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Off Season Thread

LAD is motivated to draw up our price. I wonder if this is why the Verdugo rumor circulated with so much ease.

I am not sure that Campusano has been offered. All I have heard is that Campusano was of interest to Boston. I would think a pitching prospect in addition to the ML players is more likely. Depth on our side, need on theirs.

One way or another Mookie's ass will be dealt this week haha (even artificial optimism inspires hope).

Considering LAD's Friedman has the reputation of going to a limit ... take it or leave it ... and if they don't take it just pass on the deal. Fiscally responsible while in TB and nothing has changed in LA. Not a guy to get bid up by assumed competition for a player. (see Harper, see Cole). So a very good chance Friedman has put out a couple of options for Boston ... ball in their court ... but he is done.

Now considering Bloom worked for Friedman in TB ... he has to know how Friedman works and should know the offers are not moving up from LA. So, apparently they are not good enough to just accept without working the Padres.

Same thinking may suggest the Padres' offer either is not superior to LA's or it is superior but milking this bidding may get Preller to go up (even if in reality he is already the best offer). Preller does have the reputation for overpaying on ML types and, maybe has more urgency to make the deal and, if the LAD offer is "in the bank" ... no need for Boston to hurry and keep working Preller to overpay.

Big question has to be how truly motivated is LA for this deal ... like to get him yes ... but why give up a lot when the NL West is in your pocket and for 1 year have to shell out $27MM. Those offers from LA my in reality be a lot less than most have suggested. Frankly, if they were going "big" ... really should be going all in for 2 years of Lindor.

So, from one perspective, SD has a real good chance if LA is not all that motivated beyond their bid. On the other hand this could be a 2015 disaster like dealing Trea Turner for Wil Myers (at least indirectly) and Yasmani Grandal (who like it or not he is one of the top catchers in MLB) for Matt Kemp.

Quote from Ben Davey on February 3, 2020, 11:10 pm

The thing with building a farm is that they are to be used to get you to the World Series.  In the case of some of the players, their usefullness might revolve around them being traded to give us an upgrade.  The Padres can only have so many players on the active roster.

Easiest example is Edwards and Arias.  If you believe Tatis and Machado will be the left side of the infield for years to come what do you do with Arias and Edwards?  Neither are in a position to help the club now, and even if/when they do make the majors it probably wont be at their first positions.  So what do you do?  You trade them in the right deal.  There is no rush to get rid of them, but the Padres thought getting Pham was too good to pass up and gave up Edwards.

Quite a few scouts think that Naylor's bad still profiles as a solid MLB player (a DH but still a solid mid order bat).  If you are the Padres, does Naylor even make the team?  Do you risk his defense?  He was a former top 100 prospect, still really young, what do you do with him?

As someone who extensively covers the minors, it would sting to give up four or five prospects for Betts, but if we are playing in the WS in 8 months, its hard to say it wouldnt be worth it.

And FWIW if they could pull off a deal of Campusano, Morejon, Naylor, Myers and 20 mil for Betts and maybe a rookie level prospect, I would be all for it.  I think the Red Sox would do Naylor and Campy for Betts straight up, but if you want to unload Myers you have to add more.  Yay for negative value contracts.

 

And this is exactly spot on to why I say go for Betts. Do I want to deal those guys? No, of course not as I do believe they have value going forward. But that is what it takes to get value, even if for one season.

I am one of the big believers in thinking adding Betts gets the Padres over the hump and into the playoffs.

The reason is below :

I believe that Mookie, alone adds 6-8 wins. I believe Pham adds 2 wins. I believe that a full season of Tatis adds another 2 wins. Hedges should not hit any worse than last season and, on top of it, Mejia's bat will be much improved as should his defense. So the catching position SHOULD net us an additional 2 wins. Then you have the pitching rotation - subtract the revolving 5th spot with a healthy and consistent pitcher (add 1-2 wins) Davies vs Lauer (1 win). Bullpen (additional 1-2 wins) Profar vs. Kinsler/rest of second base (2 wins). Minus games lost due to health (-3) estimated between rotation, Pham and Tatis. Then the Tingler/Green factor (+3-4 games). Is that not a reasonable take or is that a pure homer take? That puts the Padres around a 15-20 game improvement now obviously things happen as that is life (regression as everyone as alluded to). Now if the Padres at the All-Star break are in this and they can get some more resources together to get a TOR, then that is even more wins to add to the table.

