Quote from 3fingersplit on February 2, 2020, 11:53 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 2, 2020, 11:21 am

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 2, 2020, 8:56 am

I've said it before....sometimes the best deal is the one you are willing to walk away from....Boston wants way to much. I say let em choke on their payroll and lose Betts for a comp pick and keep that terrible contract for Price.

Meyers and Naylor plus 15 million to offset Meyers contract for Betts and his 27 million for a 1 yr rental. Not a chance we take Price and his contract and arm problems.

That's the offer and it has an expiration date

 

I seriously doubt they let him go for just the Comp. pick.

If they keep him I see them still not making the playoffs and trading him at the deadline ala Machado to the Dodgers.

Somebody will want him and I hope it’s not a team we are battling for a WC spot.

 

 

 

Trading him as a 2 month rental might get them something as most of his 27 million will have been paid so yeah....something is better than nothing as in only the comp pick when he leaves but unless a team is that one player away it is hard to justify giving Boston what they want for a 1 year rental that most teams could not or would not try to extend....Betts wants 400 million over 10-12 years which is just plain stupid for any owner to do unless there is a team buyout in the contract....10-12 years is a contract of diminishing return....just ask the Angels.

Him going to a team the Padres are in battle with for a WC ? San Diego is going to need to hit the 90-95 win mark which is a 20-25 game improvement over last year to be there. Considering San Diego has a total history of playing at a .463 clip over 50 years and coming off a 70 win season....chances of 90-95 wins with this roster might be somewhere between slim and none and slim just walked out the door.

82 wins would be the first winning season since 2010

I just don't see it...hope I'm way wrong but just not seeing it getting to that 90-95 win range....would Betts add 20-25 wins ?

No

Quote from JasonE135 on February 2, 2020, 12:28 pm

I doubt any deal gets done. The Sox and every other team with rentals to sell refuse to accept that their products have little value.

Boston has a lot of older players with injury and production concerns all over their roster and no replacements in sight. They really want to get rid of Price but they don't have anyone to replace him. Lucchesie  (or Quantrill) can provide equal value at $32 million cheaper so they will have the ability to trade him later.

When a team is up against the cap, they cannot buy high quality replacements with money(assuming they are not willing to go over). The only way to add big time new talent to their team is to grow it themselves so they can control it cheap. That is where Campusano comes in.

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 2, 2020, 1:51 pm

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 2, 2020, 11:53 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 2, 2020, 11:21 am

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 2, 2020, 8:56 am

I've said it before....sometimes the best deal is the one you are willing to walk away from....Boston wants way to much. I say let em choke on their payroll and lose Betts for a comp pick and keep that terrible contract for Price.

Meyers and Naylor plus 15 million to offset Meyers contract for Betts and his 27 million for a 1 yr rental. Not a chance we take Price and his contract and arm problems.

That's the offer and it has an expiration date

 

I seriously doubt they let him go for just the Comp. pick.

If they keep him I see them still not making the playoffs and trading him at the deadline ala Machado to the Dodgers.

Somebody will want him and I hope it’s not a team we are battling for a WC spot.

 

 

 

Trading him as a 2 month rental might get them something as most of his 27 million will have been paid so yeah....something is better than nothing as in only the comp pick when he leaves but unless a team is that one player away it is hard to justify giving Boston what they want for a 1 year rental that most teams could not or would not try to extend....Betts wants 400 million over 10-12 years which is just plain stupid for any owner to do unless there is a team buyout in the contract....10-12 years is a contract of diminishing return....just ask the Angels.

Him going to a team the Padres are in battle with for a WC ? San Diego is going to need to hit the 90-95 win mark which is a 20-25 game improvement over last year to be there. Considering San Diego has a total history of playing at a .463 clip over 50 years and coming off a 70 win season....chances of 90-95 wins with this roster might be somewhere between slim and none and slim just walked out the door.

82 wins would be the first winning season since 2010

I just don't see it...hope I'm way wrong but just not seeing it getting to that 90-95 win range....would Betts add 20-25 wins ?

No

Almost every year a team not “expected” to win does well enough to make the playoffs.

Why can’t it be us in 2020?

I’m not gonna go into the season expecting 75 wins and to finish 3rd in our Division and miss the playoffs.

 

 

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 2, 2020, 2:56 pm

Expectations will kill you.....13 of the last 20 years the Padres have finished 5th ( Last ) - 8 times and 4th - 5 times

2010 they won 90 and got 2nd place in the West but didn't make the playoffs

I'll stick with just over .500.......82-85 wins....12 to 15 games better than last year. At least they would be trending the right way. Hopefully they have "that" season where everything lines up and all is good in the universe. Winning at home would be nice.....36-45 last year...Ouch

Quote from JasonE135 on February 2, 2020, 3:33 pm

In the first half last year we looked like a possible playoff team. We are definitely better this year. If things break right we can make the playoffs. If they don't, we won't. At least we are finally getting to the point where we have the possibility.

