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Off Season Thread

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 10, 2020, 6:49 am

Well at least it cost them more.....but now they have a good BP arm in addition.

It's just gonna be even more satisfying when they don't win the World Series again "with" Betts and have lost Verdugo/Downs/Wong and $$.

May have to root for the American League again...which I don't like but only do when playing LA.

 

So essentially LAD just exchanged top 100 prospects.  Depending how you look at the guys & where they're at, could argue LAD actually came out ahead (picturing multiple Pads chasing Graterol FB's outside of zone...).   Do lose an extra prospect in Wong who had a great 2nd 1/2 last year in AA...  it drives me insane how good & deep LAD's Farm ALWAYS is.  If I were any other team in MLB I would try to poach ANYONE from LAD's player development staff & try to figure out what their magic recipie in evaluation, development, etc is... they're just better than the other 29 teams at it!

FENN,  great evaluation of Pads deep bullpen situation...

I think Guerra gets more IP/appearances than any other RP in ST.   If he has a good ST, Pads have to keep him.  BUT if he has a Bad or even just "OK" ST, it is conceivable he goes unclaimed on waivers because he's out of options.  The key is to keep him in camp until last cuts, which they will anyway just to get him as much work as possible.

As a last cut off a mediocre camp with no options, another team would have to put him on their active roster for opening day & keep him there... so it's entirely possible the best case happens & he winds up in our system off roster, giving him a badly needed year to develop as a RP.

Quote from fenn68 on February 9, 2020, 2:05 pm
Quote from lafnboy13 on February 9, 2020, 12:33 pm

Isn't JBJ's contract just tendered? Aren't those non-guaranteed? Why wouldn't they just release him and be on the hook for the prorated version after ST?

That is the a partial escape valve for Boston.

IF Bradley is released by the 16th day of ST ... only on the hook for 30 days of his $11MM contract (only about $1.8MM and save just over $9MM).

IF released between then and the end of ST ... only on the hook for 45 days (only about $2.75 MM ... still saving about $8.25 MM).

Again Boston has over estimated the trade value of Bradley ... no team wants him at anything near $11 (and a FA after the season) and they all know the situation and IF they wanted him ... just wait for the release and sign him at a bargain rate. If not released, not a big loss.

I guess Boston took a $1.8MM gamble that someone would want Bradley ... lost.

Hold on... this "release him" option is surely what they WOULD have done if they hadn't just dealt Betts ( & Price=$$$)...

But Now that they have, do they have a viable option to fill another OF spot if they do release him?  Since already under luxury tax threshold and an already ticked off fanbase, I find it hard to believe they're just going to release him to save $??  It's why the Myers + a SP trade makes so much sense... and would go a long way towards explaining the Margot trade too.  Boston had interest in him, but now he's with a division rival....

Quote from fenn68 on February 10, 2020, 10:30 am

The Padres and veteran infielder Gordon Beckham are in agreement on a minor league contract, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). He’ll be in big league camp with the Friars this spring. Beckham is represented by CAA.

RHH 33 year old veteran INF that plays all the positions. Probably a very good AAA insurance policy for a back-up role in case of injuries if the Padres are in contention and not wanting to risk using a rookie. Good glove ... not much of a bat. He probably slots as a call-up RHH INF ahead of Miller if the need is early in 2020.

Looks like specifically injury insurance for Profar.  Probably an opt out end May or something...  AAA by my count has 7-8 guys for 3 INF positions + backup 1-2.  All but Matt Batten (AAA all year last year I think) are in MLB camp.

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 10, 2020, 10:50 am

FENN,  great evaluation of Pads deep bullpen situation...

I think Guerra gets more IP/appearances than any other RP in ST.   If he has a good ST, Pads have to keep him.  BUT if he has a Bad or even just "OK" ST, it is conceivable he goes unclaimed on waivers because he's out of options.  The key is to keep him in camp until last cuts, which they will anyway just to get him as much work as possible.

As a last cut off a mediocre camp with no options, another team would have to put him on their active roster for opening day & keep him there... so it's entirely possible the best case happens & he winds up in our system off roster, giving him a badly needed year to develop as a RP.

Yeh, Guerra will be one to watch in ST. Do think a BAD team with a BAD bullpen would still claim him off him waivers to see if they can get catching some lightning in a bottle given his FB/upside (there are some truly bad RP on ML rosters with no upside). Sort of a function of who their 13th pitcher is out of ST. Old game, they could then turn around a DFA him later ... hope he clears waivers ... and work with him for the year in the minors.

