Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 30, 2020, 9:14 am

I think we can get Eovaldi ($17mil per x 3 yrs left $51 mil) + Betts from Boston -- with Boston eating ALL of Myers--- saves us only $5 mil or so in 20/21/22... but Eovaldi (swing) BP can be at least very useful out of the BP in postseason and can be the buffer between Gore/Patino/Richards monitored work load... Not ideal -- but easier to move at the deadline as well and next offseason 2/34 not the end of the world for a team looking for Pitching-- in any case he would be more valuable to us than Myers and would save us $15 mil over 3.. also gets Bosox under lux tax.. and we wouldnt have to include Campy in the deal-- maybe Hunt or Torrens instead///

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 30, 2020, 9:30 am

This Betts rumor while very real has gotten foaming at the mouth frothy bonkers with the complexity of the #'s involved...

Has ANY legit source mentioned inclusion of Jackie Bradley, Jr (or Price) in the Betts to Pads rumor?  Either seem ludicrous $ wise to Pads.... don't think we're going to 160 -180 MM to get 1 yr of Betts & offload Myers.  While Boston might want to get 100% below the luxury tax threshold, it just might not be that clean & simple.   Might "only" save some of the luxury tax hit, and/or might take more than one trade to get there.

Using Spotrac:   Betts real & Luxury tax salary:  27 MM   Myers real = 20 MM, lux tax = 13.8 round up to 14 MM

SO if trade happens AND in 2020 Boston takes ALL of Myers salary:  Pads pay +7 MM in real salary.  Boston saves - 7 MM in real salary, BUT on paper saves 13 MM (27-"14") in "luxury tax salary".  This cuts their luxury tax bill in half & they save -5.5 MM in luxury tax; - 12.5 MM total savings.    Pads advantage is Myers backfills the position pretty well for a team trying to win now.

If LAD can execute a prospect/s &/or minimum salary guy/s only in a trade for Betts, they have the advantage of being able to wipe out the entire 27 MM salary AND almost 11 MM in luxury tax = -38 MM total savings to Boston.  But have to fill RF.

Quote from fenn68 on January 30, 2020, 10:01 am

So an Alex Verdugo - Mookie Betts swap of RF would work ... straight up. LAD take the $27MM and a "super star" while Boston gets a RF with one year experience and at league minimum (5 years control).

Not that was not so hard!

Has to have come up in some form .... wonder which team would balk? Guessing LAD ...

Quote from fenn68 on January 30, 2020, 10:22 am

From early on I have contended that trying to trade Myers (and his contract) and get something of value back is just making the deal virtually unworkable ... unless you clean house of the Padres elite (Paddack, Tatis, Gore level).

I suspect that while all the speculation is around Myers moving as part of a Betts deal ... Preller is re-engaged in a separate set of negotiations to move Myers (and his contract) using a ton of prospects. IF he could pull that off, would be easier to work with Boston for Betts by taking the full contract and using less in player assets.

Would think a team on the rise (with money of course) could be tempted to take Myers' contract if he comes with something like Quantrill, Weathers, Naylor, Oliveras for a PTNL type. Basically buy the prospects.

Then without Myers in the equation ... Betts (and his full contract) for Margot and Morejon may seem more feasible.

Can mix and match names to make the deal work ... but maybe that is more the concept that is needed.

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 30, 2020, 11:25 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 30, 2020, 10:22 am

From early on I have contended that trying to trade Myers (and his contract) and get something of value back is just making the deal virtually unworkable ... unless you clean house of the Padres elite (Paddack, Tatis, Gore level).

I suspect that while all the speculation is around Myers moving as part of a Betts deal ... Preller is re-engaged in a separate set of negotiations to move Myers (and his contract) using a ton of prospects. IF he could pull that off, would be easier to work with Boston for Betts by taking the full contract and using less in player assets.

Would think a team on the rise (with money of course) could be tempted to take Myers' contract if he comes with something like Quantrill, Weathers, Naylor, Oliveras for a PTNL type. Basically buy the prospects.

