Quote from brent wolff on January 31, 2020, 12:53 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 31, 2020, 12:25 pm

Quote from 3fingersplit on January 31, 2020, 11:49 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 31, 2020, 11:46 am

I know that's what "seems" to make sense but there's no way Bos. will trade the 2nd best player in baseball for Wil Myers....let alone pay Myers contract the next 2 seasons.

Their fans would riot so they would rather hold onto Betts,pay the fines,and trade him at the deadline for "anything" rather than "give up" before ST even starts.

The Padres will have to include a couple young players.....they just will.

 

 

Padre Fans would riot if they gave away the farm for a rental but I hear ya......

So throw in Naylor......Please and call it a deal

No Padre fan would riot if we got Betts even for one season and didn't lose Gore,Patino,or Abrams.

Some may not be ecstatic if we lost one of Trammell or Campusano....but if we get Betts and somehow keep all five?

Myers/Quantrill/Naylor/Arias and Bos pays Myers 21'-22' salary.

Take it all day long.

 

I'd rather give up Myers/Luchessi/Naylor/either Arias or Morejon with Boston paying taking all or almost all of Myers 21-22 salaries -- Pads possibly throw $5 mil per season towards Myers salary.  Hopeful thinking.  Go Pads!

Quote from JasonE135 on January 31, 2020, 12:55 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 31, 2020, 12:03 pm

Quote from 3fingersplit on January 31, 2020, 11:36 am

Brian

This is exactly why I said to flip the script....Boston is the one in dire straights....they want tax relief, they have no leverage as they will be stuck with price and lose Betts anyway and still be one of the most wealthy teams in baseball.

My deal is this...Betts for Meyers...SD pays 12 million of the 61 that Boston gets to spread out over 3 years

Boston gets Meyers for 3 years and may flourish in the AL

San Diego gets a 1 year rental buzz in Betts at a cost of 27 million plus the 12 for Meyers and then in 2021 they lose betts and the 48 million in future payroll from Meyers

Somebody else will come up with better but I'm not inclined to really help out the Red Sox by sending them young controllable players

3finger,  Your point is valid, & I don't disagree Myers might do better in Boston, but it's absurd to propose Boston "get" 75% of Myers remaining salary when their primary goal is to save $ in 2020 & get something in return for Betts.  He was 7 WAR last year, 10+ in 2018 when they won W.S... the 1 year & high salary limits his value to a degree, but not that low!  Only saving "Net" 12 MM here (27-15 to Myers), plus significantly more in lower "luxury tax salary" = more $$ saved in lux tax, BUT

They could easily get way more than that, with way less financial obligation forward, either now or at deadline from another team.

(Not saying YOU would, but...)  can't argue ex. Kirby Yates or Garrett Richards is worth a top 100 prospect at deadline (probably reasonable) if we're out of it & are "Sellers", then turn around & say a contract we're desperate to unload is "fair value" for a full year of one of MLB's very best players in Betts.

What DOES make more sense for Boston, but maybe us too is:  Myers (100% contract) + Lucchesi + Naylor for:

Price (60 MM Max Pads cover = Myers deal) + Benentendi.  Boston save 5 MM on A.B. + "6 MM" or more on Price since Myers 20 MM only "counts" as 14 MM on lux tax payroll.

Naylor would fit & have way more value in Boston.  Myers in LF might outperform A.B. (in Boston), but A.B. is LH, gets on base, & WAY better in CF than Myers.  Boston would probably want Quantrill.  Might do that if Price $ to us drops below Myers $.  I like the idea of pushing as much of Price's $ into 2020 as Pads can stomach to lower his 2021 & 22 salaries as much as possible.

The Padres would not even be involved in trade discussions with Boston if we couldn't get rid of Myers. It's that whole idiosyncrasy of his contract where he counts less against the cap than his actual salary why we are even talking. AJ has no desire to trade Myers for Price. He has been trying all off-season to lose Myers money. This is his chance. He isn't going to waste it trading 1 horrible contract for another.

