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#151 · November 2, 2019, 7:56 pm
According to MLBTR they predict(and they are usually pretty close) the following 2020 salaries. Villar - $10.4M, Givens - $3.2M, Mancini - $5.7M. Without using new math, that looks a lot like $19.3M, not the $9M you suggested in your post. So we are only saving $700k from the Myers salary at $20M. However we are improving the team.
Now onto the players. Mancini is a fan favorite in BAL, rather inexpensive, and productive (and mind you his production will go down with a move to the NL and Petco compared to Oriole Park). So the prospects that you are including are Urias, Morejon, Naylor, Weathers, Allen, Potts, and Nix. Lets say that you were not including Myers, I would imagine that BAL would want Urias, Morejon, Weathers, and Potts for Mancini straight up. So, now you are expecting BAL to send SD Villar and Givens, both who have trade value on their own for Naylor and Nix while taking on all of Myers salary. I dont think that Naylor and Nix would be enough to get Villar or Givens, let alone both and having BAL take all of Myers salary. Plus, what other 3 prospects/players along with Margot are you planning on giving up for Marte, cuz they will have to be very high level.
Then IMO, the OFs of the NL West are much larger than those of the AL East, so I dont think Mancini is the answer in RF, I think he would be your LF. I agree with Tatis, and I dont think Marte is a CF in SD either, but would look good in RF. So we still need someone to patrol CF, and if you trade Margot, then are you hoping that a combo of Gettys and Akiyama can get it done. And do we have the space to pay Akiyama if we get Stras or Cole?
#152 · November 2, 2019, 8:12 pm
Quote from TatisJr on November 2, 2019, 7:22 pmI like the idea of acquiring Marte, but I don’t want him playing center at Petco. If Urías is moved to acquire an ace I’d like to get Villar as a fill in until one of the kids takes over. I think acquiring Strasberg is just a pipe dream at this point. I don’t see anyway he’s not locked up with Nats long term. Boras works well with the Nats and Stras is the hero of the World Series run. I just don’t see any chance of him leaving. I believe AJP will be making an addition to the rotation. I think he will go big game hunting for an ace. If he can’t land one, I could see a solid vet like Hamels added to the staff.
If we go after more of a solid vet than a TOR guy, then I would prefer that we go after Odorizzi or Porcello over Hamels.
#153 · November 2, 2019, 8:18 pm
Well, Strasburg has officially opted out of his contract. Let the bidding begin. My guess, is 5 years and $165M gets the job done. Maybe with a vesting option based on innings for a 6th year.
#154 · November 2, 2019, 8:32 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on November 2, 2019, 8:12 pmQuote from TatisJr on November 2, 2019, 7:22 pmI like the idea of acquiring Marte, but I don’t want him playing center at Petco. If Urías is moved to acquire an ace I’d like to get Villar as a fill in until one of the kids takes over. I think acquiring Strasberg is just a pipe dream at this point. I don’t see anyway he’s not locked up with Nats long term. Boras works well with the Nats and Stras is the hero of the World Series run. I just don’t see any chance of him leaving. I believe AJP will be making an addition to the rotation. I think he will go big game hunting for an ace. If he can’t land one, I could see a solid vet like Hamels added to the staff.
If we go after more of a solid vet than a TOR guy, then I would prefer that we go after Odorizzi or Porcello over Hamels.
I would prefer Odorizzi to Hamels as well. Off the top of my head, Odorizzi is the number 3 FA starter IMO. He’s only 29 to Hamels 35. There will a big difference in years/money in deals with those two.
#155 · November 2, 2019, 8:41 pm
Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 2, 2019, 6:49 pmhttps://birdswatcher.com/2019/11/02/baltimore-orioles-three-other-players-likely-traded/
Think about this-- sort of fits us like a glove...
