Quote from MrPadre19 on December 26, 2023, 10:41 am

Quote from JasonE135 on December 26, 2023, 10:21 am

Damn. I just saw that Kevin Kiermaier signed with the Blue Jays for $10.5 million for 1 year. Well worth it for an average bat, GG quality defense CF. I wish the Padres did that. Oh well, in Preller we trust.

I get it but is he twice as good a hitter as Grisham?

Unless he's really gonna improve the offense I don't think AJ is gonna spend $10 mil for a guy for one season.

Same as I feel about Kepler....and he definitely will hit better than KK.

I think it's get a guy for 2-3 years or play a prospect.

One year guys are not a 2024 thing IMO.

Except maybe in the case of a SP since we have 3-4 guys 1-2 years away.

My hope is we really are considering a trade for Arozarena

 

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 26, 2023, 10:43 am

Kiermaier was the LHH CF (of any quality) on the FA board. The $10.5MM plus incentives is in line with estimates although most seem to think he would get a 2 year deal and took only a one year deal. A good fit for TOR and Kiermaier.

Not sure on the Preller plan for CF … pretty sure it is not Azocar.

IF FA, Bader may be the preferred option over Taylor … should be less than Kiermaier as teams looking for a CF are limited … plus Shildt’s past with Bader may help. RHH is not optimum.

IF internal prospect looks as though Marsee has to be the guy … ready or not.

IF they want to really lock in a CF … would not rule out Tatis in CF and gaining some flexibility in who they add for the corners.

IF a trade … not really aware of any CF being marketed … and if there is one not sure superior to signing Bader or Taylor (short term) without giving up prospects and likely as much (or more) salary. (Note that I posed a deal for CF prospect Scott from STL … but in reality doubt STL would be too interested).

I am not include a blockbuster signing of Bellinger who by himself would eat all the remaining payroll space.

Padres 2024 CF … ???????

Quote from BoosterSD on December 26, 2023, 11:24 am

IF the option is to move Tatis to CF (not my preference), and then trade/sign a RFer. I have recently seen on MLBTR that SD has about $27M before the first CBT level after Matsui.

A trade of Kim, and then another trade for Kepler would be a wash AAV wise for SD. Then we would still have $27M to sign a LF (Profar SH - $4M), leaving $23M. Sign Santana for 1B (SH - $8M), leaving $15M. Sign Pederson for DH (occaissional LF duty) $6M, leaving $9M. Thats gets us one more bounce back SP candidate and really goes a good way to balance the RH bats that we have right now.

Quote from fenn68 on December 26, 2023, 11:51 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 26, 2023, 10:41 am

Quote from JasonE135 on December 26, 2023, 10:21 am

Damn. I just saw that Kevin Kiermaier signed with the Blue Jays for $10.5 million for 1 year. Well worth it for an average bat, GG quality defense CF. I wish the Padres did that. Oh well, in Preller we trust.

I get it but is he twice as good a hitter as Grisham?

Unless he's really gonna improve the offense I don't think AJ is gonna spend $10 mil for a guy for one season.

Same as I feel about Kepler....and he definitely will hit better than KK.

I think it's get a guy for 2-3 years or play a prospect.

One year guys are not a 2024 thing IMO.

Except maybe in the case of a SP since we have 3-4 guys 1-2 years away.

My hope is we really are considering a trade for Arozarena

 

 

 

Think reality of the current Grisham has not sunk in … the gold gloves may be history … so $5MM may be too much for him given the Padres payroll / needs.

Consider the platform year 2023 (CF defensive stats):

Grisham (1276 innings) … 1 DRS / 0.1 dWAR … offense 91 wRC+ vs

Kiermaier (982 innings) … 16 DRS / 8.5 dWAR … offense 104 wRC+

Bader (752 innings) … 4 DRS / 7.0 dWAR … offense bad at 70 wRC+

Taylor (960 innings) … 5 DRS / 3.5 dWAR … offense 96 wRC+

Probably not for the Padres … but Kiermaier can make the case he is worth twice Grisham.

Now Bader had one of his poorest offensive seasons … but his defense held up … so IF his price drops to the $5MM zone … maybe. Same goes for Taylor.

Sort of beginning to think they just might go to Tatis … especially if they don’t see Marsee as a ML plus CF … and the fact that no other CF is near term in the system

Tatis to CF … Marsee in a corner … and the “easier” to land another corner OF (or two) at a conservative price via FA or trade

Re Arozarena  … doubt the Padres have the pieces to land him from TB … remember TB won 99 games last season and expect to contend in 2024 … Arozarena was a major piece … so any trade cannot be just prospects for the future plus they are not big spenders not going to take an offsetting contract (especially long term). Have to start with the proven Kim (one year slightly less salary) but back that with at least 2 Top 100 prospects (e.g. Snelling, Lesko). Even then not sure the Padres would want his future ARB salaries given all the long term contracts (unless they move Croney and Suarez … not likely).

