Quote from MrPadre19 on December 26, 2023, 5:19 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 26, 2023, 12:30 pm

I am having a tough time trying to figure out Preller’s game plan … basically because have zero indication what he thinks of the ML readiness of any of the prospects and the pitchers added in the Soto trade.

Can’t really guess his priorities under a budget limit but he keeps bringing up adding SP and RP before he even mentions position players which I just can’t understand with only Tatis and Azocar on the roster with ML experience (and Azocar is not a starter).

Either it is just a pure head fake by Preller or he really thinks the core 6 returnees can carry non-high profile (higher cost) OF … so willing to go with Marsee, Profar, other sub-$5MM filler combined with a belief that more important is another #3 level SP with Brito, Vazquez, et al are not there yet and the risk of injury within the #1-3 now is greater than with the position players.

If that is his thinking … maybe we see the bulk of the budget targeting something more reliable than a bounce back for a #3 add. Could one of Imanaga, Stroman, or Montgomery  be in his sights … if end up under $20MM?

So maybe Preller has already decided Merrill is his left fielder?

That doesn’t explain CF….but if Merrill is LF in AJ’s mind that at least takes some of the pressure off of adding one.

Surely he’s still going to add a couple outfielders…we all know he has a plan of some kind.
He probably has 2-3 trades lined up if/when the free agents all find homes.

Remember….he’s playing chess.

I still believe this is true…

Quote from fenn68 on December 26, 2023, 6:20 pm

Not betting on Merrill making the 26 man roster to start 2024 … and very unlikely they move him off SS. Better (but not a slam dunk) LF goes to Marsee … at least he is an OF.

Since I am getting the sense they are not going to spend much on the OF support (spend on a reliable quality SP who will eat innings) … guessing Preller is a bit indifferent to who falls through the cracks and is willing to sign a low end contract under the assumptions the difference (that he can rely on) among those candidates is minimal.

Quote from Randy Manese on December 26, 2023, 9:11 pm

Initially thought Marsee could platoon with Azocar in either CF or LF, however, Azocar hits RH pitchers better than LH pitchers (but nothing to shout about) and hits poorly in PETCO, so tossed out that idea.  In fact, Azocar might even have a hard time making this team even though he is the only other OF currently listed on the roster besides Tatis.  The guy that does hit LH pitchers better than RH pitchers and hits better in PETCO than on the road is ... Jurickson Profar!  Profar, however, is not a CF (although he's played there sparingly) but can be a short side platoon guy in LF and also play 1b, 2b, RF and even 3b.  For about 4.5M, he seems to be able to plug one of the OF spots, at least part of the time, besides being useful utility guy and a great clubhouse presence on this team.

Agree that it is unlikely Merrill will open the 2024 season as the LF; likely a mid-season call-up for the middle infield (unless Kim/Cronenworth is traded earlier).   Still believe most are underestimating Marsee in CF defensively - I say he gets a long look in spring training and because he shows he can play the position, it will be how he handles better pitching that will determine whether he breaks camp on the major league roster.  Come late January, probably a lot of guys like Voit, Vogelbach, maybe even Cooper that are looking for a place to play and willing to take a salary in the 2.5-3.5M range.  For that reason, agree that we should go after the best SP we can but not give up any of our top 7 prospects (Merrill, Salas, Snelling, Lesko, Iriarte, Head and (coming soon) DeVries.  Would hate to give up Mazur, Thorpe or Zavala, but if the pitcher is good enough, have to give up some value to get value.

Quote from fenn68 on December 27, 2023, 1:41 am

Just to set perspective as to why adding a mid-rotation reliable innings eater may be priority #1 even if it really squeezes the budget for position players … consider:

2023 SP ML records for the “incumbent” candidates (total innings in parentheses)

Darvish … 136 innings (136) … 4.56 ERA

Musgrove … 97 innings (97) … 3.05

Brito … 53 innings (90) … 6.32

King … 40 innings (105) … 2.33

Waldren … 31 innings (41) … 4.55

Avila … 26 innings (50) … 4.91

Vasquez … 22 innings (28) … 2.42

The all the main pure prospects have no ML time and have barely scratch the surface of AA ball and are more suited to being at least another half season in the minors. Already assuming that Musgrove and Darvish will be healthy and pitching to their pasts and King can sustain his performance over a full season as a SP … the other four in total don’t even equate to one full time SP innings and their performance is not compelling.

If the Padres want to contend and start winning out of the blocks … can’t really gamble on being able to sort through that group to find two effective SP for an extend period of time  … so, yeh, adding a reliable innings eater who is reasonably effective is a priority … maybe at the elevated price.

Although that may be the priority need … how high will Preller go with a contract and/or use of trade chips … will Preller’s max be enough for the player / trade partner … how long can he wait before “knowing” he can’t get his SP targets and pivot to hitters before those targets are signed elsewhere?

Quote from fenn68 on December 27, 2023, 2:09 am

Roster Resource has the Padres $26.8 under the tax threshold which pretty sure they will start the season under (need room to add players at league minimum during the season for the inevitable IL stints) so they will be on track to finish the season under. So maybe hold back $3MM leaving $23.8MM to deploy on that reliable SP and at least three hitters.

Getting the view that the bench 5 all have to be at (or near) league minimum to maximize spending on the SP and two starting OF. So Higashioka, Batten, Rosario, Azocar, and Marsee might be that group (note they would also represent the 9th hitter in the line-up).

That SP will be in the $10-15MM range (think Bieber at $12.5MM) then leaving about $11.2 MM for the two OF (be it via FA or trade). Shopping in the Profar, Cooper range for OF. Also, keep in mind that we don’t know the timing of Machado returning to the field (so initially takes the DH role) … suggesting they do not spend on a player with limited defensive options … really need OF.