We trade Myers $20 ($60/3) + Urias ($600K) + (remember fangrphs value for taking on Myers entire contract) - Potts + Weathers + Nix and we add Morejon + Allen + Naylor... (combined they make $22 mil in 2020)... so only +$9mil for Baltimore
FOR
All 3.. Mancini .297/.363/ .893 OPS vs RHP.. career wise is awesome too.. + Villar (career .735-- not great but a hot player, at least we know his low and high range of production- brdge player to Edwards and/or Miller/CJ) and Michael Owens (12.3 SO/9 ) caould be special for us.. Combined they make about $13mil in 2020.. Saves us $9 mil and fills 3 holes
By giving up prospect capital Padres are able to let Myers $$ all go away.. Urias upside is much greater than Villar and much cheaper and controllable... Naylors lefty stick will play great in Baltmore and Myers (Coors) likely rakes in this hitters paradise.. Weathers, Nix and Morejon are all talented enough to warrant top 10 prospect consideration in Baltimore's system and Potts in particular could be Top 5 for them as a position player
Why Padres do this- Mancini is a tremendous hitter vs both RHP and LHP and is under control until 2023. Givens is a legit Closer - has 1 game postseason experience (1 IP 0R 0.00 ERA) can be a set up man for Yates and be in the mix for closer down the road + Villar is versatile (like Urias) but at least gives us a range of what to expect on an avg year, a down year and a great year (2019) from him... Moves cost us some solid specs-- but not the very elite of the elite (unless your bullish on Urias- something AJP I dont think is).. so a lot to PAY for these 3 but we + those 3 to our base and all of the sudden we have something brewing.. We save net $9 mil (by using prospects instead of currency to rid ourselves of Myers) allowing us to still have $32 mil or so to fill the rest of the 26-- in a Perfect world we use that money on Marte (yes righty but also hits RHP well) and Sign our native son Starsburg. Use Margot in Pitt trade along with other pieces (thus saving us enough $$ to bring back Stanmen..
lineup after offseason
- Tatis Jr SS
- Marte CF
- Machado 3B
- Mancini RF
- Renfroe LF (vs RHP drops to 7)
- Hosmer 1B
- Mejia C
- Pitcher
- Villar 2B (like another leadoff man)
Bench- Hedges + Franchy + Garcia + France + ???
SP
1, Strasburg
2. Paddack
3. Lucchesi
4. Richards
5. Lamet
(Gore + Patino + Bolanos + Quantrill + Lauer all depth/AAA)
BP
Closer- Yates
Set up- Givens
7th Stanmen/Munoz/Castillo/Strahm
long/starter role Baez/Lauer--- (Bolanos/Quantrill/Patino and Gore all waiting their turn at AAA)
That my friends looks like a playoff roster to me-- with plenty of pop.. if Renfroe struggles vs RHP-- a deadline trade for a Veteran lefty stick always a possibility and there is always Trammell ...who should be ready at some point in 2020
All under 150 while still keeping our core Gore/Patino/CJ/Trammell/Campusano/Edwards top prospects in house
Baltimore is not going to trade those 3 as a group. They are going to maximize their return by trading them all separately.
#156 · November 2, 2019, 8:55 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on November 2, 2019, 8:12 pmQuote from TatisJr on November 2, 2019, 7:22 pmI like the idea of acquiring Marte, but I don’t want him playing center at Petco. If Urías is moved to acquire an ace I’d like to get Villar as a fill in until one of the kids takes over. I think acquiring Strasberg is just a pipe dream at this point. I don’t see anyway he’s not locked up with Nats long term. Boras works well with the Nats and Stras is the hero of the World Series run. I just don’t see any chance of him leaving. I believe AJP will be making an addition to the rotation. I think he will go big game hunting for an ace. If he can’t land one, I could see a solid vet like Hamels added to the staff.
If we go after more of a solid vet than a TOR guy, then I would prefer that we go after Odorizzi or Porcello over Hamels.
I don't really see much of a difference between those 3. None of them will actually improve us, they are just innings eaters. None of them should be signed to a long contract either. We have guys coming up who are going to be better than them, they may just be on innings restrictions. I don't think we will truly see an improvement in our staff unless we sign one of the big two: Cole or Strasburg.
#157 · November 2, 2019, 9:37 pm
Odorizzi was a 3.6 WAR pitcher in 2019. Hamels was 3.0 WAR pitcher in 2019. Paddack led the staff with 2.6 WAR. Yes both would be upgrades to 2020 staff. I hope I’m wrong, but I highly doubt Stras or Cole are coming to San Diego. I’d imagine Hamels will be getting a 2 year deal which I think is something the Padres would consider. At the age of 35, I don’t think too many teams will go beyond 2 years. I think Odorizzi will get a 5 year deal which I doubt AJP would do.
Quote from JasonE135 on November 2, 2019, 8:55 pmQuote from BoosterSD on November 2, 2019, 8:12 pmQuote from TatisJr on November 2, 2019, 7:22 pmI like the idea of acquiring Marte, but I don’t want him playing center at Petco. If Urías is moved to acquire an ace I’d like to get Villar as a fill in until one of the kids takes over. I think acquiring Strasberg is just a pipe dream at this point. I don’t see anyway he’s not locked up with Nats long term. Boras works well with the Nats and Stras is the hero of the World Series run. I just don’t see any chance of him leaving. I believe AJP will be making an addition to the rotation. I think he will go big game hunting for an ace. If he can’t land one, I could see a solid vet like Hamels added to the staff.
If we go after more of a solid vet than a TOR guy, then I would prefer that we go after Odorizzi or Porcello over Hamels.