If I were a Baltimore or Detroit .... I claim him.

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 10, 2020, 10:56 am
Quote from fenn68 on February 9, 2020, 2:05 pm
Quote from lafnboy13 on February 9, 2020, 12:33 pm

Isn't JBJ's contract just tendered? Aren't those non-guaranteed? Why wouldn't they just release him and be on the hook for the prorated version after ST?

That is the a partial escape valve for Boston.

IF Bradley is released by the 16th day of ST ... only on the hook for 30 days of his $11MM contract (only about $1.8MM and save just over $9MM).

IF released between then and the end of ST ... only on the hook for 45 days (only about $2.75 MM ... still saving about $8.25 MM).

Again Boston has over estimated the trade value of Bradley ... no team wants him at anything near $11 (and a FA after the season) and they all know the situation and IF they wanted him ... just wait for the release and sign him at a bargain rate. If not released, not a big loss.

I guess Boston took a $1.8MM gamble that someone would want Bradley ... lost.

Hold on... this "release him" option is surely what they WOULD have done if they hadn't just dealt Betts ( & Price=$$$)...

But Now that they have, do they have a viable option to fill another OF spot if they do release him?  Since already under luxury tax threshold and an already ticked off fanbase, I find it hard to believe they're just going to release him to save $??  It's why the Myers + a SP trade makes so much sense... and would go a long way towards explaining the Margot trade too.  Boston had interest in him, but now he's with a division rival....

After the Bett/Price deal the "release him" scenario really only comes into play IF Boston wants to add some pricey piece (e.g. Myers) ... stay under the tax threshold ... keep some flexibility for other adds.

Boston would get more (or better) prospects tied with Myers if they take more of his contract and they could do that by releasing Bradley and saving $9MMish. So, would the "better return" be more valuable than Bradley for one year?

====

Did hear a report that this is the first time since 1960 that the Red Sox are heading to opening day with 3 LHH OF (Benintendi, Bradley, Verdugo) ... no real likely internal candidates to bump them. It is Fenway Park ... Green monster ... does not seem to fit. Their projected line-up has 5 LHH once you add Devers and Moreland.

With a poor farm system it would make some sense for Boston to add Myers (RHH in Fenway) and pick-up some legit ML ready (near-ready) prospects ... cash money is not their issue, it is just playing around the tax threshold.

Considering all the additions to the Bullpen I really don't want Perdomo or Wingenter anywhere near the ML Pen.

Wingenter may still develop into a guy we keep in SD but I just don't think Perdomo is one of those guys.

We need the best arms we have and I think that includes Munoz in the Majors.

I'd prefer Strahm/Quantrill as the LH/RH "long men".

I'm sure some feel differently but I just don't think Perdomo is dependable enough.

 

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on February 10, 2020, 11:04 am
Quote from Brian Connelly on February 10, 2020, 10:50 am

FENN,  great evaluation of Pads deep bullpen situation...

I think Guerra gets more IP/appearances than any other RP in ST.   If he has a good ST, Pads have to keep him.  BUT if he has a Bad or even just "OK" ST, it is conceivable he goes unclaimed on waivers because he's out of options.  The key is to keep him in camp until last cuts, which they will anyway just to get him as much work as possible.

As a last cut off a mediocre camp with no options, another team would have to put him on their active roster for opening day & keep him there... so it's entirely possible the best case happens & he winds up in our system off roster, giving him a badly needed year to develop as a RP.

Yeh, Guerra will be one to watch in ST. Do think a BAD team with a BAD bullpen would still claim him off him waivers to see if they can get catching some lightning in a bottle given his FB/upside (there are some truly bad RP on ML rosters with no upside). Sort of a function of who their 13th pitcher is out of ST. Old game, they could then turn around a DFA him later ... hope he clears waivers ... and work with him for the year in the minors.

If I were a Baltimore or Detroit .... I claim him.

You're probably right.   But on trying to win now team, he's definitely got to earn what looks like 1 of at best 2 spots open.  If more than 1 team wanted him on waivers, might get a minor return in trade.

Quote from fenn68 on February 10, 2020, 11:19 am
Quote from Brian Connelly on February 10, 2020, 10:56 am
Quote from fenn68 on February 9, 2020, 2:05 pm
Quote from lafnboy13 on February 9, 2020, 12:33 pm

Isn't JBJ's contract just tendered? Aren't those non-guaranteed? Why wouldn't they just release him and be on the hook for the prorated version after ST?

