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OFFSEASON 2023-24
#81 · September 15, 2023, 2:16 am
MLBTradeRumors has a piece that states that a priority this winter for the Marlins is … SS. Rolled out alternatives for them and identified Kim as a possibility (not suggesting anything has been discussed). First, oddly happy that a national type was on the ball enough to identify Kim as a desirable trade target and, most importantly, that he “would not come cheap” (depending on your definition of cheap). Kim only has one year control but a a modest $8MM … and Miami is not a big spending team.
Kim is one of those trade chips the Padres may entertain “for the right price” given long term control over Bogaerts, Cronenworth, and Merrill vs one year of Kim. So is there a potential match. Could be (but maybe not a one for one).
Consider Miami is currently sitting only 1/2 games out of a wild card slot … so motivated given SS has not been a good position for them and no strong internal option. The FA market is weak for SS (and therefore likely overpriced). Padres will need SP for 2024 … Miami has an abundance of good SP … projected to enter 2024 with 5 legit options even if Cueto goes via FA. Sets up a “strength” for “strength” basis for a deal.
No idea who the Marlins may entertain dealing off the ML SP but two candidates could be:
1. Edwin Cabrera … young, 5 years of control, at league minimum fits the Padres profile need and has “potential” but has not delivered at the ML level (ERA over 4.00). How do the teams balance “potential” and 5 years control vs one year control over a proven, successful ML SS? For the Padres guessing Kim is greater than Cabrera. MIA would have to add others.
2. Braxton Garrett … LHP … young, 5 years control, league minimum also fits the Padres profile but unlike Cabrera is already a successful ML SP. In this case, MIA likely sees Garrett as greater than Kim. Padres would have to add others.
Still both could be in play for the right deal.
Then, more on the gamble side, the Padres could look at options out of the MIA farm system (which is not very good with top line prospects). Only one Top 100 type in an A ball RHP who does not fill a need for the Padres in 2024. The one “intriguing” prospect in Max Meyer who as a high 1st rounder a couple of years ago out of College and was out all 2023 with TJ surgery back in 2022. Was good enough to taste the ML back in 2022. Preller has no issue with players coming off TJ … but still lingering concerns on health over the long term. Projected as a strong SP and, if not, a closer type with a strong slider. However big upside and some potential to impact 2024. Probably the Padres view Kim as greater than Meyer based on 2024 needs.
So, Miami needs (and wants) a SS, has an abundance of SP, has a weak farm system. Padres need SP, have SS to move in the right deal, have a very good farm system. Sure looks like they should be talking.
IF the Padres are looking to compete in 2024 … probably not eager to over pay for Cabrera or Meyer even if they get a prospect or two added by MIA. Kim would have more value to the Padres. However, Garrett would be a prize for the Padres but would likely have to add some quality prospects to balance a deal based on one year of Kim. We know Preller has little issue with dealing prospects.
All just speculation … but a route that could benefit both clubs in their quest for the 2024 playoffs.
#82 · September 15, 2023, 6:45 am
To follow up on another post from where you speculated that Preller maybe looking to move on from Grisham, perhaps the following trade works for both.
SD gets Cabrera and Berti. MIA gets Kim and Grisham.
Cabrera improves SD SP and Berti improves the bench. MIA with getting Kim and Grisham solves SS and CF. Now MIA did move Chisholm to CF this season, and has Arraez at 2B, with Bell at 1B. However, I dont think that MIA picks up Bells club option at $16.5M, so they could play Grisham in CF, move Chisholm back to 2B, and Arraez to 1B. And even if they keep Bell, Arraez could be the DH, since his not overly gifted in the field.
SD would need to backfill CF, could look at Taylor as a FA, maybe Bader, of course could move Tatis, then SD would need to fill RF. But options there, and SD has their inexpensive, controllable SP.
#83 · September 15, 2023, 7:19 am
Quote from BoosterSD on September 15, 2023, 6:45 amTo follow up on another post from where you speculated that Preller maybe looking to move on from Grisham, perhaps the following trade works for both.
SD gets Cabrera and Berti. MIA gets Kim and Grisham.