Then without Myers in the equation ... Betts (and his full contract) for Margot and Morejon may seem more feasible.

Can mix and match names to make the deal work ... but maybe that is more the concept that is needed.

???  No.  You're out-thinking yourself.  Look what you're saying:  In essence, you're saying we should trade:  Myers, Quantrill, Weathers, Naylor, Oliveras, Margot, & Morejon for:  1 year of Betts, a comp pick, and saving Myers' 3/60 salary by involving a 2nd team?   If we offered that exact deal to Boston they would be falling all over themselves to sign before Preller reconsidered.   It would open up the 40-man and next year's payroll for sure; but torpedoing this year's depth, the Farm system in general (3 top 15), and "only" saving net 33 MM/3 yrs to do so.

Myers has more "value" going to Boston for Betts specifically, than any other destination b/c:  1) He backfills the position,  2) His significantly lower luxury tax salary of "14 MM" has real $$ value to Boston esp in 2020, but going forward too (it's meaningless to us & 80% of all other MLB teams).    Conversely, it's why all the other trade scenarios (Marte, etc) don't work.  Pads don't have to trade Myers, but they do to add a vet OF.  Doing it as 2 separate trades would just increase the cost for Betts, as it would have for any other player like Marte.

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 30, 2020, 12:14 pm

Grr...  had this post 90% written & hit some button (OK "almost" Boomer!) & it vanished.

Consolation prize trade proposal.   Ironically makes MORE sense if Betts is traded to LAD (or elsewhere), but would be less likely/needed by Boston then...

Padres get:   David Price (60 MM/3 yrs MAX see below) &  Andrew Benintendi

Red Sox get:  Myers (all 60 MM non negotiable) & Joey Lucchesi & Josh Naylor

IMO Benintendi is a classic East coast bias over-rate:  20/16/13 HR as full-time corner OF in Fenway/AL East/juiced ball era... with 140 K, only 10 SB last yr?  Ummm...  down year, yes, but he will never hit Myers' peak (in PETCO!  PRE-juiced ball!) of essentially 30/30 once & 30/20 twice.  BUT LH, better OBP, younger, and better defensively than Myers.   Pads upgrade SP, get NOT TOR SP, but 200 IP (SIX times!  NINE > 170 IP) vet WS winner with a declining contract (see below) > Joey AND settle OF as:  LF - Pham, CF - A.B. vs RHP, Margot vs LHP, RF - Grisham or Cordero vs RHP, A.B. vs LHP (everyday starter like Pham, not bad splits vs LHP esp 2019).   Essentially buying low on both guys + with Sox payroll pressure

Sox fill all 3 holes, and save at least 11 MM off luxury tax payroll:  5 MM A.B.  + (20 - 14) 6 MM difference Price to Myers.   Naylor vastly worse defensively, but a really good fit in Boston as LF this year, maybe 1B next year.  OR if no Betts trade, Myers in LF could conceivably match/beat A.B.'s production, with Naylor developing in AAA playing LF & 1B.

Like Betts proposal, sticking point likely the dead $ trading team keeps, but it's Boston/Price now.  From Pads P.O.V. no reason to exceed the 3/60 being paid to Myers, but possible to 're-structure' &/or even slightly lower it (55 MM? 50?) over the 3 yrs, b/c Boston motivated to lower Luxury tax payroll this year.  IF Betts traded to LAD for prospect/s &/or min salary guy/s, Sox will have (barely) gotten below the threshold, and this trade would just be about backfilling Betts' spot & creating "breathing room" under Luxury tax cap for 2020 = less motivation.  If Betts trade does NOT happen, (Boston better THIS year), then Boston will be more motivated to save as much in Luxury tax salary as possible.

Pads can do this to some extent by taking more of Price's 2020 salary in exchange for less in 21 & 22:

Ex.  22 /20 /18  this +2 in 2020 + 5 for A.B = + 7 MM total = the increase Pads would take on w/ Betts trade, all Myers' salary out.

