Quote from fenn68 on December 22, 2019, 5:58 am

Quote from Cptjack on December 22, 2019, 5:31 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 20, 2019, 6:03 am

Sort of counter thinking ... should we be in support of the LAD dealing their elite prospects for only 2-3 years of benefit of Lindor and Clevenger? Basically drain their future causing them an issue as these players (and others) go FA or just get older? Under the current administration paying mega contracts has not been the norm and they have not been bringing in the “big contracts”.

When the SD prospects hit full stride ... Gore, Patino, Trammell, et al ... LAD becomes a shell of its current self and the Padres takeover the NL West and dominate for years.

The problem with this is that the Dodgers aren't hampered by payroll. If we see the luxury tax vanquished like the vast majority of major market fans want in the next CBA. That window can be extended indefinitely.

That will always be an issue but if they use up their high ceiling (low cost) elite prospects in trades .. harder for them to build a complete roster based on signing the high cost FA. Plus they are not going to be the only big money spenders aiming at the high end FA so will not necessarily corner the market on a full array of stars.

Padres will always be chasing the LAD and their finances ... just don't make it easier for the LAD to have an advantage with money and an elite farm system.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 22, 2019, 9:57 am

Quote from onlypads on December 21, 2019, 9:54 pm

Keuchel is off the board.  White Sox 3/55.

So glad we didn't wind up chasing him... not that we would have @ 18.5 MM AAV.  Does he provide stability?  Yes.  But just so little "upside"... really feels like a sucker bet to me.

Will be interesting to see the impact on Ryu's deal this has... hard to see him taking less.

Quote from fenn68 on December 22, 2019, 10:18 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 22, 2019, 9:57 am

Quote from onlypads on December 21, 2019, 9:54 pm

Keuchel is off the board.  White Sox 3/55.

So glad we didn't wind up chasing him... not that we would have @ 18.5 MM AAV.  Does he provide stability?  Yes.  But just so little "upside"... really feels like a sucker bet to me.

Will be interesting to see the impact on Ryu's deal this has... hard to see him taking less.

Given the demand for SP ... he should get at least as good a deal but the biggest hang-up with the potential bidders is an apparent significant concern about his health over the length of any deal ... given his history.

 

Quote from onlypads on December 22, 2019, 10:42 am

Interested to see what happens once Ryu is off the board and whether we make any trades from our SP depth.

Margot is really struggling in the Winter League.  Cannot be helping his trade value.

On the positive side, Cordero continues to rake.  However, he occasionally misses games due to minor injuries.

Quote from fenn68 on December 22, 2019, 10:48 am

I tend to look at AWAY offensive stats to shape my view of the players (takes away HOME park bias ... both good and bad). Not a 100% valid but as a rule of thumb PETCO takes away from even the AWAY stats and clearly hampers HOME stats for players from hitters' parks (Coors, Miller, etc.). Using wRC+ (2019) AWAY for the three new guys:

117 ... Pham

92... Profar

69 ... Grisham

Looking at the returnees AWAY / HOME

62 / 32 ... Hedges (-30 at PETCO)

113/ 79 ... Mejia (-34)

88 / 94 .. Hosmer (+6)

148/151 .. Tatis (+3)

128/  86 .. Machado (-42)

86 /106 .. Myers (+20)

95 / 69 ... Margot  (-26)

101/ 73 ... Naylor (-28)

Actually this group has a pretty good offensive profile in AWAY performance ... pair that with pitchers with a good AWAY profile and should score some nice wins. Then in PETCO benefits those pitchers more ... again a good set-up IF the Padres can get (develop) hitter that hit at PETCO.

Margot and Naylor both are close to being "average" hitters on the road plus Mejia is "above average"... can the hitting coach do something (anything) to change their PETCO approach?

Machado is the big issue at an excellent 128 on the road but a poor 86 at PETCO ... will he adapt after one season experiencing PETCO.

Oddly, Myers is better at PETCO ... why ??????

Quote from fenn68 on December 22, 2019, 11:01 am

Quote from onlypads on December 22, 2019, 10:42 am

Interested to see what happens once Ryu is off the board and whether we make any trades from our SP depth.

Margot is really struggling in the Winter League.  Cannot be helping his trade value.

On the positive side, Cordero continues to rake.  However, he occasionally misses games due to minor injuries.

Not in the same league as Ryu but teams need pitching at the ML level to fill out an effective starting staff ...  so would guess both Lucchesi and Quantrill are "available" for the right price. Pretty good bet that Paddack, Lamet, Davies, Richards get the 1-4 slots and getting the sense the Padres think Gore and Patino are closer than we may think (mid-2020) if someone falters (or gets dealt mid-season).

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Looks to me Margot will be around in 2020 based on his defensive contribution and no quality defense option for 2020. Other teams (see Mets) want to upgrade CF and have not been able to find an upgrade and, maybe only Marte is an option via trade but PITT must be asking for an unrealistic return.

Did a quick look at some defensive metrics and Margot is way better than Grisham (assuming he can hit ML) and light years ahead of Cordero (if he can even stay healthy and hit ML). Considering all the corner options are below average defensively ... need somebody in the OF who might actually catch a ball.

Quote from fenn68 on December 23, 2019, 6:55 am

The Padres have agreed to a two-year contract with right-hander Pierce Johnson, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (via Twitter). The former Cubs top prospect will be guaranteed $5MM over the life of the deal, and the contract contains a team option for a third season. Johnson is represented by JBA Sports.

Johnson, 29 in May, spent the 2019 season pitching for the Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, where he posted otherworldly numbers. In 58 2/3 innings of relief, he posted a 1.38 ERA with a 91-to-13 K/BB ratio (14.0 K/9, 2.0 BB/9). Unlike many big leaguers who enjoy overseas breakouts and return to find MLB deals, Johnson needed only one season of success to convince a Major League club that he was worthy of a multi-year deal.

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Pretty good gamble at $2.5MM per year for 2 years. Johnson was a very good minor league SP through 2016 but did not make the transition to the ML (Cubs / SF) as a RP. So, appears to have the basic "stuff" and IF he made the transition to the pen in Japan ... he can be very useful (at a low cost) as a long man in the pen.

Padres had an open roster spot.

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The key to his "improvement" in Japan apparently was throwing strikes and that earned him an All-Star berth. Mid-90s FB and some quality in his other offerings.

Again, could be high value as a set-up RP on a young Padre RP group.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 23, 2019, 7:04 am

Not that I expected Lindor to take that roster spot but from Lindor to Pierce Johnson is some kind of drop off

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 23, 2019, 7:20 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 23, 2019, 7:04 am

Not that I expected Lindor to take that roster spot but from Lindor to Pierce Johnson is some kind of drop off

 

he was a top 100 spec back in 14/15  #81 (Cubs).. Cubs #7 as well (Baez/Bryant were 1 and 2)...  Maybe another Hand/Yates type--- Pads must like him $2.5 MIL per....