Forum

You need to log in to create posts and topics.

Off Season Thread

Quote from BoosterSD on October 3, 2019, 11:39 am

The only one on that list of 11 Fenn that you suggests that doesnt sit well with me is Jank. I get your points, I still think he could make a fine platoon with Margot in CF. Always bat them both in the 8 spot and they can steal 2B, and then the P can bunt them to 3rd.

I would rather jettison Avila or Yardley in favor of keeping Jank. I think a new manager can get something out of him.

I would cut Avila, Yardley and Jank. Clear some space. None of those 3 or the 11 fenn mentioned are worth keeping.

Even if the cuts under 40 are "easy" ... just don't do them until needed ... situations do change which could alter the pecking order ... off-season injuries, which FA is signed, who is traded going out or coming in.

For example if Jankowski remained on the 4o he may solidify his spot if they trade Margot for a pitcher or weakening his hold on a spot if they trade for a CF and keep Margot.

Actually that train of thought may impact who is on the initial 11 cuts and who is retained on the 40. No doubt Preller has been (and will be) working the phones on possible deals and is ending up with a good feel as to which of the current roster players generates some trade interest or who may be an asset in a multi-player deal. He may protect them. Conversely, he may have a good sense who he will be pursuing and the odds of landing that person ... maybe pushing a similar position fringe player to the cut list.

Basically it is not necessarily the worst player that is the first to go.

Preller has people working on his list all year long. He knew what cuts he was going to make the day the season ended. Yes, there were spaces left open for trades. He has every possible move for every conceivable situation figured out already. Yes, he is going to try to make trades to lighten the load. But he already knows who is already gone, who is on the cusp, and who he wants to try to keep and how badly.

Listened to a Fowler radio interview this morning ... nothing really new but did hear a couple of the same themes as in previous interviews that may play into how the off season unfolds if those themes are at the top of his mind ... and he will have influence over Preller's moves.

  1. Fowler will not be part of the first round of managerial interviews but will enter the decision making process for round two (the finalists). I would expect he has given pretty clear guidelines to Preller (and the others who will be doing the first round) the traits he want to see for round two candidates.
  2. There are teams that would take Myers ... but only if the Padres ate $10-15MM per year of his remaining deal (no comment on what, if anything, they would give in return but the implication was not much). He felt that the best for the Padres would be if Myers started to play to his contract for the Padres. That suggests to me baring an unforeseen offer on Myers ... he remains a Padre but gets a short leash in 2020 to show improvement ... if not his time is short.
  3. Strikeouts by hitters .... he again focused on this strong dislike for the high strikeouts. I think if Fowler has that strong dislike ... Preller has heard it .... then potential actions this winter will try to correct that. So, Renfroe, Hedges, and Myers (the three worst offenders) might be more movable that some would want ... defense takes a back seat. On the flip side, as the Padres add new offensive options ... might see a greater focus on contact / OBP and pass on the HR/strikeout options.

 

Lowest WAR team in Playoffs was Brewers at 33.3.... Padres 18.5.. Highest Houston 67.6.. LAD 54.... 2nd lowest was STL 40.6 WAR..

So really not as far off as one would think at least 8 WAR can be achieved by simply not employing so many players that bring - WAR into play.. Having so many rookies and - value guys obviously is part of rebuilding.. But if 2020 is playoffs or bust guys that conttibuted -negative- WAR should not see much if any playing time and only way they would os if enough progression occurs to increase their WAR to neutral or +.... So that's 26.8... If we add a TOR 5+ WAR and a solid #3 2.5 WAR... 34.3 WAR so thats Brewers good... Natural progression of Paddack and Co.. Full season of Tatis Jr and a replacement in the OF of at least +3 WAR .. Could net us another 8-10 WAR..putting ua right in the middle of the playoff teams alongside Nats (46.4 WAR) obviously Nats could face a -5.or greter dip if they lose Stras + Rendon in the offseason and thats if they can get 6 WAR from their replavements combined.... Ditto LAD potential -Ryu.. -Hill. Another yr of wear and tear on Kershaw..etc.. So AJP needs to be very aggressive and bring the right upgrades while limiting or eliminating altogether - WAR contributors

I would use the 40.6 as the guideline as the Brewers didn't really "reach the playoffs".

