - Darivish #1-2-3 would be strong with the current offense. At that point, maybe still keep Wacha at $16MM or one of Lugo or Martinez at a slightly lower price point for #4. Then roll the dice on a player to be the 2024 version of Lugo / Wacha at a cheaper price point … start with a gamble on Avila … gamble on the mid-season emergence of one (or more prospects). That still should leave some money on the table for DH/bench upgrades.

Sort of the go the “star” route with Snell … that does seem to be in their DNA given the other big contacts … and work to support the “stars”.

—————-

Going one step further … looking at 2025 … the payroll already has Soto at $30MM … giving a 15 year deal actually might not require the AAV to go up all that much … so extending him adds to that “star” mentality and Siedler’s preference for stability. Actually could “fund” his increase with the 2025 FA of Kim, Carpenter, Barlow … and maybe the DFA/trade of some more fringe bench types in favor of league minimum prospects …they are a coming.

If you believe in pitching being supported by Snelling, Lesko, et al and offense being supported by Merrill, Pauley, et al … could actually sign Soto and Snell and have the AAV payroll go down in 2025.

Soto - Marsee - Tatis - Pauley - Machado - Bogaerts - Merrill - Cronenworth - Campusano / Salas in 2025-6 would be potent … at least on paper. SP of Snell - Musgrove - Darvish - Snelling - Lesko (or one of the other prospects) also can be championship level.

Maybe a different long team strategy that MIGHT work … but certainly will provide a star studded roster for the fans (both locally and nationally).

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 21, 2023, 12:05 pm

This has been my thinking all along....when discussing keeping Soto.

We have a good Farm system they are just still 1-2 years away.We all agree Preller is a wizard at drafting/signing prospects.

I can't get behind letting a 24 yr old future HOF player leave unless he just won't stay.

We've built the foundation of this team with long term star players.....we now just need to "fill in" with league minimum prospects and hope they are the real deal.It may take one more year for the arms to be ready so 2024 may be tricky.(also why I wouldn't be shocked if Merrill is traded).I don't see any long term high $ contracts for pitching unless it's Snell.So either keep him or go get a couple older,short term guys if you can to bide time until Snelling/Mazur/Lizarragga etc are ready

Quote from BoosterSD on September 21, 2023, 12:15 pm

I can understand all the reasoning behind the resigning of Snell that Fenn laid out. However, my big issue with Snell is he has only been truly dominant in two seasons, 2018 and now in 2023. That is 5 years apart and both were right before big money deals. Does he only truly compete when he knows he will rewarded with contracts, and then sail from then?

This is what makes me nervous about Snell.

Quote from fenn68 on September 21, 2023, 1:40 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on September 21, 2023, 12:15 pm

I can understand all the reasoning behind the resigning of Snell that Fenn laid out. However, my big issue with Snell is he has only been truly dominant in two seasons, 2018 and now in 2023. That is 5 years apart and both were right before big money deals. Does he only truly compete when he knows he will rewarded with contracts, and then sail from then?

This is what makes me nervous about Snell.

Risks in every signing. Padres thought they were taking a minimal risk in extending a 30 year old MVP candidate Machado a player that posted up for every game and less an injury risk as a position player and he basically struggled all season (injury or not). Not a $30MM+ performance. LAA has to regret the deals with Rendon (who also was a younger player who posted every game in WASH) and Trout (younger and posted every day for LAA) both have been injury no shows. Ask Boston ab0ut Sale.

Personally nervous about extending anyone on a long term big money deal … in this era that seems to be the price to pay to retain stars and compete at the highest level.

With Snell, the trade off is winning now and let the future take care of itself … and Snell may be the best SP option towards building a prime time rotation.

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 21, 2023, 1:56 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 21, 2023, 12:05 pm

This has been my thinking all along....when discussing keeping Soto.

We have a good Farm system they are just still 1-2 years away.We all agree Preller is a wizard at drafting/signing prospects.

I can't get behind letting a 24 yr old future HOF player leave unless he just won't stay.

We've built the foundation of this team with long term star players.....we now just need to "fill in" with league minimum prospects and hope they are the real deal.It may take one more year for the arms to be ready so 2024 may be tricky.(also why I wouldn't be shocked if Merrill is traded).I don't see any long term high $ contracts for pitching unless it's Snell.So either keep him or go get a couple older,short term guys if you can to bide time until Snelling/Mazur/Lizarragga etc are ready

Doubt they deal Merrill … he is the long control / low cost player they need to pay for Soto / Snell retention … in 2025 they need him to replace Kim or DH (super utility) or maybe CF over Grisham. If he is traded, it is most logically (based on what sellers want to do) a shorter control, higher cost veteran pitcher probably not much better than Wacha, Lugo, Martinez.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 22, 2023, 5:50 am

Quote from BoosterSD on September 21, 2023, 12:15 pm

I can understand all the reasoning behind the resigning of Snell that Fenn laid out. However, my big issue with Snell is he has only been truly dominant in two seasons, 2018 and now in 2023. That is 5 years apart and both were right before big money deals. Does he only truly compete when he knows he will rewarded with contracts, and then sail from then?

