Quote from dusty on January 26, 2020, 3:56 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on January 26, 2020, 2:56 pm

BOS, according to Rosenthal, needs about $28.8M to get under the lowest luxury tax threshold of  $208M.

Luxury tax numbers wise Betts and Bradley are $38M and Myers and Margot are $16M±. So that is basically $22M of luxury tax dollars of savings for BOS. So outside of prospects, Betts/Bradley for Myers and Margot plus $7M makes BOS at the spot that they need to be to reset the penalty for 2020.

IMO Bradley and Margot are about the same player, with Bradley making a lot more money and 2 years less control. Even if some in the industry think that JBJ is better than Margot, the years of control and defensive ability make those two a wash IMO.

That just leaves SD and BOS working on the prospects/players to make a straight up Betts trade to SD.

In the end, Myers, Margot, Morejon, and Torrens plus $7M in cash for JBJ and Betts.

SD OF is Pham, JBJ/Grisham, and Betts for 2020, with the hope that Trammell and Cordero are ready to step in for 2021.

This would be really intriguing, to be honest. Two players in contract years with JBJ getting a change of scenery and obviously Betts the prize could really help to add to the offense's transition. I am not sure how much Torrens is valued though so not sure if we would have to sub him out for a different prospect. But as everything continues to unfold in what seems like the final days of negotiating before the Sox inevitably deal him, I think the Padres having the means to acquire Betts especially puts them into the wild card. They need to decide if they would be willing to spend even more money at the deadline to acquire that TOR to give them another push once in the playoffs should everything come together as we all would expect.

Quote from fenn68 on January 26, 2020, 4:58 pm

I guess Boston (and probably a trade partner) should factor in the "savings" from not paying the luxury tax.

Boston is at about $236MM for luxury tax purposes $208MM is the lowest level and $228 is the next level (greater penalty). Not sure why the just did not non-tender Bradley at $11MM and drop into level 1 ... clearly no one wants him at that price tag or he would have been traded but possible they can DFA him in early ST and maybe save a percentage of his contract to get to the first tier.

If they did that .. still over the lower threshold and probably on the hook for $15MM-20MM in penalty (not real sure on the calculation for a 3rd time consecutive offender) ... but on a bigger payroll in 2019 only paid $13.5MM as a second offender. That is not the worst position for a wealthy team such as Boston to eat that penalty. They should not (and likely will not) make a panic move.

Note that in 2021 they will naturally fall way under the threshold with Betts, Bradley Workman FA and the end of Rusney Castillo. So this is a one year issue.

So by moving Betts the Red Sox save his $27MM and maybe another $15MM-20MM in penalty and would be about $10MM under the threshold (assuming they DFA'd Bradley) and about at the threshold if they kept Bradley ... and assuming they did not take any larger contract back.

Not convinced the Red Sox are not better off financially and on the field by keeping Betts ... paying the penalty ... and avoiding getting burdened for the next three years of Myers.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 26, 2020, 6:32 pm

Even though Boston would drop below the threshold next year they would be a lot worse team if they don’t trade Betts now.Letting Betts and others “drop off” still Doesn’t leave them with any money to spend to improve.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 27, 2020, 5:40 am

Not sure if this has been mentioned.....maybe I missed it....but one point is that "if" this deal for Betts goes thru,and we are not in contention in 2020 at the trade deadline,we can still trade him to a contender for a couple pieces that may fit our needs better.

Depending on what we have to give up that is.

If we trade from positions of strength...SP,C etc..to get him maybe we flip him for a couple young CF,MI,3B?

Obviously we wont get as much for him for a 2 month rental but if we also get the Myers salary relief it could still be worth it even if it doesn't lead to the Playoffs.

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 27, 2020, 6:13 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 26, 2020, 6:32 pm

Even though Boston would drop below the threshold next year they would be a lot worse team if they don’t trade Betts now.Letting Betts and others “drop off” still Doesn’t leave them with any money to spend to improve.

 

I get them at $30-35MM under the tax threshold next year in the "do nothing" scenario. So a lot of room for FA to improve the team.

Actually taking Myers (and any part of his contract) for 2021-22 eats away at their ability to build a better team unless those accompanying prospects are compelling ...

Even if they just took $10MM of Myers' contract ... probably could do better signing a 1-2 year FA who would be more productive and still have over $20MM to spend.

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Still think LAD are in the best position by not having to "dump" a bad contract in any deal and have the players to deal ... if they want. Also, apparently AZ has entered the "interested" rumors.

