Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 11, 2019, 11:02 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 11, 2019, 10:52 am

Quote from fenn68 on October 10, 2019, 12:28 pm

I know we have all written off Kinsler for 2020 but I offer a scenario (based on pure financial issue) for keeping him:

Kinsler is owed $3.750MM ... would be dead money paid if he is gone

Garcia should get $1.700MM .. if retained via arbitration

One could argue that releasing Kinsler and retaining Garcia would make the effective price of Garcia $5.450MM (arb decision plus what is owed to Kinsler). Is Garcia worth that? Is Garcia $1.700MM more valuable than Kinsler?

=====

Cut both and replace with a league minimum body? Still owe the Kinsler money ... so is the league minimum TBD player $550K more valuable than Kinsler?

====

Financial choice since clearly there are folks who don’t like Kinsler .. don’t like Garcia ... but love TBD who has done nothing to upset us ... yet.

Maybe more of a discussion that we think at first ... given we are discussing three “fringe” options from a non-contender.

FENN, this is a GREAT point... The Padres payroll situation reminds me of the Federal Budget: vast majority of the $ is already committed to just a few players/areas; it's well below half of the total payroll that's under debate for the vast majority of the roster:   So your question is valid.  Do Pads let Garcia go as "too expensive" not really b/c he is 'alone', but b/c he is combined with Kinsler.

Kinsler has turned out to be a mistake.  But he was signed before Machado, and we were talking about him then as shifting to 3B "once Tatis came up"...   In my mind, I think of the $ paid to him as:  3 MM to him as the (terrible) "bridge" 2B to Urias/vet on bench, and 5 MM as simply being 'part of' Machado's total contract b/c part of the reason he was signed WAS to help address 3B directly or indirectly.  For some reason it doesn't "hurt" as much to just add that 5 MM into 300 MM over 10 years!  "10/305"

The only potential replacements I see in system for LH Garcia are: LH Esteban Quiroz who was OK not great in AAA, and SH Ivan Castillo who was outstanding (league hitting champ) in AA.  I've advocated for Pads to add Castillo to roster even WITH Garcia there, for depth.  But since neither guy is on roster, it would create an additional roster move to add either one.

Bottom line:  Kinsler $ is dead $.  The correct way to acknowledge a mistake is to do just that, and MOVE ON.  Keep Garcia, release Kinsler.  Look for someone mid-season or next offseason to be the low cost replacement for Garcia.

I remenber Fowler saying something about payroll pushing $150-$160 when "going for it" about 2 yrs ago amidst the rebuild.. So if that still holds true we have some room

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 11, 2019, 11:10 am

Quote from David Nevin on October 11, 2019, 10:42 am

I am 99% sure Cole will not be a Padre.

Think about it......"every" team wants him.

They can't all afford him but most can and would for a player of his caliber.

This isn't a position player that rules out half of the league because of where he has to play and half of the rest because he wouldn't be

"enough" of an upgrade.

This is a bona fide Ace #1 that would instantly make every team better.

S.D. has a lot going for it right now but not enough for him to choose us over "at least" 15 other teams who will offer more $$ or

can offer a better chance to win.

Yes i realize we didn't expect Machado either....but even that was more of a 25% chance.

I'm not counting on the 1%.

 

 

I think the chance is higher than 1% but lower than 25%.  DO think the guys signing the LONG deals like Hosmer, then Machado, ARE looking at the longer term big picture... they're committing for a long time, want it to be a place where they'll have a chance to be in it year after year, not "just" W.S. chance the next year.  Not a perfect example, but this year's Giants team might be a situation to avoid:  older vet team with "franchise" Manager in his last year... what happens after that?  Prominent/"Name" franchise vs. Pads, but too much uncertainty going forward?

Pads are clearly a team with a bright future... but it's true it hasn't manifested enough yet with regard to attracting FA's.  This is where a "marquee" Manager might help; FA would know the Manager (probably a minor consideration overall anyway) is going to be there for years since just given the job.   On the other hand a complete unknown like Jayce Tingler might hurt the chances of landing a marquee guy.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 11, 2019, 11:14 am

All rhings considered I think we end up with Stras 5/135... Cole likely gets 7/210... Thats a huge difference for what they each bring... And both improve us greatly.. But we would be wise to go with the cheaper guy here

 

Hell we might be better served adding MadBum + Boyd (combined will make about 45% less than Stras) sure we don't get that Dominant 1.. But we upgrade our SP significantly .. Personally am in the Stras wagon

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 11, 2019, 11:17 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 11, 2019, 11:02 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 11, 2019, 10:52 am

Quote from fenn68 on October 10, 2019, 12:28 pm

I know we have all written off Kinsler for 2020 but I offer a scenario (based on pure financial issue) for keeping him:

Kinsler is owed $3.750MM ... would be dead money paid if he is gone

Garcia should get $1.700MM .. if retained via arbitration

One could argue that releasing Kinsler and retaining Garcia would make the effective price of Garcia $5.450MM (arb decision plus what is owed to Kinsler). Is Garcia worth that? Is Garcia $1.700MM more valuable than Kinsler?

