Quote from fenn68 on November 20, 2020, 3:26 pm

Rays Designate Hunter Renfroe For Assignment

Renfroe, 28, was Tampa Bay’s primary right fielder this season and a relatively high-profile addition via trade last winter. However, the former Padres slugger hit just .156/.252/.393 this season and was projected to earn more than $3.5MM in arbitration, making him an obvious non-tender candidate for the low-payroll Rays.

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An injured Pham > healthy Renfroe in 2020?

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 21, 2020, 9:45 am

That went about as expected for Padres.  I admit I didn't predict Mason Thompson, but not that surprised by his selection.  With all the trades above him, I would already have had him at bottom of Top 30; Padres thinking highly of him will now push him further up the list.  MLB.com rankings not the be-all/end-all especially in a year with no minors.

Thompson was drawing raves/one of the standouts at 2019 (Minors) ST, then went out and was bad at Elsinore for 5-6 starts then hurt... again.  Padres would know better than any how he did at the Instructional League in Arizona that just happened.  Obviously they're seeing higher long term upside with him than with, say Lake Bachar or Pedro Avila; and worried other teams saw it too.  It does seem like maybe Thompson should shift to the bullpen to reach MLB more quickly.... we'll see.

I'm glad they didn't gamble on Reggie Lawson.  FWIW:  Overall pick in 2016 draft / MLB.com 2016 draft ranking:

Lawson:   71st / #100,   M. Thompson:  85th / #109,   Lucchesi: 114th / not in top 200,   Bachar:  144th / #123

Quote from fenn68 on November 21, 2020, 10:38 am

I suspect they still see the upside "stuff" in Thompson still being able to be harnessed (think only 22) ... stuff to get him a significant over slot signing out of HS and a "tough sign" slipping to the 3rd round. Pretty sure other organizations have seen enough of him to see the same.

A run of injuries has derailed his development and apparently the Padres don't seem put off by the history.

Agree that a run out of the pen may be in his near future ... could be his best route to the ML sooner. If they choose, he now has 3 option years to develop (or bounce up and down) plus given the age and lack of minor league options on the current RHRP group he gives some quality potential in waiting.

Quote from fenn68 on November 21, 2020, 10:49 am

Next stop ... Dec 3 date to tender contracts. Hard to see the Padres doing any "non-tenders" given the lack of position players on the roster and the injury to Clevinger. Think Pham, Davies, and Garcia are "safe" for now ... the rest are not big contract issues.

Then, Dec 10th Rule 5 where I would expect the Padres to be silent with a full 40 man.

Trades / FA signings ... hard to time ... but looking like any "major" move rests on knowing better the map for a 2021 season (DH in NL, start of season, length of season, limits on attendance, playoff structure).

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 21, 2020, 12:07 pm

Next stop ... Dec 3 date to tender contracts. Hard to see the Padres doing any "non-tenders" given the lack of position players on the roster and the injury to Clevinger. Think Pham, Davies, and Garcia are "safe" for now ...

