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OFFSEASON 2023-24
#91 · September 16, 2023, 4:59 am
Not sure how to run any team in the environment of 2023 … don’t envy any Manager or even GM in this era were individual player power / independence rule.
Most fans dwell in the past and really don’t adapt to the new real conditions of today. The get in a hard line old schooler as manager will whip this team into shape theme … that is a dream from the past and the players will not care about any manager’s ranting and raving … paper tigers in this day and age.
What triggered this narrative was my watching the pre-game of an English Premier League match … and the analysts were talking about current power of the players impacting how they are used and the team management has lost a lot of control to the players. Sound familiar? So maybe reality forces us (the Padres) to take an approach that reflects society as reflected in all sports … actually in all businesses (think back to work arguments between companies and employees).
We can get frustrated by the self focused player approached to the game … be it Snell, Hader, Soto, or Machado … but that is not going to change. How does any team minimize that and actually create a team?
One could argue it starts with a more critical evaluation of each player BEFORE they are added to the roster … a stronger emphasis on “character” as part of the evaluation. That may be a blind spot with a lot of the decision makers that focus on stats and naively discount human frailties. The idea that each player will independently perform to their max without regard to other teammates is just not how all humans work … and it does not take much to impact players and hurt performance if they are in an unhappy environment or have to work with player(s) they do not like. If winning, will not look like an issue, but once begin losing the slope of decline tends to be dramatically worse as most go to what is best for themselves.
In the minors … if the organization has the right mindset … they can cull out the prospects that appear to be a future “it is all about me” issue. In the majors, minimizing long term big money deals might help. $350MM / 10 year deals taking the player into retirement eliminates any accountability for a player with an “it is about me” attitude.
#92 · September 16, 2023, 5:27 am
In the Padres situation, I think a couple more issues than just the player evaluations / big contracts.
1. The “relationship” between a player (Machado) and the owner. It is clear that Siedler holds Machado in a special light … and the two have a direct pipeline … cutting out Melvin and probably Preller … likely eroding their creditably / authority with the rest of the team. Apparently with much of the front office wanting to let Machado play 2023 without and extension and, if he choose opt out, Siedler stepped in and engineered the extension, Siedler had Machado in on the trip to evaluate the new design of the clubhouse, and Machado pushed for (and got) HIS coaches in Kirby / Dickerson added (they were a major issue with the other players) and now got Flaherty (his guy) on the staff. Players know favoritism and when that goes to the highest level not going to challenge what Manny wants and that is disruptive.
2. The influence of the Preller and the analytical staff on the day to day running of the team … basically (I believe the speculation) not letting the manager run the team. Again the players know this and basically consider any manager irrelevant. Some rumors suggest that Bochy was a team choice to return (before hiring Melvin) and Bochy repeated turned down offers … knowing the relationship between the manager and front office … not something he wanted as an “old school” manager.
Neither of this issues along with player independence will (can now) be addressed by the Padres … Padres have to hope the existing players return to form on their own since doubt Siedler - Preller - front office - any manager / coaching staff can do much to change them or team dynamics.
#93 · September 17, 2023, 8:52 am
As we focus on the bigger names and what will happen to them this winter … we should consider the future of Scott Barlow and his potential impact some other decisions.
Barlow (31 next season) was a deadline add for two low minor league prospects (pitchers Williams and Rios). He was not having a good season in KC and was not all that impressive in his first three appearances in SD. However, in his last 15 appearances with SD he has an impressive 1.13 ERA / 0.91 WHIP … and in 2021 and 2022 he was very good as the closer for KC. Expect he will get around $6MM in his last arbitration year before FA.
Not likely he gets any kind of quality return if the Padres trade him. Is he worth $6MM vs a non-tender and use the money elsewhere?
If the Padres keep him … does that take some focus away from upgrading the pen?
Looking like a good under the radar pick-up at the deadline.
#94 · September 17, 2023, 4:12 pm
Soto is making the decision on him this winter all the more difficult given his 2023 stat line.
He is now (after playing all 150 games so far) hitting:
Overall: 266/402/505 (907) … 32 HR / 98 RBI … that is very good for a 24 year old or anyone. But if you look at splits:
HOME: 75 games … 221/395/403 (788) … 11 HR / 38 RBI
AWAY: 75 games … 301/416/576 (992) … 19 HR / 54 RBI
So if I am Soto (and his agent), would not be eager to sign long term with SD unless it a premium contract (and only after testing FA). Meanwhile, if I am another club … and pay attention to those splits … I would be more inclined to pay that premium (especially if I am in a hitter’s park).
