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#771 · December 16, 2019, 7:38 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on December 16, 2019, 3:54 pmQuote from Brian Connelly on December 16, 2019, 1:23 pmMy Rx for rest of Pads offseason:
Trade Myers + Lucchesi to save $$ (15 MM/yr?)
LF: Pham CF: Grisham (L) / Margot RF: Naylor or Cordero (L) / "new guy"
If it only took Luchessi to rid SD of all of Myers contract, that trade would have been made the day after the WS. I was listening to XM this morning, and Jim Duquette said he wouldnt even take Myers at $10M per season. Then they discussed a Myers and prospect deal such as the Cozart/SF trade, and he thought it would take 4-5 prospects to rid SD of his contract. So........probably why nothing has happened so far to this point.
Naylor your starting RFer!! There is NO WAY a team makes it to a .500 record, let alone WC contention with Naylor as the starting RFer. IF he is our starting RFer for more than 5 games next season, might as well just set up shop in the NL West basement again.
Better off just staying with Myers at this point.
Booster, context please...
I've said repeatedly I wouldn't trade Myers for < 10 MM/yr by himself, but also I must've said a million times we do NOT need to wipe out the entire Myers contract. Don't know where that's coming from, but it keeps getting parroted OVER & OVER...
I specifically said on a 60 MM contract it's pointless to add any player or prospect who knocks less than 10% / 6 MM off the deal... which isn't very many guys. And I've made pretty clear my belief that since almost all teams want/need MLB SP, adding Lucchesi or Quantrill to a Myers trade is the way to get the most "bang for your buck" (aside from attaching a top 100 MLB prospect, which will lead to a demonic uprising on these boards.... as it should). The reason that trade "hasn't happened" isn't b/c it won't wipe out the entire contract (I agree it won't), it's because Pads really have to do the corresponding FA or Trade acquisition (the REASON for saving $$) either first or simultaneously, or they could have holes all over the place with no way to fill them.
Don't like Naylor in RF? Go with Cordero. Maybe Margot hits over .200 vs RHP & Grisham can play there more regularly. Maybe someone blows the doors off in ST & makes 25-man. But I didn't flip flop Naylor & Pham b/c Pham really hasn't played RF much & figures to get more fielding chances in LF....
... but don't think Myers in RF & his annual .250 (.100 interspersed with .400) / .325 are getting us to the promised land either... Hence my proposal that Ryu + cheap RH OF lacking power/speed but who can hit/OBP "OK" vs LHP paired with one of our existing LH OF might yield more WAR than Myers + Lucchesi ... just don't tell the team that trades for them 🙂 In all seriousness, the cost to subtract Myers (b/c of other piece/s have to add into the trade) may just outweigh the benefit of just keeping him.
#772 · December 16, 2019, 8:11 pm
Quote from Brian Connelly on December 16, 2019, 7:38 pmQuote from BoosterSD on December 16, 2019, 3:54 pmQuote from Brian Connelly on December 16, 2019, 1:23 pmMy Rx for rest of Pads offseason:
Trade Myers + Lucchesi to save $$ (15 MM/yr?)
LF: Pham CF: Grisham (L) / Margot RF: Naylor or Cordero (L) / "new guy"
Booster, context please...
I did miss where you said to save money. Do you think another team is going to think that Luchessi is worth $15M per year? Because that is what it looks like you are saying, so maybe you can expand on what you think adding Luchessi is going to save SD.
I personally think it defeats the purpose to trade Myers, and not all of his contract. I think dead money is worse than having the bad contract on the team. Dead money will never do anything for you; however, a player could bounce back. Not saying its likely, but possible. But not at all possible if they are not on your team anymore. I dont know about you, but I hated seeing SD pay for Gyorko to hit bombs against us.
#773 · December 16, 2019, 8:17 pm
Quote from Brian Connelly on December 16, 2019, 7:38 pmDon't like Naylor in RF? Go with Cordero. Maybe Margot hits over .200 vs RHP & Grisham can play there more regularly. Maybe someone blows the doors off in ST & makes 25-man. But I didn't flip flop Naylor & Pham b/c Pham really hasn't played RF much & figures to get more fielding chances in LF....
... but don't think Myers in RF & his annual .250 (.100 interspersed with .400) / .325 are getting us to the promised land either... Hence my proposal that Ryu + cheap RH OF lacking power/speed but who can hit/OBP "OK" vs LHP paired with one of our existing LH OF might yield more WAR than Myers + Lucchesi ... just don't tell the team that trades for them 🙂 In all seriousness, the cost to subtract Myers (b/c of other piece/s have to add into the trade) may just outweigh the benefit of just keeping him.
I dont like Naylor in the OF at all. He should never set foot in OF grass again. You are right, we dont need to move Pham for Naylor. Much like it was a mistake to move both Nevin and Klesko for Burroughs, but thats a different discussion altogether 🙂
I would love it if Cordero could stay healthy enough to see what we have in him. We need to know if we can fish or cut bait with Cordero. But because of his health, and lack of playing time we can not count on him either.
So, IMO, unless we can find someone for all of Myers contract. Then we can trade for Marte. It might just be best to keep Myers and see if he feels Tingly this season, and is worth some or maybe even most of his contract.
#774 · December 17, 2019, 5:13 am
I am settling into Myers as the 2020 RF for the Padres and producing at around a .730 OPS.
