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OFFSEASON 2023-24
#1091 · December 21, 2023, 11:09 pm
Quote from Randy Manese on December 21, 2023, 9:58 pmSo the Dodgers are now on the hook for 2 pitchers with an CBT of 27M each per year. Glasnow, finally reached 120 innings in 2023, 5 years after his last season high of 111.2 IP in 2018. He is now 30 years old and is under contract until 2028. What's the betting line that he even makes it to 130 IP in 2024 and for the next 4 years after that?
Yamamoto has never pitched in the majors but will get 27M for the next 12 years; how many teams would give any pitcher a 12 year guaranteed contract? Position players maybe, but I'm glad Preller has never signed a pitcher for that much money over that long a period.
In the last few years, they've lost to injury - Walker Buehler (TJ surgery), Dustin May (flexor tendon surgery), Gonsolin (TJ surgery), Kershaw (back issues) and Urias/Bauer (domestic violence issues). Plus Ohtani won't pitch in 2024 (TJ surgery). Buehler heading into last year before free agency - wonder if Dodgers let him walk (pun intended) even though he's arguably better than Glasnow or Yamamoto. Pitching arms are fragile plus it doesn't take much of a change in a pitcher's mechanics to go from star to has-been - we shall see how wise these recent signings were very soon and over the length of their contracts.
Before the Yamamoto signing several LA fans seemed to still expect Buehler to be their ACE, and now expect him to be their #2. The problem is that Buehler is coming off of his SECOND TJ surgery. Ohtani is coming off his second torn UCL. Actually, it's still torn. We all know the track record of starting pitchers coming back from their second torn ligament. Also, Glasnow averages 57-66 IP per year. There is a ton of risk in the Dodgers rotation, as you said Randy.
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#1092 · December 22, 2023, 3:30 am
Now I don’t think the Padres will be hunting in this group but they may stlll drag out the SP FA signings … Snell, Montgomery,, Stroman, and Imanga (from Japan) are the four remaining clearly upper rotation SP still on the market … all projected with $20MM+ AAV and in this market likely more.
I could be interesting if there are still four teams that will be willing to pay those prices. NYM has said they were in on Yamamoto because he is “special” but cool on pushing their high payroll up too much. Have to think the NYY will be in the hunt and SF has to be but after that who will go for a greater than $20MM AAV?
Now usually I get surprised on some team that step in at these levels … so something to watch … maybe the last of the four will end up taking a shorter contract to keep the AAV up and hit FA again sooner.
After those four … a lot of warts on the next tier and still projected in the $15MM AAV range. If the Padres want another SP, hope Preller has his sights on a Lugo type that is flying under the radar and waits it out for a low cost signing.
Since I am focused on adding bats (preferably LHH) … I am hoping Preller has successfully concluded that Brito and Vasquez can fill that role. Plus … at least to start the season until the prospects show more in the minors … would not be surprised to see Waldron hold one of the SP slots. Padres seemed to like his knuckle ball and had a plan to change his pitch mix in a way that may let him be a reasonable bottom of the rotation guy. Avila is an option but in the small sample size last season he was much more effective out of the pen than as a SP.
On the trade front … expect Preller is looking for a mid-rotation arm who comes with a low AAV and not sure the Padres have the trade chips (or want to use the ones they have). The “selling” team most likely wants to keep that type of pitcher and will require a pretty steep ransom.
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#1093 · December 22, 2023, 4:26 am
Think the biggest challenge for Preller will be CF and getting a fit within the budget. Getting the LHH for the corner OF/DH seems to have more options.
If not moving Tatis to CF (not my preference) or just going off the deep end with Marsee (who many think is more a corner type) … the who as a FA?
1. Kiermaier … is the LHH … outstanding defense … over the past three season a 100 wRC+ and a 5.7 WAR. However, after Bellinger, he may be the best on the market for CF and should command a 2-3 year deal with a $12MM AAV … that takes a lot of payroll space and makes LF/DH harder to fill. Getting the feel that Kiermaier will be in demand and likely to get a deal well above his value … at least for his offensive contribution going forward.
2. Bader … RHH (so not first choice) … outstanding defense … over the past three seasons an 89 wRC+ and a 5.7 WAR. Most have him costing slightly less than Kiermaier … maybe $10MM AAV. Unclear his relationship with Shildt … both were in STL at the same time … so?
3. Taylor … RHH (no not first choice) … outstanding defense … over the past three seasons an 85 wRC+ and a 5.2 WAR. Projected around $8MM AAV.
All three will eat a chunk out of the available money and if the Padres have a more impactful target for LF/DH do they take a low cost with a Marsee (L) / Azocar CF? Do the add Jankowski into the mix?
4. Jankowski … LHH … defense has faded somewhat from what we remembered ….over the past three seasons an 88 wRC+ but only a 1.4 WAR. It would appear he could be had for well south of $5MM. Jankowski / Azocar CF?
Sort of backing into the bats … rely on the retuning core 6 bats … sign both Profar and Jankowski (should be less than $10MM) … consider Marsee for the 26 man (CF or LF) … and the Padres would have maybe $15MM to deploy on one more impactful add (be it pitcher of position player).
For the record … don’t see any great bargains for LHH corner OF … considering offense / defense.
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#1094 · December 22, 2023, 5:45 am
A long way away but still notable….in 11 years the dodgers will be paying two guys $96 mil per year and my guess is neither will be pitching and possibly both retired.
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#1095 · December 22, 2023, 6:36 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on December 22, 2023, 5:45 amA long way away but still notable….in 11 years the dodgers will be paying two guys $96 mil per year and my guess is neither will be pitching and possibly both retired.
