Quote from hoffy51 on January 24, 2021, 6:39 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 23, 2021, 1:47 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 22, 2021, 6:22 pm

OK now I’m getting greedy.

Sign Rosenthal or Ozuna and let’s go!

I’d like to bring Hand back but we need another RH high leverage reliever in my opinion.

Probably can’t afford Ozuna but Rosey was so great for us and he just absolutely fell in love with San Diego.

 

OK, Ozuna IS greedy.  That's not happening.

BUT given what Pads have spent to build a 3-year World Series contender, at this point I think they absolutely should re-sign Rosenthal.  Trevor May's contract with the Mets:  2 / 15.5 + 500K incentives and Blake Treinen's with LAD  2 + club option / 17.5 (or 3 / 22.5 K) are very good templates.  They are extremely similar in age (Rosenthal-30, May-31, Treinen-32), high velo FB (Rosenthal-98, Treinen-97, May-96+), but Rosenthal @ 41.8% & May @ 39.6% had much better K% than Treinen 20.6% last year.

Based on these deals & Rosenthal being better, I would offer him a 2 / 20 deal as:  7.5 / 10 / 2.5 Buyout vs. 12.5 in 2023.

It's reasonable, actually a "value" deal relative to Pomeranz' based on track record.  Also, NOT so much for "$" since it's very clear none of us have any idea what Seidler's "ceiling" really is, adding Rosenthal would by Opening Day bump another RP off the roster, so it's logical to trade one > minimum salary with no options:  P. Johnson (1/3 +500k incentives or 2/5 + 500k) OR..... Stammen (1/5 + 500k incentives or 2/8 + 500k).

Obviously Stammen would save more $, but is "worth" less to other teams, so would have to add something to the trade... since my favorite idea of Lucchesi is already traded, I'll tackle that on $ page.

Finally, a different OR additional way to save 2021 $ would be to go to Manny & say "we want to bring Trevor back, but can't afford him in 2021  with the covid/$ situtation.... would you be willing to move 5 MM from 2021 to 2023 in exchange for a "gimme" 500K incentive added to your deal in 2021?"  Wouldn't he take that?

Just Machado re-work + Rosenthal would only "net" add 3 MM to 2021 payroll (but 10 MM to 2022).  Stammen + Rosenthal would "net" add 3.5 MM to 2021 payroll, but near certain save 500K in Stammen's 2021 incentives, plus his 1 MM buyout after season assuming could trade 100% of his contract.

I absolutely agree with signing Rosenthal. If they can afford only one more signing it has to be him. If you're this close to having a completed team challenging the Dodgers and hoping for a world series crown, you must go all in.

As far as signing a back-up centerfielder, that pales in comparison to signing Rosenthal. If they decide to keep both Mateo (R) and O'Grady (L), the team would be quite versatile along with Kim (R), Profar (S), Cronenworth (L) and Caratini (S).  Mateo can play infield and outfield, Profar can play infield and outfield, O'Grady can play all three outfield positions and first base, Kim can play infield and probably outfield with some practice, the same for Cronenworth. That's a lot of flexibility.

If the NL has the DH (which I doubt will happen this year) they will rotate it and mix and match.

So, I agree with you, that leaves Rosenthal. SIGN HIM!

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 24, 2021, 10:10 am

Quote from jcp2400 on January 23, 2021, 5:49 pm

Given they waived capable SD native Greg Allen, it seems clear they are content with riding it with Grish over a full season and letting Crowenworth, Kim, Profar, and even Mateo some spot starts when needed.

Profar had + defense in LF, so CF might not be too much of a stretch for a short period. Kim Crowenworth and Mateo all have + to ++ speed and athleticism that we could probably live with them if needed...remember Dodgers excel at shifting players around but Hernandez and Taylor aren’t exactly + defenders in CF but they can go there when called

IF Grisham gets hurt a more likely scenario is to pick someone up for cheap at the deadline if those four aren’t cutting it, but got to imagine at least one steps up. We did live with amarista in CF

The player they got back in trade for the DFA triggered trade of Allen; upper level LHRP James Reeves looks pretty decent, but the Padres would much rather have had Allen clear Waivers & be available in AAA.  However, while defensive ability wise he would be great AAA depth, him having no options would be very limiting; if recalled, would likely end up having to DFA him again, etc.

I think the timing of the DFA might have been strategic; better to lose Allen "now" & be able to plan/sign a guy, than to make the move in ST & lose him when there might not be even a minors level replacement.

