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#581 · December 5, 2019, 11:23 am
Quote from fenn68 on December 5, 2019, 11:09 amI am beginning to like TOR as a home for Myers.
- Myers actually may be an upgrade for TOR at anyone of their current positions of need: 1B/RF/DH ... so three spots and only one Myers
- The ballpark in TOR is a hitter's park ... could (should) expect Myers to hit better v PETCO
- Toronto's projected payroll is only $69MM for 2020 and in 2021 may actually go down with a couple of FA and not impactful ARB increases (maybe another $12MM down ... to $57MMish). Add that TOR is a pretty well funded organization.
- TOR has been reported as being in the hunt for some of the big money SP .... so needs pitching and is willing to spend.
- TOR has a lot of very young, low cost, high upside talent that has hit the ML level ... so closer to making an impact than we may think ... suggesting ML (ML ready talent) is their target.
So, what would the want to take on Myers and the $61MM over the next 3 years? How much would Preller be willing to give to clear that liability? Maybe Preller gets a return of a rookie ball prospect or two but to move Myers contract to TOR not getting any near term value in return.
Myers (RF/1B/DH) plus Naylor (1B/DH with 6 years control... Canadian connection) plus (Quantrill SP with 6 years control but ML ready ... Canadian connection) ... if needed .... plus Bolanos (SP with 6 years control and some upside). Toronto take the full $61MM. May look like an overpay BUT are really Naylor - Quantrill - Bolanos keys to the Padres' future and clearing that $61MM MAY add the funds to get that major upgrade that does help the future.
Lucchesi is still sitting as the #5 SP and $20MM (plus maybe the next $10MM) to create some real flexibility in using money / trade chips to upgrade OF and SP.
Step 1 ... overpay to move Myers' contract.
Great post Fenn! I forgot about the Jays on my list. They do make tons of sense and that package seems like a realistic deal.
#582 · December 5, 2019, 11:23 am
Quote from Brian Connelly on December 5, 2019, 11:01 amHard to envision ANY scenario where trading Lamet's cheap 4 year control and weakening SP without adding to it makes sense. His statcast is off the charts; blows away Lucchesi & Quantrill, and frankly even Paddack (can't really spin his Curve). It's comparable & even superior in many aspects to Strasburg, and only "behind" Gerritt Cole's (like 99% of all other SP in MLB) of major FA I compared with.
Statcast only measures certain metrics, so not capturing how effective/elite Paddack's Changeup & Control are. But I have a sneaking suspicion that almost all of us on these boards have Paddack overrated relative to Lamet. They both have an elite 2nd pitch, and Paddack's control & focus/cometitiveness/intensity is definitely superior, but Lamet's superior velocity & spin on all offerings plus killer slider IMO offset better the lack of an average-good "3rd" pitch better than Paddack's arsenal.
Lamet blatantly obviously has #1 - #3 SP stuff. He's definitely a late bloomer & still developing, so should he be SP or DOMINANT RP is still a fair question, but since trading him wouldn't even clear any payroll to add proven MLB players at any position, what would we trade him for? It would basically be like trading Paddack.
I would not deal Lamet given his upside ... don't think Preller will BUT never say never until looking down the face of the return. Remember Lamet is still POTENTIAL. IF some team offered 4-6 years of a major impact bat for the OF like Yelich to MILW have to consider it.
#583 · December 5, 2019, 11:48 am
Padres Likely To Pursue Kwang-Hyun Kim
The Padres are planning to take another run at signing lefty Kwang-Hyun Kim now that he’s been posted by the SK Wyverns of the Korea Baseball Organization, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. San Diego won the bidding on Kim when he was posted under the previous blind-bid system back in 2014, and the organization again has its sights set on the now-31-year-old southpaw.
Over his past 326 1/3 innings since surgery, Kim has pitched to a 2.70 ERA with 310 strikeouts against just 68 walks — demonstrating the best control of his career. He’s walked just 5.1 percent of the hitters he’s faced in that span against a 23.1 percent strikeout rate. Certainly, there’s cause for intrigue and reason to believe that he could be a viable mid-rotation upgrade at a lesser price than remaining second- and third-tier options on the domestic market.
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Same piece stated that the Padres are NOT pursuing Strasburg or Cole. Plus with this option ... may not be pursuing any of the FA SP who may we well over priced in this market.
Kim could be that next "under the radar" mid-rotation upgrade (like Davies) at a low cost. If signed, makes Lucchesi and Quantrill even more viable trade chips.
#584 · December 5, 2019, 12:00 pm
Just say NO to trading Lamet unless it means bringing in Strasburg or Cole.
I have Lamet as one of our All Star reps this year....or in 21'.
