Quote from Brian Connelly on February 3, 2020, 4:30 pm

Quote from WindsorUK on February 3, 2020, 1:48 pm

I'm with 3finger on this.

If the Pads are discussing anything relatively similar to what Brian suggested, there is just NO WAY this deal makes sense for us. Whilst I'd love to have an MVP caliber player join Machado and Tatis( MVP caliber players themselves), I'm not selling the farm( LITERALLY!) for a one year rental.

If the stars all align, I believe we could make a push for the post season with Betts in the line-up. But when 2021 comes around and he's gone, our lack of depth( if we send 5 or 6 guys to Boston) could push us back down the ranks again. It's a looooong season - we need as many able bodied arms and bats as possible.

I think Will Myers has a bounce back year, I think Lamet and Richards will be solid, and that baseball will be good in San Diego this summer.

 

Windsor & 3finger... if you're not willing to trade a quantity of guys outside the top 100 for an MLB MVP + a comp pick... what prospect/s of ours IN the top 100 are you willing to trade for him?  Let me guess... none.  It's OK to think 1 year of Betts is the wrong move to make, but it's just being pure "Homer" to not acknowledge that a guy as good as Betts even @ 1/27 IS worth a top 100 PROSPECT+ or more (i.e. quantity)

I think you guys are hung up on the "only 1 year" of Betts, and not considering enough how removing Myers transforms & opens up both the roster and future payroll....  NOT making the trade actually limits what the team can do next year MORE than making it does!   At some point if Myers can't get more consistent, you just give up & eat the remainder of the contract, but for now if he's on the team, you HAVE to play him full time to try to build his present//future value back up... which blocks a young player from developing there & seeing what we have

Quote from BoosterSD on February 3, 2020, 4:34 pm

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 3, 2020, 12:56 pm

Why is everybody so hell bent on HELPING Boston out...they need pitching PRESENT and FUTURE ?

I dont think its everyone is wanting to help BOS out, they want SD to get better. In order to deal with BOS, you need to understand their needs as well. It is prudent to give as little as possible to BOS and get as much as we can back as well. But we as fans have a good, general idea of what BOS wants. That is luxury tax savings and young, controllable players. We have a good, general idea of what SD wants, a winning record, a run at a playoff/wild card spot, and rid of Myers.

So in order for all of these things to happen, there has to be something in it for BOS, and something in it for SD. Of course we are all reading what we can on the net, and then trying to formulate ideas that we think can make it happen for SD.

I agree, if it is too much for SD, then bail. But that is where rub is, isnt it. Yours and others on here, have different ideas on what is too much.

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 3, 2020, 4:38 pm

YOU have decided it will take Myers, Naylor, Morejon, , Torrens/Hunt, & Lucchesi AND OR Quantrill plus draft picks AND $45 $15-30 million and dubbed it a bad deal.

I don’t think anyone here would disagree with you.

I would!   I'm the one who proposed it  🙂

In my defense, FENN suggests & likely right it's "not enough" to beat LAD's offer.  So if he's right, then I am too 😉

Quote from Jeremy Hill on February 3, 2020, 4:58 pm

A little late to the party on this if reports about a deal being imminent are to be believed, but I'll post it anyway. I think there are two trades to keep in mind with regards to Mookie. The first is the Goldschmidt trade which is reportedly being used as the bar in the current trade talks. In that trade the Dbacks got back 2 young major leaguers in Luke Weaver and Carson Kelly, a decent prospect in Andy Young, and a comp B pick. The rumored Dodgers package would seem to match up with this with Alex Verdugo and Caleb Ferguson as the young major leaguers and a higher rated prospect in Jeter Downs making up for the lack of a pick.

Looking at the rumored Padres packages it seems like Quantrill or Lucchesi and Margot or Naylor would serve as the 2 young major leaguers. We also have a comp A pick that could be included and any number of prospects from our second tier that could round out the package. However, that doesn't account for the Wil Myers factor. There's a 34 million dollar gap between what Myers and Mookie are owed. Since I think one of the primary goals is to save as much of the money owed Myers as possible I think we should be willing to pay 15-20 of that. The difference between the Comp B pick and our Comp A would make up for some of the remainder, but there would still be a pretty sizable gap left. That's why I think some of our top guys like Campusano have popped up in rumors. The prospect is being upgraded to make up for the money gap.

