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Off Season Thread
#1271 · February 3, 2020, 8:40 am
Some of this morning's commentary is that Boston used the weekend to sort through the various alternatives proposed by both teams (SD and LAD) ... so probably a lot of alternate names in and out and of alternate "cash considerations". Then some sense that a decision will come down this week (or even tomorrow). At the stage of "buyers" choice.
As expected the LAD seem the favorites since they can do a "clean deal" by taking Betts and his full contract and not pushing a big contract back at Boston ... and the have the prospect depth to match the Padres.
Alternatively they could take Price and a big portion of his contract (maybe pushing back Pollack) lowering Boston payroll even more per luxury tax as the LAD absorb a bit more.
Barring some ill advised "all in" by the Padres .... having Myers in the deal and trying to clear as much of his contract as possible ... would make the prospect level (vs LAD) much higher.
#1272 · February 3, 2020, 8:49 am
Betts to SDP... And then resign him in FA.. 8/320..split over 16 yrs
#1273 · February 3, 2020, 9:21 am
LOL
So the Padres make this deal and get rid of Meyers and all the players people here want to give up for Betts and his contract and pay 1/4 to 1/2 of Meyers contract and the perfect storm happens......Betts goes on the DL, Richards and Lamet go on the DL( We gave away starters to get Betts) and we still finish with less than 80 wins again, miss the playoffs again, season over again and now we lose Betts to FA, Keep paying Meyers contract while he plays for someone else and the same people wanting this trade now want Prellers head for making this trade.
Millennials all want it right now and want to spend money that isn't theirs to spend....Fowler is over the instant quick fix...he saw how well that worked before and I think he is more in tune with a long term viability and contending every year instead of the "shiny" toy you get to play with for one year.
Betts DOES not put the Padres over the top.
#1274 · February 3, 2020, 9:26 am
Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 3, 2020, 8:49 amBetts to SDP... And then resign him in FA.. 8/320..split over 16 yrs
His current ask is $420MM/12 years ... $35MM AAV (per some reports) and turned down a $300MM extension offer from Boston.
Looking as though he will attempt to match Trout's deal ($426.5MM/12 .... $35.5 AAV) and clearly pass Harper's ($330MM/13 years .... $25.4MM AAV).
Not sure a $40MM AAV over 8 years with half deferred out bids other teams considering he would be 35 as he hit FA next ... not going to bet he can get the big deal at that age. Better for him to take a lower AAV (with no ... or less deferrals) but longer duration to maximize the total dollar return.
I would guess at a minimum, $30MM over 12 years is needed (with no deferrals) ... $360MM but more likely $35MM over 12 years for $420MM (his ask) given his production being close to Trout's and at least two money teams likely being in the mix ... LAD / SF ... and don't rule out Boston after the "reset" the penalty level and shed some additional payroll after 2020 ... could add him at $35MM AAV and still be under.
#1275 · February 3, 2020, 11:01 am
If 15 MM over 3 years is really the entire gap preventing a trade for Betts, I feel Preller has to step up & make it happen. Sounds like a deal is near inevitable, so everyone put in your "final & best". Here's mine:
- Myers + Quantrill +Pads eating some amount between 15-30 MM/3 yrs. Tied to whatever else is in the deal. "Not my $", but I'll say Pads eat 20 MM; no more than 10 MM/yr in 21 & 22. Maybe 2/9/9? That would leave Sox a manageable 2/23 (incl 1 MM buyout) contract on Myers after this yr. I'd rather it be Lucchesi, but think Sox would prefer Q.
- Our Comp A pick this year. 1 yr sooner than the Comp pick for Betts next year. Distills deal as much as possible down to: "What is 1 yr of JUST Betts @ 27 MM worth?"...
- Naylor or Margot
- Morejon or Baez
- Ryan Weathers or Joey Cantillo
- Luis Torrens or Blake Hunt
Boston needs SP in present & future. This is the present need filler AND upside LAD can't match. Basically exchanged Campusano for SP prospect + lesser C prospect. Torrens is obvious floor of MLB backup C, but that might be Hunt's ceiling. Campusano's potential so much harder to find. Morejon or Baez the lost piece that might hurt the most in the long run.
Before everyone howls about it being 6 for 1; the first 2 are required just to offset the deal. Not really "part of" Betts value. But yes, it is 4 for 1.... With the comp pick & eating some $, I DO feel it's an overpay, but needed to come over the top of LAD who are a better match with no Myers involved. Padres get:
- a league MVP for 1 year at a "net" cost of likely <10 MM, without a (current) top 100 MLB prospect in the deal.