That is the a partial escape valve for Boston.

IF Bradley is released by the 16th day of ST ... only on the hook for 30 days of his $11MM contract (only about $1.8MM and save just over $9MM).

IF released between then and the end of ST ... only on the hook for 45 days (only about $2.75 MM ... still saving about $8.25 MM).

Again Boston has over estimated the trade value of Bradley ... no team wants him at anything near $11 (and a FA after the season) and they all know the situation and IF they wanted him ... just wait for the release and sign him at a bargain rate. If not released, not a big loss.

I guess Boston took a $1.8MM gamble that someone would want Bradley ... lost.

Hold on... this "release him" option is surely what they WOULD have done if they hadn't just dealt Betts ( & Price=$$$)...

But Now that they have, do they have a viable option to fill another OF spot if they do release him?  Since already under luxury tax threshold and an already ticked off fanbase, I find it hard to believe they're just going to release him to save $??  It's why the Myers + a SP trade makes so much sense... and would go a long way towards explaining the Margot trade too.  Boston had interest in him, but now he's with a division rival....

After the Bett/Price deal the "release him" scenario really only comes into play IF Boston wants to add some pricey piece (e.g. Myers) ... stay under the tax threshold ... keep some flexibility for other adds.

Boston would get more (or better) prospects tied with Myers if they take more of his contract and they could do that by releasing Bradley and saving $9MMish. So, would the "better return" be more valuable than Bradley for one year?

====

Did hear a report that this is the first time since 1960 that the Red Sox are heading to opening day with 3 LHH OF (Benintendi, Bradley, Verdugo) ... no real likely internal candidates to bump them. It is Fenway Park ... Green monster ... does not seem to fit. Their projected line-up has 5 LHH once you add Devers and Moreland.

With a poor farm system it would make some sense for Boston to add Myers (RHH in Fenway) and pick-up some legit ML ready (near-ready) prospects ... cash money is not their issue, it is just playing around the tax threshold.

I get that Red Sox could use that argument of  "we can save 9 MM anyway without a trade".... But in the space in-between those 2 steps, there is no OF to fill the spot, which would give leverage to the Pads or any other team.   The Padres WERE obviously willing to add to 2020 payroll in the Betts negotiations, and would "only" be adding a similar amount of $ if they just added the balance of JBJ by claiming him off release, minus the elimination of Margot's salary.  Boston would save $$, but be down an OF... leading to talking with Pads.

Pads need an ideally LH "true" CF, to bridge the gap to Trammell or Cordero.   Red Sox need ideally RH SP & an ideally RH OF capable of multiple positions.  There is a really good needs/basis match for a trade; especially when considering each team's finanical needs:  Boston worried about $$ this year, Pads more focused on $$ savings in 21-22.

Obviously Sox could find a lot of other OF cheaper than Myers, but he is worth "something" on a standalone basis + Bradley's $... and the key is Pads one of very very few teams with deep enough SP to be able to trade a MLB ready/experienced SP at this late stage of offseason.

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 10, 2020, 11:26 am

Considering all the additions to the Bullpen I really don't want Perdomo or Wingenter anywhere near the ML Pen.

Wingenter nay still develop into a guy we keep in SD but I just don't think Perdomo is one of those guys.

We need the best arms we have and I think that includes Munoz in the Majors.

I'd prefer Strahm/Quantrill as the LH/RH "long men".

I'm sure some feel differently but I just don't think Perdomo is dependable enough.

 

 

 

FENN's good analysis of the bullpen spots would leave ONLY 1 spot for:  Quantrill, Perdomo, Wingenter, Munoz OR Guerrra.

I agree with you that Quantrill > Perdomo; thrived in the RP/SP role last year, and could function REALLY well as an opener vs a RH heavy top of lineup.   No issue with Perdomo & Wingenter being depth in AAA, but as discussed above, this would force Guerra to go through Waivers & could lose him.

Yates, Pomeranz, Stammen, Strahm (L), Pagan, & IMO Pierce Johnson (just guaranteed 5 MM) are locks unless someone is traded.  But not convinced Jose Castillo is after missing all last year, even though he is the only other LH besides Strahm.  True camp battle, but if he's not clear cut one of the top 8 in ST, he could easily be in AAA opening day to knock the rust off.  Nominal minors assignment/s over the course of year would remove any chance of him hitting Super 2 threshold next season too.