Since based on recent rumors, only SD, LAD, and now AZ are "interested" ... all in the NL WEST ... hmmm. Could it be that none are seriously interested and all are just trying to jack up the price to the other to weaken them down the road.

Doubt LAD are really concerned that not getting Betts will cost them the NL WEST title and, at best, AZ and SD see him as a plus for the Wild Card. AZ won 85 games and only 4 games (2 teams) out of the wild card slot making dealing for Betts more logical than SD who one 70 games and needs to improve at least 19 wins to contend. Even Boston only had 2 teams ahead of him for the wild card slot ... would be worse off without Betts (and with Myers) and winning in Boston is important .. push off the losing until 2021.

Betts stays.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 27, 2020, 7:33 am

I actually think Myers in Bos. at 1b would be productive.

He may be a prime change of scenery candidate and staying at 1 position and that short LF wall all could be advantageous for him.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 27, 2020, 9:33 am

In the ever evolving storyline of a Betts / Padres deal:

Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune updates the situation from the Padres’ perspective, covering quite a few notable details on the discussions. The Friars are said to be trying to structure a deal around a pair of young MLB-level players: one outfielder (Manuel Margot or Josh Naylor) and one pitcher (Cal Quantrill or Joey Lucchesi).

Supposing that aspect of the prospective arrangement meets with the desires of the Boston front office, there’s still the matter of sorting out the money. As has been reported previously, the Friars wish to offload as much as possible of the Wil Myerscontract, in no small part due to the fact that Betts is set to play for $27MM in 2020. But the sides are currently deadlocked on the dollars, with the Sox “offering to assume about half” of the $61MM still owed Myers and the Pads wishing “to eat only about a quarter.”

Buyer's choice and settle on the Padres eating 3/8ths of Myers' contract ($22.5MM) ... OK with that plus (at least in this version) preserve all the prospects. (If I were Boston ... take the longer control / higher upside of Naylor and Quantrill). Myers to RF, Naylor to 1B (Chavis to 2B), Quantrill SP (on an otherwise LH oriented SP staff).

I will believe it when it happens.

Quote from onlypads on January 27, 2020, 9:55 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 27, 2020, 9:33 am

In the ever evolving storyline of a Betts / Padres deal:

Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune updates the situation from the Padres’ perspective, covering quite a few notable details on the discussions. The Friars are said to be trying to structure a deal around a pair of young MLB-level players: one outfielder (Manuel Margot or Josh Naylor) and one pitcher (Cal Quantrill or Joey Lucchesi).

Supposing that aspect of the prospective arrangement meets with the desires of the Boston front office, there’s still the matter of sorting out the money. As has been reported previously, the Friars wish to offload as much as possible of the Wil Myerscontract, in no small part due to the fact that Betts is set to play for $27MM in 2020. But the sides are currently deadlocked on the dollars, with the Sox “offering to assume about half” of the $61MM still owed Myers and the Pads wishing “to eat only about a quarter.”

Buyer's choice and settle on the Padres eating 3/8ths of Myers' contract ($22.5MM) ... OK with that plus (at least in this version) preserve all the prospects. (If I were Boston ... take the longer control / higher upside of Naylor and Quantrill). Myers to RF, Naylor to 1B (Chavis to 2B), Quantrill SP (on an otherwise LH oriented SP staff).

I will believe it when it happens.

That is pretty much where I valued the trade. I mean I would go further and throw in an arm like Pedro/Mason and positional player like Potts/Ruiz. Essentially 5:1 and our pickup of all of Betts salary. Not sure the other side sees it as so.

Quote from fenn68 on January 27, 2020, 12:13 pm

Marte to the DBacks making them a more formidable challenge for that last wild card slot in 2020.

Price seems reasonable: 2 prospects but neither a Top 100 ... DBack prospect in the second half of their top 10 but both are very young (in lower minors) ... a 20 year old SS and a 19 year old RHP. Both upside ... both a long way away.

Padres probably could have topped that but guessing they were just not the enamored with Marte.

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Putting Betts aside for the moment (but could end up being related) ... taking a CF such as Marte off the market and with the Mets still in the market and were perusing Marte ... would a deal of Margot to the Mets be in the future. Padres would have to be all in on Grisham - Cordero - Trammell but if Margot did not go in a Betts deal ... clearing his salary helps offset the increase from Betts > Myers.

Sort of depends on the return, of course.