I don't really see much of a difference between those 3. None of them will actually improve us, they are just innings eaters. None of them should be signed to a long contract either. We have guys coming up who are going to be better than them, they may just be on innings restrictions. I don't think we will truly see an improvement in our staff unless we sign one of the big two: Cole or Strasburg.
#158 · November 2, 2019, 9:47 pm
Strasburg had a back-ended contract that would have paid him 45 million in the last year (2023) of that contract. He would have received 25 mil in 2020 and 15 mil in both 2021 and 2022. He could still re-sign with the Nats should they restructure the contract and give him more money sooner. Curious to see where he ends up - would love him to come to San Diego!
I think adding Akiyama would be a good move but that won't probably happen until the winter meetings at the earliest, if it happens at all. In the meantime, Preller will be fielding calls from teams that need to reduce payroll or want several high-rated prospects for a rebuild. My mantra is prospects are just prospects until they show that can actually produce at the major league level. For sure, we won't part with Gore, Abrams or Patino but I would think almost anyone else is on the table depending upon the quality of the offer. It would have to be exceptional to give up Campusano or Trammell. I don't see any untouchables on the current roster, except for Machado and Tatis and no one is knocking on the door to get Myers or Hosmer. Yates would also be difficult to part with so the offer has to be very very good.
#159 · November 2, 2019, 11:33 pm
Quote from TatisJr on November 2, 2019, 9:37 pmOdorizzi was a 3.6 WAR pitcher in 2019. Hamels was 3.0 WAR pitcher in 2019. Paddack led the staff with 2.6 WAR. Yes both would be upgrades to 2020 staff. I hope I’m wrong, but I highly doubt Stras or Cole are coming to San Diego. I’d imagine Hamels will be getting a 2 year deal which I think is something the Padres would consider. At the age of 35, I don’t think too many teams will go beyond 2 years. I think Odorizzi will get a 5 year deal which I doubt AJP would do.
Quote from JasonE135 on November 2, 2019, 8:55 pmQuote from BoosterSD on November 2, 2019, 8:12 pmQuote from TatisJr on November 2, 2019, 7:22 pmI like the idea of acquiring Marte, but I don’t want him playing center at Petco. If Urías is moved to acquire an ace I’d like to get Villar as a fill in until one of the kids takes over. I think acquiring Strasberg is just a pipe dream at this point. I don’t see anyway he’s not locked up with Nats long term. Boras works well with the Nats and Stras is the hero of the World Series run. I just don’t see any chance of him leaving. I believe AJP will be making an addition to the rotation. I think he will go big game hunting for an ace. If he can’t land one, I could see a solid vet like Hamels added to the staff.
If we go after more of a solid vet than a TOR guy, then I would prefer that we go after Odorizzi or Porcello over Hamels.
I don't really see much of a difference between those 3. None of them will actually improve us, they are just innings eaters. None of them should be signed to a long contract either. We have guys coming up who are going to be better than them, they may just be on innings restrictions. I don't think we will truly see an improvement in our staff unless we sign one of the big two: Cole or Strasburg.
That just tells me that pitcher's WAR makes no sense. ERA is my favorite tool for pitchers. How many runs do you give up in a game? Seems like a good comparative measurement tool. Odorizzi's ERA was .17 higher than Paddack, but he had 19 more innings pitched. So I can see his WAR being higher just because of the added innings, but just a little. Hamels, however, has to be off. Paddack and Hamels were equal in innings pitched(Paddack actually had 2/3 on an inning more). Hamels had an ERA a half a run higher, had 9 fewer strikeouts and 2 less wins. How was he superior to Paddack? Besides, what I was saying is that neither one is a difference maker. Odorizzi over the last 3 years has averaged 155 innings and an ERA of 4.05. Hamels has averaged 160 with a 3.92. Who do those numbers look like? Very similar to Joey Lucchesie(143innings, 4.14 ERA), except Joey has only been pitching for 2 years and has the possibility of improvement. Hamlets and Odorizzi will only be getting worse. I think we can all agree that Lucchesie is not a difference maker.
#160 · November 3, 2019, 1:02 am
Agree that Strasburg back to the World Champion Nats is the most likely scenario and that makes Cole the only real TOR arm out there with a lot of teams bidding ... should get more than most suspect. Doubt the Padres win the bidding war. Actually OK with that and would use the money on improving one of the worst offenses in MLB.
If needed ... probably if they deal Lucchesi and/or Lauer for offense .... would try to sign a quality veteran on a one year deal as a bridge to Gore - Patino - Morejon - Lawson - Bolanos - Baez ... all COULD be vying for a starting slot in 2021 (or sooner). Really don’t want a ”nice” veteran option costing more than minimum while blocking the internal options (especially Gore and Patino).
Bet on the blue chip kids for pitching and spend the money on upgrading the OF.