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OFFSEASON 2023-24
#1081 · December 21, 2023, 5:15 pm
Quote from dusty on December 21, 2023, 4:45 pmQuote from JasonE135 on December 21, 2023, 12:36 pmQuote from fenn68 on December 21, 2023, 11:30 amQuote from Jeremy Hill on December 21, 2023, 11:11 amQuote from fenn68 on December 21, 2023, 8:28 amSort of thinking around the fringe of the roster here but:
With the trading of Kerr (LHRP) the Padres really only have Cosgrove and Morejon as lefties in the pen ... assuming the Matsui deal is finalized ... adding a 3rd lefty for the pen ... might that allow the Padres to option Morejon to AAA? Depending on ST ... is Morejon as a LHRP better on the 26 man vs whomever is other 13th pitching candidate?
Many have punted on Morejon but no roster problem ... he is only going to make a tick above league minimum ... surprisingly he still has three control years (this would be his last option year). His career has be beset with injuries but the upside remains (maybe as a RP) so without any near term LHRP options beyond Matsui and Cosgrove ... Padres would benefit from him in AAA on a conversion to the pen (may help him stay healthy). Have retain some concern that one of Cosgrove or Matsui will get injured over the course of a 162 game season and might want another LHRP in the mix.
I feel like anything we get out of Morejon is a bonus at this point. You can't count on him at all. Not sure what you mean by conversion to the pen. He's been a reliever for the better part of 4 years now. He's cheap and can still be optioned this year which should be enough to keep him around. It's a make or break year for him. His injury history suggests break is the likelier outcome.
Padres have been using him in the pen basically because of injury / rehab but their plan was still to have him get healthy and be a starter. Just suggesting they just abandon that fruitless exercise and just develop him as a RP (probably is a different different approach with his pitch selection and how he gets ready for games).
I'm sure the Padres coaching staff have their own knowledge of Morejon and what they think he can handle. I think right now that there are 2 open spots in the rotation and 3-5 in the bullpen will probably up for grabs. The coaches will decide what he works as this spring.
I am seeing something of an open competition. If Morejon is one of the best 5-6 starting pitchers, it's possible than he will be a starter. Far more likely is him being one of the 8 best arms in the bullpen in spring training. If he is, he will start the year in the bullpen.
I’m just curious who you have for solidified bullpen spots and how we have 3 spots up for grabs. Breakdown is most likely 9 starters 5 starting rotation members (although could be 6 if guys in rotation have innings limits). Then 5 bench options and 7 bullpen options (6 if 6 in the rotation). That gets us to the 26 man roster. I actually think we only have 1 or 2 spots on the bullpen up for grabs.
Matsui
Suarez
De Los Santos
Cosgrove
Wilson
Then 1-2 spots with a lot of people fighting to make the team.
Kolek (Rule 5 guy who will be given every opportunity)
Morejon
Gillaspie
Otto
Estrada
Reynolds
Jacob
Capps
Brito
Vazquez
Groome
Iriarte
I didn’t include Avila or Waldron because I think Avila will be in the rotation and Waldron just won’t have a shot at a bullpen spot (unless they want him as a long reliever/swing man)
A lot of options for really not that many spots so might be some healthy spring training competition
Almost every team, including the Padres last year, keeps a minimum of 13 pitchers on the 26 man roster. They can keep 14 after September 1 through the end of the season. Last year the Padres went with a 5 man rotation and 8 in the pen, with the 8th being a spot starter/long reliever. So, my guess is:
Starters
1. Darvish
2. Musgrove
3. King
4. Vasquez
5. Avila
Closer
1. Matsui
Setup
2. Suarez
3. De Los Santos
Rest of bullpen
4. Brito (also possible setup or spot starter)
5. Cosgrove
6. Wilson
7. No idea, take your pick
Long relief/Spot Starter
8. Morejon
That is my guess unless the Padres pick up more pitching. What is everyone else's guess?
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#1082 · December 21, 2023, 5:18 pm
Musgrove, Darvish and King are locks for the rotation. Suarez, Matsui, Wilson, Cosgrove, and De Los Santos look like locks for the bullpen. I have Vasquez as the 4th starter right now. He could end up in the bullpen, but I think he's close to a lock to be on the staff in some capacity. That would leave a rotation spot and 2 bullpen spots open for the likes of Avila, Waldron, Jacob, Morejon, Brito, Kolek, Estrada, Gillaspie, Groome, Reynolds, Otto, Kopps and maybe some of the AA crew to battle for.
It seems like Yamamoto is getting close to making a decision. I think that should open the market up fully. I'm guessing AJ will make a move to add a starter and then maybe wait to see what kind of value emerges to further add to the mix.
#1083 · December 21, 2023, 5:33 pm
I am using as a baseline:
SP: Musgrove; Darvish; King
SP/Long Relief: Vasquez; Brito; Waldron; Avila (out of options)
RHRP: Suarez; De Los Santos; Wilson
LHRP: Matsui; Cosgrove
This is 12 … and the 13th really does not have a clear pick …. Kolek (Rule 5 … normally a tough keep if want to contend … he can’t be optioned at any point), Morejon (add that 3rd LHP but actually limited innings over the past few years, can he handle the workload) … any of the other pure RP are really not all that good (baring a surprise turn of the corner). So Kolek vs Morejon?
UNLESS someone like Iriarte, Thorpe, or Bergert squeezes into a #5/6 SP slot pushing someone to the pen and in turn bumping out Kolek and Morejon.
What I can’t yet factor in is the inevitable injury or two that sends pitchers to the IL or precipitate being optioned to get healthy. So, ST should be competitive among the players trying to make that 13th slot and even more so to try to unseat one of my top 12.
Should note I don’t see my top 12 as the best pitchers … but see them as the preferred options on opening day while the others get a chance to prove themselves in the minors for mid-season call-ups.
