Quote from Brian Connelly on December 5, 2019, 9:29 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 5, 2019, 7:01 am

Most seem to think MadBum is the next to sign with at least a 4 year deal pushing $100MM. Still a lot of teams seeking pitching will move to Ryu and Keuchel ... ones not in on Cole or Strasburg will move quickly probably to avoid the big money teams in on Cole and Strasburg that don’t get them shifting focus.

Clearly not at the same level ... but needing pitching is needing pitching .... might we see the trade value of Lucchesi and Quantrill being higher that we may think? Both can step in right now as a bottom of the rotation arm and for a contender an upgrade at the bottom of the rotation gets you more wins ... more wins may be just enough to get the playoffs.

Short answer:  Yes it is.   I'm increasingly certain Myers + Joey or Cal is >/= Ozuna - QO Draft pick (pool $) which = 3/45 MM est

The Catch-22 is that to have the freedom to trade one of these guys & realize the increase in value, you have to PAY that premium by signing (or less likely, trading for) a SP better than they are.  The fact that we have the SP prospect depth to trade a guy out is a "hidden" advantage many teams don't have that has to be factored in when considering signing a FA.  I believe it effectively lowers the $/AAV you're paying for the FA, b/c the depth is there to replace what the traded guy (Joey, Q, Lauer) was.

Don't want to get ridiculous "double counting $" here, but if we sign MadBum for even 5/100, isn't it fair to say:  OK, by doing so it allows us to not only save say 15 MM in Arb costs (Est:  3/5/7) over the 2021-22-23 seasons on Lucchesi, but also to capture even more than that by trading him now while he is still worth a premium?  Very hard to quantify this amount, but it is "real".  Safe to say IMO that Lauer's "value" now WAS 10-12 MM due to 5 yrs control (1 min + 4 arb) in the Davies trade....

... which is quickly looking like Preller's best move of offseason.  Getting Davies right before the FA SP market took off is looking like an Insider trading stock move.  Davies is a great "insurance policy".  Can hold him OR, when the top 4 + Keuchel + Pineda are gone and multiple teams have none of them, eyes are going to turn to the Pads who-- if they did get 1 of the top 6 FA--will be in the catbird seat, and if they want they can easily flip Davies IMO for > "Eric Lauer"(prospect/potential wise).  Look at the Dylan Bundy trade; Bundy high profile, but hard to argue he's > Davies.

Actually, it probably makes more sense now if +1 FA SP, to flip Davies for a good prospect and $ savings than it does to include the upside/cheap, long control of Joey or Cal in the Myers trade, and maybe just trading Wil "alone" for less $ savings.  IF can trade Myers alone for enough, Pads now come out "ahead" this way.  That's kind of a big if though; limited OF market, but seems like if 6 teams are in on Ozuna, there is enough demand to get sufficient $ for Myers:  need at least 3/30 = 10 MM AAV.

Quote from fenn68 on December 5, 2019, 10:19 am

Don't have to add a better pitcher if they assume the starting staff is Paddack, Lamet, Davis, Richards, and either Lucchesi or Quantrill. One of the two is "excess" so easier to consider moving (maybe a buyer's choice in the right deal). Still siting with Gore - Patino - Morejon - Bolanos - Lawson as potential mid-season call-ups.

At the same time all those prospects also have probably higher trade values ... and I would not discount (for the right return) Lamet being in play.

A lot depends on the team they are dealing with ... contender or non-contender ... and seriousness of their need plus the quality of the player the Padres would acquire. Lamet / Lucchesi probably would have more appeal to a contender who wants some certainty in the performance of the pitcher for 2020. A non-contender may like Quantrill and the prospects more assuming higher upside / longer control. Preller has to be "flexible" to get the upgrades he wants.

Do think moving Myers' contract is critical path IF the Padres want to add a MadBum, Ryu, Kuechel type at an $18-24MM AAV for a minimum of 3 years. (not sure they do). Listening to Dennis Lin he seems to think the Padres are pretty close to where the want to be payroll wise (maybe $10MM more). Yes, Siedler did say money is available to go higher under the right circumstances ... but I don't interpret that as using big money to "chase" a high priced FA given the rest of this roster.

Quote from TatisJr on December 5, 2019, 10:20 am

I agree with you that Myers plus Cal or Joey is>Ozuna plus Q.O. draft pick. I’m just not sure teams interested in Ozuna will view it that way. If they are going after Ozuna, they’re looking for an immediate offensive boost. I believe Myers 2020 numbers will be much better, but teams in need of immediate offense will value Ozuna and parting with Q.O. pick instead of betting big financially on a Myers bounce back year. Myers 2019 tape is going to look awfully ugly to baseball ops folks. I think unloading Myers deal will cost 2 of Joey, Cal, Morejon, Weathers and another lower tier prospect. The price will be steep. I think it’s doable, but it will be a painful cost in talent to get it done. The best bet for a Myers deal seems like Det, KC, Miami. The Giants might be interested in buying prospects, the Yanks and Red Sox have enough salary to unload that they could acquire Myers in a cost cutting move.
100 percent agree on the Davies pickup. With each day I like Davies acquisition more and more. A 26 year old 2.5 WAR pitcher would be getting PAID in this FA pitching market. He will only make 5 mill next year. Sneaky good move by AJP for making the Davies addition before the market went crazy. Bumgarner making 100 mill or so is shocking to me. I had him pegged at 68-72 million total going into the offseason.