Cabrera improves SD SP and Berti improves the bench. MIA with getting Kim and Grisham solves SS and CF. Now MIA did move Chisholm to CF this season, and has Arraez at 2B, with Bell at 1B. However, I dont think that MIA picks up Bells club option at $16.5M, so they could play Grisham in CF, move Chisholm back to 2B, and Arraez to 1B. And even if they keep Bell, Arraez could be the DH, since his not overly gifted in the field.
SD would need to backfill CF, could look at Taylor as a FA, maybe Bader, of course could move Tatis, then SD would need to fill RF. But options there, and SD has their inexpensive, controllable SP.
Thought about Berti … on a club option for something about $3MM and would be a good bench add. Probably would want to lock in a CF replacement strategy first … no guarantee that any FA option will sign with the Padres (and for what price).
Biggest issue in that scenario is what do we expect out of Cabrera in 2024 … probably the main reason the Padres would want a SP. Clearly talent and with 5 year control a lot of time to get it together but coming off an ERA in the mid-4s in 2023 can they really get the help for 2024 beyond just a body? Probably would be a fair match in a scenario when the Padres are not trying to win in 2024.
#84 · September 15, 2023, 7:37 am
Quote from fenn68 on September 15, 2023, 7:19 am
Thought about Berti … on a club option for something about $3MM and would be a good bench add. Probably would want to lock in a CF replacement strategy first … no guarantee that any FA option will sign with the Padres (and for what price).
Or if you other theory is correct, and both Preller and Tatis see a move to CF as a good move, then SD would need to find a RFer.
Finding a RFer should be easier than a CFer; not much, but a little. Possible options could be Kepler, Conforto, Gallo, Renfroe, or maybe Teoscar Hernandez.
#85 · September 15, 2023, 7:52 am
Moving on from Grisham seems more likely this winter than before. He will not get an eye popping return by himself but might put some other traded over the mark.
One team that may come knocking is the NYY. They have an overall OF shortage and not making the playoffs does not sit well in NY. Bader is a FA (already off the team as he was lost on waivers to CINN) and their prospect replacement Dominguez is going to have his 2024 season delayed due to TJ surgery. As of know doubt they want Judge in CF and Pereira is a rookie CF prospect but a high risk as a rookie.
Grisham is a LHH (good in Yankee Stadium) and gives some ML stability until the prospects are ready. Plus he has a couple low cost years of control. That is a pretty good fit for NYY. Not sure what he generates as a return on his own but if the Padres want to boost options for SP at some point in 2024 they could top one of the NYY Top 100 SP prospects (both in AA and only 22): Hampton and Thorpe. Just not sure how close they are but unlike the Kim scenario … not giving up a strong part of the 2023 team … so can be more flexible on the immediate impact of the return.
Both Bader and Taylor have the defensive skills and their bats are slightly better I guess (not great OBP) but probably around $5MM level players given their 2023 salaries. $1-2MM more than Grisham. So maybe the benefit of signing one and trading Grisham boils down to the impact of the return pieces.
Again would need to lock down a CF replacement before making the deal.
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#87 · September 15, 2023, 9:06 am
Quote from BoosterSD on September 15, 2023, 8:49 amQuote from fenn68 on September 15, 2023, 7:52 amAgain would need to lock down a CF replacement before making the deal.
Or as I also mentioned, could move Tatis to CF, as both Preller and Tatis have mentioned interest in, and then find a RFer.
Yep, I am betting that is a very viable solution in the mind of Preller (not mine though). Finding a productive corner OF (better offense than Grisham) is more likely than a finding a CF (not named Bellinger).
Depending on their view of Merrill and/or Pauley … plopping them in RF may not be worse offense than Grisham provided. Even the re-sign of Profar for RF may be better for the team both on the field and in the clubhouse until the prospects are ready. Ornelas anyone ?
Have to take some gambles if the return for Grisham fills a different team need.
#88 · September 15, 2023, 9:29 am
With pitching a concern … might have to think the the future of Martinez. Has had some rough outings this season yet does sport a sub-4.00 ERA last I looked and has been very useful bouncing from SP - long RP - middle RF - and end of game arm … not easy to get in one pitcher. So has more team value that he gets credit for.