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#1084 · December 21, 2023, 6:19 pm
Morosi is reporting the the Giants are out of the Yamamoto bidding and Yamamoto has a $300MM offer in hand.
Price for any FA SP that is any good has just gone up. Probably ups the return cost for any good SP in the trade market. Supply is short … demand is high … money is plentiful. Not a great sign for Preller to add a “good” SP and not sure adding another bottom of the rotation type is even worth the effort.
Side: SF must be getting really frustrated as again they are finalists in some of the big money FA (Judge, Turner last year) … and not getting takers. We will see how they do with Bellinger.
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#1085 · December 21, 2023, 6:57 pm
Quote from fenn68 on December 21, 2023, 5:33 pmI am using as a baseline:
SP: Musgrove; Darvish; King
SP/Long Relief: Vasquez; Brito; Waldron; Avila (out of options)
RHRP: Suarez; De Los Santos; Wilson
LHRP: Matsui; Cosgrove
This is 12 … and the 13th really does not have a clear pick …. Kolek (Rule 5 … normally a tough keep if want to contend … he can’t be optioned at any point), Morejon (add that 3rd LHP but actually limited innings over the past few years, can he handle the workload) … any of the other pure RP are really not all that good (baring a surprise turn of the corner). So Kolek vs Morejon?
UNLESS someone like Iriarte, Thorpe, or Bergert squeezes into a #5/6 SP slot pushing someone to the pen and in turn bumping out Kolek and Morejon.
What I can’t yet factor in is the inevitable injury or two that sends pitchers to the IL or precipitate being optioned to get healthy. So, ST should be competitive among the players trying to make that 13th slot and even more so to try to unseat one of my top 12.
Should note I don’t see my top 12 as the best pitchers … but see them as the preferred options on opening day while the others get a chance to prove themselves in the minors for mid-season call-ups.
I did not realize that Avila was out of options. That could be a problem. The Padres used a total of 11 different starting pitchers this year. They currently have 8 pitchers with MLB starting experience, including Groome and Avila who are both out of options. If they don't make the team, the Padres have a total of 6 pitchers with MLB starting experience, one of whom is Morejon, who can't be counted on. The other 5 are Darvish, Musgrove, King, Vasquez and Brito. The only other pitcher currently on the 40-man roster with even recent minor league starting experience is Iriarte. While I am sure that the Padres will add Thorpe and one or two other minor league starters to the 40-man, they are very short of depth.
I think this practically guarantees Avila makes the team, just for depth. I know that his stuff isn't special, but he seems to have performed well when called upon. I'm surprised that he hasn't gotten more starting shots already.
The Padres still need some starting depth.
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#1086 · December 21, 2023, 7:12 pm
Quote from fenn68 on December 21, 2023, 6:19 pmMorosi is reporting the the Giants are out of the Yamamoto bidding and Yamamoto has a $300MM offer in hand.
Price for any FA SP that is any good has just gone up. Probably ups the return cost for any good SP in the trade market. Supply is short … demand is high … money is plentiful. Not a great sign for Preller to add a “good” SP and not sure adding another bottom of the rotation type is even worth the effort.
Side: SF must be getting really frustrated as again they are finalists in some of the big money FA (Judge, Turner last year) … and not getting takers. We will see how they do with Bellinger.
Preller seems to shop for TOR type arms like Clevinger, Darvish, Musgrove and Snell on the trade market as opposed to the free agent market. If Preller shops for starting pitching on the free agent market, I expect him to shop at the bottom end where Yamamoto's contract will have less of an effect. If Preller decides to trade for more pitching all bets are off.
#1087 · December 21, 2023, 7:50 pm
I think Vasquez is the new Martinez.
Opener…..long relief.
Preller is just waiting for the big chips to fall to set the market.
But does he go after a couple bats or does he trade for a SP like Dylan Cease ?
I’d like to see a trade for Luzardo or Cease.
Sign Bader or Kiermeair.
Sign Profar and Cooper.
Also,if price works out….sign Gary Sanchez as DH/C
Campy & Sanchez can DH regularly( couple times a week) after Manny gets fully healthy still allowing guys to also rotate in based on need/matchups/health.
May could all be done under the CBT
#1088 · December 21, 2023, 8:12 pm
Source confirms: Dodgers close on Yoshinobu Yamamato. First: @JackCurryYES, who reported contract will be for more than $300M.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 22, 2023
#1089 · December 21, 2023, 8:47 pm
325m over 12 years plus another 50m for the posting fee. I was really hoping he would end up somewhere else.
#1090 · December 21, 2023, 9:58 pm
So the Dodgers are now on the hook for 2 pitchers with an CBT of 27M each per year. Glasnow, finally reached 120 innings in 2023, 5 years after his last season high of 111.2 IP in 2018. He is now 30 years old and is under contract until 2028. What's the betting line that he even makes it to 130 IP in 2024 and for the next 4 years after that?
Yamamoto has never pitched in the majors but will get 27M for the next 12 years; how many teams would give any pitcher a 12 year guaranteed contract? Position players maybe, but I'm glad Preller has never signed a pitcher for that much money over that long a period.
In the last few years, they've lost to injury - Walker Buehler (TJ surgery), Dustin May (flexor tendon surgery), Gonsolin (TJ surgery), Kershaw (back issues) and Urias/Bauer (domestic violence issues). Plus Ohtani won't pitch in 2024 (TJ surgery). Buehler heading into last year before free agency - wonder if Dodgers let him walk (pun intended) even though he's arguably better than Glasnow or Yamamoto. Pitching arms are fragile plus it doesn't take much of a change in a pitcher's mechanics to go from star to has-been - we shall see how wise these recent signings were very soon and over the length of their contracts.
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