Quote from fenn68 on October 11, 2019, 3:41 pm

Quote from David Nevin on October 11, 2019, 1:57 pm

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/padres-disappoint-with-70-92-record-but-rebuilding-stays-on-target/

 

 

Interesting ... always like the analysis of results and somewhat ignore projections (especially detail level) ... too many assumptions and variables.

Having said that, the ZIPS projection on Urias (about a 3 WAR annually from a slightly above average hitting and above average defense) would have him ranked about #9 on the qualified 2B ranking and arguably generating about $24MM annual value on a much lower salary. If that is the case ... why would they trade Urias? Not as though they have that many 3+ WAR players. Maybe IF he achieves that WAR level AND Edwards blossoms into a better option (2 years?) .. Urias is a decent trade chip but now (as a 2B), not so much.

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Side question: does anyone know the logic for the defensive metric? Always bothered me. How can ALL the qualified 1B have a negative defensive metric? On the surface, their standards for the calculation must by out of touch with real players .. and that is just misleading. Similar with OF ... only about 25% of the qualified are positive.

As much as the manipulate data, can’t see why they can set that standard at “average” for that position and create a variance from that standard. Sort of what they do for wRC+ and other.

If you look at at player at 100 wRC+ that implies average. If you look at a 1B with a -8.0 defensive metric he could be above average based on real players. Misleading.

Am I missing something here?

Quote from TatisJr on October 11, 2019, 4:44 pm

The defensive metrics used for 1B have really baffled me since it became a thing. I really have no idea how it works. I did a deep dive a couple years ago in an attempt to understand and still didn’t get it. As of two years ago they didn’t include “scoops” or “picks”’ in defensive metrics for 1B. How is that possible? IMO that is the most commonly important play for a 1B. I thought Hosmer was one the best at picking it in KC. Sadly he hasn’t had that same slickness with glove here.

 

Quote from LynchMob on October 15, 2019, 3:57 pm

2020 Padres' schedule ends with 3 at home vs Dodgers!

https://www.mlb.com/padres/schedule/2020-03

Hope they matter! 🙂

Quote from fenn68 on October 16, 2019, 1:15 pm

D.Smith made a comment (and made it clear he would not expand on it) ... that Ian Kinsler may have role with the Padres next season. D.Smith does have sources.

Player? Coach? Front Office? Minor League manager?

If as a player does avoid eating his $3.750MM contract but would suggest that the Padres move one of France, Garcia, or Urias .... could be the 26th man and the Padres stick with only 4 OF (unlikely).

More likely garners a front office role as the Padres have one with a long string of other ML players with Padre ties.

Just an interesting throw away comment by Smith.

Quote from fenn68 on October 20, 2019, 9:47 am

Some factors that may shape how the Padres approach this winter and the 2020-23 window:

1. clearly Fowler is honing in on a winning season in 2020 (minimum) ... playoffs / or contention to the end (2021) .... playoffs (2022).
2. Preller's contact end after 2022 (expect the new manager getting a 3 year deal ending after 2022)
3. Myers contract ends after 2022 (buyout of 2023)
4. Hosmer can opt out after 2022 but if he does not he gains full no trade rights for 2023-25 (10-5 rule) ... however, in 2021-22 he only has "limited" no-trade rights
5. Machado can opt out after 2023 and only has no-trade rights with 6 teams each year
6. Fowler when he first was introduced as a new owner and be the owner that would be the operational front man with the league, he said he planned to remain in that role for 5 years and step back ... time is up ... will he hold on until the new CBA is negotiated (he is a key in that negotiation) ... CBA will expire after 2021.
7. THIS IS THE BIG ONE: a lot of players' union grumbling about holding a strike ... 2022 season to secure better veteran player security.

Blend all those together and if the Padres want to become winners ... 2021 looks like a key. If things don't play out (and 2022 is strike shortened) ... COULD see a major re-imaging for 2023 with the departures of the new manager, Preller, a lot of the front office, Fowler as a lead owner, Myers / Hosmer gone, maybe Machado gone (or soon to be gone) and the Padres rely on the wave of young internal talent having developed and then carry the team for the future.

Does this add to Fowler's need to do at least one more "big move" this winter to get them into the playoffs in 2021 as a "farewell" to his activism?

Quote from Alex Tamayo on October 21, 2019, 7:22 pm

Shogo Akiyama anyone?

Quote from BoosterSD on October 21, 2019, 7:27 pm

Quote from Alex Tamayo on October 21, 2019, 7:22 pm

Shogo Akiyama anyone?

Just quoted that idea in the LHH option thread. Great OBP and BA, however less than 50% success rate as a basestealer. But thats a small quibble if he can get on base at 37% clip.

Quote from JasonE135 on October 21, 2019, 7:55 pm

I think he is our best available option for centerfield this offseason. Left-handed, high OBP type but most importantly he knows how to work the count. Yes he has some power but that is just an extra really. He is supposedly a true hitter, a guy who knows how to work the bat. He has great defense. Declining but still very good. He would be great for a short contract, like maybe 3 years. Nobody really cares about stolen bases anymore, so I don't see his low % being a problem.

Quote from BoosterSD on October 21, 2019, 8:23 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on October 21, 2019, 7:55 pm

I think he is our best available option for centerfield this offseason. Left-handed, high OBP type but most importantly he knows how to work the count. Yes he has some power but that is just an extra really. He is supposedly a true hitter, a guy who knows how to work the bat. He has great defense. Declining but still very good. He would be great for a short contract, like maybe 3 years. Nobody really cares about stolen bases anymore, so I don't see his low % being a problem.

This older guy LOVES the stolen base. I like the dimension it adds to the game. But I guess Im a nobody, so oh well. 😉 No my feelings arent and I know that my game that I liked as a kid with stolen bases, hit and runs, and people who could actually hit to all fields is dying, but I still prefer the older game. This new launch angle game is pretty boring most of the time.