Quote from fenn68 on February 1, 2020, 3:59 pm

Not all that sure the Betts will make a either team a legit Wild Card player in 2020 ... and clearly will go FA after the season.

Boston finished 12 games out of the wild card with only 2 teams above them (no chance to catch the NYY)

SD finished 19 games out of the wild card with 8 teams ahead of them (no chance to catch the LAD).

In a world of “ifs” for both teams, can make the argument that Boston is in a much better position to move back to the wild card slot than SD. Mega proven hitters in Betts, Bogarts, Martinez, Devers, and Benintendi to support proven elite starters in Sale, Price, and Eovoldi. Getting to their playoffs is worth the luxury tax penalty plus with Sale as their #1 ... very good chance of advancing.

I can’t see why Boston would deal Betts for “just prospects” that are weighed down by have to take Myers at any price UNLESS those prospects are headed by at least one (probably two) “elite” ML ready prospects. Otherwise, gamble on Betts getting them to the playoffs.

Frankly those other prospects are “nice” but added into the dismal prospects coming up ... none will be keys to making the playoffs in their Boston lifespan.

Boston should keep Betts ... make a run at the playoffs ... take the Comp Pick ... will be under the limit next winter and just sign some FAs to fill in the holes while the farm is rebuilt.

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 1, 2020, 6:37 pm

Good take, FENN.   I do think the SD vs LAD battle for Betts has to be factored in too... If we get him & LAD do not, that's a bigger swing in our favor than what LAD "gains" by getting him (now); they're already prohibitive favorites to win NL West, Betts would just shift it towards "mortal lock" barring injuries territory, but if we gain him without subtracting much WAR off present team, that's a HUGE gain towards LAD who have lost Ryu.

To build a good future team around the core of Boggerts & Devers, Red Sox  HAVE to get more SP.  Look at the FA cost!  Is that where they're going to go next year already sitting on years more of Price & Sale?  Some prospects, but most likely way they can get SP is via trade.  No other teams have what Pads are going to this year @ SP in AA, with more prospects in A+.  Means not many teams are in the position of being able to trade TWO 40-man SP controllable for 5-6 years WITHOUT destroying the future of their team.

IF, as I, FENN, many others I'm sure are correct that the "whining" about paying the luxury tax is B.S., it lends credence to the idea that Pads might win this game of chicken with Boston capitulating & paying more towards Myers.  I.E. They CAN cover all of Myers' 2020 salary; they still save 7 MM + about 5 MM in luxury tax.... there's no "need" or "have to" getting all the way below the threshold!  Could see deal proposed swing towards Pads with Myers entire 2020 salary (or very close) paid by Boston, but split in 21-22 50/50 @ 10 MM each... splits the difference between Boston covering 75% (45 MM) & only 50% (30 MM) with Boston covering 40 MM (20/10/10)

It's HUGELY under-discussed how much the 21-22 savings AND maybe even more importantly clearing Myers himself off the roster helps the Padres by opening a spot for one or more of all the OF already on hand in 2021:  Trammell, Grisham, Cordero, Naylor, Olivares, maybe even Ona by 21-22...

Quote from fenn68 on February 2, 2020, 7:08 am

Seems as though the Betts' negotiations with LAD and SD are at a bit of a stalemate with LAD and SD holding to their best offers and Boston trying to get one to up their offer. Think it is Boston that has to drop its demands to get a deal done ... or just hold on to Betts.

Personally don't see the LAD deal discussions ... as reported ... with Boston trying to make it a Betts-Price package (because LAD has the money) and still get 5 years of an elite player/prospect in Verdugo plus more. Frankly, 1 year of Betts, in my view, is not worth 5 years of Verdugo ... even up. Verdugo has already shown his ML talent and the LAD don't need the incremental 1 year differential Betts would bring to win the NL WEST in 2020. Boston is pushing Price which is a lot like the Padres pushing Myers to Boston .... just is a drag on getting a deal done. IF LAD can get Betts at their price (and that is likely without Price and without any of their elite prospects) the do it. IF not, they will still win the NL WEST and make their move to better the playoff roster at the trade deadline ... when Betts may still be available along with Lindor and a cast of thousands.

As for the SD deal discussions ... the Padres may need to deal Myers (and a major part of his contract) to take on Betts' contract but can't see any value of Myers to the Red Sox since finding a corner OF with Myers 1 WAR (or less) production can be found, probably, at league minimum. Myers in the deal likely kills any deal unless some of the elite players / prospects from SD are included ... and they need to be ML ready. Boston has a pretty good ML roster that at least has a chance to contend ... so immediate help is required. The reported names keep moving ... but Margot, Naylor, Quantrill, Lucchesi are not "elite" and Campusano is nowhere near ML ready. IF Gore, Patino, Abrams are off the table (as they should be) ... stalemate. Preller does tend to offer to his valuation then walk away if the buyer does not like the offer ... we may be there with Boston.

So, I see this as the ball being totally in Boston's court for a deal.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 2, 2020, 8:02 am

Quote from fenn68 on February 2, 2020, 7:08 am

Seems as though the Betts' negotiations with LAD and SD are at a bit of a stalemate with LAD and SD holding to their best offers and Boston trying to get one to up their offer. Think it is Boston that has to drop its demands to get a deal done ... or just hold on to Betts.