=====

Cut both and replace with a league minimum body? Still owe the Kinsler money ... so is the league minimum TBD player $550K more valuable than Kinsler?

====

Financial choice since clearly there are folks who don’t like Kinsler .. don’t like Garcia ... but love TBD who has done nothing to upset us ... yet.

Maybe more of a discussion that we think at first ... given we are discussing three “fringe” options from a non-contender.

FENN, this is a GREAT point... The Padres payroll situation reminds me of the Federal Budget: vast majority of the $ is already committed to just a few players/areas; it's well below half of the total payroll that's under debate for the vast majority of the roster:   So your question is valid.  Do Pads let Garcia go as "too expensive" not really b/c he is 'alone', but b/c he is combined with Kinsler.

Kinsler has turned out to be a mistake.  But he was signed before Machado, and we were talking about him then as shifting to 3B "once Tatis came up"...   In my mind, I think of the $ paid to him as:  3 MM to him as the (terrible) "bridge" 2B to Urias/vet on bench, and 5 MM as simply being 'part of' Machado's total contract b/c part of the reason he was signed WAS to help address 3B directly or indirectly.  For some reason it doesn't "hurt" as much to just add that 5 MM into 300 MM over 10 years!  "10/305"

The only potential replacements I see in system for LH Garcia are: LH Esteban Quiroz who was OK not great in AAA, and SH Ivan Castillo who was outstanding (league hitting champ) in AA.  I've advocated for Pads to add Castillo to roster even WITH Garcia there, for depth.  But since neither guy is on roster, it would create an additional roster move to add either one.

Bottom line:  Kinsler $ is dead $.  The correct way to acknowledge a mistake is to do just that, and MOVE ON.  Keep Garcia, release Kinsler.  Look for someone mid-season or next offseason to be the low cost replacement for Garcia.

I remenber Fowler saying something about payroll pushing $150-$160 when "going for it" about 2 yrs ago amidst the rebuild.. So if that still holds true we have some room

Henry, I think you're right:     1)  Fowler is 78.   2) Fowler couldn't have made it more clear winning starts in 2020, no excuses.

3)  This is the big one to me:  Once you start down the path of signing Hosmer, Machado... you almost have no choice but to keep going.  If you don't pull out all the stops to win, you shouldn't have signed the other FA's in first place b/c you're wasting that $ to just remain bad/mediocre which you could've done WITHOUT signing them & spending that $.

I think that 150-160 range is THE ceiling; but think it's higher than many (FENN 😉 think is "possible" for Padres who have never gone there.

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 11, 2019, 11:18 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 11, 2019, 11:14 am

All rhings considered I think we end up with Stras 5/135... Cole likely gets 7/210... Thats a huge difference for what they each bring... And both improve us greatly.. But we would be wise to go with the cheaper guy here

I agree.   Think there's a much higher % chance of Strasburg.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 11, 2019, 11:28 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 11, 2019, 11:17 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 11, 2019, 11:02 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 11, 2019, 10:52 am

Quote from fenn68 on October 10, 2019, 12:28 pm

I know we have all written off Kinsler for 2020 but I offer a scenario (based on pure financial issue) for keeping him:

Kinsler is owed $3.750MM ... would be dead money paid if he is gone

Garcia should get $1.700MM .. if retained via arbitration

One could argue that releasing Kinsler and retaining Garcia would make the effective price of Garcia $5.450MM (arb decision plus what is owed to Kinsler). Is Garcia worth that? Is Garcia $1.700MM more valuable than Kinsler?

=====

Cut both and replace with a league minimum body? Still owe the Kinsler money ... so is the league minimum TBD player $550K more valuable than Kinsler?

====

Financial choice since clearly there are folks who don’t like Kinsler .. don’t like Garcia ... but love TBD who has done nothing to upset us ... yet.

Maybe more of a discussion that we think at first ... given we are discussing three “fringe” options from a non-contender.

FENN, this is a GREAT point... The Padres payroll situation reminds me of the Federal Budget: vast majority of the $ is already committed to just a few players/areas; it's well below half of the total payroll that's under debate for the vast majority of the roster:   So your question is valid.  Do Pads let Garcia go as "too expensive" not really b/c he is 'alone', but b/c he is combined with Kinsler.