But your point still remains.

We all believe even if we didn't do anything but release the players we need to to get back to 40 we would most likely gain 6-8 WAR with Tatis for a full year and improvements by the youngsters(Urias/Naylor/Mejia) and the addition by subtraction.

Also...not debuting so many arms in the rotation would help as would a full year(or to their innings limit) of Richards and Lamet.

So we really "need" to add probably about 10-12 WAR or so.

Another huge question mark is Renfroe.

Is he the huge positive he was in the first half or the huge negative he was in the second?

Can he play as he did in the first half for a full season?

You would think he could if he stayed healthy "unless" the tape shows opposing pitchers figured something out and that is the reason moreso than a nagging injury.

What do you think the "real" reason for the huge change in his production?

 

 

 

 

Quote from David Nevin on October 4, 2019, 12:44 pm

I would use the 40.6 as the guideline as the Brewers didn't really "reach the playoffs".

But your point still remains.

We all believe even if we didn't do anything but release the players we need to to get back to 40 we would most likely gain 6-8 WAR with Tatis for a full year and improvements by the youngsters(Urias/Naylor/Mejia) and the addition by subtraction.

Also...not debuting so many arms in the rotation would help as would a full year(or to their innings limit) of Richards and Lamet.

So we really "need" to add probably about 10-12 WAR or so.

Another huge question mark is Renfroe.

Is he the huge positive he was in the first half or the huge negative he was in the second?

Can he play as he did in the first half for a full season?

You would think he could if he stayed healthy "unless" the tape shows opposing pitchers figured something out and that is the reason moreso than a nagging injury.

What do you think the "real" reason for the huge change in his production?

 

 

 

 

As far as Renfroe is concerned I am sure there are multiple reasons for his drop off in production. I am sure injuries played a role. Possibly a large one. Beyond that he is a limited hitter; low OBP, high strikeout. He can be neutralized when you don't HAVE TO pitch to him. Perhaps losing Reyes had more of an effect than anyone thought. If nobody behind him in the lineup is a threat, there is no reason to throw him strikes. He doesn't have the patience to consistently take walks. If it is close he will swing. If whoever hits behind him scares you even a little you have to throw him strikes. Renfroe and Reyes were huge. Renfroe alone is just one man.

Maybe the new Manager needs to consider this when making his lineups?

Put Renfroe at clean up with a BigBat behind him for protection.

 

 

I am well past waiting for Renfroe becoming a complete player ... at best see him as a platoon player v. LHP but would rather move on if they could find an upgrade.

In his three years:

OBP: .284 ... .302 ... .289 / K%: 29.3 ... 24.7 ... 31.2

Given Fowler’s desire to move on to players who hit the ball and get on base (so do I), hard to see the Padres nursing him any further.

His WAR progressed from 0.2 to 1.6 to 1.9 with that last uptick due to a huge defensive improvement factor ... 2019 offense actually when down with that 2nd half. Basically his WAR is a product of HR and in 2019 defense.

If you like the way LAD, TB, STL et al play “smart baseball” making contact, hitting to opposite fields, situational hitting to advance runners / get the runner in from 2nd/3rd with a single ... Renfroe is not (and will not) be your guy.

Yes Renfroe is an imperfect player. So is everybody not named Trout, Bellinger or Yelich. He and Myers are what we have right now. Yes we need a guy who can hit right-handers and gives us a better BA and OBP. Possibly we can trade him to a team that is desperate for power. But the guy we replace him with will not have his power or his arm. Probably not his defense either. And he will cost more. More money, more prospects, less control. I am in favor of trading him too. But he does have value.