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Off Season Thread

IQuote from JasonE135 on October 4, 2019, 1:26 pm
Quote from David Nevin on October 4, 2019, 12:44 pm

I would use the 40.6 as the guideline as the Brewers didn't really "reach the playoffs".

But your point still remains.

We all believe even if we didn't do anything but release the players we need to to get back to 40 we would most likely gain 6-8 WAR with Tatis for a full year and improvements by the youngsters(Urias/Naylor/Mejia) and the addition by subtraction.

Also...not debuting so many arms in the rotation would help as would a full year(or to their innings limit) of Richards and Lamet.

So we really "need" to add probably about 10-12 WAR or so.

Another huge question mark is Renfroe.

Is he the huge positive he was in the first half or the huge negative he was in the second?

Can he play as he did in the first half for a full season?

You would think he could if he stayed healthy "unless" the tape shows opposing pitchers figured something out and that is the reason moreso than a nagging injury.

What do you think the "real" reason for the huge change in his production?

 

 

 

 

As far as Renfroe is concerned I am sure there are multiple reasons for his drop off in production. I am sure injuries played a role. Possibly a large one. Beyond that he is a limited hitter; low OBP, high strikeout. He can be neutralized when you don't HAVE TO pitch to him. Perhaps losing Reyes had more of an effect than anyone thought. If nobody behind him in the lineup is a threat, there is no reason to throw him strikes. He doesn't have the patience to consistently take walks. If it is close he will swing. If whoever hits behind him scares you even a little you have to throw him strikes. Renfroe and Reyes were huge. Renfroe alone is just one man.

I’m with you on Renfroe  but his first half seemed to show a change in the player he is.

Which is why I asked about his second half.If you believe it was even partly due to injury.....are you sure we are done with him?

He made tremendous strides defensively in one off season.....if he hits a full season as he did in the first half of 19 he is an All Star.

 

Renfrew has huge power. He can hit us 40 HR. He will also never hit much more than .250-.260 at best, and with a low OBP. Those players definitely have a place, but you cannot afford to really have more than one in your lineup. We have Renfroe and Myers. Renfroe has some trade value. Myers does not. I figure Renfroe is the one who will have to be moved.

Quote from JasonE135 on October 4, 2019, 5:20 pm

Renfrew has huge power. He can hit us 40 HR. He will also never hit much more than .250-.260 at best, and with a low OBP. Those players definitely have a place, but you cannot afford to really have more than one in your lineup. We have Renfroe and Myers. Renfroe has some trade value. Myers does not. I figure Renfroe is the one who will have to be moved.

Totally correct, you can have one "Renfroe" type, not 3, like when we had Renfroe, Reyes, and Myers. Reyes got us Trammel, not do we risk keeping Myers or Renfroe. Myers will cost a lot to ship out money and prospects, and Im not sure if Renfroe on his own nets us much of anything, would need to be part of a package deal. Like Renfroe's power, but if Myers can pull his head out of his backside, he could be 30 HRs, 30 Doubles, and 30 steals.

Renfroe should be a good fit (as a complementary player) on a team with a quality pitching staff where close low scoring games would benefit from his defense and a solo HR might win it. On the flip side, on a team with superior offense but still needing a corner OF ... his hitting flaws can be minimized and his defense / bat would play up.

Padres are neither of those. He just is not a feature bat on a contending team and if the Padres want to contend sooner than later ... need to pursue alternatives.

Basically have the same attitude on Myers and Hedges .... all three have been around for 3 or more years ... not stepping up to the next level ... just getting older with less control. All still have “some” value but none as featured players.

I would think both Renfroe and Hedges can be moved ... likely with other ML/prospects .. to get improvement for the Padres. Myers is coming down to when he is moved and how much of his contract Fowler will eat.

Can they all go this winter ... unlikely ... but have to start the process of culling the herd and inserting an upgrade or two.

======== wRC+: 1st half / 2nd half / season

Renfroe: 132 / 51 / 98

Myers: 91 / 103 / 96

 

 

 

I read (think it was Acee) that the Padres consider Margot and Renfroe as excellent PLATOON players.. Both absolutely destroy lefties... Myers neutral vs both sides BUT a bad neutral.. If Pads can get a Cory Dickerson who can damage Righties to start at one COF spot most of the time and be spelled vs lefties by Renfroe.. Then Naylor/Franchy/could be in the mix vs Righties (I am assuming Myers gone) and AJP can always add an Inciarte for upgrade purposes UNLESS they think Trammell can be ready Now..... New GM can have fun with lefty/righty splits and lineups and have 5-6OFs combine for .900+ OPS OF play at all 3 spots... And keeping everyone fresh and involved .. Maybe we don't have a 600PA OFer.. But we have 4-5-6 with 400+ PAs each...

