Quote from fenn68 on November 2, 2019, 7:09 am

Noted on RosterResource who are keeping the payroll calculation up to date with roster moves and estimated arbitration decisions that the Padres for 2020 are at $128MM (includes dead money and buy-outs).

So if the Padres want to make some critical adds ... likely they will have to pare down some of the salaries on “marginal” roster pieces beyond just growing the payroll.

Putting Myers aside for this discussion (he is alway a candidate but hard to make happen), here are the projected arbitration numbers:

$6.5MM ... Yates (not going anywhere)

$3.4MM ... Renfroe (could go if they get an everyday LHH corner OF)

$2.9MM ... Hedges (on very shaky ground)

$2.1MM ... Margot (at risk IF they come across a legit CF)

$1.6MM ... Edwards (should be gone .. just waiting when)

$1.7MM ... Lamet (should be retained)

$1.7MM ... Garcia (at risk at that price)

$1.5MM ... Strahm (should be retained)

$1.0MM ... Perdomo ( not much be every dollar helps .. could go)

So if you move on from Renfroe, Hedges, Garcia, Edwards, Perdomo ... should clear net of league minimum replacements about $8MM ... enough to get a legit OF bat?

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 2, 2019, 9:00 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 2, 2019, 3:47 am

Not questioning Trammell as a top prospect .... just not going to rely on him in 2020 to emerge as the next Tatis. Prospects develop at their own pace and Trammell has not delivered yet at the AA level. Even after they arrive ... some do need a breaking in period before full productivity.

Afraid the instant success of the young stars such as Tatis, Soto, Acuna may cause the fans to turn on any other quality prospect that is not an instant success.

Hopefully the fans don’t bury him (and others) while life still exists.

I mean it took Mejia 3 tries to get it right at least offensively he had a solid 2019 vs his past

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 2, 2019, 9:09 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 2, 2019, 7:09 am

Noted on RosterResource who are keeping the payroll calculation up to date with roster moves and estimated arbitration decisions that the Padres for 2020 are at $128MM (includes dead money and buy-outs).

So if the Padres want to make some critical adds ... likely they will have to pare down some of the salaries on “marginal” roster pieces beyond just growing the payroll.

Putting Myers aside for this discussion (he is alway a candidate but hard to make happen), here are the projected arbitration numbers:

$6.5MM ... Yates (not going anywhere)

$3.4MM ... Renfroe (could go if they get an everyday LHH corner OF)

$2.9MM ... Hedges (on very shaky ground)

$2.1MM ... Margot (at risk IF they come across a legit CF)

$1.6MM ... Edwards (should be gone .. just waiting when)

$1.7MM ... Lamet (should be retained)

$1.7MM ... Garcia (at risk at that price)

$1.5MM ... Strahm (should be retained)

$1.0MM ... Perdomo ( not much be every dollar helps .. could go)

So if you move on from Renfroe, Hedges, Garcia, Edwards, Perdomo ... should clear net of league minimum replacements about $8MM ... enough to get a legit OF bat?

From what I am hearing Padres willing to push to $150 if they can get a legit TOR (FA or otherwise)

Quote from fenn68 on November 2, 2019, 10:48 am

If they do push $150MM .... from where they are now only $22MM to go ... not sure that is enough for a FA top of the rotation arm ... and still would not address the very below average offensive OF.

Seems as though either way ... some of arbitration names need to be culled from the pack. Frankly OK with moving on from Hedges (covered by Mejia, Allen, and Torrens), Renfroe (if he is covered by a FA signing such as Dickerson), Edwards (easy), Perdomo (easy and should get even more than a Jankowski return). Garcia (depending on who they have as LHH on the bench). Maybe even Margot if they sign Akiyama at a reasonable annual price tag. Possible with Dickerson and Akiyama in the fold ... both LHH ... could clear the incumbents and net be around $130MM.

So, still trying for a TOR for about $20MM (not a FA for sure) via trade (not likely one really on the market) or ... dream of dreams ... eat $10MM of Myers to save $10MM and create a $30MM pool for Strasburg or Cole or ??? (Even with the $30MM pool ... no guarantee Strasburg or Cole will sign.

A lot of if - then sequencing.

Quote from fenn68 on November 2, 2019, 11:01 am

In 2019 the Padres’ OF offense ranked:

28th in BA

25th in OBP

22nd in SLG

21st in wRC+

doubt only changing out one OF will be enough to upgrade it to competitive status ... so maybe they should look at replacing at least two ... whichever two of the incumbents they can move and get the best return ... they are all suboptimal.

3 straight 90+ loss seasons with Myers - Margot - Renfroe might suggest a time to move on.

Quote from JasonE135 on November 2, 2019, 12:53 pm

Quote from fenn68 on November 2, 2019, 10:48 am

If they do push $150MM .... from where they are now only $22MM to go ... not sure that is enough for a FA top of the rotation arm ... and still would not address the very below average offensive OF.

Seems as though either way ... some of arbitration names need to be culled from the pack. Frankly OK with moving on from Hedges (covered by Mejia, Allen, and Torrens), Renfroe (if he is covered by a FA signing such as Dickerson), Edwards (easy), Perdomo (easy and should get even more than a Jankowski return). Garcia (depending on who they have as LHH on the bench). Maybe even Margot if they sign Akiyama at a reasonable annual price tag. Possible with Dickerson and Akiyama in the fold ... both LHH ... could clear the incumbents and net be around $130MM.