Personally don't see the LAD deal discussions ... as reported ... with Boston trying to make it a Betts-Price package (because LAD has the money) and still get 5 years of an elite player/prospect in Verdugo plus more. Frankly, 1 year of Betts, in my view, is not worth 5 years of Verdugo ... even up. Verdugo has already shown his ML talent and the LAD don't need the incremental 1 year differential Betts would bring to win the NL WEST in 2020. Boston is pushing Price which is a lot like the Padres pushing Myers to Boston .... just is a drag on getting a deal done. IF LAD can get Betts at their price (and that is likely without Price and without any of their elite prospects) the do it. IF not, they will still win the NL WEST and make their move to better the playoff roster at the trade deadline ... when Betts may still be available along with Lindor and a cast of thousands.

As for the SD deal discussions ... the Padres may need to deal Myers (and a major part of his contract) to take on Betts' contract but can't see any value of Myers to the Red Sox since finding a corner OF with Myers 1 WAR (or less) production can be found, probably, at league minimum. Myers in the deal likely kills any deal unless some of the elite players / prospects from SD are included ... and they need to be ML ready. Boston has a pretty good ML roster that at least has a chance to contend ... so immediate help is required. The reported names keep moving ... but Margot, Naylor, Quantrill, Lucchesi are not "elite" and Campusano is nowhere near ML ready. IF Gore, Patino, Abrams are off the table (as they should be) ... stalemate. Preller does tend to offer to his valuation then walk away if the buyer does not like the offer ... we may be there with Boston.

So, I see this as the ball being totally in Boston's court for a deal.

Word out of Boston is they are concerned about Verdugo's back issues... and want Lux or May + Urias instead

Quote from fenn68 on February 2, 2020, 8:43 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 2, 2020, 8:02 am

Quote from fenn68 on February 2, 2020, 7:08 am

Seems as though the Betts' negotiations with LAD and SD are at a bit of a stalemate with LAD and SD holding to their best offers and Boston trying to get one to up their offer. Think it is Boston that has to drop its demands to get a deal done ... or just hold on to Betts.

Personally don't see the LAD deal discussions ... as reported ... with Boston trying to make it a Betts-Price package (because LAD has the money) and still get 5 years of an elite player/prospect in Verdugo plus more. Frankly, 1 year of Betts, in my view, is not worth 5 years of Verdugo ... even up. Verdugo has already shown his ML talent and the LAD don't need the incremental 1 year differential Betts would bring to win the NL WEST in 2020. Boston is pushing Price which is a lot like the Padres pushing Myers to Boston .... just is a drag on getting a deal done. IF LAD can get Betts at their price (and that is likely without Price and without any of their elite prospects) the do it. IF not, they will still win the NL WEST and make their move to better the playoff roster at the trade deadline ... when Betts may still be available along with Lindor and a cast of thousands.

As for the SD deal discussions ... the Padres may need to deal Myers (and a major part of his contract) to take on Betts' contract but can't see any value of Myers to the Red Sox since finding a corner OF with Myers 1 WAR (or less) production can be found, probably, at league minimum. Myers in the deal likely kills any deal unless some of the elite players / prospects from SD are included ... and they need to be ML ready. Boston has a pretty good ML roster that at least has a chance to contend ... so immediate help is required. The reported names keep moving ... but Margot, Naylor, Quantrill, Lucchesi are not "elite" and Campusano is nowhere near ML ready. IF Gore, Patino, Abrams are off the table (as they should be) ... stalemate. Preller does tend to offer to his valuation then walk away if the buyer does not like the offer ... we may be there with Boston.

So, I see this as the ball being totally in Boston's court for a deal.

Word out of Boston is they are concerned about Verdugo's back issues... and want Lux or May + Urias instead

I guess they don't want to make the trade ... LAD is not dealing Lux or May and certainly not adding Urias to one of them. LAD actually need May and Urias more than they need Betts given their SP. Sounds more like Boston media/fan wants vs Boston's front offices REAL ask unless they don't want a trade or are just delusional.

But if you believed that as the Boston ask ... the ask to the Padres would start with Gore AND Lamet just for Betts and then maybe Trammell AND Patino to take Myers and the bulk of his contract.

Are we in the stage of the media / fans just making up scenarios to keep the rumor alive while nothing else is going on in MLB on player movements .... not that they don't just make up scenarios anyway.

 

Quote from hoffy51 on February 2, 2020, 8:44 am

yes, they are making it up. It's called fake news.

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 2, 2020, 8:56 am

I've said it before....sometimes the best deal is the one you are willing to walk away from....Boston wants way to much. I say let em choke on their payroll and lose Betts for a comp pick and keep that terrible contract for Price.

Meyers and Naylor plus 15 million to offset Meyers contract for Betts and his 27 million for a 1 yr rental. Not a chance we take Price and his contract and arm problems.

That's the offer and it has an expiration date

 

Quote from fenn68 on February 2, 2020, 10:05 am

We are probably at the stage for the Padres (and actually all teams) to start forgetting about potential big trade rumors ... if they happen they happen (but unlikely) ... and start more speculation on the construct and performance of 26 man rosters and the placement (potential) of the prospects.

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 2, 2020, 11:21 am

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 2, 2020, 8:56 am

I've said it before....sometimes the best deal is the one you are willing to walk away from....Boston wants way to much. I say let em choke on their payroll and lose Betts for a comp pick and keep that terrible contract for Price.

Meyers and Naylor plus 15 million to offset Meyers contract for Betts and his 27 million for a 1 yr rental. Not a chance we take Price and his contract and arm problems.

That's the offer and it has an expiration date

 

I seriously doubt they let him go for just the Comp. pick.

If they keep him I see them still not making the playoffs and trading him at the deadline ala Machado to the Dodgers.

Somebody will want him and I hope it’s not a team we are battling for a WC spot.