Quote from fenn68 on December 5, 2019, 10:39 am

I lean more towards using the funds to upgrade the OF offense that putting all my chips into a SP for 2020-21. Willing to take some risk with the pitching given the depth and potential. If the Padres want to start winning in 2020 it will not be with one of the worst offensive OF in MLB. Returning Myers - Margot - Renfroe is not inspiring given the ML time and performance. Naylor MAY develop as a hitter but not a fielder. Grisham is the new toy ... upside ... but really what has he proven except for a small sample size.

Additional upgrade to the SP is always an objective ... but Preller may see a better (cheaper) route via the trade strategy such as Davies. Not sure who but did not envision Davies on the market. Remember improvement just has to be better than Lucchesi / Quantrill so not a major hurdle and just needs to buy time until Gore, Patino, et al are ready ... so 2 -3 years?

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 5, 2019, 10:41 am

Bumgarner making 100 mill or so is shocking to me. I had him pegged at 68-72 million total going into the offseason.

Well, 5/100 just pure speculation on my part.... but have to believe he EITHER is > 18 MM AAV (=Hamels, Odorizzi) OR maybe a little lower AAV, but a 5th year.  Obviously 5/100 would be both!

Since "rising", statcast darling, but TJ Surgery & less accomplished & only 1 year younger Wheeler just got 23.6 MM AAV...

... AAV for good FA SP is definitely rising above MLBTR projections.  My guess is that more teams with payrolls not in top 7-8 range may have little choice but to lower the AAV by adding an extra contract year.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 5, 2019, 11:01 am

Hard to envision ANY scenario where trading Lamet's cheap 4 year control and weakening SP without adding to it makes sense.  His statcast is off the charts; blows away Lucchesi & Quantrill, and frankly even Paddack (can't really spin his Curve).  It's comparable & even superior in many aspects to Strasburg, and only "behind" Gerritt Cole's (like 99% of all other SP in MLB) of major FA I compared with.

Statcast only measures certain metrics, so not capturing  how effective/elite Paddack's Changeup & Control are.  But I have a sneaking suspicion that almost all of us on these boards have Paddack overrated relative to Lamet.   They both have an elite 2nd pitch, and Paddack's control & focus/cometitiveness/intensity is definitely superior, but Lamet's superior velocity & spin on all offerings plus killer slider IMO offset better the lack of an average-good "3rd" pitch better than Paddack's arsenal.

Lamet blatantly obviously has #1 - #3 SP stuff.  He's definitely a late bloomer & still developing, so should he be SP or DOMINANT RP is still a fair question, but since trading him wouldn't even clear any payroll to add proven MLB players at any position, what would we trade him for?    It would basically be like trading Paddack.

Quote from fenn68 on December 5, 2019, 11:09 am

I am beginning to like TOR as a home for Myers.

1. Myers actually may be an upgrade for TOR at anyone of their current positions of need: 1B/RF/DH ... so three spots and only one Myers
2. The ballpark in TOR is a hitter's park ... could (should) expect Myers to hit better v PETCO
3. Toronto's projected payroll is only $69MM for 2020 and in 2021 may actually go down with a couple of FA and not impactful ARB increases (maybe another $12MM down ... to $57MMish). Add that TOR is a pretty well funded organization.
4. TOR has been reported as being in the hunt for some of the big money SP .... so needs pitching and is willing to spend.
5. TOR has a lot of very young, low cost, high upside talent that has hit the ML level ... so closer to making an impact than we may think ... suggesting ML (ML ready talent) is their target.

So, what would the want to take on Myers and the $61MM over the next 3 years? How much would Preller be willing to give to clear that liability? Maybe Preller gets a return of a rookie ball prospect or two but to move Myers contract to TOR not getting any near term value in return.

Myers (RF/1B/DH) plus Naylor (1B/DH with 6 years control... Canadian connection) plus (Quantrill SP with 6 years control but ML ready ... Canadian connection) ... if needed .... plus Bolanos (SP with 6 years control and some upside). Toronto take the full $61MM. May look like an overpay BUT are really Naylor - Quantrill - Bolanos keys to the Padres' future and clearing that $61MM MAY add the funds to get that major upgrade that does help the future.

Lucchesi is still sitting as the #5 SP and $20MM (plus maybe the next $10MM) to create some real flexibility in using money / trade chips to upgrade OF and SP.

Step 1 ... overpay to move Myers' contract.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 5, 2019, 11:17 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 5, 2019, 11:09 am

I am beginning to like TOR as a home for Myers.

Myers (RF/1B/DH) plus Naylor (1B/DH with 6 years control... Canadian connection) plus (Quantrill SP with 6 years control but ML ready ... Canadian connection) ... if needed .... plus Bolanos (SP with 6 years control and some upside). Toronto take the full $61MM. May look like an overpay BUT are really Naylor - Quantrill - Bolanos keys to the Padres' future and clearing that $61MM MAY add the funds to get that major upgrade that does help the future.

I have been behind this idea for awhile, I think TOR is a great place for a Myers trade. I would even add a Nix or Lawson type of prospect level to make this deal happen. Plus, TOR is kind of a low key market, so Myers wont have too much media in his face depending on how things shape up for him there.

For TOR, that would be a LF/RF option in Myers, Naylor 1B/DH option, Quantrill is a at worst #3 or 4 SP with the possibility of being a #2, and Bolanos and Nix offer either #5 stuff or strong RP.

Quote from TatisJr on December 5, 2019, 11:20 am

Paddack definitely gets more attention/hype. I agree Lamet is underrated by many. I’m pretty sure I remember reading AJP didn’t want to part with Lamet a couple years ago. The rumored deal was supposedly Lamet/Perdomo for Javier Baez(prior to his breakout) deal. I’d be very surprised if Lamet was available at all.