Forum
Forum Navigation
Off Season Thread
#731 · December 10, 2019, 3:34 pm
Following the Pham trade, I continue to advocate for a passive posture so the market may ripen.
At this time, I am not sure I unload our pitching assets only to save money by unloading Myers
Agree totally on both points! Assuming we're not the "mystery team" in on Cole 🙂 ...
Our strengths from a trading out standpoint are SP & C depth. With options decreasing for both, I just don't see how it hurts us to let the market for our assets get even better. It COULD negatively impact our ability to 'upgrade' over Hedges, so maybe that specific move--if it's going to happen at all-- would have to happen sooner vs. later. But I think the smarter play is to just be patient & try to let the market drive Hedges' value up, not "force" the move for a new starter with Mejia in hand.
I've posted repeatedly best way to lower $ owed to Myers is to attach young MLB SP; but that only makes sense if that SP has been "displaced" by a better mythical TOR SP. Would NOT include Joey or Q now in a trade b/c we are not getting that guy, unless there was a corresponding trade to do so (& teams signing FA SP does remove competition for these possible trades that likely already only have a few teams like us in position with trade assets, $, etc to do them). J & Q are the clear #5/6 SP's now, and the other prospects ahead of & behind them in pecking order all need to be in Minors to keep developing as SP. In other words, our Opening Day depth is nowhere near as good as our midseason depth projects to be.... so J & Q may be more safely "trade-able" & in even higher demand at deadline.
I GET that attaching a prospect/s to Myers increases his appeal to more teams. And obviously he's not worth 20 MM. But I don't get discounting him down below 10 MM AAV if Ozuna is worth 15 MM AAV (or more?) with a Q.O. attached... let Ozuna & Castellanos (rising) sign, and if you can't get 50% of Myers salary covered "just" for him, just hold him; don't add 2-3 prospects to get someone to take him @ 10 MM!
#732 · December 10, 2019, 3:37 pm
Quote from fenn68 on December 10, 2019, 3:05 pmI guess it is good to be SF with money ... they just also signed Kevin Gausman for 1 year at $9MM plus incentives. Last season a sharp 5.72 ERA and a -0.1 WAR.
Don't under estimate the value of "marginal arms" these days.
Breaking news... FA Robbie Erlin gets 3 yrs, 45 MM .... 🙂
Seriously, the way market is going for SP fully expect Erlin to get more than the 2 MM arb projection we non-tendered him over.
#733 · December 10, 2019, 3:43 pm
Quote from fenn68 on December 10, 2019, 3:00 pmThe Giants have acquired infielder Zack Cozart and shortstop prospect Will Wilsonfrom the Angels for cash considerations, Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times reports.
====
Angels just give up their #1 pick in the 2019 draft (#15 overall) to rid themselves of the final $13MM of Cozart's disastrous contract. On the flip side SF just "bought" that pick for $13MM.
Note: Wilson is a college guy that has yet to play full season ... so a few years out.
====
More salary room for LAA to sign either Cole or Rendon and maybe an indication that they will consider moving prospects (back to Marsh here) for upgrading the ML team now.
Angels (weak system) #4 prospect.... 50 grade. RH SS. 40 Run grade: 0 S.B...
Cozart must be worth SOMEthing, b/c this doesn't look like a prospect worth twice what Gore signed for...
No more LH OF prospects! (Marsh)
#734 · December 10, 2019, 3:57 pm
Quote from Brian Connelly on December 10, 2019, 3:43 pmQuote from fenn68 on December 10, 2019, 3:00 pmThe Giants have acquired infielder Zack Cozart and shortstop prospect Will Wilsonfrom the Angels for cash considerations, Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times reports.
====
Angels just give up their #1 pick in the 2019 draft (#15 overall) to rid themselves of the final $13MM of Cozart's disastrous contract. On the flip side SF just "bought" that pick for $13MM.
Note: Wilson is a college guy that has yet to play full season ... so a few years out.
====
More salary room for LAA to sign either Cole or Rendon and maybe an indication that they will consider moving prospects (back to Marsh here) for upgrading the ML team now.
Angels (weak system) #4 prospect.... 50 grade. RH SS. 40 Run grade: 0 S.B...
Cozart must be worth SOMEthing, b/c this doesn't look like a prospect worth twice what Gore signed for...
I would still put Kinsler over Cozart (ugly and injured past two seasons) ... maybe a BIG flip gamble but adding to a poor farm system had to be the driver. Agree that the scouting on Wilson does not scream upside but apparently both LAA (using the 15th pick in the draft) and SF must see him sticking at SS.
SF makes marginal SP more valuable via trade by signing Gausman and now makes marginal prospects more valuable via the Cozart deal.
Preller will be sending a big thank you note to SF since the Padres have an abundance of marginal SP prospects that logically just jumped in trade value.