Kinsler has turned out to be a mistake.  But he was signed before Machado, and we were talking about him then as shifting to 3B "once Tatis came up"...   In my mind, I think of the $ paid to him as:  3 MM to him as the (terrible) "bridge" 2B to Urias/vet on bench, and 5 MM as simply being 'part of' Machado's total contract b/c part of the reason he was signed WAS to help address 3B directly or indirectly.  For some reason it doesn't "hurt" as much to just add that 5 MM into 300 MM over 10 years!  "10/305"

The only potential replacements I see in system for LH Garcia are: LH Esteban Quiroz who was OK not great in AAA, and SH Ivan Castillo who was outstanding (league hitting champ) in AA.  I've advocated for Pads to add Castillo to roster even WITH Garcia there, for depth.  But since neither guy is on roster, it would create an additional roster move to add either one.

Bottom line:  Kinsler $ is dead $.  The correct way to acknowledge a mistake is to do just that, and MOVE ON.  Keep Garcia, release Kinsler.  Look for someone mid-season or next offseason to be the low cost replacement for Garcia.

I remenber Fowler saying something about payroll pushing $150-$160 when "going for it" about 2 yrs ago amidst the rebuild.. So if that still holds true we have some room

Henry, I think you're right:     1)  Fowler is 78.   2) Fowler couldn't have made it more clear winning starts in 2020, no excuses.

3)  This is the big one to me:  Once you start down the path of signing Hosmer, Machado... you almost have no choice but to keep going.  If you don't pull out all the stops to win, you shouldn't have signed the other FA's in first place b/c you're wasting that $ to just remain bad/mediocre which you could've done WITHOUT signing them & spending that $.

I think that 150-160 range is THE ceiling; but think it's higher than many (FENN think is "possible" for Padres who have never gone there.

The fact that we were on "Both" Machado + Harper (payroll would have been $130 in 2019 and $160 in 2020 if he had signed).. Tells me Pads are willing to add.. To that point including a Kinsler in a package or sighting examples of keeping Kingsler but letting Garcia go ..or simply 💋 Kinsler $$ and dfa ing him..are all good questions.. In any case if we ttade Myers and say save $10 mil per +$40 mil (to 150/ 50 mil to 160) .. Could easily land Dickerson + BP arm and Strasburg and still have $12-$20 mil to max out payroll (160) obviously in 3 yrs Myers (assumingbwe pay $10/ Hosmer -$7/ and say Dickerson exp /10ish)..and that adds another $27.. $$ that I am sure gets eaten up by extension to Tatis Jr...and arb cases in the future.. But as long as 3 or 4 of the next wave of talent (Gore/Patino/Edwards/Ornelas/Campusano/Miller/Arias/etc..etc..) Become relevant .. We should be able to continue churning the 26 man eoster maximizing $$ and talent

Quote from fenn68 on October 11, 2019, 11:41 am

Quote from David Nevin on October 11, 2019, 10:42 am

I am 99% sure Cole will not be a Padre.

Think about it......"every" team wants him.

They can't all afford him but most can and would for a player of his caliber.

This isn't a position player that rules out half of the league because of where he has to play and half of the rest because he wouldn't be

"enough" of an upgrade.

This is a bona fide Ace #1 that would instantly make every team better.

S.D. has a lot going for it right now but not enough for him to choose us over "at least" 15 other teams who will offer more $$ or

can offer a better chance to win.

Yes i realize we didn't expect Machado either....but even that was more of a 25% chance.

I'm not counting on the 1%.

 

 

Tend to agree. Teams such as PHIL with stupid money and realistically a shot at the NL EAST next season will go the extra mile to land Cole.

Better chance with Strasburg (if he opts out and does not just sign an extension with WASH). He has looked good this season so should beat this $100MM/4 year deal ... and as he ages ... that opportunity will not last. Should be had with a shorter / lower AAV than Cole. Still not good odds though with almost every good team with money will be also in pursuit.

Was surprised by Machado and Hosmer being signed but with that level of money sunk into to club ... would be shocked if they go that big on either Cole or Strasburg. At some point they need to focus their dollars on strengthen the rest of the 24 man roster and divide that commitment over 2-4 quality adds. (I can be done ... see TB ... see OAK).

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 11, 2019, 1:50 pm

I think any team seriously interested will pay whatever his going rate is.....so it will most likely come down to Coles choice of where to play.

So that's another reason for my dismal outlook on Cole.

Again,S.D. is a great place to play and an up and coming team...but if Cole has 8 offers the same on the table from SD,LAD,NYY,HOU,PHI,BOS,ATL,SF I don't like our odds.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 11, 2019, 1:57 pm

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/padres-disappoint-with-70-92-record-but-rebuilding-stays-on-target/