Quote from fenn68 on January 17, 2020, 3:01 pm

Quote from WindsorUK on January 17, 2020, 2:44 pm

With Profar, Garcia, and Cronenworth on the roster, do any of Castillo, Vosler, or Quiroz stand a chance of making the roster?

And with the unforseen influx of all the veterans to the pen, do Guerra or Perdomo stand a chance of breaking camp with the big club?

With Castillo, Vosler, Quiroz we are probably seeing the sorting out of the AAA roster early in ST ... just in ML camp because the 40 man roster guys will not initially play nine inning every day. May be making a case for themselves as mid-season call-ups if injuries / trades deplete the ML roster. Like Mejas-Breen last year.

With 8 RP slots ... a good chance they do. Those last 3 slots are not locked down. IF we buy into Yates - Pomeranz - Strahm - Stammen - P.Johnson (inside track) .... can make a case pro and con on all the others:

Guerra: out of minor league options ... can play the field (SS) in a pinch ... can impact the mix of position players kept ... oh, and he has an upper 90s FB.

Perdomo: has the experience ... can go multi-inngs ... was not that bad last season in relief.

Munoz: the future but has not pitched may minor league innings ... very young ... might be better served as the closer in AA while building stamina .. don't recall him doing much back to back days which could limit the use in the pen.

Castillo: more future but barely pitched last year ... still young ... see the Munoz logic to get time in the minors before assuming a ML workload.

Quantrill: better off starting in the minors than long man in the majors?

Are Bednar, Reyes, Wingenter ... right now ... better than Guerra and Perdomo?

So, Guerra and Perdomo probably have a very good chance of breaking with the club ... the others will be seen as call-ups as needed .. and based on history that may be often.

Quote from TatisJr on January 17, 2020, 3:24 pm

Barring an extremely ugly ST, I would expect Cal to get a ML roster spot. He’s too old and experienced to go to AA and I don’t want him anywhere near the PCL. No need to ruin his confidence giving up cheap homers in that launching pad league. Cal can be effective in relief, spot start and throw multi innings in relief. I think he showed enough last year to earn his spot on this roster. There was a stretch where he was the Padres best pitcher.

Quote from Ben Davey on January 17, 2020, 11:38 pm

Quote from WindsorUK on January 17, 2020, 2:44 pm

With Profar, Garcia, and Cronenworth on the roster, do any of Castillo, Vosler, or Quiroz stand a chance of making the roster?

And with the unforseen influx of all the veterans to the pen, do Guerra or Perdomo stand a chance of breaking camp with the big club?

Padres really like Quiroz.  I mean REALLY like Quiroz.  My guess would be if ANY infielder goes down, Quiroz becomes the everyday starter.  But, I dont see him on the Padres' roster as a bench player.  If you assume the Padres' have five bench spots they will go to... Hedges, Garcia, Cronenworth, and whichever two outfielders between Naylor, Myers, and Franchy (assuming Grisham and Margot start).  That already means no France.

As for pitching, I think Guerra makes the team.  He is not the same player I saw in Lake Elsinore.  The end of 2018 and all of last year he finally got his head on straight.  Its how he went from first time ever throwing off a mound in March to throwing in Petco in September.  Give him this offseason, I'm optimistic.

The Padres had a really deep pen even without Stammen.  Fenn, made a great point about the possibility that Munoz might not start the year with the club.  Especially if the Padres are worried about innings (he threw 58 last year when his previous high was 26).  I also think, at least early on, you see the "other" starters (Baez/Morejon/Nix/Cal) if they dont make the starting rotation to be in the minors as starters.  If you think any are starters, its not going to help them to throw maybe 1-2 innings once a week (Padres will probably play a lot of close games and you arnt going to use Baez ahead of probably 4 relievers).  For that reason it might help Perdomo as the guy who they dont mind tossing 4+ innings in a blowout and then not pitch for a week.

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 18, 2020, 6:11 am

2B ... reserve INF .. Quiroz should make for a interesting ST watch.

Hard to decode Preller’s comments some times but have heard that he acquired Profar with the view of him as a “super utility” player who COULD (MIGHT) secure 2B. Looking at Profar’s recent stats (offensively and defensively), I can see why just buying into him as the everyday 2B may be premature.

That situation could open a window for Quiroz ... will be 28 and seems to fit the new goal of high OBP ... plus a LHH. Has to overcome his non-roster status. He also has played some SS/3B/OF but mostly in the Mexican League before coming to the states.

IF we assume Profar (switch hitter), Garcia (LHH), and LHHs Grisham and Naylor (or Cordero) make the team ... Padres may want that last player to be a RHH for PH duties ... advantage France ... unless Profar and Margot end up “reserves” losing the starting spots to Grisham and Garcia. ST will be needed to sort this out.

Quote from fenn68 on January 18, 2020, 7:30 am

I know that most are wanting to move on from Myers in RF ... clearly his past performance has not lived up to expectations. However, beyond HOPING Cordero or Naylor (of course few want Naylor in RF either) can supplant him in RF for 2019 (even as a platoon option) ... not sure we will see that in 2019.