So, still trying for a TOR for about $20MM (not a FA for sure) via trade (not likely one really on the market) or ... dream of dreams ... eat $10MM of Myers to save $10MM and create a $30MM pool for Strasburg or Cole or ??? (Even with the $30MM pool ... no guarantee Strasburg or Cole will sign.

A lot of if - then sequencing.

I don't see a TOR happening if we are limited to $150 million. There are truly only 2 available, Cole and Strasburg. Strasburg would be the cheaper and more likely target, but he would still cost $30 million per year. That would take up all of the free money, even with trading Myers. There are no true TOR available for trade. Syndergaard and Boyd both had ERA's over 4. Boyds's lifetime ERA is just under 5.00! All trade targets are massively over-hyped. Our rotation was roughly average last year, with lots of room to improve with just regular progression from the young guys. Our offense was absolute bottom of the barrel. Even with only $20 million to spend we could still get a couple of solid additions such as Dickerson and Akiyama. I think that is the way to go.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 2, 2019, 3:50 pm

The contracts dont have to be the same dollars each year. So you can still average paying Strasburg $30M, just need to structure it so that year one is at $20M, and then you make up for it towards the end of the contract with a year or two at $35M.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 2, 2019, 6:49 pm

https://birdswatcher.com/2019/11/02/baltimore-orioles-three-other-players-likely-traded/

 

Think about this-- sort of fits us like a glove...

 

We trade Myers $20 ($60/3)  + Urias ($600K) + (remember fangrphs value for taking on Myers entire contract) - Potts + Weathers + Nix and we add Morejon + Allen + Naylor... (combined they make $22 mil in 2020)... so only +$9mil for Baltimore

FOR

 

All 3.. Mancini .297/.363/  .893 OPS vs RHP.. career wise is awesome too.. + Villar (career .735-- not great but a hot player, at least we know his low and high range of production- brdge player to Edwards and/or Miller/CJ) and Michael Owens (12.3 SO/9 ) caould be special for us.. Combined they make about $13mil in 2020.. Saves us $9 mil and fills 3 holes

 

By giving up prospect capital Padres are able to let Myers $$ all go away.. Urias upside is much greater than Villar and much cheaper and controllable... Naylors lefty stick will play great in Baltmore and Myers (Coors) likely rakes in this hitters paradise.. Weathers, Nix and Morejon are all talented enough to warrant top 10 prospect consideration in Baltimore's system and Potts in particular could be Top 5 for them as a position player

 

Why Padres do this- Mancini is a tremendous hitter vs both RHP and LHP and is under control until 2023. Givens is a legit Closer - has 1 game postseason experience (1 IP 0R 0.00 ERA) can be a set up man for Yates and be in the mix for closer down the road + Villar is versatile (like Urias) but at least gives us a range of what to expect on an avg year, a down year and a great year (2019) from him... Moves cost us some solid specs-- but not the very elite of the elite (unless your bullish on Urias- something AJP I dont think is).. so a lot to PAY for these 3 but we + those 3 to our base and all of the sudden we have something brewing.. We save net $9 mil (by using prospects instead of currency to rid ourselves of Myers) allowing us to still have $32 mil or so to fill the rest of the 26-- in a Perfect world we use that money on Marte (yes righty but also hits RHP well) and Sign our native son Starsburg.  Use Margot in Pitt trade along with other pieces (thus saving us enough $$ to bring back Stanmen..

lineup after offseason

1. Tatis Jr SS
2. Marte CF
3. Machado 3B
4. Mancini RF
5. Renfroe LF (vs RHP drops to 7)
6. Hosmer 1B
7. Mejia C
8. Pitcher
9. Villar 2B (like another leadoff man)

 

Bench- Hedges + Franchy + Garcia + France + ???

 

SP

1, Strasburg

2. Paddack

3. Lucchesi

4. Richards

5. Lamet

(Gore + Patino + Bolanos + Quantrill + Lauer all depth/AAA)

BP

Closer- Yates

Set up- Givens

7th Stanmen/Munoz/Castillo/Strahm

long/starter role Baez/Lauer--- (Bolanos/Quantrill/Patino and Gore all waiting their turn at AAA)

 

That my friends looks like a playoff roster to me-- with plenty of pop.. if Renfroe struggles vs RHP-- a deadline trade for a Veteran lefty stick always a possibility and there is always Trammell ...who should be ready at some point in 2020

All under 150 while still keeping our core Gore/Patino/CJ/Trammell/Campusano/Edwards top prospects in house

 

Quote from TatisJr on November 2, 2019, 7:22 pm

I like the idea of acquiring Marte, but I don’t want him playing center at Petco. If Urías is moved to acquire an ace I’d like to get Villar as a fill in until one of the kids takes over. I think acquiring Strasberg is just a pipe dream at this point. I don’t see anyway he’s not locked up with Nats long term. Boras works well with the Nats and Stras is the hero of the World Series run. I just don’t see any chance of him leaving. I believe AJP will be making an addition to the rotation. I think he will go big game hunting for an ace. If he can’t land one, I could see a solid vet like Hamels added to the staff.