The second trade I think you have to look at in regards to Mookie is the Machado trade. From the Padres perspective I think that's the bar you would set if you traded for Mookie, weren't in contention at the deadline and decided to shop him. The Orioles got back Yusniel Diaz who was ranked #84 in the top 100 by MLB pipeline at the time as the headliner. They also got back Dean Kremer, Zach Pop, and Rylan Bannon who were all decent prospects in the middle of good seasons at the High-A level. Breyvic Valera also went to the O's and got 40 ABs with them before they moved on at the end of the season. That's a rough idea of what you might be able to recoup if things don't work out which I think has to be factored in to the decision.

Having said all that if I was AJ any deal involving our top prospects with the possible exception of Trammell would be a pass. Even with Mookie we would still have questions in the rotation, at one of the OF spots, C, 2b, and a less than great situation at 1b. If we really wanted to make a deal I would offer up one of our fringe bullpen guys to make up the cash difference without including our top prospects. Our bullpen is loaded and the Red Sox bullpen struggled last season. Someone like Guerra, Perdomo, or Reyes could appeal to them. Whoever isn't traded between Quantrill and Lucchesi becomes the 5th starter with Gore, Patino, Baez, Morejon, Lawson and Bolanos all potentially ready to challenge for a spot later in the year. Mookie replaces Margot or Naylor with the other left to compete with Grisham and Cordero with Trammell, Olivares, and Ona getting ready to enter the mix as well. We would essentially be trading some of our depth to massively upgrade one position and save some of the money owed Myers. Still, we would be relying on a lot of unproven talent and if we were going to push that many chips in it might make more sense to wait until we have a clearer picture.

On a different note I wonder if we could get the Red Sox to flip Verdugo to us if they trade Mookie to the Dodgers.  Maybe something like Myers, Naylor or Margot, and Quantrill or Lucchesi for Eovaldi and Verdugo.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 3, 2020, 5:06 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on February 3, 2020, 4:58 pm

A little late to the party on this if reports about a deal being imminent are to be believed, but I'll post it anyway. I think there are two trades to keep in mind with regards to Mookie. The first is the Goldschmidt trade which is reportedly being used as the bar in the current trade talks. In that trade the Dbacks got back 2 young major leaguers in Luke Weaver and Carson Kelly, a decent prospect in Andy Young, and a comp B pick. The rumored Dodgers package would seem to match up with this with Alex Verdugo and Caleb Ferguson as the young major leaguers and a higher rated prospect in Jeter Downs making up for the lack of a pick.

Looking at the rumored Padres packages it seems like Quantrill or Lucchesi and Margot or Naylor would serve as the 2 young major leaguers. We also have a comp A pick that could be included and any number of prospects from our second tier that could round out the package. However, that doesn't account for the Wil Myers factor. There's a 34 million dollar gap between what Myers and Mookie are owed. Since I think one of the primary goals is to save as much of the money owed Myers as possible I think we should be willing to pay 15-20 of that. The difference between the Comp B pick and our Comp A would make up for some of the remainder, but there would still be a pretty sizable gap left. That's why I think some of our top guys like Campusano have popped up in rumors. The prospect is being upgraded to make up for the money gap.

The second trade I think you have to look at in regards to Mookie is the Machado trade. From the Padres perspective I think that's the bar you would set if you traded for Mookie, weren't in contention at the deadline and decided to shop him. The Orioles got back Yusniel Diaz who was ranked #84 in the top 100 by MLB pipeline at the time as the headliner. They also got back Dean Kremer, Zach Pop, and Rylan Bannon who were all decent prospects in the middle of good seasons at the High-A level. Breyvic Valera also went to the O's and got 40 ABs with them before they moved on at the end of the season. That's a rough idea of what you might be able to recoup if things don't work out which I think has to be factored in to the decision.

Having said all that if I was AJ any deal involving our top prospects with the possible exception of Trammell would be a pass. Even with Mookie we would still have questions in the rotation, at one of the OF spots, C, 2b, and a less than great situation at 1b. If we really wanted to make a deal I would offer up one of our fringe bullpen guys to make up the cash difference without including our top prospects. Our bullpen is loaded and the Red Sox bullpen struggled last season. Someone like Guerra, Perdomo, or Reyes could appeal to them. Whoever isn't traded between Quantrill and Lucchesi becomes the 5th starter with Gore, Patino, Baez, Morejon, Lawson and Bolanos all potentially ready to challenge for a spot later in the year. Mookie replaces Margot or Naylor with the other left to compete with Grisham and Cordero with Trammell, Olivares, and Ona getting ready to enter the mix as well. We would essentially be trading some of our depth to massively upgrade one position and save some of the money owed Myers. Still, we would be relying on a lot of unproven talent and if we were going to push that many chips in it might make more sense to wait until we have a clearer picture.

