Quote from Brian Connelly on January 31, 2020, 11:07 am

Now that I'm looking, a trade out makes more & more sense: AL had 6 really good teams last year, then Boston (84 wins), then 3 teams 78-72 wins: Rangers, Angels, White Sox. NYY vastly better @ Houston's expense w/Cole. Indians "worse"? less Kluber, but not relative to last year's team. Angels signed Rendon, Twins signed Donaldson, White Sox - Grandal, Keuchel, & re-upped Abreu; even Blue Jays signed Ryu... Boston replaced Rick Porcello with Martin Perez, and added INF Jose Peraza to compete @ 2B.  Fair to say no significant improvement.

Boston has no $ (or prospects) to get better now, and no prospects (or $) to get better at the deadline. 4 Offensive studs, good lineup overall, elite defensive OF; definitely a "good" team, but SP looks razor thin depth wise and has age, injury, performance issues. Boston would need an MVP caliber season from Betts (certainly possible), same or better offensive years from all others, and near perfect health at SP, AND unexpected slippage from multiple good teams last year just to have a CHANCE at playoffs.
Alternative is wheels could come off fast, especially at SP, forced to sell at deadline.

Could argue < 1/2 season of Betts @ 10MM or whatever might have "same" trade value to a playoff contender at deadline as limited 2 team market for his services now... but costs a lot more $ to Boston.   I look at it as, "what % chance does Boston realistically have at making the playoffs at their current payroll?"  Think it's pie-in-the-sky to say even 50%, vs NYY or even Hou less Cole & in disarray ... as close to 100% as teams can be without injuries, surprises, in season...

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2020, 11:16 am

Follow the money .... clearly Harper wanted to go to the West (maybe west Philly) and Machado wanted to stay East (maybe East of the I-5 in SD).

Listened to Rosenthal this morning and his understanding that Boston has been trying to extend Betts for a few years (and falling about $100MM short of his asking price each time ... asking price keeps rising every year). Did a lot to shift their money to extending Bogarts and Sale instead.

Doubt Betts stats for one year in LA/SD will diminish his price to a ready and able buyer ... Harper did alright after good but not great season leading up to FA. His issue will be having a “ready and able” buyer next winter at his price. Would expect him coming under the early demands and “settle” for at least a 10 year / $350MM deal. There will be a take ... there always is.

I would not pick LAD but a team such as SF might play big as some of their contracts start to fall off and they do have money. Next winter ... maybe the Cubs post-Bryant trade. Of course, Preller will be “interested” with some money to spend after the contracts that lapse and clearing some of Myers shrinking contract with Betts being that last piece to take the Padres from “just missing” the wild card to World Series contenders with one of the young elite SP staffs in baseball.

Could Preller’s intense “interest” now just be setting ideas in Betts (and his camp) of the credibility of the Padres for a push to sign him next winter?

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 31, 2020, 11:26 am

Man I'd love to get Cameron Maybin on a Minors deal...  vet RH CF capable 5th OF with limited playing time but defensive sub value might end up a better 25-man roster fit on Opening Day than "need to play every day to develop/improve" Naylor & Cordero....

... and wish we had 40-man room for a dude like this... I looked & last 5 seasons running his AAA stats esp WHIP are great.  Probably out of options though.

The Brewers have designated right-hander Deolis Guerra for assignment…

…some outstanding numbers at the Triple-A level, as Guerra posted a 1.89 ERA, 5.50 K/BB rate, and 11.9 K/9 over 66 2/3 relief innings.

While the 30-year-old Guerra had an age and experience advantage over much younger Triple-A batters, his performance was particularly impressive given that 2019 was by far the biggest-hitting season in the history of Triple-A baseball.  Another team could be intrigued enough by those minor league stats to pluck Guerra off the DFA wire

 

Quote from 3fingersplit on January 31, 2020, 11:36 am

Brian

This is exactly why I said to flip the script....Boston is the one in dire straights....they want tax relief, they have no leverage as they will be stuck with price and lose Betts anyway and still be one of the most wealthy teams in baseball.

My deal is this...Betts for Meyers...SD pays 12 million of the 61 that Boston gets to spread out over 3 years

Boston gets Meyers for 3 years and may flourish in the AL

San Diego gets a 1 year rental buzz in Betts at a cost of 27 million plus the 12 for Meyers and then in 2021 they lose betts and the 48 million in future payroll from Meyers

Somebody else will come up with better but I'm not inclined to really help out the Red Sox by sending them young controllable players

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 31, 2020, 11:46 am

I know that's what "seems" to make sense but there's no way Bos. will trade the 2nd best player in baseball for Wil Myers....let alone pay Myers contract the next 2 seasons.

