Quote from Brian Connelly on December 17, 2019, 8:00 am

Quote from BoosterSD on December 17, 2019, 7:48 am

I agree with BCon, I think both Naylor and Cordero need to start in AAA. Naylor to work on getting his power from batting practice into the game. And Cordero to prove he can stay healthy.

And with the ability of Profar to play some OF, along with Garcia as well, they both can be "emergency" OFs for a game or two in case of injury, while Cordero or Naylor get the call up from AAA.

Unless AJP pulls off a miracle trade scenario, I think we will carry 4 OFers to start the season. Pham everyday, Margot/Grisham in a traditional platoon, and Myers everyday RF.

And with the difficulties in finding a trade scenario for Myers, and the new manager, I thinks its best to hold onto Myers and see if he bounces back. If he can bounce back to .260BA, with an OBP of .340 and hit 20 HRs, 20 2Bs, and steal 20 bags, then we have a solid RFer, that is not worth the prospect cost to upgrade.

Well, I think both would benefit from AAA, but like Naylor's LH bat off the bench as a PH initially.  Didn't say it directly, but am thinking they could actually flip flop; Cordero in AAA to start, then maybe comes up & Naylor goes down to play every day.   They have so many OF, I'd be surprised if they go with only 4, but you're definitely right that they've got options & could do it.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 17, 2019, 8:14 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 17, 2019, 8:00 am

Well, I think both would benefit from AAA, but like Naylor's LH bat off the bench as a PH initially.  Didn't say it directly, but am thinking they could actually flip flop; Cordero in AAA to start, then maybe comes up & Naylor goes down to play every day.   They have so many OF, I'd be surprised if they go with only 4, but you're definitely right that they've got options & could do it.

I think with Profar, Cronenworth, Grisham, and Garcia we will have enough LHH options for pinch hitting to start the year. With the age of Naylor, think its better to get him daily ABs and get his bat to the level we think it can get to. Then, we can figure out what to do with him, still think he better serves SD with trade value than playing for SD. But thats a different conversation. Gotta get the bat to that point first, and IMO its not there.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 17, 2019, 9:18 am

The A. Garcia comp (2/20 or 3/30= 10 MM AAV) is GREAT news--MLBTR prediction was only 2/12-- and exactly validates my belief that Myers is worth 10 MM AAV.    Garcia had a better 2019 than Myers, which is important... but now he's no longer available.   Eventually that will become true of Castellanos & Ozuna too, at which point Myers starts to look way more appealing.

But man, WE DO NOT NEED TO TRADE THE ENTIRE VALUE OF MYERS' CONTRACT!!!   I don't know why everyone keeps saying/implying that?  I have thought since day 1 that it is massively inefficient to try to cover the entire contract; just have to give up too much to do it.  Stand by belief that a young MLB SP is the best most valuable asset to attach to attract interest & cover more $$...

So to be perfectly clear, I think Myers is worth 30 MM (10 MM AAV).  I think Lucchesi or Quantrill are worth 15 MM.  This is "only" 2.5 MM x 6 yrs (Q) to < 4 MM x 4 yrs (Joey)  AAV, BUT acquiring team has to also absorb their Arbitration year raises.  Besides the obvious of Gore & Patino, don't know if any of the other prospects --even top 100 guys --are "worth" this much $$ in trade... would another team really pay 15 MM for CJ Abrams with 8 AB total in Low A ball?

But whether I'm right or wrong about Joey/Q vs. other prospect/s in a trade, have to ask the fundamental question: WHY?  WHAT are Pads trying to accomplish by freeing up this $?  My original idea before all the trades & $ added, was to dump 15 MM AAV, sign an elite SP @ a discounted 1st year of 20-25 AAV (Naive!).  Thought the improvement of elite SP in vs "OK" SP out would be worth it, & a replacement OF like Corey Dickerson could still be found & afforded.

But the fact that Pads have already spent about 22 MM (net new $) on Pom, Pham, Profar, & Davies really changes things.  I'm assuming they are at, or very close to, their max payroll right now, so maybe options limited to:

1. One or 2 most Trade/FA < 5 MM AAV without trading Myers.  "Sell" prospect with Kinsler, maybe G. Garcia
2. One (ONLY one?) Trade/FA > 5 MM, but have to trade Myers.

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 17, 2019, 9:24 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 17, 2019, 7:43 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 17, 2019, 6:57 am

MILW just signed A.Garcia for their OF/DH .... about $20MM / 2 years (AVV $10MM). A real decent comp for Myers. In 2019:

282/332/464 ... 112 wRC+ .... 1.8 WAR ........... A. Garcia (28) ..... $20MM / 2 years (AAV $10MM).