Agree on Davies, but not the others...  chance of Non-Tender

• Garcia -  90%.  I just don't see the Padres or any other team paying > 1.5 MM in "Covid Budget" 2021 to a 31 y.o. non-athletic, no power, can't hit LHP, whose primary position 2B is covered by runner up R.O.Y. who is 5 years younger & also LH...  GG is really good, patient LH PH, good bunter, great vet presence "glue" local guy.  But he's not tradeable at that salary.  If you tender him, he's either on the team, or you're wasting the portion of the salary you have to pay him if he's cut in ST.  This $ would be way better utilized towards Profar re-sign.
• Pham - 35% and rising.   Pham's value to the Padres weirdly increases AND decreases with Clevinger gone.  Rebound/peak/walk year motivated Pham could help drive near top in MLB offense & help "carry" team to playoff position despite SP ?'s.  BUT a lot of the "point" of having Pham on team in 2021 disappeared with Clevinger TJ; and he'll have to be replaced next year anyway.   Renfroe N-T makes  clear could save $ at the position; could probably sign Profar AND Renfroe for very close to 8 MM total, and that team would be WAY better defensively & more versatile/flexible.  The big question is what would Pham's value be in 2021 as a FA?  Could his full salary be traded?  Hurt by the lost season last year & weak market, but would be making him a FA 1 yr early; might get a multi-year contract.
• Davies - 10% and falling.  Agree Pads can't really seriously risk losing 3 of last season's mid-year SP's (Clev, Davies, G. Richards).  But there is a small chance having to do with the wide variance in potential salary for Davies, the likelihood of some regression, and (mostly) accounting for a wild & unforeseen Preller move like a major FA signing or trade; could try to align a replacement into next season with Clevinger.
• "Surprise" - 10%.  This would most likely be Strahm.  Again, very unlikely, but not impossible given unknown budget issues, ownership outlook on 2021 less Clev, and possibility of Preller whipsaw trades or FA remaking pen.  But Strahm, Pagan, etc seem pretty easily trade-able at their projected salaries.

Quote from fenn68 on November 21, 2020, 1:05 pm

Preller would have to be pretty confident he could sign a replacement for less money and similar production since I doubt he or the organization is just giving up on contention (even without Clevinger). Sort of a chicken or egg question as which comes first. Zip in house to cover Garcia or Pham in 2021. No real guarantee any FA will sign with SD over other bidders.

Plus he has to have in the back of his mind that the NL DH might arrive and needs to have the flexibility to add a player to fill that role or replace Pham who goes to DH. So, again Zip in house for DH.

Garcia at maybe $1.6MM is "only" $1.0 MM above a league minimum replacement. Not sure they can come up with a better option at less than the $1.6MM (even though he may not be may ideal). Internally they would have to go with? Marcano on the roster who last played in low A? Castillo up for AA in 2019?

Pham is backed up by Ona? Allen? Mateo? Mejia? ... none are even established as back-up ML players. I would have liked to non-tender him but the risk to the team's success is too great.

Now if Preller can sign a FA replacement or swing a trade before the tender deadline ... different. Otherwise, tender to maintain control until they get the upgrade (and a DH is known). If they still want to move on before the season starts .. think if they release him mid-ST they only owe about 25% ($2MM?) ... sort of an insurance policy.

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I am getting no sense that the current expected payroll level is a problem while they still are trying to contend ... and they still are in a good position to contend for the wild card. So, doubt money will "force" a non-tender.

 

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 21, 2020, 5:18 pm

Pham or Profar will be our left fielder.

I don’t see us letting Pham go unless it is to sign Profar to a 3-4 year deal.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 21, 2020, 10:49 pm

There should be more "Greg Garcia" type guys available as FA than the enormous supply of LH power DH "Mitch Morelands" apparently available for </= 3 MM

Quote from fenn68 on November 22, 2020, 6:09 am

Trying to find AND SIGN a replacement for Garcia who is less that $1.6MM AND better out of that long list of potential 2B replacements is possible but will that player actually want to sign with the Padres to be a bench option behind Cronenworth or sign for that amount on a team that would give them more playing time? Padres are not alone in seeking upgrades for the middle INF bench which should push any good replacement into same (or greater) cost than Garcia.

When I look at the internal options behind Cronenworth ... other than Garcia ... none of ML quality. That suggests that the Padres should tender Garcia AND look for another middle INF option of ML quality to go into ST. Preferably a RHH who may also back-up SS/3B besides 2B. Not going to be less than $1.6MM ... if Preller can find such a player and sign him.

If the Padres view themselves as a contender ... need to put a few bucks into the bench just to cover injuries over a 162 game slate ... Cronenworth pulls a hamstring and a big hole opens even with Garcia. Keep both Garcia and that PTNL add .... two reserve INF ... Mateo to the OF with Allen ... Ona to the minors where he should be.