Don’t expect the Padres to exercise the club option (2 years / $16MM per year) … way to much for his productivity. The question then rests on Martinez taking the player option at $8MM for 2024 and again $8MM for 2025. (He is on a $10MM deal for 2023).
He still wants to be a SP … the window is open in SD but it was open in 2023 before he was shuttled for need to the pen by the Padres. Does Martinez believe … as a FA … he can at a minimum $8MM per year for two years and a better chance to start? Does he believe he will not do worse? This is a tough one for him at his age and running out of time for a longer term guaranteed deal.
Does make me think he may opt out creating another hole on the pitching staff … even if only thinking RP. Not sure where the Padres value him … but they could come in to re-negotiate the deal to lock in the 2 years at maybe a bit more (the current $10MM?) and add a new option year (of some sort) to get him potentially to a 3 year deal (or a buyout).
Martinez may not be the be all for everyone one but he is very useful (and decent over the course of the season) and, as with Wacha, maybe they are a bit boxed in given all the potential FA, a FA class with nothing guaranteed better (and not necessarily cheaper), yet the prospects still a year or two away.
Retain Wacha, Lugo, and Martinez does maintain some quality and consistency … don’t have to get a new guy adjusting to SD right out of the blocks … yet still they need to purse replacements for Snell, Hader, Garcia while just upgrading the the lower end of the pen options. Doubt there are that many quality options to add if did not retain Wacha, Lugo, and Martinez .. so as I said the Padres are a bit boxed in.
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LynchMob
#89 · September 15, 2023, 9:52 am
Interesting article about clubhouse problems with the team. It lays a lot of the blame at Manny's feet. It makes it sound like he talks the talk, but doesn't walk the wall. Teammates want him to be more of a lead by example type and he's more of an everybody should handle their own business type.
#90 · September 15, 2023, 11:17 am
Quote from Jeremy Hill on September 15, 2023, 9:52 amInteresting article about clubhouse problems with the team. It lays a lot of the blame at Manny's feet. It makes it sound like he talks the talk, but doesn't walk the wall. Teammates want him to be more of a lead by example type and he's more of an everybody should handle their own business type.
Don't disagree. Manny and Soto are clear to me all about themselves and play to their own objectives. That can be over looked IF they are delivering All Star results on a contender but that attitude on a losing team while maybe under performing is hard to live with. Not sure where Tatis and Bogaerts fall in that spectrum. Hard to change stars with mega contracts and big egos.
I recall some in BALT ... when Manny left ... saying they were fine with that and were tired of his "act". Manny was a star on the BALT team. That planted the seed in my mind about Manny's character. Then the fact that the LAD had zero interest in retaining him after his short run with the team added to the suspicion there was more to Manny than just looking at his stats ... not in a good way. Manny wants to be a presence / the face of the team and pushes that ... if he does not connect with the others the result is not a leader but creates negative relationships.
Soto coming in a clearly saying he does not want to bat #2 and wants to be in the #3-#4 slot. Bogaerts coming in an insisting he will play SS. Wanting that is natural but making the publicly clear suggest not all that much a team player which can rub the others the wrong way. Tatis is hard to tell but before the injury / PED time off he also seemed on his own agenda ... maybe after missing last year due to his decisions he just had little option than accepting the RF assignment.
Disturbing the report that at the "voluntary workouts" quite a few Padres did not show up vs a team like the LAD get in those "voluntary workouts" get almost everyone including Betts and Freeman.
Not going to change them ... and changing the manager will do nothing. Changing the GM will do nothing. Long term problem and no idea how to extract from this issue and can only hope they perform despite the characters.
I am beginning to move my "blame" up the organization to Siedler ... good guy and willing to spend ... but beginning to see his involvement and questionable personnel judgements is more a problem than most think. Seems his undying support of Preller (after little success as a GM of a ML team), and apparently it was his effort that moved to extend Machado ... not sure his involvement in the other extensions or the signing of Bogaerts. Maybe a fan with loads of money has some blind spots with individuals (maybe loyalty over critical management).