Quote from fenn68 on December 27, 2023, 5:15 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on December 27, 2023, 1:32 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 27, 2023, 11:51 am

After looking at the FA SP in the Padres price range ... might have to look hard at the trade route.

1. the best are going to be over $15MM AAV on longer term contracts: Snell; Stroman; Montgomery; Giolito; and Imanaga ... so too pricey.
2. if the objective is to get a "reliable" innings eater with a decent ERA around 4.00-4.25 ... not a lot to choose from based on the workloads the FA had in 2023.
   1. Lorenzen: 153 innings (25 GS), 4.18 ERA is probably the safest option and was estimated at $10MM AAV / 2 years ... given this market should do a lot better
   2. Clevinger: 131 innings (24 GS), 3.77 ERA is estimated at $12MM AAV / 2 years ... we know his injury history and not likely a Preller type anymore ... poor choice
   3. Manaea: 118 innings (10 GS), 4.44 ERA is estimated at $12MM AAV / 2 years ... pulled as a SP mid-season 2023
   4. Greinke: 142 innings (27 GS), 5.06 ERA is estimated at $7MM AAV ... at 40 guessing he will (if he does not retire) hand pick his team ... but note that ERA is not good
   5. Wood: 98 innings (12 GS) ... 4.33 ERA is estimated at $7MM AAV ...
   6. Paxton: 96 innings (19 GS) ... 4.50 ERA is estimated at $8MM AAV ... major injury candidate
   7. Ryu: 52 innings (11 GS) ... 3.46 ERA is estimated at $10MM AAV
   8. Montes ($8MM) and Odorizzi ($8MM) both basically missed 2023 due to injury.

A lot of risk after Lorenzen for the estimated prices.  What is on the trade market beyond Bieber, Burnes, and Cease (if they are really on the trade market) and given the FA the trade price tag is likely way more than we think give the competition for SP.

I think that Lorenzen would be a good fit. And I think I would take a flier on either Montes or Odorizzi, especially if they would take a decent base with incentives, or a two year deal that allows SD to deflect some cash and AAV.

Not sure the Padres can take that risk (gamble) on Montes or Odorizzi … after missing a full season in 2023 not likely be innings eater (and question as to if even effective) and whatever they would be signed for will eat away money for other adds under the limited budget.

Would think since the budget limit is really AAV at the end of the season (for the full season perspective) … Padres would have to keep some room for the incentives actually getting paid beyond the low base. If it is a two year deal (low 2024 and large 2025) still get clipped for a large AAV.

Given the limit budget … should really lean into reliable low risk options.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 27, 2023, 5:27 pm

I wouldn't touch Santana. He's only been good once in the last 4 years and he'll be 38 shortly after the season starts. We don't need another Matt Carpenter.

Quote from JasonE135 on December 27, 2023, 6:00 pm

Quote from brent wolff on December 27, 2023, 4:35 pm

Since we need LH power hitting to balance our the lineup, I hope AJP & Staff are looking at LF/1B Will Benson of Cincinnati.  He was a former 1st round pick of NYM.  We know Cincy is looking for pitching.  Would SP Adam Mazur and a Arizona League lotto ticket be enough to land him?

I would also like to sign LH FA 1B/DH Carlos Santana also.  He seems to hit well in Petco, of course he won't be facing Padre pitching anymore.

What do you guys think about these two possibilities?  Happy New Year to everyone and Go Padres!

According to BTV, Mazur has half the value of Benson currently. Kim, OTOH, has a little over 1.5 times the value of Benson. Perhaps a 3 team trade? The Giants need a SS and are apparently open to trading young pitching for it. Do the Reds even want to trade Benson? Perhaps we could get Owen Caissie back from the Cubs? LH power OF whose bat has gotten better but whose defense and arm are only good enough for LF or DH. Slated to arrive in 2024. Perfect for the Padres. He also has 2/3 the value of Kim currently. There are options.

Quote from fenn68 on December 28, 2023, 6:48 am

A straw dog plan for the winter … a lot not to like BUT tries to consider all four openings while staying within the budget and allowing space (under the limit) to make call-ups / trade deadline adds (current space $26.2MM per Roster Resource):

1. $12.5MM for a trade to get Bieber from CLEV … CLEV wants offense and to clear some payroll, their pitching future is fine … so deal Pauley and Zavala (a Top 100 prospect).

2. $4.0MM for Profar (switch hitter) for LF to start the season … super utility later

3. $4.0MM for Hicks (switch hitter) for CF

4. $2.0 MM for Jankowski (LHH) for bench OF (all three slots)

That is $22.5MM deployed leaving $3.7MM for those mid-season adds that are inevitable with injuries (or poor performances). All should be on 1 year contracts so as not to clog up next winter’s options given only Kim is gone but King and a couple of others go up via ARB. Also, leaves room for the prospects … Merrill, Marsee, Thorpe, Iriate, Bergert, et al to step in at league minimum providing extra for any more targeted FA signing for 2025 or, a chance re-signing Kim.