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2020, 1:01 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on January 31, 2020, 12:43 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2020, 7:53 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 31, 2020, 7:21 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2020, 5:58 am

As usual "local" fans and media over value "their" asset and "national" media just loves big stars with big histories and over values them. Seems as in most cases they just blow off the real world of potential buyers and ignore the value to the buyer when considering salary, control, and players to deal.

Buyers set the market and that is based on their needs ... not just the quality / "image" of the player and absolutely not what the seller / media wants or thinks. Media always want to focus on the player's past performance and avoids any real critical thinking on projection ... normally the buyers are smarter than that (although they sometimes get their projections wrong).

Pretty sure a Betts at 27 will continue at a very high level but everyone seems to be under valuing the drag caused by only 1 year control / $27MM just taking out almost all the buyers and eroding his value to the the potential buyer. For those who remember, Texas was highly criticized years ago when they were ultimately bidding against themselves to sign Alex Rodriguez (agent did great) and ultimately paid way more than any other team offered. Hopefully both SD and LAD are smarter and settle on "their price to pay" ... and let Boston sweat.

Price may be more of a disconnect. People still look at his performance in his mid 20 to boost his value. However, if you focus on his age 30 and after (last three years) ... injuries, decreasing production while still being owner $96MM over the next three years makes him not all that appealing to a buyer. Most other teams seem to see him (if healthy) a middle rotation arm at best. Maybe that is why Boston has not been able to get any buyer of Price without Boston taking back at least half of the contract and a minimal player return.

The speculation that adding Price to a Betts deal and still get a group of high quality prospects is, in my mind, delusional, especially given the financial responsibility the LAD have shown over the past several years and their minimal need for either Betts or Price .... "nice" yes but probably better off in the long run using the money and trade assets to acquire other upgrades. (think Lindor or Clevenger at mid-season IF Cleveland falls out of completion). LAD can afford to wait and still win the NL West.

All that makes a potentially desperate SD a better trade partner but even a better chance Betts stays in Boston and they just take the penalty .... just money to a very, very wealthy team and would keep their fans happier. Just DFA Bradley and that should get them out of tier 2 penalties ... so not even that big a penalty in reality. Getting under the $208MM is likely being overplayed.

Not just money .. Penalty also costs them their 1st..now..since they are above tier 2 lux tax yet another year

No "loss" of pick ... but just having it moved back 10 slots (so not that bad). Plus think they need to be $40MM over to kick that in .. not there ... but even if applied the combo of penalty dollars and slippage in draft not enough to justify "giving away" Betts (and the Comp Pick he would generate) or, potentially, the return he could generate at the trade deadline when his cost is only $9MM.

It may be a benefit to Boston to NOT sell now (below their valuation of Betts) and wait (other teams may be interested at the deadline) while it may be a benefit to LAD to wait ... get him at the deadline since his value to them may just be in the playoffs ... or use those assets to get Lindor or Clevenger at the deadline. I know this is the story of the moment ... but that does not make it an urgent move by either team to alter their early 2020 seasons. Both teams have alternative scenarios to justify not making a deal now if they are not comfortable.

Not quite the same logic for SD ... Betts would improve the Padres early season BUT on a team that lost 92 games in 2019 ... enough to get them into a realistic playoff hunt without a very, very long list of current "ifs" fall the Padres way. Could argue that the Padres need to clear some of those ifs ... such as can Richards actually be effective, Grisham actually hit ML pitching, can Tatis play without getting injured, can Machado hit at PETCO ... again a long list.

I see not urgency for a deal on anyone's part.

The problem with trading Betts at the deadline is that Boston will still be over the lux tax for the year. His first 2/3 of the year will end up on BoSox payroll. They don't want that, they need to move him now. I wish I could find the article, but I saw one yesterday that said Boston maintaining it's current payroll will end up costing them an extra $80-$120 million this year. I don't understand it but that's the way the system is set up.