But Profar is the 4th OF full stop.  Not going to get a guy like Pillar or Marisnick to be the 5th OF.  DO "need" an experienced MLB RH CF capable OF who is a better fit to start a limited # of games in CF vs LHP  for Grisham.  Talking 1-2 MM max possibly Minors FA type guys with maybe DeShields & Maybin topping lists, or possibly a trade in ST around an excess MLB RP for maybe a younger OF fitting the bill...  basically a guy to legitimately compete for really the 4th of 5 bench spots with O'Grady & Mateo.

Quote from jcp2400 on January 24, 2021, 1:09 pm

Reporters are saying Yankees haul for Taillon was greater than the Padres haul for Musgrove...lesser haul for the better pitcher Preller is a madman

Quote from Randy Manese on January 24, 2021, 1:25 pm

I don't believe the Padres, in Preller's time, has ever signed the very top rated international free agents as rated by most baseball sources, particularly Baseball America.  Those signings have typically gone to the Yankees, White Sox, Cubs, Dodgers, Tampa Bay, Atlanta.  Yet despite not signing the top players and being penalized for 2 years for the last year they could exceed the marketplace, many of those players were turned into valuable major league assets.

I agree his focus has been on athletic middle infielders and outfielders vice power guys, but the competition for those power guys are fierce and many are locked up way early in their teen years so it's not just a matter of waltzing in and flashing more money to entice a prospect and his supporters to a relatively unproven team like the Padres over teams who have long histories as proven winners.

I go with taking the best players available, whether international or via draft, and sorting them out later.  Particularly, the more pitchers you can sign the better because the attrition rate is so high.  I'm looking forward to how the most recent signings and the upcoming July draft help re-stock our farm system to keep the waves of talent coming in the years to come.

Quote from Randy Manese on January 25, 2021, 8:17 am

With the Padres payroll apparently very close to $170 million, it seems doubtful they are going to sign Rosenthal to add to a huge, for them, payroll in this time of uncertain revenues.  It seems like that last 7 million paid out was going to be either Yates, Profar or Rosenthal and Profar took it.  I was in the "hoping to sign Rosenthal" camp but I can see the advantage of having Profar over a much longer season and the likelihood there might be an arm or two out of the many available that can rise to the occasion in the bullpen that would offset Rosenthal.  It will be interesting to see how much Rosenthal gets - if 7 million was actually offered, then I thought that was fair for the short time he pitched after struggling the last couple of years.  Good luck to Rosey!

Quote from fenn68 on January 25, 2021, 8:39 am

Quote from Randy Manese on January 25, 2021, 8:17 am

With the Padres payroll apparently very close to $170 million, it seems doubtful they are going to sign Rosenthal to add to a huge, for them, payroll in this time of uncertain revenues.  It seems like that last 7 million paid out was going to be either Yates, Profar or Rosenthal and Profar took it.  I was in the "hoping to sign Rosenthal" camp but I can see the advantage of having Profar over a much longer season and the likelihood there might be an arm or two out of the many available that can rise to the occasion in the bullpen that would offset Rosenthal.  It will be interesting to see how much Rosenthal gets - if 7 million was actually offered, then I thought that was fair for the short time he pitched after struggling the last couple of years.  Good luck to Rosey!

Padres probably need to "hold" on some payroll reserves to react to any unexpected needs that emerge during the season / trade deadline. Given that some of us were questioning whether they can go to $135MM ... then $150MM ... have to think $170MM is already well above expectations and a stretch of resources.

Never know what Rosenthal's camp is thinking (or other teams' offers) but since most still view him near the top of the RP choices (and multiple suitors) ... probably near $10/MM AAV for 2 years ($20MM).

I am questioning the $10MM deal that Richards just got ... after a so-so 2020 with the Padres .... so?

Quote from fenn68 on January 25, 2021, 10:18 am

Bill Shaikin

The Cactus League was hoping MLB might push back the start of spring training, as we reported two weeks ago. Now the Cactus League and the leaders of Arizona's host cities have formally asked MLB to delay the start of spring training.

=======================

Scheduled a little over 3 weeks from now .... cities still worried about COVID issues.

Shortening ST no big deal from 6 weeks not a big issue and still able to start the season on time.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 25, 2021, 11:23 am

I think AJ is probably just going to be value shopping in the RP market. Still plenty of quality options out there and some of them are likely going to have to settle for lesser deals. Have to think we would be an attractive option for anyone that finds themselves in that situation. If nothing materializes we should still be solid. I think fangraphs projected us to have the 3rd best bullpen in the league recently.

Quote from hoffy51 on January 25, 2021, 12:33 pm

No DH, no expanded playoffs.