Quote from fenn68 on February 2, 2020, 4:00 pm

Padres had one of the worst offenses in baseball last season ... so substantial improvement is needed to really contend. So did a quick look at wRC+ by position for 2019 and the likely starters for 2020:

C .... 65 ........ Mejia 96 (60%) / Hedges 47 (40%) yields 70 ... slight improvement

1B ...92 ......... Hosmer 91 ... no reason to see a change in Hosmer and who is the platoon option if platooning

2B... 84 ........ Profar 89 ... not as much improvement as expected

SS .. 121 ........ Tatis 150 ... major improvement IF he can stay at the level once ML pitchers "know him"

3B .. 102 ....... Machado 108 ... couldn't handle PETCO but outperform his history AWAY .. could go either way

LF .. 92 ......... Pham 121 .... hopefully he can handle PETCO ... knows the NL for STL.

CF .. 89 ......... Grisham 92  (75%)/ Margot 82 (25%) ... yields 92 ... no change (if Grisham can hit in PETCO)

RF .. 101 ........ Myers 96 ... downgrade from Reyes / Renfroe

Sure can argue they all can get better ... or all can get worse ... or some mix that gets them about were they were in 2019. With health ... think there will be improvement with Pham and a full season of Tatis and that will add wins but not enough to get above the low 80s even with a plus plus bullpen. Not as sold on the starting 5 as most.

No reason not to project Paddack at a high level and Davies (especially now at PETCO) being strong pieces worthy of a contender. Lamet only had a 1/2 season (very good) so some concern about is full season performance. Lucchesi / Quantrill are guys some were wanting to dump last winter as a #5 or worse ... not seen anything to rely on anything different. Then Richards who even before the TJ was an injury issue and can he come back after all the time not pitching and be effective (or be a 4+ ERA #5). Again, can argue the all will be better ... all will be worse ... or some mix. Still net probably improvement supporting that a win total in the low 80s.

I guess is why they play a season on the field and not in a computer.

83-85 wins ... 3rd place behind LAD / AZ ... 8-10 games out of the Wild Card ... I can live that improvement over only 70 wins and a decade of losing. Yet, there is always a chance with career years from Padres and some "problems" within the other teams to sneak into a Wild Card slot ... just would not bet the farm.

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 2, 2020, 8:57 pm

Wow Fenn.....could not have said it better myself even though I said it myself. I just hope that the arrow will be pointing up when this season is over and then we all get to talk about going from low to mid 80's in wins to 90 plus wins a season for a solid stretch of time like the Braves did in the 90's and make the Padres/ Dodgers series a true knock down drag out last man standing affair.

Baseball is Soooooo much better when Dodger Fans can't get tickets to Petco because all of us long suffering Padre fans will be filling up the place. Would love to see Petco go crazy like that one Saturday night against the Cubs in '84 at the Murph.....that was one of the greatest nights in Padre history I ever got to see in person......this team is on the same path and they do say history repeats itself but I see 2021 as that...2020 gets the mojo going the right direction.....even without Dick Williams 🙂

I plan on being there.....hell, I've waited 35 years since that one in '84 and getting blown out by the Tigers and got teased in '98 only to get blown out by the Yankees....survived all the strikes and lockouts ( cost T Gywnn hitting .400 ) and that very first season when I was a kid when the lost 110 and won 52.....they won their first game and my new hero was Ed Spezio because he hit a home run.

I have seen the Padres at their best ( T Gywnn, The Garv, Cami and Hoffy ) and their worst ( Chub Feeney flipping off the fans ) and I see them on the rise but also temper my optimism because expectations will kill you and baseball has a way of ripping your heart out and that is why I LOVE the game

I keep my seats in the hope I get to see the Padres in the World Series at least one more time and this time...win the doggone thing 🙂

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 3, 2020, 6:55 am

FENN,   I'm not "ducking the truth" in your #'s above,  but worth pointing out that projected platooners like Margot would be playing to their strengths, not weaknesses, so there is a little more improvement to be had at CF, 2B, and maybe even 1B.

Obviously adding Betts would have a dramatic impact.

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 3, 2020, 7:57 am

Wow the Betts argument for / against is compelling either way.  I would not want to be Preller.  Really stuck between rock & a hard place; but he is responsible for the Myers extension that created the "hard place".

The biggest negative of a Betts signing to me isn't who you lose to gain him, it's the fact that we're almost certain to regress next year when we lose him!

On one hand it makes sense to push LAD to give up as much as possible for 1 year of Betts.  But is it worth it to actually top them?

Fowler's blunt edict to "win now" puts Preller in a rough spot:  lose the trade (=Boston holds Betts OR LAD get him) and the % chance Pads are <.500 dramatically increases, and he's likely fired.  So the pressure to step up & go "over the top" is immense.

But he already has to "overpay" to include Myers in trade; paying enough to get Betts could really work against him in the medium run (> 1 year)... next year when he maybe has a little more salary flexibility, but is down numerous other players /prospects and has the impossible task of replacing Betts.  What does Fowler do if Pads wins in '21 are < '20?

One thing clear is at this point, Boston holding onto Betts looks like by far the worst outcome.  If we don't land him, I'd rather LAD expend resources to do so.