I was surprised to find this out. We all know that the luxury tax is supposed to hurt teams that go over, yet we see it only supposedly costing them like $8-$13 million, which is absolutely nothing. That would never even cause a billionaire to flinch. But somehow, they all do flinch, HARD, at the luxury tax. There is a lot more rules/penalties in there behind the scenes, especially for repeat offenders like Boston.

Better check that article ... no chance that is right or even close. The penalties are only on the overage ... sounds as though someone applied them to the total payroll. Boston is only over by about $30MM ($20MM in tier 1, then about $10 MM into tier 2). Didn’t try to replicate the calculation but not a big number. Plus a DFA of Bradley (which the should do) probably gets them out of tier 2.

The money to Boston is just noise and the “get under the threshold” is a want but not a need ... beginning to just be a head fake to generate trade discussions with a bit more zest.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 31, 2020, 11:17 pm

Yeah, Spotrac has the total overage around 25 MM, resulting in a penalty of about 11 MM.  Might not be perfectly accurate, but they're extremely close on Pads payroll @ 145 MM currently.

It's true this amount shouldn't even be a blip on the radar for a team like Boston, but I think the owners are trying to psychologically convey that exceeding the "cap" is a big deterrent, when it's really not.   Don't know all the details on escalation for amounts & repeat offenders.  Obviously some situations where a team would want to avoid being a repeat offender when massive upcoming salary increases.

In Boston's case, argument can definitely be made owners just being smart:  Their likelihood of winning division or making playoffs is simply not high enough (i.e. "lock" territory like NYY) to justify paying a penalty for this year's team.  Different story for NYY with such a high % chance to make playoffs.

Quote from fenn68 on February 1, 2020, 5:13 am

Roster Resource (part of Fangraphs) has them for luxury tax purposes at $239MM ... $31MM over. First $20MM is in tier 1 and the next $11MM in tier 2. Probably more than an $11MM penalty ... but not that much.

They still have the flexibility (if they don't want that much of a penalty) just to DFA Bradley (at $11MM) and only owe him a small part of that amount. Actually beyond lowering the penalty ... they would not pay the salary which might come close to offsetting the remaining penalty ... cash wise.

Oddly, MLB may not want Boston to deal Betts (unless it is for a major return). Not all that good going into CBA negotiations with the image of one of the wealthiest teams moving one of the best players in baseball just to get under the tax threshold. Big return is one thing but just an OK return will be suspect. Add that Boston is a high profile market and plays in the high profile AL East .... Betts adds a lot of interest for attendance, viewership. Maybe holds some of that with the LAD (because they are a good team) but will fade into obscurity in SD (like Trout in LAA) ... who sees a LAA game on TV?

Quote from fenn68 on February 1, 2020, 6:01 am

This winter MLB teams seems to have focused on FA signings and trades are just not happening (reverse of last winter). Is that a sign of the current mindset of GMs and does that somehow impact Preller's ability to make good trades? Does take two GM to agree.

As it is Preller with the Pham - Renfroe deal and the Grisham/Davies - Urias/Lauer deals is maybe the most active on deals with bigger name players.

Another observation, other than Davies - Lauer, the only other major arm to be dealt (as I recall) is Corey Kluber ... and frankly he is coming off an injury season from a team needed to shed payroll. Again, mindset of the GMs, are SP more valuable to hold than we are thinking? Reverse that logic, and is the trade value of a Lucchesi or Quantrill as ML SP more than just "throw-ins" ... clearly MLB teams need SP of even marginal quality?

On position players the very few deals are basically OF (corner mainly): Jose Martinez; Nomar Mazara; Starling Marte beyond the Padres with Pham-Renfroe and Grisham. Suggest that OF are not that coveted ... and considering the return Marte produced ... not that valued. INF?

So if what has happened is a reflection of the go forward market, then adding the likes of Myers, Margot, Cordero, Naylor in a deal will not get them much but utilizing Quantrill, Lucchesi maybe get a better return ... assuming any other GM wants to deal ... and that is in question.