On a different note I wonder if we could get the Red Sox to flip Verdugo to us if they trade Mookie to the Dodgers.  Maybe something like Myers, Naylor or Margot, and Quantrill or Lucchesi for Eovaldi and Verdugo.

there are reports out of Boston that RedSox are concerned about Verdugo's Back--- But I like the flip idea-- BUT would prefer Benintendi to Verdugo just cause if the BACK is a concern to Red Sox nation-- its a concern to me as well...

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 3, 2020, 5:10 pm

Just so I can clear the air a bit....I am opposed to massive players for 1 guy when the long view has been sold that the farm system is our future and that we contend for years. My trade of Meyers and the 6 or 7 was in jest and only made to show how silly people get when trying to make a trade that has no LONG term benefit other than clearing Meyers out and his money.

Throw names around, crazy contracts, get caught up in WAR ( nothing more than a agent driven tool to drive up player salary ) and how one guy can take you from the outhouse to penthouse. What kind of mind set would Betts have playing in SD for ONE year knowing he is leaving.....would he play all out and risk his bigger payday or would he throttle back and get paid his 27 million and go through the motions?

Be honest....what would any of you do ?

The Padres have always been on this roller coaster with no long term vision....Preller has made the farm system something that should be able to become a plug and play operation so that it's never a rebuild anymore but rather a reload from our own resources. Spend money or trade for  a guy that puts you over the top with a contract that makes sense from a financial standpoint especially if you are that ONE player away from running the table......Kevin Brown was that guy, Garvey, Nettles and Gossage were those guys but this team is farther away than those teams were in my opinion....San Diego is like the Twins...smaller market that has to do it smarter and better than others.

Selling the farm for a guy that in my opinion will not live up to the hype and is just killing time until he can cash in is a non starter for me and just to play devils advocate....weird things happen in baseball like fouling a ball off your kneecap or foot that breaks a bone or getting hit in the hand and having surgery......how much would it hurt this franchise to pay all that money out for a player and a contract for one playing elsewhere and ship away young starting controllable pitching and have it all be down the drain because of injury

Yeah I know it could happen anytime to anyone but to make that big of a move for a 1 year rental when this team as built could not beat the Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, Nationals, even with Betts

Home town hype is great but at some point a little realism needs to creep in.....I'm just glad I'm not the GM.....most of you are glad also 🙂

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 3, 2020, 6:14 pm

Here is an interesting take on big money contracts and how it applies to teams....it can be a killer to smaller market teams. Read the whole article and comments

https://sports.yahoo.com/mookie-betts-35-million-anyone-162946531.html

Quote from Ben Davey on February 3, 2020, 11:10 pm

The thing with building a farm is that they are to be used to get you to the World Series.  In the case of some of the players, their usefullness might revolve around them being traded to give us an upgrade.  The Padres can only have so many players on the active roster.

Easiest example is Edwards and Arias.  If you believe Tatis and Machado will be the left side of the infield for years to come what do you do with Arias and Edwards?  Neither are in a position to help the club now, and even if/when they do make the majors it probably wont be at their first positions.  So what do you do?  You trade them in the right deal.  There is no rush to get rid of them, but the Padres thought getting Pham was too good to pass up and gave up Edwards.

Quite a few scouts think that Naylor's bad still profiles as a solid MLB player (a DH but still a solid mid order bat).  If you are the Padres, does Naylor even make the team?  Do you risk his defense?  He was a former top 100 prospect, still really young, what do you do with him?

As someone who extensively covers the minors, it would sting to give up four or five prospects for Betts, but if we are playing in the WS in 8 months, its hard to say it wouldnt be worth it.

And FWIW if they could pull off a deal of Campusano, Morejon, Naylor, Myers and 20 mil for Betts and maybe a rookie level prospect, I would be all for it.  I think the Red Sox would do Naylor and Campy for Betts straight up, but if you want to unload Myers you have to add more.  Yay for negative value contracts.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 4, 2020, 6:13 am

Was thinking about why other teams aren't interested in Betts.

Started thinking about teams ready to "win now".

Thought about the Angels.....could you imagine?

Why not go all in for 2020?Even if you lose Betts after the season you're still set going forward with Trout/Rendon/Ohtani/Adell.

Could probably get Betts in a deal involving Marsh and Goodwin and a couple other prospects.

Could you imagine a lineup with Betts/Trout/Rendon/Ohtani?

Even if just for one season.

YIKES!