This is what makes me nervous about Snell.

He was dominant in a couple of those other seasons too.....just only in the 2nd half.

Which can be even more frustrating.

I'm hoping,if we sign him that is,he finally figured out what it is we all hoped he would considering his stuff is basically the same.It's been between the ears.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 22, 2023, 6:45 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 22, 2023, 5:50 am

Quote from BoosterSD on September 21, 2023, 12:15 pm

I can understand all the reasoning behind the resigning of Snell that Fenn laid out. However, my big issue with Snell is he has only been truly dominant in two seasons, 2018 and now in 2023. That is 5 years apart and both were right before big money deals. Does he only truly compete when he knows he will rewarded with contracts, and then sail from then?

This is what makes me nervous about Snell.

He was dominant in a couple of those other seasons too.....just only in the 2nd half.

Which can be even more frustrating.

I'm hoping,if we sign him that is,he finally figured out what it is we all hoped he would considering his stuff is basically the same.It's been between the ears.

 

 

Has Niebia, as his new pitching coach, helped him harness his elite stuff / modify his  approach for a more consistent outcome? Or is it all Snell who seems quite attuned to his own body / limitations? Niebia is living up to his reputation as a top line pitching coach given the results with the full staff (compared to others in MLB).

If the better Snell is, in part, due to the work with Niebia … will that stick without Niebia? A risk for other teams if they sign him as a FA (and they will never see that coming). A risk for the Padres if they get a new manager who requires his own pitching coach and Niebia is let go.

Quote from fenn68 on September 22, 2023, 10:48 am

More food for thought ... this time on the future of Grisham. Given the other needs on this roster, don't see the Padres seeking a FA/trade to upgrade CF, so initially probably a hold on Grisham.

However, Padres need better than Grisham who will be making between $3-4MM in 2024 and will be a FA after 2025. Padres do have an internal pecking order of replacements starting with Tatis to CF (if Pauley arrives in RF), Marsee, Bush, Zavala, Head ... one following the other ... at least one option (at some point) will displace Grisham.

Sort of spinning off the minor league forum ... if Marsee or Pauley (Tatis) are "reasonable" 2024 options ... could we see Grisham bumped sooner than later?

Grisham's offense has be plain bad for the past two years. His 2023 line of 200/314/355 translating to a 91 wRC+ and falls #11 among qualified CF. However, most are holding on to him because of his defensive reputation (gold glove) but looking at 2023 his dWAR is just 0.1 and he sits #10 among CF. Overall WAR he sits at #13 with a 1.6. His DRS taps out a only 2. At the point of questioning whether his defense has changed the outcome of that may games preserving a win vs  the lack of offense changing the outcome of games leading to more losses ... too many assumptions in that to make a call but gut feeling he is not saving more than he is hurting.

Could argue the team (in terms of wins) would be better off with an "average" CF who can provide some offense and lengthen the line-up. The threshold is low. Logic is that is is too soon for Marsee (A+/AA in 2023) but he has delivered a strong ability to get on base and shown passible SLG ... we may see him patrolling CF at PETCO sooner than later.

Quote from Randy Manese on September 22, 2023, 2:34 pm

I've advocated moving both Grisham and Cronenworth after the halo effect of the short 2020 season wore off.  Both have gone backwards offensively since then but basically are in the upper echelons of their respective defensive positions, with the latter adept at 2b and 1b defensively.  The extension on Cronenworth will make him difficult to move but I see several options to replace Grisham, assuming Soto is not traded.

The most expensive option is probably signing KBO star Jung-hoo Lee, which would have the advantage of a multi-year contract should Soto depart in FA after 2024.  In this scenario either Tatis or Lee could play a decent CF.  Since Lee is not a big power or SB threat at present, may have a decent shot at him at around 10M CBT average; remember we got Kim at 7M and he had much better power and SB numbers.  Other options may be re-signing Profar, who is a positive club influence, or even Cooper, who can play OF but probably not that effectively.  Profar may agree to something like 7M, while Cooper can be had for less, possibly 5M.  These latter options are shorter term to let our minor league OF options develop, where we could range from Merrill to Pauley to Marsee to Zavala to Bush to Head over the next few years - even Martorella has played OF and I have a dark horse candidate in the uber-athletic Tyler Robertson.  I'd be surprised if Ornelas is still in the mix - had a great year this year but what about the previous 6?  He's been passed as a prospect by all of those I mentioned above.

This won't free up much CBT payroll room but it at least will go toward getting a better offensive contributor to our projected line-up than what Grisham has given us the last 3 years.