#585 · December 5, 2019, 12:30 pm
Quote from fenn68 on December 5, 2019, 10:39 amI lean more towards using the funds to upgrade the OF offense that putting all my chips into a SP for 2020-21. Willing to take some risk with the pitching given the depth and potential. If the Padres want to start winning in 2020 it will not be with one of the worst offensive OF in MLB. Returning Myers - Margot - Renfroe is not inspiring given the ML time and performance. Naylor MAY develop as a hitter but not a fielder. Grisham is the new toy ... upside ... but really what has he proven except for a small sample size.
Additional upgrade to the SP is always an objective ... but Preller may see a better (cheaper) route via the trade strategy such as Davies. Not sure who but did not envision Davies on the market. Remember improvement just has to be better than Lucchesi / Quantrill so not a major hurdle and just needs to buy time until Gore, Patino, et al are ready ... so 2 -3 years?
I know. You & I fundamentally disagree. I believe the Pads specifically don't need mid-back rotation help/depth; they need someone to FRONT the rotation in 2020, provide 200 IP if possible to protect Lamet & Richards' TJ arms & Gore's IP limit, prevent Gore from being on O.D roster to gain 1 yr control & save MM's of $$ down the road, make every other starter incrementally better in all 162 games by giving them a greater chance to succeed, and SHOW BY EXAMPLE the Pads 4? 5? SP who have TOR potential what it takes to be a TOR SP! It is OK if this SP is not the O.D. starter in 2021! It also frees up the most valuable asset in MLB; young SP MLB & prospects TO BE USED TO ACQUIRE OTHER NEEDS!
I WANT to get help on offense, esp OF, but 2 big issues: 1) FA OF market NOT attractive, and 2) since #1 is true, most of the suggestions are trading out long control cheap prospects/assets for short control 1-3 yr more expensive MLB guys. If we're not going to make playoffs, why should we trade assets for a guy like Conforto for 10/15 MM over 2 years?!? It's pointless! Why not just sign Corey Dickerson as a 2 year band aid and not give up assets? How much is the WAR difference between those 2 players really going to be in 2020?
We're all frustrated with Myers, Margot, Renfroe. I believe Grisham for Urias means Margot just went down to 50% playing time... at most. My entire offseason plan hinges upon trading Myers. Do feel he needs to be replaced by a proven MLB player; see above. BUT we do have 2 out of the box platoon options for LF now; Mejia & Tatis(!)... more later on that. Of the 3, I think Renfroe is most likely to rebound from his disastrous injury plagued 2nd 1/2. We know what he is: #4 hitter challenged to hit .250 BA /.300 OBP & struggles vs RHP, but strong arm & good defense. Pads simply had no options to put out there last year when he was hurt. Now they do: Pads have 4 young LH AND 2 young RH OF ALL within 0 -1 year of MLB. If half of them succeed, we'll be in great shape. A huge amount of OF struggle last year was no LH at all in 1st half, then no F. Reyes combined with injured Renfroe in 2nd 1/2.
Look at the Pomeranz signing: That is move of a team trying to win in 2020 and every year beyond. Let's sign one of the 4 remaining impact FA SP available to similarly improve Pads chances of winning not just in 2020 but beyond.
The 2020 OF FA is weak (boosts Myers value I think) just like the 2019 SP FA market was... can't force something to be there that isn't; which is what I feel like all of the OF trade proposals are doing. Now Trout for Myers + Margot + "the entire Farm"... NOW I'm listening! 🙂
#586 · December 5, 2019, 12:58 pm
I don't see us "just signing Dickerson" unless it involves moving Myers or Renfroe or even Margot.
Unless they plan on putting Naylor in AAA,which I doubt,we need to move someone to add Dickerson.
My guess is that Dickerson wants more than AJ wants to give or we would have heard some rumblings by now.
Of course,there hasn't been any word about Corey so maybe he's just everyone's fallback option?
He sure seems like he should be more than that but he keeps getting moved around for very little and never really
playing full time....it's kind of odd if you ask me.
#587 · December 5, 2019, 1:05 pm
I’d like to see a TOR added this offseason and I think doing so would open up more trade possibilities for adding an OF bat. If the goal is to start winning in 2020 that seems like the route to go. I admit I’m more optimistic about the growth of the Padres young hitters then most. The Padres interest in Kim seems odd to me, they must really like him. Just from the little bit I’ve read about him it indicates he’s more of a backend rotation, BP guy. If he’s signed I’d imagine one or possibly two of Joey, Cal or Davies will be moved in a package.
I’m interested to see how Puigs market develops. An OF of Puig in RF, Grisham/Margot CF, Renfroe/Cordero or Naylor LF would be good enough for me. Puig on a 2/18 or 2/20 could be a great value. He obviously comes with concerns, but AJP likes to gamble. Did Puig and Manny get along in LA?