Now in terms of mortgaging the future. If the Padres feel this move gets them into the playoffs with a legitimate chance at making a run, they need to do it, 100%. It would stimulate winning back into the fan base and the city will get behind this team especially with the Chargers gone. So the argument is why give up the prospects to do it? Personally, I love Campusano and would hate to see him go as I think he has the chance to be a stud after his year in Elsinore. Now, how far off is he from the big leagues? A year? Two years? Say he is two years away, will he be better than Mejia/Hedges in year 3 (the rookie season)? Year 4? I think you have to take that into consideration. How about Trammel? Understandably, we gave up some capital for him. I think he positively impacts the team more than Campusano does in the near future mainly due to position. Arias? Ben hit it above. Naylor? Still a good trade chip. Will the DH be here sooner than later? Still a relatively unknown.

The last part of the Mookie deal: signability. Do the Padres realistically think they would have a shot of signing in San Diego long term? If so, then you are willing to give up a bit more if the plan is to make a real effort to sign him. So my thoughts on signing Mookie (and maybe he doesn't entertain an extension) but if he is set to make 27 million this season, would an offer to tear up the last arbitration year to offer him a 6 year deal with opt-out after season 2, 4 and 5 entice him while giving him the chance at free agency after years 28, 30 and 31? Structure would be 37aav for the first two years, 38 the third 40 the 4th and 5th seasons respectively ( that is 5 years and 192 mil AAV of 38.4 mil) plus he can get to free agency with a shot at getting a 7 year 210 million deal before the end to his career which would total 402 million made his final 12 seasons. Think about how much Donaldson got as a 34-year-old. Add the anticipated inflation and ability for a younger player to secure that type of deal and I think it is something he would strongly consider especially if we tear up this last season.

Even if we can't extend Mookie, I think getting him for one season by subtracting Campusano or Trammel, and 30 ish million of Myers contract, Morejon, and Naylor/Quantrill/Lucchesi as Ben said is a no brainer. (what it will take who knows in terms of eating Myers contract.

 

Allegedly LAD and Boston are in advanced talks regarding Mookie.

Well shit. Unless Price and Verdugo fail physicals, this sucks

I should be interesting to see the money flow ... what LA takes and what Boston eats ... Betts and Price this year alone are $59MM then two more years of Price at $32MM each.

Then add the implication of a 3rd team potentially providing a prospect to Boston ... rumors suggest it may be MINN. Again money may be in play but could Price (if he passes the physical) just keep on moving to MINN ... a team that needs SP and has a couple of really nice prospects?

more to come I guess.

Whew ... no wonder this took time:

8:29pm: In a stunning development, Rosenthal tweets that if the Betts deal is completed, Joc Pederson will go to the Angels. It’s not clear whether that’s a separate trade or yet another layer to this same transaction, but it’s a fascinating ripple effect regardless of how it’s technically structured.

8:26pm: The Twins are indeed the third team in the trade, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.

=====

LAA have a pretty full OF ... need SP ... precursor to another LAA deal? Pederson is a FA after the season.

We are never going to outspend the Dodgers. They took the contracts of both Betts and Price. Wow. So Boston not only didn't have to take on the Myers contract, they got ride of Price's contract. Not even close.

The only way we are going to beat the Dodgers is with great pitching. I think with Paddock, Gore, Patino, Morejon, etc we can be there soon.

I am really glad we didn't give up Campusano. We are going to have draft well and develop our own stars. So when we hit on a great prospect like Campusano, we just can't trade him away for a one year rental. I think 2021 will be our year. I am relieved.

This pretty much cements a Yankees/Dodgers Series.

Yuck!

While I’m glad we kept Campy and we didn’t go crazy for 1 season of Betts I’m sick and tired of the “big boys” having all the fun.

Once again the rich get richer.

I guess we just need to concentrate on taking a step forward this season and hoping 2021 is our biggest jump forward.

 

Let's see what happens in the next 72 hours. This deal may have been holding up others for SD.