So this winter there should be a few team that (even for one year) may be calling Preller with some quality trade offers. Would not be surprised if his agent … under the table … suggests that the other team make an offer. The agent would love Soto in a hitter’s park in his base year before FA.
So the Padres … if they conclude they can’t get him extended (or even don’t want to) … are they enticed to make a deal (avoid getting nothing after 2024) or just go for it and pass on the future?
Key point here is Soto’s 2023 has made him both harder to extend while making him even more appealing to others via trade this winter.
Siedler and Preller have a big decision to make here
#95 · September 18, 2023, 12:11 pm
The obvious decision is sell high, buy low. No way Soto is here in 2025. Boras definitely takes him to FA. The offers should be stupidly astronomical. As you say Fenn, bring in a couple( or even 1!) controllable guy( like an Abrams, Gore, Wood, Hassell type) The more young, controllable guys the better.
I don't think Soto helps this team.
#96 · September 18, 2023, 1:37 pm
I assume you mean "because of the cost"?
Because there is no way a 24 yr old with a .400 OBP 30+ HR's and 100+ RBI's doesn't help every team.
I stand by my statement that no team should let a 24 year old future Hall of Fame ,retire the number,build a statue player go unless he just refuses to play for you....and if we lose him because of the Bogaerts signing or the Cronenworth/Darvish extensions then that's on Preller and completely inexcusable.
The ONLY caveat to this is if Soto is "for sure" a clubhouse cancer and the other players just have an issue being his teammate....I don't think this is the case.He seems like a fun loving happy kid that gets along with everyone.Of course this may not be true....but I'd want to know for sure before believing differently.
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Jeremy Hill
#97 · September 18, 2023, 3:15 pm
I have had no sense that Soto is a clubhouse problem … actually seems to be engaging with the other players and normally an upbeat personality.
Actually I think Siedler / Preller would like to extend him … even with all the other high prices / long term contracts in place. However, there are limits … and dealing with Boras suggests that will only happen if they meet Boras’ amount … and that probably is the highest contract (total value) in history.
My guess the total contract value will be targeted at around $500MM (better than the offer from WASH, bigger than Judge’s) and may go a bit lower on AAV to get something like 15 years (until he is 40ish). AAV $33-34MM? I also expect he will get close to that on the open market … has not reason not to try.
So, does boil down to the Padres willing to make that commitment … and if that is too much to bite off for one player (no matter how good) what is best for the team in 2024 and the long term? The balance of one player vs a more complete team … the balance of one year vs the longer term. The discussions with Boras this year probably has clearly indicated what Boras wants and so Siedler / Preller already know the route they plan for the winter (sign, hold, trade) … just not going to make that public.
#98 · September 18, 2023, 3:21 pm
Padres (Siedler) made a PR release that explains a bit of Siedler’s absence for games recently. Apparently he had a medical procedure last month and is still recovering … will not be at any of the remaining home games. He was optimistic about being back to full health for 2024.
Very good man … we hope the best. Always worry since he had serious health issues a few years back don’t know if this one is related or something different.
#99 · September 18, 2023, 5:36 pm
Just to set perspective:
Machado at age 26 signed a 10 year / $300MM with the Padres … after 4 years the Padres replaced that deal with a new 11 year / $350MM … so in effect the Padres have given Machado a 15 year / $470MM (net $31.3MM AAV) deal to age 41.
Soto in his FA year (2025) will be 26 … so a contract at least as good as Machado (for 15 years) is probably a minimum. If the go the 15 at about the AAV on the second deal ($32MM) … Soto would get $480MM … move the AAV to $33.3MM and hit $500MM. At that level, $1-2 MM is not a big deal to the team.
With that perspective … the “ask” for one of the best hitters in MLB at age 26 is “reasonable” … for any team that can afford it.
#100 · September 18, 2023, 5:42 pm
Quote from fenn68 on September 18, 2023, 3:15 pmMy guess the total contract value will be targeted at around $500MM (better than the offer from WASH, bigger than Judge’s) and may go a bit lower on AAV to get something like 15 years (until he is 40ish). AAV $33-34MM? I also expect he will get close to that on the open market … has not reason not to try.
I think that the Ohtani injury might actually be a good thing for SD. Since I think we will see the majority of his contract now based on his bat, with the SP now in some jeopardy. So with Ohtani being 5 years older, and not the potential Ace pitcher, his contract should set the envelope for Soto.
Ohtani signs, and then you have Judge and Ohtani to pencil in the Soto envelope.