#588 · December 5, 2019, 1:20 pm
Acee SDUT.... The team does not plan to meet with agent Scott Boras regarding Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg due to the expected price tag on the two stars. And the Padres believe the quality of their current starters and depth of highly-touted minor league starting pitchers negates a need to make a run at any of the other available free-agent starters.
Understand Cole/Strasburg even if I wish it weren't so. Agree 100% avoid Keuchel & below... but this is far below that & feels like throwing in towel relative to MadBum & Ryu (subtracting from division opponents). I'm probably over depressed right now. But think I'm right here:
When Preller reversed course after the big initial splash & traded out & built up the Farm into a powerhouse, the one huge flaw that I saw was that what appeared to be the position players for a contending Pads team were too "far ahead" / out of sync with the elite SP prospects behind them. Knowing it would take the SP's years to arrive & years more to get established, I didn't see how they would bridge that gap. Now I think I know: By letting elite SP wave hit first, and remaking the entire rest of the roster since literally none of that "first wave" of guys appears to make a difference:
Position Failed present Player of future ETA DEBUT Last season?
C HEDGES Mejia / Campusano 2019 / 2021
1B HOSMER ? xxx 2022 (opt out)
2B SPANGY / URIAS Edwards/Abrams 2021 / 2022
SS xxx TATIS (Abrams/Arias) 2019 (2021-22)
3B xxx MACHADO (Tatis) xxx 2023 (opt out)
LF MYERS ?
CF MARGOT Trammell 2020
RF RENFROE ?
... given Acee's report, if Preller didn't have a "win now" mandate (that he doesn't have the $ to meet), would probably completely shift gears this offseason: trade Yates, get young, etc.... but since he does, that will hinder/conflict with team's ultimate direction of trying to find "the guy" at 6 or 7 of the 8 positions in the Field before all the young SP's cost 20 MM/yr in Arb 🙂
It's OK, we've got lots of top 100 prospects! Like Hedges top 50, Urias top 50, Myers top 10, Margot top 50, Renfroe top 100...
sigh
#589 · December 5, 2019, 1:41 pm
Quote from TatisJr on December 5, 2019, 1:05 pmI’d like to see a TOR added this offseason and I think doing so would open up more trade possibilities for adding an OF bat. If the goal is to start winning in 2020 that seems like the route to go. I admit I’m more optimistic about the growth of the Padres young hitters then most. The Padres interest in Kim seems odd to me, they must really like him. Just from the little bit I’ve read about him it indicates he’s more of a backend rotation, BP guy. If he’s signed I’d imagine one or possibly two of Joey, Cal or Davies will be moved in a package.
I’m interested to see how Puigs market develops. An OF of Puig in RF, Grisham/Margot CF, Renfroe/Cordero or Naylor LF would be good enough for me. Puig on a 2/18 or 2/20 could be a great value. He obviously comes with concerns, but AJP likes to gamble. Did Puig and Manny get along in LA?
Kim could be low cost, mid-rotation and clearly bump Lucchesi and Quantrill out of the starting slots (and they would be good trade chips for offense or in a package even a better SP). Alternatively, since LHRP is an option ...Strahm could become a real strong trade chip (low cost, 3 years control).
TOR arm would be a great add ... but need (want) more improvement in all the 5 starting slots. TOR may get you further in the playoffs but starters 2-5 are critical to get you into the playoffs ... wins are wins. Lauer, Lucchesi were being panned as #5 arms at best ... Quantrill before last season was on the verge of being written off and even now ... maybe a mid-rotation IF he develops. Based on proven ML results ... Davies will be an upgrade. IF Kim (a veteran at 31) is as billed he will be an upgrade (probably not worse). So putting two middle of the rotation arms with who we think are upper rotation arms in Paddack and Lamet ... sets the table pretty well IF they get that TOR (note not really there with Richards until he shows it for the Padres). Plus not a high cost.
IF they don't get that TOR arm ... they advance on one objective of winning more games (need a +11 wins to .500) while waiting for Gore / Patino.
It is a 26 man roster and need contributions from them all. Kim and Davies may not be the high profile sparkling bobble player but probably should not discount their value in moving a 92 loss team into a playoff contender. Not the end of moves but upgrade moves.
#590 · December 5, 2019, 2:03 pm
Let us not forget ... signing a FA TOR arm is not the only way to get a TOR arm.
Remember Houston traded for Verlander, Greinke, Cole .... and frankly did not give up great prospect stock. Recall the NYY did that to get Sabathia. Boston did that with Sale. Padres have some quality prospects ... so maybe for the Padres trading prospects may get them a legit TOR arm that costs less than a FA ... on a shorter contract ... buying time for Gore et al.
Kluber fits the profile and has been discussed. Sale from a rebuilding Boston?
Doesn't have to be in 2020 could be next winter as other teams reevaluate the situations.