An honest look at Myers and he is "average" offensively and few RF are rated good defensively ... so he fits in. Looking at some of his splits (2019 and career) for wRC+:

Career: 107 (Total); 112 (v LHP); 105 (v RHP)

2019: 96 (Total); 130 (v LHP); 87 (v RH) ... plus note the 1st half Total of 91 IMPROVED to 103 in the 2nd half close to his career numbers.

So reasonable to project he will be a slightly above average hitter v both LHP and RHP ... which I can't rely on seeing out of Cordero or Naylor ... both of whom could benefit from regular playing time in AAA.

Pham in LF ... Grisham / Margot in CF ... Myers (full time) in RF opens up some flexibility for that 26th man spot. Mid-season, reevaluate. Plus, I would love to just see the Padres leave Myers alone in one defensive spot and down in the line-up playing regularly ... stop messing with his mind ... and see if the change in approach can extract some more production out of him.

Quote from Ben Davey on January 18, 2020, 9:32 am

The problem with Myers wasnt his OPS or OPS+.... well its a problem as hes paid 22.5 mil but not the big issue fans have.  He carried close around a .750 OPS for most of the year, it was his K rate.  Myers struck out in 34% of his AB, and there was a stretch in the middle of the year where it was closer t 40%.

I do agree with you, that maybe if we leave Myers alone he can go back to being closer to an .800 OPS player (his All-Star year in 2016 his K rate was 23.7%... a HUGE difference).  I am just not sure the Padres are going to give him the time if he struggles.  If you have Pham (always starting) then Margot, Grisham, Myers, Naylor and Cordero all fighting for two spots and two bench spots who is the odd man out, and if Myers struggles how could you play him over Grisham or Naylor? (assuming Franchy is in AAA)

Quote from fenn68 on January 18, 2020, 10:51 am

Given Margot’s struggles v RHP ... I see Grisham consumed by the CF role (plus few seem to think he is a RF).  So frustrating as Myers is ... his “average” offense in the threshold ... Naylor has not proven better (and clearly not better defensively) ... Cordero has not proven better without extended ML ABs (and he too has the ugly K%).

Myers may have set a very low bar to hurdle ... but have not seen either Naylor or Cordero elevate over that hurdle which should give Myers the inside track to start the season.

Now I do like Naylor’s potential as a hitter ... but has yet to show the power to play in RF considering his significant shortcoming defensively. Grisham ... I have to see whether to start 2020 he is that mega turnaround prospect that hit in the minors in 2019 or is that mediocre ML hitter he demonstrated AWAY from Miller Park. If he is the latter, might pull Cordero into CF (if he can stay healthy and hits ML pitching).

As of now not ready to assume 2 of Naylor, Cordero, Grisham, or Margot will provide better offense / defense combo than Myers. ST for those four should be enlightening.

Quote from fenn68 on January 19, 2020, 7:56 am

Maybe a reason for some optimism on Profar's production in 2020 vs in 2019. First his 2019 is just OK among the 2B with >400 PA he was 20th offensively (wRC+ at 89) and 17th defensively (dWAR). Nice but not game changing.  Did have 20 HR so had the going for him but low BA/OBP was worrisome.

However, looking at his BABIP ... at .218 he was the lowest among all ML players (207 players) with > 400 PA. He was even way below the next higher. That is incredibly low. Average BABIP is around .300 and the general assumption is that players (high or low) will move closer to average over time.

No idea the circumstances that generated that low BABIP but not unreasonable to assume that he will progress more towards the mean and, in turn, raise his BA/OBP which, in turn, will raise his wRC+ potentially elevating him to the upper half of ML 2B.

Could that have been a factor that motivated the Padres to trade for Profar and sign him to a surprisingly high $5.7MM deal? No guarantee for improvement but maybe a reason for optimism.

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 20, 2020, 11:06 am

Potentially another reason for some optimism. Usually, I worry about hitters moving to PETCO only to see their productivity to drop. Looking at Pham (and comparing him to Renfroe) ... he may be an exception given his batted ball approach. Consider:

Player ......... LD% ... GB% ... FB% in 2019

Pham ........... 32% ... 53% .... 25% (extreme GB/LD hitter)

Renfroe ....... 16% ... 36% .... 48% (extreme FB hitter)

Given the issues with the marine layer at PETCO along with the big OF in LA and SF ... Pham’s profile may fit extremely well and he may not have a major production drop off. Also consider:

Player .......... Pull .... Cent .... Opp%

Pham ........... 39% .... 36% .... 25% (hits to all fields)

Renfroe ....... 56% ..... 31% .... 13% (pull man pull)

Good chance the Padres have added an important piece in Pham for the next two seasons to bolster a weak offense. Conversely, TB may get a “better” Renfroe than we have seen now that he is out of PETCO and in the more hitter friendly AL East.