By the way Renfroe .906 OPS vs lefties

Margot .886 OPS vs lefties

Corey Dickerson (a good fit) .866 OPS career vs Righties...

So why not play match up lefty/righty for 2020.. We maximize production ..can play defensive replacements late and can also have terrific PH ptions late in games.. That extra (position player) 26th roster spot could be perfect

A consideration in making the cuts / trades to set the 40 man roster for next season will (should) be trimming payroll as it relates to marginal players replaceable with league minimum types. Padres would then take the “savings” and redeploy on a more significant upgrade at a position of need. Make the right cuts and they could open another $7MM+/-. These players should be at higher risk (player / 2019 salary) since arbitration will not lower (and in Hedges and Garcia should increase) their 2020.

Hedges ... $2.1 ... Arb 2

Edwards ... $1.5 ... Arb 2

Erlin ... $1.5 ... Arb 3

Jankowski ... $1.2 ... Arb 2

Garcia ... $0.9 ... Arb 2

Add that going into Arb 1: Renfroe; Margot; Strahm (Strahm may be the safest)

Add the decision on Yates ... $3.1 ... arb 3 (1 control year) ... relief pitcher of the year in MLB should result in a significant pay increase via arbitration or extension. Don’t see the Padres moving Yates if they want to contend in 2020 and go with no experience at closer ... more likely an extension to get closer protection through 2022 and forgot “selling high” and taking the risk of regression.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 5, 2019, 4:56 am

I read (think it was Acee) that the Padres consider Margot and Renfroe as excellent PLATOON players.. Both absolutely destroy lefties... Myers neutral vs both sides BUT a bad neutral.. If Pads can get a Cory Dickerson who can damage Righties to start at one COF spot most of the time and be spelled vs lefties by Renfroe.. Then Naylor/Franchy/could be in the mix vs Righties (I am assuming Myers gone) and AJP can always add an Inciarte for upgrade purposes UNLESS they think Trammell can be ready Now..... New GM can have fun with lefty/righty splits and lineups and have 5-6OFs combine for .900+ OPS OF play at all 3 spots... And keeping everyone fresh and involved .. Maybe we don't have a 600PA OFer.. But we have 4-5-6 with 400+ PAs each...

By the way Renfroe .906 OPS vs lefties

Margot .886 OPS vs lefties

I can see the low cost but effective platooning strategy potentially being effective (with maybe some optimistic projection) a RF of Renfroe / Naylor (L), CF of Margot / Cordero (L), and LF Myers. Sort of the way a lot of ML teams work the analytics these days and 5 OF looks to be the max to carry on the 26 man roster.

What may alter that mix is if they need to include one (or more) of those incumbents to complete a deal for a significant upgrade to SP or OF.

One concern on the platooning is how a player adapts to it ... specifically RHH who may only be starting 25% of the time. Some players can keep their swing / approach sharp but others (normally big swingers) have some difficulty. At this point a guess as to where Renfroe and Margot fall.

One concern with that scenario, is Naylor CAN NOT play RF.

Quote from BoosterSD on October 5, 2019, 12:06 pm

One concern with that scenario, is Naylor CAN NOT play RF.

Sure he can ... just badly.

With Margot and Renfroe not hitting RHP well (and that is about 75% of the starters) and the LHH options are Naylor who can't field, Cordero who can't hit LHP (or stay heathy) with minimal ML time, Jankowski who just can't hit other than slapping the ball around, and Martini a career minor leaguer ... highlights the need to get an OF who can hit both LHP and RHP minimizing the need for platooning at two OF slots (hopefully get 2 OF and eliminate platooning as regular feature of the line-up).

Simply the LHH side of the platoon options for the Padres fall way short of ML quality for 75% of the starts if they want to be a contender.

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 5, 2019, 12:37 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on October 5, 2019, 12:06 pm

One concern with that scenario, is Naylor CAN NOT play RF.

Sure he can ... just badly.

With Margot and Renfroe not hitting RHP well (and that is about 75% of the starters) and the LHH options are Naylor who can't field, Cordero who can't hit LHP (or stay heathy) with minimal ML time, Jankowski who just can't hit other than slapping the ball around, and Martini a career minor leaguer ... highlights the need to get an OF who can hit both LHP and RHP minimizing the need for platooning at two OF slots (hopefully get 2 OF and eliminate platooning as regular feature of the line-up).

Simply the LHH side of the platoon options for the Padres fall way short of ML quality for 75% of the starts if they want to be a contender.

 

For some reason getting rid of Naylor scares me. Dude is obviously going to be a very good hitter against both sides. No rush to move him. Let's see another year.  As someone mentioned, he's got some speed and a decent arm. Let's see how coachable he is. If he improves his D by 20% the team can weather a couple of years of running him to OF before DH comes.  If he does what I think he will at the plate he's a solid cleanup hitter on a good team.