#735 · December 10, 2019, 4:13 pm
Padres are trying to swing a deal for Merrifield according to Mark Feinsand MLB.com. Merrifield would definitely provide a big boost to the offense. Between Merrifield and Profar, Tingler would have some versatility to work with when penciling lineups.
#736 · December 10, 2019, 4:15 pm
I will be honest, the thing I am most shocked/disappointed is with Hosmer, is the OBP. I thought he was a more discerning eye than what has shown in SD. And the glove was shakier last year, so hopefully a bounce back year for Hosmer is in store for us in 2020.
Re Hosmer: Nitpicking fist: His contract-- what he's actually being paid in '20 (& 21, 22) is 20 MM. The "21" reflects prorating his 5 MM signing bonus already fully paid over the 1st 5 yrs. Minor but relevant...
I think what's shocked the Padres is how the OPS vs. LHP has just completely fallen off a cliff. After 2 years Avg WAY < .600 you CAN NOT bat Hosmer cleanup vs LHP... frankly shouldn't be in lineup, but if so, has to be #5 at best. Loved the way Renfroe & even Myers handled adversity last year; no excuses & looked in the mirror. Hedges IMO was the absolute opposite; entitled, no ownership of being literally MLB's worst regular offensive position player. "Great guy" Hosmer was somewhere in between freaking mailing it in in Sept... Needs to look in the mirror & lead by example as the "winner" he's supposed to be; you sit vs LHP until you, like every player on the field, earns the right to the playing time by performance (getting hot vs RHP).
He's not the "ideal" cleanup hitter with his relatively low power and horrible launch angle; but he does tend to do well with guys on base, which SO many Pads don't. Mr. P, we "have" a better # 4 hitter. His name is Tatis or Machado! They are the only guys left with 30+ HR potential. But too good to move down relative to rest of roster. Solution is to add a guy at top like Marte to push them down. Imagine maybe Marte, Pham, Tatis, Machado, Hosmer.... Marte's a reverse split guy; hits RHP better! 1st 3 guys would all be 20/20 capable, Tatis maybe 30/30! That lineup might be able to jump on SP's and either drive them crazy small ball, SB, hit & run, to scratch out a run... or blow an inning open & jump to a lead for once!
This is the last year of Hosmer's no-trade; next year it becomes limited. If he doesn't bounce back this season with something approaching his 2017 season that prompted us to sign him in first place, think we're talking about trying to trade/dump HIS tough 2/40 or (player opt out) 5/79 contract this time next year!
#737 · December 11, 2019, 6:04 pm
Some of these signings....all really,are making our deals seem even better.
Blake Treinen to the Dodgers for 1/$10 mil sure makes the Pomeranz signing look better.Yes it’s only a 1 year commitment....but $10 mil after a horrible season last year for Treinen?
Then Tanner Roark gets 2yrs/$24 mil from Tor.
He was very average last season with nearly a 1.4 whip.....yet another deal that really makes Davies seem like a huge steal for $5 mil.
#738 · December 11, 2019, 6:09 pm
The fact that we aren’t in in a guy like Cole Calhoun reiterates the strategy for this offseason.
Yes he’s a LH hitting outfielder but he’s basically a LH hitting Hunter Renfroe.
33 HR last year but K’s way too much and just doesn’t get on base enough(still better than HR though).
I for one am glad they are sticking with going after guys who can have good AB’s......low K rates and get on base!
TatisJr has reacted to this post.
TatisJr
#739 · December 11, 2019, 6:30 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on December 11, 2019, 6:09 pmThe fact that we aren’t in in a guy like Cole Calhoun reiterates the strategy for this offseason.
Yes he’s a LH hitting outfielder but he’s basically a LH hitting Hunter Renfroe.
33 HR last year but K’s way too much and just doesn’t get on base enough(still better than HR though).
I for one am glad they are sticking with going after guys who can have good AB’s......low K rates and get on base!
Starting to feel like AJ is adopting a Moneyball type strategy. With emphasis on OBP. I'm okay with that.
#740 · December 11, 2019, 11:34 pm
Quote from Commie on December 11, 2019, 6:30 pmQuote from MrPadre19 on December 11, 2019, 6:09 pmThe fact that we aren’t in in a guy like Cole Calhoun reiterates the strategy for this offseason.
Yes he’s a LH hitting outfielder but he’s basically a LH hitting Hunter Renfroe.
33 HR last year but K’s way too much and just doesn’t get on base enough(still better than HR though).
I for one am glad they are sticking with going after guys who can have good AB’s......low K rates and get on base!
Starting to feel like AJ is adopting a Moneyball type strategy. With emphasis on OBP. I'm okay with that.
You basically can't make the playoffs without being at least league average in OBP. You can K a lot, like Milwaukee last year, but you have to Walk a lot too... Pads haven't mastered that part yet!
AND with the 3-batter rule, having a generally patient "good eye" lineup vs. 8 free swingers (Pads usual), could really wreak havoc on bullpens this year... maybe it's the move baseball needed to make to steer teams away from swinging for fences & back to fundamentals a little?