Not a lot of great … low cost … options on the FA market … either pitching or batting … if for pitching you need reliable quality innings … if for batting need OF.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 28, 2023, 9:16 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 28, 2023, 6:48 am

3. $4.0MM for Hicks (switch hitter) for CF

If you are talking about Aaron Hicks for CF, I dont think he would cost SD any more than league minimum. Isnt he in the same boat as Hosmer? He was cut by the NYY last year mid season, signed on with BAL for the balance of the season. However, his contract went through the 2025 with NYY. So NYY should be on the hook for everything above league minimum, correct?

He is not listed on BAL roster according to their website, and baseball reference lists him as a FA. He should be able to pick any team he wants, and I think SD would be a good option for him.

Quote from fenn68 on December 28, 2023, 9:37 am

Quote from BoosterSD on December 28, 2023, 9:16 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 28, 2023, 6:48 am

3. $4.0MM for Hicks (switch hitter) for CF

If you are talking about Aaron Hicks for CF, I dont think he would cost SD any more than league minimum. Isnt he in the same boat as Hosmer? He was cut by the NYY last year mid season, signed on with BAL for the balance of the season. However, his contract went through the 2025 with NYY. So NYY should be on the hook for everything above league minimum, correct?

 

He is not listed on BAL roster according to their website, and baseball reference lists him as a FA. He should be able to pick any team he wants, and I think SD would be a good option for him.

Forgot about that ... makes him a league minimum value. To understand he stunk with the NYY for 2019 until he was moved in early 2023 under that big contact he earned in 2018. However, in BALT he was good (aberration at 33 or change of scenery).

Unless he has a real character problem ... would make sense from the Padres standpoint even if he became only a bench piece. More money for the others. Would think his agent would want him in SD given the need for 3 OF including a CF ... he would get to play (unless making his contract while not playing is his early retirement).

 

Quote from BoosterSD on December 28, 2023, 9:55 am

Good catch on thinking of Hicks Fenn.

You would think this should be a no brainer for both Hicks and SD. Would be guaranteed playing for Hicks until at least the All Star break and he is not performing, and Marsee proves ready. And SD gets a ML veteran for CF at league min. and gets to keep Tatis in RF.

Round that out with Profar in LF, and we have a pretty good defensive OF for pretty cheap. Although, there would not be very much power in this situation, so would need to find some power somewhere.

 

 

Quote from BoosterSD on December 28, 2023, 10:01 am

With Kiner-Falefa signing in TOR for 2 years at $15M, an AAV of $7.5M, I think that Crone's contract is not as burdensome as some think.

Sure, the AAV is higher and longer (understand that the length is part of the problem); however, Crone has been the more productive player, is a LHH, and better defensively.

Im not saying that it would be easy to move Crone after his down season, but its not like his contract is a boat anchor like that of Hosmer, especially if Crone is back at 2B, and has a good season.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 28, 2023, 10:09 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 28, 2023, 6:48 am

A straw dog plan for the winter … a lot not to like BUT tries to consider all four openings while staying within the budget and allowing space (under the limit) to make call-ups / trade deadline adds (current space $26.2MM per Roster Resource):

1. $12.5MM for a trade to get Bieber from CLEV … CLEV wants offense and to clear some payroll, their pitching future is fine … so deal Pauley and Zavala (a Top 100 prospect).

2. $4.0MM for Profar (switch hitter) for LF to start the season … super utility later

3. $4.0MM for Hicks (switch hitter) for CF

4. $2.0 MM for Jankowski (LHH) for bench OF (all three slots)

That is $22.5MM deployed leaving $3.7MM for those mid-season adds that are inevitable with injuries (or poor performances). All should be on 1 year contracts so as not to clog up next winter’s options given only Kim is gone but King and a couple of others go up via ARB. Also, leaves room for the prospects … Merrill, Marsee, Thorpe, Iriate, Bergert, et al to step in at league minimum providing extra for any more targeted FA signing for 2025 or, a chance re-signing Kim.

Not a lot of great … low cost … options on the FA market … either pitching or batting … if for pitching you need reliable quality innings … if for batting need OF.

Since we are so short on LHH options, I think I would if possible go with quantity over quality for the Bieber trade, and try to keep Pauley. He could develop into a nice LHH 1B option for us.

I agree with the Profar move, and we just agreed that Hicks would be league min v. the $4m that you suggested, so that leaves $3.25M for another signing if needs be.

While I like the idea of Jank, somehow I dont think Preller is a fan, so I dont think a reunion is possible. Plus, if you took the $2M for Jank, and the $3.25M from the Hicks move, could we get Pederson for around $6-7M? Would help in replacing some of the Soto missing power.

And I would add the trade of Kim to MIA for Cabrera and 1 or 2 additional MiL pitching options. Allowing us to get Santana for 1B, and keep Bo at SS and Crone at 2B, and live with the offense of Batten until Machado can return to defense.