Getting late and as it gets closer to ST ... less likely trades will happen. As far a I can tell, the only seeming legit trade rumors still in play surround Betts (and beginning to really question that).

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 1, 2020, 8:18 am

Another observation, other than Davies - Lauer, the only other major arm to be dealt (as I recall) is Corey Kluber ... and frankly he is coming off an injury season from a team needed to shed payroll. Again, mindset of the GMs, are SP more valuable to hold than we are thinking? Reverse that logic, and is the trade value of a Lucchesi or Quantrill as ML SP more than just "throw-ins" ... clearly MLB teams need SP of even marginal quality?

Basis for my argument that L or Q in trade with Myers would be the most effective way to eliminate most of Myers' salary.

Re the Betts trade specifically, when I dug into their roster, I couldn't believe how unbelievably razor thin Boston's SP depth is.  They really don't actually have "a guy" as even a #6 SP on their roster (some RP's made some starts with very mediocre even for #5 results), or system (#5 overall prospect in WEAK system made it to AAA 2nd 1/2 but worked as RP there).   ANY MLB experienced SP would hold a lot of value to Boston.

The 2 problems are: 1) No combo of anything received in trade from us or LAD is going to make Boston "better" this year than just keeping Betts.  Might help with $ & better balance roster depth, and position better for near future, but team won't have a greater chance of making playoffs in 2020  2)  For us, even though Myers' low luxury tax salary has real $$ value to Boston AND he would fill the position of need, his inclusion still depresses the value of also including a SP.   Take Myers out of equation & think just Quantrill straight up for Betts.... Boston would have to think about 5 yrs Q & big $ saved.  Probably would take more, but not much.

Finally, a HUGE "hidden" value in signing multiple RP FA for the Pads is that it pushes our elite talent like Morejon & Baez back into SP roles in Minors vs them being "forced" into RP roles in MLB due to lack of depth like last year.  2-3 times more innings to work on all the nuances of pitching and DEVELOP!   If we don't make this trade now, look at what the value of our stable of SP in MLB & high Minors will be at the trade deadline, and esp next offseason... massive.

Quote from JasonE135 on February 1, 2020, 10:45 am

I personally think that Quantrill is going to take a big step forward this year. If we trade him now we will definitely be selling low. I think it's possible that by the end of next year a team just taking on Myers contract may not be enough to get them Quantrill.

Everyone tends to just look at the starting 5. You are right Mr. Connelly, depth matters for SP. Let's not forget that Boston's starting staff comes with MAJOR injury/durability concerns. I can see them losing quite a few games if they don't get at least 1 SP that is ready to step in right away. Ideally they need 2 or 3. That is a huge advantage for teams like us.

Quote from fenn68 on February 1, 2020, 12:55 pm

I wonder what the Red Sox execs are really saying / thinking behind closed doors ... not the public face they are putting on.

Consider in 2019 they finished 19 games behind the NYY who are just a bit better, 12 games behind TB for the Wild Card spot. Boston has done little (if anything) to improve. Add that they have a very poor farm that will provide no help in 2020. Their SP of Sale, Price, and Eovoldi are all highly paid and high injury risks based on recent seasons.

So, even with Betts, a long shot for the playoffs while paying the luxury tax. With Betts, Bradley, Workman, and Castillo falling off the books for 2021 some flexibility to add some players and stay under the tax threshold ... but not a lot. Publicly they clearly will say they plan to contend with a healthy pitching staff and some of the best players in MLB but what do they really think ... can their version of "ifs" hold up the public statements?

So, keeping Betts may not get them even to the playoffs while costing them money ...flip side not going to get enough immediate impact in a Betts trade to contend ... probably for years.

If Boston concludes they will not make the Wild Card with Betts or with anyone they get in a trade for Betts ... and the tax penalty is peanuts to them ... do they they really care if a deal goes through? Ask for vast overpay ... if they find a sucker, great .... if not, that is OK too given the fan value of Betts. If that is how they see it ... formula for no trade.