239/321/418 ....  96 wRC+ .... 0.5 WAR ........... W. Myers (29) .... $61MM / 3 years (AAV $20.3MM).

So, MILW gets 3X+ the WAR for 1/3rd the contract commitment (or 1/2 the AAV).

Makes it pretty clear why moving Myers is a problem.

Comparing a career year to Myers worst year...not fair... Compare their career avgs .. But say Myers is = Garcia.. 3/30.. That means Pads need to make up 12.5 x 3 or $37.5 mil wither in absorption of a contract /$$$ or player /specs

The counter to that is the view of the buyer and "what have you done for me lately" ... and we have in Garcia a 28 year old on an upward trajectory vs. a 29 year old on a two year downward trajectory.

Pretty sure the buyer would tell the Padres ... if you think Myers can rebound to his old self ... you take that risk and pay the money, I will take the one who is producing now at a 1/3rd of the commitment.  Padres would have to pay a lot to shift that risk to another team and cover the production differential in both eating salary and prospects.

Quote from fenn68 on December 17, 2019, 9:38 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 17, 2019, 9:18 am

The A. Garcia comp (2/20 or 3/30= 10 MM AAV) is GREAT news--MLBTR prediction was only 2/12-- and exactly validates my belief that Myers is worth 10 MM AAV.    Garcia had a better 2019 than Myers, which is important... but now he's no longer available.   Eventually that will become true of Castellanos & Ozuna too, at which point Myers starts to look way more appealing.

But man, WE DO NOT NEED TO TRADE THE ENTIRE VALUE OF MYERS' CONTRACT!!!   I don't know why everyone keeps saying/implying that?  I have thought since day 1 that it is massively inefficient to try to cover the entire contract; just have to give up too much to do it.  Stand by belief that a young MLB SP is the best most valuable asset to attach to attract interest & cover more $$...

So to be perfectly clear, I think Myers is worth 30 MM (10 MM AAV).  I think Lucchesi or Quantrill are worth 15 MM.  This is "only" 2.5 MM x 6 yrs (Q) to < 4 MM x 4 yrs (Joey)  AAV, BUT acquiring team has to also absorb their Arbitration year raises.  Besides the obvious of Gore & Patino, don't know if any of the other prospects --even top 100 guys --are "worth" this much $$ in trade... would another team really pay 15 MM for CJ Abrams with 8 AB total in Low A ball?

But whether I'm right or wrong about Joey/Q vs. other prospect/s in a trade, have to ask the fundamental question: WHY?  WHAT are Pads trying to accomplish by freeing up this $?  My original idea before all the trades & $ added, was to dump 15 MM AAV, sign an elite SP @ a discounted 1st year of 20-25 AAV (Naive!).  Thought the improvement of elite SP in vs "OK" SP out would be worth it, & a replacement OF like Corey Dickerson could still be found & afforded.

But the fact that Pads have already spent about 22 MM (net new $) on Pom, Pham, Profar, & Davies really changes things.  I'm assuming they are at, or very close to, their max payroll right now, so maybe options limited to:

1. One or 2 most Trade/FA < 5 MM AAV without trading Myers.  "Sell" prospect with Kinsler, maybe G. Garcia
2. One (ONLY one?) Trade/FA > 5 MM, but have to trade Myers.

 

My current issue with dealing Myers is the ability to find a buyer ... not that many teams are really looking for an expensive corner OF option and if Ozuna and Castellanos takes two more out of the buyers' pool ... demand (based on need) really evaporates.

Even if we think based on metrics and FA signings Myers is worth $10MM AAV .... if there is no demand his TRADE VALUE is zero. How does Preller convince any team that neither needs nor wants a $10MM corner OF for 3 years to deal for him even if they eat $31MM of his contract? Probably provide more than $30MM of prospect value.

With out demand ... just getting too expensive to deal him in 2020.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 17, 2019, 9:53 am

Pretty sure the buyer would tell the Padres ... if you think Myers can rebound to his old self ... you take that risk and pay the money, I will take the one who is producing now at a 1/3rd of the commitment. Padres would have to pay a lot to shift that risk to another team and cover the production differential in both eating salary and prospects.

Myers in a trade we are looking for 10 MM AAV.  No amount of wishful thinking in the world is going to make him worth his full contract.  Even a great season this year may not get him back to 20 MM AAV.  So it's a little misleading to say that Garcia's contract is "1/3 of the commitment" to Myers... that's technically true to the Pads, but not to "the market" that would only take about half his salary.

Myers at 3/30 (=10 MM AAV) vs A. Garcia 2/20 or 3/30 (=10 MM AAV).  Makes them pretty equal in my book.  Garcia did have a better season last year.  Per MLBTR, Garcia got offered 3 years by Milwaukee & others... he wanted to become a FA in 2 yrs.  Relative strength of FA market for first corner OF is a good sign.