- We eliminate 1/2 - 3/4 of a bad contract which opens up 10 MM+ in both 21 & 22 (maybe our peak "window of contention" years), AND the roster spot to let our high level OF prospects try to fill it. Without the trade, there is the very real risk that Myers does not improve, and his remaining contract becomes completely immovable dead $ that we can't spend in 21-22.
- Opens up 40-man roster for not only inevitable future adds of elite prospects, but also final 26-man roster shaping heading into this year with room to make waiver claims or minor trades. However, Boston's 40-man is also full, which might hinder a deal with Padres; bottom of their roster either back in this or other trades/DFA's?
- Recover the Comp pick in 2021, giving Preller as many as 3 (Betts, Richards, Yates?) to get creative in that draft. OR could flip Betts at deadline if we're selling to save more $ & recover some trade cost.
#1276 · February 3, 2020, 11:14 am
It's entirely possible LAD's involvement is literally just to drive cost up to SD. Betts' added incremental value is nowhere near as high to them as it is to us (look how he would transform top of order). LAD could perceive that NL West race is going to be much tighter this year with Dbacks & Pads with Betts as actual contenders; but that this trade would weaken the Pads Farm significantly for the future, and give LAD an overwhelming prospects to deal advantage at the deadline if they need it.
...BUT LAD likely have long term interest in Betts, so may be a huge long run advantage to adding him now & hoping he likes LA & playing for them.
#1277 · February 3, 2020, 11:44 am
Blooms connections with LAD greatly concern me. I think it is unlikely Bloom deals with the Padres over his former boss.
#1278 · February 3, 2020, 12:29 pm
IF the speculation that an LAD offer is headed by Alex Verdugo and could include Jeter Downs ... Padres have little chance of topping that straight up for Betts let alone compensate for them taking Myers (and his contract ... or part).
Verdugo hit nearly .300 in the ML last season (and was a Top 30 MLB prospect in 2017) .... at league minimum cost ... 5 years control ... steps right into Betts' spot in Boston. Jeter is currently the #44 prospect as a middle INF. Maybe only two pieces BUT two high ceiling prospects. Plus they don't have to deal with Myers.
Doubt taking on Myers, Quantrill, and Margot ... players who led the Padres to a 92 loss season will excite them ... players many just want the Padres to jettison. Then adding a high volume of low ceiling (non-Top 100 types) just does not cut it. Padres to compete with the speculated LAD offer has to have at least two current Top 100 (since they have no one to match Verdugo at the ML level). How do you top Verdugo / Downs .... maybe Patino / Campusano equals. Then need to do something to get them to take Myers contract ... maybe Trammell if the Padres eat about $15MM in 2021 and again in 2022.
Just don't see the Padres being "willing and able" to top the LAD offer IF it is as speculated.
#1279 · February 3, 2020, 12:56 pm
Why is everybody so hell bent on HELPING Boston out...they need pitching PRESENT and FUTURE ?
The Padres need Pitching Present and Future and all this nonsense for a 1 yr rental that the Padres could NEVER sign and granted you move on from Meyers....so what .
Thats like asking a Bank Robber if they would like any help putting the money in the car after he robs us....Pay Meyers contract in part, Pay 27 million for Betts, give up young pitching
This is just too funny
#1280 · February 3, 2020, 1:00 pm
Quote from fenn68 on February 3, 2020, 12:29 pmIF the speculation that an LAD offer is headed by Alex Verdugo and could include Jeter Downs ... Padres have little chance of topping that straight up for Betts let alone compensate for them taking Myers (and his contract ... or part).
Verdugo hit nearly .300 in the ML last season (and was a Top 30 MLB prospect in 2017) .... at league minimum cost ... 5 years control ... steps right into Betts' spot in Boston. Jeter is currently the #44 prospect as a middle INF. Maybe only two pieces BUT two high ceiling prospects. Plus they don't have to deal with Myers.
Doubt taking on Myers, Quantrill, and Margot ... players who led the Padres to a 92 loss season will excite them ... players many just want the Padres to jettison. Then adding a high volume of low ceiling (non-Top 100 types) just does not cut it. Padres to compete with the speculated LAD offer has to have at least two current Top 100 (since they have no one to match Verdugo at the ML level). How do you top Verdugo / Downs .... maybe Patino / Campusano equals. Then need to do something to get them to take Myers contract ... maybe Trammell if the Padres eat about $15MM in 2021 and again in 2022.
Just don't see the Padres being "willing and able" to top the LAD offer IF it is as speculated.
Agreed. Something doesnt add up, and I have a feeling the current reporting is not accurate. In my personal opinion, I dont see LAD giving up Verdugo and top prospects for Betts. And if they are, then I dont think we are even in the running.