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Off Season Thread

re: Profar and his .218 BABIP in 2019 ...

Nice point, Fenn!

So I think you're saying that it's not unreasonable to hope for what Profar did in 2018 ... with even just a .269 BABIP, his slash stats were .254 .335 .458 in 524 ABs ... https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/profaju01.shtml

 

Quote from LynchMob on January 20, 2020, 1:20 pm

re: Profar and his .218 BABIP in 2019 ...

Nice point, Fenn!

So I think you're saying that it's not unreasonable to hope for what Profar did in 2018 ... with even just a .269 BABIP, his slash stats were .254 .335 .458 in 524 ABs ... https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/profaju01.shtml

 

Right! He should be better than his 2019 stats with just some normalization.

Well.....we all want some normalization around here!

 

The Padres have built a pretty strong veteran bullpen with the additions of Pomeranz and Pierce Johnson and the return of Stammen to support Yates. Plus a full time commitment to Strahm as a RP. Those five coupled with a pretty long list of young (and looking like quality) RP prospects ... balance LH / RH ... different styles should give the Padres the balanced depth needed for a winner.

Of the younger options ... all (except Guerra) have minor league options and would expect a lot of "as needed" shuttling between the ML and the minor leagues during the season.

Good to start 2020. Yes, RP often fade quickly but some also develop late ... the following guys did not achieve effectiveness until: Hoffman (26); Hand (26); Yates (30). So, would not under value Wingenter (26) or Perdomo (27) or discount the upside of Pierce Johnson (29).

With only Yates a FA after the season ... a big demand for quality RP ... a potential 40 man roster crunch next winter with some top prospects needing to be added ... will we see (trade deadline / next winter) some RP trades that could have some good value (even as a piece of a bigger trade) and does maybe lower the odds of resigning Yates.

If Manny just goes to career avgs.. ditto Myers and say Profar goes .280 BABIP which is still horrendous bad luck..... This trio could = +9 WAR vs 2019 by themselves ..

I however still think a trade is coming (if anything to consolidate the 40 man roster a bit)...

Can also see a wait and see approach ..team is in the postseason picture a midseason trade or 2.. Team is not.. A BP and/or OFer or 2 moving out..

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 23, 2020, 6:45 am

If Manny just goes to career avgs.. ditto Myers and say Profar goes .280 BABIP which is still horrendous bad luck..... This trio could = +9 WAR vs 2019 by themselves ..

I however still think a trade is coming (if anything to consolidate the 40 man roster a bit)...

Can also see a wait and see approach ..team is in the postseason picture a midseason trade or 2.. Team is not.. A BP and/or OFer or 2 moving out..

BTW Henry.....I still can't post on the SDUT message board.

I keep thinking one day all of those on that board would notice you haven't had a new member in a long time.

I signed up and have a username but there is no option to start a topic or a reply button.

I have sent 3 messages to the "contact us" and have never received a reply.

Just thought I'd pass it along in case one day someone wonders why there aren't any new posters joining in.

 

I guess in some analysis the idea of Hosmer being platoon v LHP keeps coming up. Hard to say if the Padres go that way with him ... but should given his stats (3 year wRC+ v LHP a poor 67). However, looking at the likely 26 man roster components ... a bit short on alternatives.

Padres have loaded up on LHH options since as a team really had difficulty with RHP (75% of the games) which thins out the RHH options for platooning.

Knee jerk reaction is usually Myers (117 wRC+ v LHP) but who replaces him in RF? Naylor, Grisham, and Cordero are all LHH. Not sure that helps all that much and since I prefer to just put Myers in one spot and hands off ... not liking that option.

Profar is likely at 2B over Garcia who can't hit LHP at all.

Another idea was Mejia (switch hitter) and use Hedges behind the plate and giving Mejia time off from behind the plate. Problem v LHP there wRC+ are worse than Hosmer ... Mejia (65 ... limited AB) and Hedges (57).

Potentially the better solution (and a case for him making the roster) is France ... limited PA (57) v LHP but a strong wRC+ of 96.

As an alternative, if Naylor makes the 26 man roster, he too ... even as LHH ... might be better v. LHH with a wRC+ if 80 (only 50 PA).

Given the lack of RHH on the bench other than France ... look for France to make the 26 man

I think this will depend more on Myers and guys like Grisham than on Hosmer.

Also France.

If Grisham hits his way into the lineup then I could see using Myers at 1b against some lefties...maybe 25-30 starts...along with starting in RF along with Grisham.

Or if France tears the cover off the ball in ST and/or the first month of the season I could see him getting some starts at 1b against lefties.

What we do know is that Hosmer isn't suddenly gonna hit lefties well.

The issue isn't "should" we sit Hos against most lefties it's "will" the new manager force him to the bench in order to add some offense.

I hope so because there isn't any good reason to leave him out there against lefties....not if it's time to win "now".

 

 

Looked at the 2017-19 ML wRC+ stats for the likely contenders for 2020:

player ............. v RHP ....... v LHP

Mejia ..............    96 ............. 65

Hedges ...........    73 ............. 57

======= (1B)

Hosmer ...........  125 ........... 67

France .............    78 ..........  96

======= (2B)

Profar ..............   88 ........... 113

Garcia ..............  98 ...........   39 (that is really bad in over 100 PA)

======= (fixtures as full time SS/3B/LF)

Tatis ................ 129 ........... 223

Machado ......... 108 ........... 143

Pham ..............  125 ........... 154

======== (CF)

Margot .............  76 ............ 106

Grisham ........... 94 ............   84

======== (RF)

Myers ............... 98 ............ 117

Naylor .............  91 .............  80

Understanding that some of the young options have limited PA (especially v LHP) these stats are not locks to repeat (better or worse?). However, v. LHP that is a pretty solid line-up and v RHP at least potentially "above average".

We will have to see if Cordero (L), Cronenworth (L), or Quiroz (L) can break in but doubt they bump France ... so maybe bump Naylor or, if Grisham struggles Cordero may replace him at he ML level.

Dennis Lin reporting talks with Boston heating up for Mookie Betts... Patino/Gore and Abrams OFF THE TABLE