Their fans would riot so they would rather hold onto Betts,pay the fines,and trade him at the deadline for "anything" rather than "give up" before ST even starts.

The Padres will have to include a couple young players.....they just will.

 

 

Quote from 3fingersplit on January 31, 2020, 11:47 am

The crazy thing would be if Preller, Fowler and Sidler actually made a deal for Betts and already had a deal in place for him long term....Mike Trout Numbers.....10-12 yrs at 400-425 million.

That would be the coup of the century.....whoa...I just woke up and realized it isn't April 1st.

C'mon spring training.....some of us are losing our minds 🙂

BTW- Spring Training trip this year is wrapped around the Mecum Auto Auction in Glendale in March....New, Young Players and Classic Old Cars.....can't wait

Quote from 3fingersplit on January 31, 2020, 11:49 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 31, 2020, 11:46 am

I know that's what "seems" to make sense but there's no way Bos. will trade the 2nd best player in baseball for Wil Myers....let alone pay Myers contract the next 2 seasons.

Their fans would riot so they would rather hold onto Betts,pay the fines,and trade him at the deadline for "anything" rather than "give up" before ST even starts.

The Padres will have to include a couple young players.....they just will.

 

 

Padre Fans would riot if they gave away the farm for a rental but I hear ya......

So throw in Naylor......Please and call it a deal 🙂

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 31, 2020, 12:03 pm

Quote from 3fingersplit on January 31, 2020, 11:36 am

Brian

This is exactly why I said to flip the script....Boston is the one in dire straights....they want tax relief, they have no leverage as they will be stuck with price and lose Betts anyway and still be one of the most wealthy teams in baseball.

My deal is this...Betts for Meyers...SD pays 12 million of the 61 that Boston gets to spread out over 3 years

Boston gets Meyers for 3 years and may flourish in the AL

San Diego gets a 1 year rental buzz in Betts at a cost of 27 million plus the 12 for Meyers and then in 2021 they lose betts and the 48 million in future payroll from Meyers

Somebody else will come up with better but I'm not inclined to really help out the Red Sox by sending them young controllable players

3finger,  Your point is valid, & I don't disagree Myers might do better in Boston, but it's absurd to propose Boston "get" 75% of Myers remaining salary when their primary goal is to save $ in 2020 & get something in return for Betts.  He was 7 WAR last year, 10+ in 2018 when they won W.S... the 1 year & high salary limits his value to a degree, but not that low!  Only saving "Net" 12 MM here (27-15 to Myers), plus significantly more in lower "luxury tax salary" = more $$ saved in lux tax, BUT

They could easily get way more than that, with way less financial obligation forward, either now or at deadline from another team.

(Not saying YOU would, but...)  can't argue ex. Kirby Yates or Garrett Richards is worth a top 100 prospect at deadline (probably reasonable) if we're out of it & are "Sellers", then turn around & say a contract we're desperate to unload is "fair value" for a full year of one of MLB's very best players in Betts.

What DOES make more sense for Boston, but maybe us too is:  Myers (100% contract) + Lucchesi + Naylor for:

Price (60 MM Max Pads cover = Myers deal) + Benentendi.  Boston save 5 MM on A.B. + "6 MM" or more on Price since Myers 20 MM only "counts" as 14 MM on lux tax payroll.

Naylor would fit & have way more value in Boston.  Myers in LF might outperform A.B. (in Boston), but A.B. is LH, gets on base, & WAY better in CF than Myers.  Boston would probably want Quantrill.  Might do that if Price $ to us drops below Myers $.  I like the idea of pushing as much of Price's $ into 2020 as Pads can stomach to lower his 2021 & 22 salaries as much as possible.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 31, 2020, 12:25 pm

Quote from 3fingersplit on January 31, 2020, 11:49 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 31, 2020, 11:46 am

I know that's what "seems" to make sense but there's no way Bos. will trade the 2nd best player in baseball for Wil Myers....let alone pay Myers contract the next 2 seasons.

Their fans would riot so they would rather hold onto Betts,pay the fines,and trade him at the deadline for "anything" rather than "give up" before ST even starts.

The Padres will have to include a couple young players.....they just will.

 

 

Padre Fans would riot if they gave away the farm for a rental but I hear ya......

So throw in Naylor......Please and call it a deal

No Padre fan would riot if we got Betts even for one season and didn't lose Gore,Patino,or Abrams.

Some may not be ecstatic if we lost one of Trammell or Campusano....but if we get Betts and somehow keep all five?

Myers/Quantrill/Naylor/Arias and Bos pays Myers 21'-22' salary.

Take it all day long.