Really relying on the “core 6” position players to come through to make this strategy work.

Quote from fenn68 on December 27, 2023, 11:51 am

After looking at the FA SP in the Padres price range ... might have to look hard at the trade route.

1. the best are going to be over $15MM AAV on longer term contracts: Snell; Stroman; Montgomery; Giolito; and Imanaga ... so too pricey.
2. if the objective is to get a "reliable" innings eater with a decent ERA around 4.00-4.25 ... not a lot to choose from based on the workloads the FA had in 2023.
   1. Lorenzen: 153 innings (25 GS), 4.18 ERA is probably the safest option and was estimated at $10MM AAV / 2 years ... given this market should do a lot better
   2. Clevinger: 131 innings (24 GS), 3.77 ERA is estimated at $12MM AAV / 2 years ... we know his injury history and not likely a Preller type anymore ... poor choice
   3. Manaea: 118 innings (10 GS), 4.44 ERA is estimated at $12MM AAV / 2 years ... pulled as a SP mid-season 2023
   4. Greinke: 142 innings (27 GS), 5.06 ERA is estimated at $7MM AAV ... at 40 guessing he will (if he does not retire) hand pick his team ... but note that ERA is not good
   5. Wood: 98 innings (12 GS) ... 4.33 ERA is estimated at $7MM AAV ...
   6. Paxton: 96 innings (19 GS) ... 4.50 ERA is estimated at $8MM AAV ... major injury candidate
   7. Ryu: 52 innings (11 GS) ... 3.46 ERA is estimated at $10MM AAV
   8. Montes ($8MM) and Odorizzi ($8MM) both basically missed 2023 due to injury.

A lot of risk after Lorenzen for the estimated prices.  What is on the trade market beyond Bieber, Burnes, and Cease (if they are really on the trade market) and given the FA the trade price tag is likely way more than we think give the competition for SP.

Quote from JasonE135 on December 27, 2023, 11:52 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 27, 2023, 2:09 am

Roster Resource has the Padres $26.8 under the tax threshold which pretty sure they will start the season under (need room to add players at league minimum during the season for the inevitable IL stints) so they will be on track to finish the season under. So maybe hold back $3MM leaving $23.8MM to deploy on that reliable SP and at least three hitters.

Getting the view that the bench 5 all have to be at (or near) league minimum to maximize spending on the SP and two starting OF. So Higashioka, Batten, Rosario, Azocar, and Marsee might be that group (note they would also represent the 9th hitter in the line-up).

That SP will be in the $10-15MM range (think Bieber at $12.5MM) then leaving about $11.2 MM for the two OF (be it via FA or trade). Shopping in the Profar, Cooper range for OF. Also, keep in mind that we don’t know the timing of Machado returning to the field (so initially takes the DH role) … suggesting they do not spend on a player with limited defensive options … really need OF.

Really relying on the “core 6” position players to come through to make this strategy work.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 27, 2023, 1:32 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 27, 2023, 11:51 am

After looking at the FA SP in the Padres price range ... might have to look hard at the trade route.

1. the best are going to be over $15MM AAV on longer term contracts: Snell; Stroman; Montgomery; Giolito; and Imanaga ... so too pricey.
2. if the objective is to get a "reliable" innings eater with a decent ERA around 4.00-4.25 ... not a lot to choose from based on the workloads the FA had in 2023.
   1. Lorenzen: 153 innings (25 GS), 4.18 ERA is probably the safest option and was estimated at $10MM AAV / 2 years ... given this market should do a lot better
   2. Clevinger: 131 innings (24 GS), 3.77 ERA is estimated at $12MM AAV / 2 years ... we know his injury history and not likely a Preller type anymore ... poor choice
   3. Manaea: 118 innings (10 GS), 4.44 ERA is estimated at $12MM AAV / 2 years ... pulled as a SP mid-season 2023
   4. Greinke: 142 innings (27 GS), 5.06 ERA is estimated at $7MM AAV ... at 40 guessing he will (if he does not retire) hand pick his team ... but note that ERA is not good
   5. Wood: 98 innings (12 GS) ... 4.33 ERA is estimated at $7MM AAV ...
   6. Paxton: 96 innings (19 GS) ... 4.50 ERA is estimated at $8MM AAV ... major injury candidate
   7. Ryu: 52 innings (11 GS) ... 3.46 ERA is estimated at $10MM AAV
   8. Montes ($8MM) and Odorizzi ($8MM) both basically missed 2023 due to injury.

A lot of risk after Lorenzen for the estimated prices.  What is on the trade market beyond Bieber, Burnes, and Cease (if they are really on the trade market) and given the FA the trade price tag is likely way more than we think give the competition for SP.

I think that Lorenzen would be a good fit. And I think I would take a flier on either Montes or Odorizzi, especially if they would take a decent base with incentives, or a two year deal that allows SD to deflect some cash and AAV.

Quote from brent wolff on December 27, 2023, 4:35 pm

Since we need LH power hitting to balance our the lineup, I hope AJP & Staff are looking at LF/1B Will Benson of Cincinnati.  He was a former 1st round pick of NYM.  We know Cincy is looking for pitching.  Would SP Adam Mazur and a Arizona League lotto ticket be enough to land him?

I would also like to sign LH FA 1B/DH Carlos Santana also.  He seems to hit well in Petco, of course he won't be facing Padre pitching anymore.

What do you guys think about these two possibilities?  Happy New Year to everyone and Go Padres!