I predict after major FA OF's are off market someone will want Myers at 10 MM/yr.  Obviously they will also try to pry more out of the Pads in terms of prospects.  Problem at that time for Pads will be being comfortable with replacing him on our roster with maybe no FA left... at a low enough $ value he becomes an asset for us to just keep.... but tough to trade him at deadline no matter how well he's playing; if we open season with him we're likely paying all or most of 2020 salary.

Quote from fenn68 on December 17, 2019, 9:58 am

IF we assume the RHH OF is Pham - Margot - Myers based on ML time ... not all that sure on the mix for the 1 or 2 reserve OF likely out of LHH Grisham, Cordero, Naylor ... each have at least touched the ML.

It seems we have locked into Grisham as being on the 26 man (and probably the starting CF v RHP) but would be a little cautious. He may have turned the prospect corner with his bat in the minors last season but his limited ML time was still questionable: 279/384/492 (875) at HOME in hitter friendly Miller Park BUT 200/291/358 (649) AWAY ... and he is going to PETCO.

Cordero is playing and doing well in the DWL ... getting those needed ABs. I would not put it out of the realm of possibility that Cordero wins that opening day roster spot as the CF v RHP which history shows he can mash. Grisham may be going to AAA.

For the record, don't think Naylor will get the CF slot. 🙂

However, the Padres really love his hitting upside and would not be surprised he makes the 26 man as the back-up LF/RF/PH ... probably better v LHP than Hosmer. AAA would be fine for him.

Quote from fenn68 on December 17, 2019, 10:05 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 17, 2019, 9:53 am

Pretty sure the buyer would tell the Padres ... if you think Myers can rebound to his old self ... you take that risk and pay the money, I will take the one who is producing now at a 1/3rd of the commitment. Padres would have to pay a lot to shift that risk to another team and cover the production differential in both eating salary and prospects.

Myers in a trade we are looking for 10 MM AAV.  No amount of wishful thinking in the world is going to make him worth his full contract.  Even a great season this year may not get him back to 20 MM AAV.  So it's a little misleading to say that Garcia's contract is "1/3 of the commitment" to Myers... that's technically true to the Pads, but not to "the market" that would only take about half his salary.

Myers at 3/30 (=10 MM AAV) vs A. Garcia 2/20 or 3/30 (=10 MM AAV).  Makes them pretty equal in my book.  Garcia did have a better season last year.  Per MLBTR, Garcia got offered 3 years by Milwaukee & others... he wanted to become a FA in 2 yrs.  Relative strength of FA market for first corner OF is a good sign.

I predict after major FA OF's are off market someone will want Myers at 10 MM/yr.  Obviously they will also try to pry more out of the Pads in terms of prospects.  Problem at that time for Pads will be being comfortable with replacing him on our roster with maybe no FA left... at a low enough $ value he becomes an asset for us to just keep.... but tough to trade him at deadline no matter how well he's playing; if we open season with him we're likely paying all or most of 2020 salary.

1/3 because of $61MM v $20MM ... teams focus on the total contract first and AAV is a byproduct. That 3rd year of Myers is a big stumbling block.

Think the market has set up for the best economic decision on Myers it to hold and clear one year of the commitment.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 17, 2019, 10:08 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 17, 2019, 7:30 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 17, 2019, 5:38 am

With Myers on the roster my ideal OF would be Pham in LF...Margot/Grisham platoon in CF and Myers/Cordero platoon in RF.

Maybe Myers can build some value facing LH pitching and we can move him at the deadline of next offseason.

I think most of us would agree, but the problem is, if we keep Myers, we basically need him to play every day as long as there is ANY possibility of him delivering something close to his contract value either as a player, or via an eventual trade.   Cordero is obviously a way better OF than Naylor, but I think if Myers is on the team, the 5th OF is going to be more of a PH, since Wil & Pham will be everyday guys, and CF is already platooned.

Both Cordero ("rust", missed development time) and Naylor (defense, youth, corner OF experience) would really benefit from playing every day in AAA for at least a few months, but think it's MORE important for Cordero to simply play every day to try to make up for lost time, development wise.   Really his "last chance" to get everyday play in Minors; well before end of year has to sink or swim in MLB in whatever role he's in... but wouldn't start him off O.D. buried on the MLB bench-- just can't develop.

I disagree.

Once the first game is played the goal is to win ball games and how much a player is paid is not at the top of the reasons of who or where or how much to play a player.

Tinglers goal from the first pitch on is to win.

Who cares after that whether Myers is making $20 mil or $2 mil?

Play him in RF against LH pitching only...pinch hit him.

If he performs well it will work itself out and if the Padres win none of it will even matter.