Quote from fenn68 on December 24, 2023, 1:30 am

Quote from JasonE135 on December 23, 2023, 9:16 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 23, 2023, 7:25 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on December 23, 2023, 3:35 pm

https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1738703678419120147

Again with the opt outs!

It’s never in the Clubs best interest so why does AJ keep offering them?

Maybe I’m wrong but isn’t it unusual to do these player options all the time?

 

 

Preller only gets these guys BECAUSE he gives them the opt-outs. I mean, who seriously thought that Matsui would sign for $5.5 mil per year?

Throw in AAV manipulation. The opinion was Matsui at 3 years between $28-30MM ($9-10MM AAV). Never really know what the other structured offers were but this gets Matsui those dollars stretched out over 5 years to protect Matsui on the down side of performance but gives him the chance to do better if above average. We still need to see the actual cash flow.

I guess with the pitching prospects in the pipeline … not out of the question that the Padres may want to clear Matsui (and his AAV) to make roster space and payroll space for higher priority moves … basically want him to be great at 60% of expected AAV cost and then be OK with the opt out.

In a tight budget … $5.6MM vs $10MM AAV for the same guy is a good thing even if it comes with opt outs.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 24, 2023, 10:42 am

I get why he offers them…I just question why it’s necessary.

So other teams offered him 3/$30 and he declined for 5/$28 with opt outs?

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 24, 2023, 11:41 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 24, 2023, 10:42 am

I get why he offers them…I just question why it’s necessary.

So other teams offered him 3/$30 and he declined for 5/$28 with opt outs?

 

Guessing that no teams were offering that 3/$30 … maybe not the 3 / probably not the $30MM. (Can debate why). We probably should wait to see what he gets in the first 3 years before we draw any conclusions. If the deal is front loaded that may make it clear that this is an AAV dodge coupled with a weaker set of offers than was expected.

Other clubs may have only been offering 2 years guaranteed and club options for $7-8MM per. Some value then getting $28MM guaranteed if the arm blows out (or just a mediocre performance) with still the opportunity if really good to hit FA after 3 years.

My assumption is always that the player (agent) take the best offer for them based on their view of the market and their future.

Quote from Randy Manese on December 24, 2023, 12:11 pm

I'm just celebrating the fact that Preller was able to get what seems to be an above average LH RP for the CBT that he did.  In 3 years, who knows what the Padres' pitching staff will look like but if Matsui is close to what he was in Japan, that will be very good for the Padres!  Merry Christmas!

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 24, 2023, 2:14 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 24, 2023, 11:41 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 24, 2023, 10:42 am

I get why he offers them…I just question why it’s necessary.

So other teams offered him 3/$30 and he declined for 5/$28 with opt outs?

 

Guessing that no teams were offering that 3/$30 … maybe not the 3 / probably not the $30MM. (Can debate why). We probably should wait to see what he gets in the first 3 years before we draw any conclusions. If the deal is front loaded that may make it clear that this is an AAV dodge coupled with a weaker set of offers than was expected.

Other clubs may have only been offering 2 years guaranteed and club options for $7-8MM per. Some value then getting $28MM guaranteed if the arm blows out (or just a mediocre performance) with still the opportunity if really good to hit FA after 3 years.

My assumption is always that the player (agent) take the best offer for them based on their view of the market and their future.

Then there’s no reason to add the players option.

I just hate em…if the player sucks your stuck with them like Carpenter…if they’re good you lose them (like half our rotation)or have to pay them more to stay.Have to believe we can get a player with our one….seems awful rare for this team though.

Quote from JasonE135 on December 24, 2023, 4:48 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 24, 2023, 10:42 am

I get why he offers them…I just question why it’s necessary.

So other teams offered him 3/$30 and he declined for 5/$28 with opt outs?

 

I am guessing that other teams offered him 3 years for$15-$18 million to 5 years for $25-$30 million. The Padres offer 5 years for $28 million with opt outs after the 3rd and 4th years. In that case, the Padres offer is best. Do well? Opt out after 3 years. Do badly? Opt in and get your extra 2 years.

Without the opt outs he takes 3 for $18 million or 5 for $30 million. I guess Matsui wanted that safety in case it doesn't work out.

I guess Preller would rather get him at $5.5 million per year, with a $10 million risk of he stinks, than let him go to another team. I agree. It doesn't always work out, but it is worth the risk. I expect him to provide far more than $5.5 million value per year.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 24, 2023, 4:58 pm

Its sounds as if CWS and CIN have exchanged names in a Cease trade. CWS is looking to get from CIN, Rhett Lowder, Edwin Arroyo, Connor Phillips, and at least one more prospect perhaps Chase Petty.

Thats 4 of CIN top 10 prospects, including 3 SP prospects and their top SS prospect.

Now, I am not overly familiar with team prospect rankings, so I did look at BTV. Now they do not rank these players anywhere near as high as Merrill on his own, so it may not take as many prospects IF Merrill is included, but then Merrill would no longer be in SD plans down the road. But with Bo and Crone in longer term deals, and SD potentially signing De Vries maybe we could live with the trading of Merrill.

Quote from fenn68 on December 24, 2023, 5:30 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on December 24, 2023, 4:58 pm

Its sounds as if CWS and CIN have exchanged names in a Cease trade. CWS is looking to get from CIN, Rhett Lowder, Edwin Arroyo, Connor Phillips, and at least one more prospect perhaps Chase Petty.

Thats 4 of CIN top 10 prospects, including 3 SP prospects and their top SS prospect.

Now, I am not overly familiar with team prospect rankings, so I did look at BTV. Now they do not rank these players anywhere near as high as Merrill on his own, so it may not take as many prospects IF Merrill is included, but then Merrill would no longer be in SD plans down the road. But with Bo and Crone in longer term deals, and SD potentially signing De Vries maybe we could live with the trading of Merrill.

On some list the first three are overall Top 100 … so the demand is quite high. (Doubt anyone pays that).

Actually not sure why everyone is so fascinated with Cease (yes great stuff but production?) He has had only one dominating season (2022 with a  2.20 ERA) but in 2023 faded to a 4.58 ERA and a career > 4.00 ERA. Only 2 control years and expected an $8.8MM arb decision.

Since I expect Kim to be gone for 2025 (maybe gone in 2024) … current pecking order suggests Merrill is the SS or 2B in 2025 and Bogaerts / Cronenworth someway fill the other two INF slots. No other upside middle INF near term (and DeVries if signed is most likely 4 years away. I also think Preller will keep trying to move Cronenworth (just as he kept trying to move Hosmer) so he may not really be “long term”. Bottom line Merrill will be a Padres starter in 2025.

Quote from WindsorUK on December 25, 2023, 12:59 am

 

All I want for Christmas is 3 more pitchers, 2 Outfielders, and a DH that can hit!(  read it as if youre singing 12 days of Christmas)

Merry Christmas Friar Faithful.