Not yet seeing the cash flow … but Yamamoto has two opt outs (don’t know when) so gives a lot of flexibility to Yamamoto. If he gets injured (TJ) he does not opt out …. LAD on the hook. IF he is lights out and has an opt out in 5 years (age 30) he does opt out to push for a new deal for more than 7 years and well more than his new salary. Remember Cole has a much higher AAV in his deal.
So, LAD could be on the hook for the worst case and Yamamoto has the upper hand on the best case.
#1096 · December 22, 2023, 6:49 am
Any thoughts on Ornelas possibly being in play for OD roster? LH bat, corner OF?
Outside of signing Profar ( absolute MUST!) and hopefully Jankowski( good defense in all OF spots and huge speed), Tirso seems a good possibility.
If he gets the opportunity in ST( no reason he shouldn't. Schildt should know him better than anyone), I think has a chance.
Or...how about trying him at 1B? Left handed, 6'2"...fits the bill?
#1097 · December 22, 2023, 6:51 am
Listened to Feinsand today (NY guy so some better insight on the NY teams) …
1. Sees NYM pulling back for any big signings … so out of the top pitching derby
2. Sees NYY maybe pursuing a trade for a SP and possibly a reunite with Montgomery … but not Snell who does not fit their model. Stroman nor Imanaga was mentioned.
3. Sees SF as the logical spot for Snell … SF has to make a splash and has the money. (I do wonder how Melvin values Snell … he had to work with his quirks … so maybe not that keen on adding him on a big dollar contract for maybe 7 years).
4. Really did not mention any other teams clearly in play for those arms at the contact level.
==========
So, IF the Padres shuffle the cards differently … and maybe Imanaga or Stroman decide to go short term / lower AAV … could the Padres sneak in for a TOR arm.
Stroman is good, ground ball type (should work well with the Padres defensive INF) … but early 30s and somewhat injury prone.
Imanaga is a LHP (good to balance the SP) and 30. Might be a good move to go with Darvish and Matsui … and allow the Padres to hold onto some marketing in Japan to offset what they lost to the LAD signings. If they can get him down to the $15MM range might be a plus. Still some gambling on the lower cost options of the OF.
#1098 · December 22, 2023, 6:54 am
Quote from fenn68 on December 22, 2023, 6:36 amQuote from MrPadre19 on December 22, 2023, 5:45 amA long way away but still notable….in 11 years the dodgers will be paying two guys $96 mil per year and my guess is neither will be pitching and possibly both retired.
Not yet seeing the cash flow … but Yamamoto has two opt outs (don’t know when) so gives a lot of flexibility to Yamamoto. If he gets injured (TJ) he does not opt out …. LAD on the hook. IF he is lights out and has an opt out in 5 years (age 30) he does opt out to push for a new deal for more than 7 years and well more than his new salary. Remember Cole has a much higher AAV in his deal.
So, LAD could be on the hook for the worst case and Yamamoto has the upper hand on the best case.
So the Duds 3 big new pieces account for almost $100 million against the "cap"?
How does that effect their competitive balance numbers? And what happens when they become a 3rd time( or 2nd!)offender? And will it restrict them from spending more?
Not that I'm really worried about the Duds, they of the 1 total playoff win in the last 2 post seasons( and no real season WS championships since 1988) but just wondering if they'll just keep spending until they can buy a winner.
#1099 · December 22, 2023, 6:55 am
Quote from WindsorUK on December 22, 2023, 6:49 amAny thoughts on Ornelas possibly being in play for OD roster? LH bat, corner OF?
Outside of signing Profar ( absolute MUST!) and hopefully Jankowski( good defense in all OF spots and huge speed), Tirso seems a good possibility.
If he gets the opportunity in ST( no reason he shouldn't. Schildt should know him better than anyone), I think has a chance.
Or...how about trying him at 1B? Left handed, 6'2"...fits the bill?
Will he get a look … sure … but given the Padres left him exposed for the Rule 5 and no team selected him for even a look … that tells me that 29 other teams don’t see him as a ML player in 2024.
He is still young(ish) and a full season in AAA may be what sets his future.
#1100 · December 22, 2023, 7:06 am
Quote from WindsorUK on December 22, 2023, 6:54 amQuote from fenn68 on December 22, 2023, 6:36 amQuote from MrPadre19 on December 22, 2023, 5:45 amA long way away but still notable….in 11 years the dodgers will be paying two guys $96 mil per year and my guess is neither will be pitching and possibly both retired.
Not yet seeing the cash flow … but Yamamoto has two opt outs (don’t know when) so gives a lot of flexibility to Yamamoto. If he gets injured (TJ) he does not opt out …. LAD on the hook. IF he is lights out and has an opt out in 5 years (age 30) he does opt out to push for a new deal for more than 7 years and well more than his new salary. Remember Cole has a much higher AAV in his deal.
So, LAD could be on the hook for the worst case and Yamamoto has the upper hand on the best case.
So the Duds 3 big new pieces account for almost $100 million against the "cap"?
How does that effect their competitive balance numbers? And what happens when they become a 3rd time( or 2nd!)offender? And will it restrict them from spending more?
Not that I'm really worried about the Duds, they of the 1 total playoff win in the last 2 post seasons( and no real season WS championships since 1988) but just wondering if they'll just keep spending until they can buy a winner.
Looks as though the LAD are just above $280MM on a Luxury Tax basis and that is without resigning Kershaw … so expect them to start the season over $300MM for tax purposes. Should be in the top tier for penalties.
Can’t see them getting out of that level for some years unless they strip the short term players with AAV and go with a lot of prospects.
On the other hand … LAD are backed with a lot of money … so if they don’t care about the draft picks (doubt they do) they can sustain that spending level along with the cash penalties. Plus that is before even considering the new revenue from Japan from having BOTH Ohtani and Yamamoto. Don’t think the money will be any deterrent.