Preller has been trying to deal him since last winter ... no takers. Beyond the contract at 3 years / $61MM coupled “average” performance ... there just is not a big demand for corner OF and there are much options that can be had cheaper.
If there is no demand for Myers ... getting a team to take him has to be a combination of eating some of that contract AND adding quality prospects. Plus given Myers would not be the target and likely the prospects are ... most likely only non-contenders with money are interested at all ... small group of potential buyers.
Preller is not going to force a deal of Myers since at this point a Naylor / Cordero RF is not that reliable if the objective is to win in 2020. He probably has a “value” on Myers ... a value on the potential prospects he may need to add ... and has a 3 factor sliding scale with Myers then balance the deal with the amount of contract he will eat while altering the prospect package. Likely since they still need a RF ... he has to factor in the cost of a new RF option (prospects / salary) and, simply, the availability of someone he wants.
IF Preller does not “save” enough in contract salary to make a significant upgrade in RF or elsewhere ... not sure the need to save just a small part while giving up prospects.
In 2020, go with the “average” production from Myers ... let him burn off $20MM of his commitment to make him more appealing in a deal ... buy time for the development of Cordero, Naylor, Ona, Olivares as internal RF options ... use the prospects, if needed, to seek alternative upgrades.
Just the removal of Myers will not get the Padres into contention ... and an upgraded backfill is maybe not as easy as we may wish (at a reasonable cost).
#775 · December 17, 2019, 5:38 am
With Myers on the roster my ideal OF would be Pham in LF...Margot/Grisham platoon in CF and Myers/Cordero platoon in RF.
Maybe Myers can build some value facing LH pitching and we can move him at the deadline of next offseason.
#776 · December 17, 2019, 6:57 am
MILW just signed A.Garcia for their OF/DH .... about $20MM / 2 years (AVV $10MM). A real decent comp for Myers. In 2019:
282/332/464 ... 112 wRC+ .... 1.8 WAR ........... A. Garcia (28) ..... $20MM / 2 years (AAV $10MM).
239/321/418 .... 96 wRC+ .... 0.5 WAR ........... W. Myers (29) .... $61MM / 3 years (AAV $20.3MM).
So, MILW gets 3X+ the WAR for 1/3rd the contract commitment (or 1/2 the AAV).
Makes it pretty clear why moving Myers is a problem.
#777 · December 17, 2019, 7:30 am
Then again...Garcia is coming off almost a career year while Myers obviously has not played well the last 2 seasons.
No guarantee Myers rebounds but I think most of us think he still has some "good" seasons in him.
#778 · December 17, 2019, 7:30 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on December 17, 2019, 5:38 amWith Myers on the roster my ideal OF would be Pham in LF...Margot/Grisham platoon in CF and Myers/Cordero platoon in RF.
Maybe Myers can build some value facing LH pitching and we can move him at the deadline of next offseason.
I think most of us would agree, but the problem is, if we keep Myers, we basically need him to play every day as long as there is ANY possibility of him delivering something close to his contract value either as a player, or via an eventual trade. Cordero is obviously a way better OF than Naylor, but I think if Myers is on the team, the 5th OF is going to be more of a PH, since Wil & Pham will be everyday guys, and CF is already platooned.
Both Cordero ("rust", missed development time) and Naylor (defense, youth, corner OF experience) would really benefit from playing every day in AAA for at least a few months, but think it's MORE important for Cordero to simply play every day to try to make up for lost time, development wise. Really his "last chance" to get everyday play in Minors; well before end of year has to sink or swim in MLB in whatever role he's in... but wouldn't start him off O.D. buried on the MLB bench-- just can't develop.
#779 · December 17, 2019, 7:43 am
Quote from fenn68 on December 17, 2019, 6:57 amMILW just signed A.Garcia for their OF/DH .... about $20MM / 2 years (AVV $10MM). A real decent comp for Myers. In 2019:
282/332/464 ... 112 wRC+ .... 1.8 WAR ........... A. Garcia (28) ..... $20MM / 2 years (AAV $10MM).
239/321/418 .... 96 wRC+ .... 0.5 WAR ........... W. Myers (29) .... $61MM / 3 years (AAV $20.3MM).
So, MILW gets 3X+ the WAR for 1/3rd the contract commitment (or 1/2 the AAV).
Makes it pretty clear why moving Myers is a problem.
Comparing a career year to Myers worst year...not fair... Compare their career avgs .. But say Myers is = Garcia.. 3/30.. That means Pads need to make up 12.5 x 3 or $37.5 mil wither in absorption of a contract /$$$ or player /specs
#780 · December 17, 2019, 7:48 am
I agree with BCon, I think both Naylor and Cordero need to start in AAA. Naylor to work on getting his power from batting practice into the game. And Cordero to prove he can stay healthy.
And with the ability of Profar to play some OF, along with Garcia as well, they both can be "emergency" OFs for a game or two in case of injury, while Cordero or Naylor get the call up from AAA.
Unless AJP pulls off a miracle trade scenario, I think we will carry 4 OFers to start the season. Pham everyday, Margot/Grisham in a traditional platoon, and Myers everyday RF.
And with the difficulties in finding a trade scenario for Myers, and the new manager, I thinks its best to hold onto Myers and see if he bounces back. If he can bounce back to .260BA, with an OBP of .340 and hit 20 HRs, 20 2Bs, and steal 20 bags, then we have a solid RFer, that is not worth the prospect cost to upgrade.