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 26, 2023, 12:05 pm

" Have to start with the proven Kim (one year slightly less salary) but back that with at least 2 Top 100 prospects (e.g. Snelling, Lesko). Even then not sure the Padres would want his future ARB salaries given all the long term contracts (unless they move Croney and Suarez … not likely)."

 

Personally I was thinking it started with Merrill.Yes unproven,but if it's Merrill "and" Kim plus whatever else makes it even they get Kim for '24 and Merrill after.

Three years of Arozarena IMO is worth Merrill.

Maybe Merrill is our starting LF?

Would be nice to know what AJ is thinking about Merrill and Marsee in particular.

Are they definitely starting in the Minors(esp Marsee who hasn't played above AA) or if they play well in ST are they options to start in SD ala Tatis in 2019?

I guess the moves he makes and the length of deals in the next 30-60 days will tell us....hopefully!

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 26, 2023, 12:30 pm

I am having a tough time trying to figure out Preller’s game plan … basically because have zero indication what he thinks of the ML readiness of any of the prospects and the pitchers added in the Soto trade.

Can’t really guess his priorities under a budget limit but he keeps bringing up adding SP and RP before he even mentions position players which I just can’t understand with only Tatis and Azocar on the roster with ML experience (and Azocar is not a starter).

Either it is just a pure head fake by Preller or he really thinks the core 6 returnees can carry non-high profile (higher cost) OF … so willing to go with Marsee, Profar, other sub-$5MM filler combined with a belief that more important is another #3 level SP with Brito, Vazquez, et al are not there yet and the risk of injury within the #1-3 now is greater than with the position players.

If that is his thinking … maybe we see the bulk of the budget targeting something more reliable than a bounce back for a #3 add. Could one of Imanaga, Stroman, or Montgomery  be in his sights … if end up under $20MM?

Quote from JasonE135 on December 26, 2023, 12:39 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 26, 2023, 10:41 am

Quote from JasonE135 on December 26, 2023, 10:21 am

Damn. I just saw that Kevin Kiermaier signed with the Blue Jays for $10.5 million for 1 year. Well worth it for an average bat, GG quality defense CF. I wish the Padres did that. Oh well, in Preller we trust.

I get it but is he twice as good a hitter as Grisham?

Unless he's really gonna improve the offense I don't think AJ is gonna spend $10 mil for a guy for one season.

Same as I feel about Kepler....and he definitely will hit better than KK.

I think it's get a guy for 2-3 years or play a prospect.

One year guys are not a 2024 thing IMO.

Except maybe in the case of a SP since we have 3-4 guys 1-2 years away.

My hope is we really are considering a trade for Arozarena

 

 

 

I agree with you MrPadre. Kiermaier is probably not twice as good of a CF as Grisham, but he was far and away the best true CF on the market. Personally I would have kept Grisham, but I am not Preller. Honestly, I have no idea what Preller's plan is. I guess we will all find out together.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 26, 2023, 1:04 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 26, 2023, 12:30 pm

If that is his thinking … maybe we see the bulk of the budget targeting something more reliable than a bounce back for a #3 add. Could one of Imanaga, Stroman, or Montgomery  be in his sights … if end up under $20MM?

I dont know if any of those three will come in at an AAV of less than $20m. Imananga was the lowest prediction by MLBTR at $17M, Stroman at $22M, and Montgomery (who could have a bidding war happen between NYY and TEX) was at $25M. And many SP predictions have been blown out of the water.

I think if Preller gets another SP, it will be either via trade with some cost control, or off the "bargain" bin such as Wacha/Lugo last season.

But everyone is right, I dont think anyone knows Prellers plan, maybe even Preller doesnt know his own plan.

Quote from fenn68 on December 26, 2023, 1:33 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on December 26, 2023, 1:04 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 26, 2023, 12:30 pm

If that is his thinking … maybe we see the bulk of the budget targeting something more reliable than a bounce back for a #3 add. Could one of Imanaga, Stroman, or Montgomery  be in his sights … if end up under $20MM?

I dont know if any of those three will come in at an AAV of less than $20m. Imananga was the lowest prediction by MLBTR at $17M, Stroman at $22M, and Montgomery (who could have a bidding war happen between NYY and TEX) was at $25M. And many SP predictions have been blown out of the water.

I think if Preller gets another SP, it will be either via trade with some cost control, or off the "bargain" bin such as Wacha/Lugo last season.

But everyone is right, I dont think anyone knows Prellers plan, maybe even Preller doesnt know his own plan.

That does bring us back around to trades for either Bieber or Burnes … think both CLEV and MILW would listen to the right offer to get their payroll down and move a one year control arm not likely to re-sign.

What would be the right offer in THEIR minds ???????????????