I think Preller should push for higher this yr, lower future:   24 / 20 / 16 ?  Still 60 MM.  Push for LESS total...  24 / 18 / 12 ?   That would be 3/18 AAV, 2/15 AAV, 1/12 AAV!   Practically "flippable" in trade right then & esp next offseason.  Unlikely to get lower than that...   add a lower level (< top 10) prospect?  Makes sense for Boston to use future $ in 21-22 to buy prospect/s now.

Think the deal actually makes a lot of sense for both sides.  Boston has to realize there are zero takers at 3/32 AAV for Price.  That's a "Myers" contract:  have to add something to have any chance of subtracting it.  Dead $ less a big deal to Boston than it is to lower payroll Pads.  Their issue is this year's luxury tax.

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 30, 2020, 12:26 pm

Worth noting the pieces in the Price/Benintendi proposal are all mentioned possible in a Betts deal...

... but the dead $ is being shifted from Pads to Boston.

Betts deal:  Pads goal "only" 15 MM dead $ , Boston goal 30 MM dead $ Padres

Price deal:  MINIMUM 36 MM dead $ Boston, Pads goal maybe 42-45 MM dead $ Boston.

That's a MIN 50 MM+ to likely MAX 70+/- MM "Net" swing in who's carrying the dead $

Not "really", since Boston would still have Price's contract if they deal Betts, but still....

Quote from fenn68 on January 30, 2020, 4:54 pm

Per the Boston Globe:

On the Padres’ side, they “seem open on just about any other outfielder” than Tommy Pham or Trent Grisham in trade talks.

Duh! Doubt Margot, Naylor, Cordero, or Ona would ever become a roadblock and after that not much until you get to Head .... but does that suggest Trammel is in play and maybe lost favor? On the flip side, they must be locked in on Grisham for CF.

=====

Saw a different note that Verdugo may be in play from the LAD (see my previous note) but only as "part" of what goes back to Boston. "Part" is what gets me ... was near the top of the Top 100 then hit near .300 last season (1/2 year) with plus defense. 5 years control and at league minimum.

Betts may be elite but for a team that will win the NL WEST without him they don't NEED him and not all that sure that a full year of Verdugo (at maybe a 4 WAR) would not be impactful enough vs the maybe 6-7 WAR of Betts without taking on the $27MM (could be spend elsewhere) and the additional 4 years of Verdugo.

 

Quote from onlypads on January 30, 2020, 5:27 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 30, 2020, 4:54 pm

Per the Boston Globe:

On the Padres’ side, they “seem open on just about any other outfielder” than Tommy Pham or Trent Grisham in trade talks.

Duh! Doubt Margot, Naylor, Cordero, or Ona would ever become a roadblock and after that not much until you get to Head .... but does that suggest Trammel is in play and maybe lost favor? On the flip side, they must be locked in on Grisham for CF.

=====

Saw a different note that Verdugo may be in play from the LAD (see my previous note) but only as "part" of what goes back to Boston. "Part" is what gets me ... was near the top of the Top 100 then hit near .300 last season (1/2 year) with plus defense. 5 years control and at league minimum.

Betts may be elite but for a team that will win the NL WEST without him they don't NEED him and not all that sure that a full year of Verdugo (at maybe a 4 WAR) would not be impactful enough vs the maybe 6-7 WAR of Betts without taking on the $27MM (could be spend elsewhere) and the additional 4 years of Verdugo.

 

Perhaps the author is merely offering an observation. The pairing of "it seems" rather than the front office indicates/sources say and Verdugo merely being a part of the return package as you point out with respect to LAD makes me think it may be the case.

Like you I imagine LAD balks at that offer.

I think LAD can get it done without Verdugo, Seager, Lux, or May quite easily.

Imagine Bellinger, Verdugo, and Betts in your OF..yikes. Ridiculous on defense and offense.