Quote from Ben Davey on February 15, 2021, 2:38 pm

IMO the number of pitchers might rely on if we have a DH this year.  (I still think it happens, even if its not announced until late March).

With DH: You have 10 starters (8 + Profar/Kim) + your backup catcher.  No one else plays unless its using someone like Mateo for a late inning stolen base.  Its much easier to give Manny/Tatis/etc.. a day off by just moving them to DH and keeping the starters the same.

Without DH: Profar becomes your main PH with Kim but will need more PH and more players who can give players a day off.  Harder to find a place for specialty player like Mateo.

Considering the notion that pitchers will be even more babied this year (as Fenn said few over 150+) the DH is the logical way to fix it.

Quote from Ben Davey on February 15, 2021, 2:49 pm

One thing that is surprising is the way Preller is building his bullpen.  It looks like he is building his pen for a normal season where your starters are goin 6+ innings a start. That way you have your dominant relievers only pitching 2-3 innings and the game is over.

But in this season where we only expect starters to go 4-6 innings a start, the bullpen will be reliant on even more innings.  To me, this is the perfect time for piggyback starts.  This is something I think the Dodgers will try to do with their starting pitching depth.  Go Urias for 5 innings then switch to May for the last four (if he gets in trouble you have the closer for the final innings).  Then you have Bauer have a normal start before another piggyback with Price/Gaterol or whomever.  But this way your best relievers are only throwing every other day at most.  What I am afraid of is the team looking amazing at the beginning but by July/August our big relievers start to stumble, and the wheels have fallen off by September.

The reason I ask is this... Lets say we are up 7-1 after 5 innings, but Lamet is at 95 pitches already.  Who do you bring in?  Maybe you bring in a Strahm or Stammen for 2 innings, but youre still going to burn through probably 3 relievers in a blowout win.  Whose the mopup guy that you can throw out there for 3+ innings?  Maybe Morejon, but every indication is that the Padres want him starting, plus I cant find room in the pen for him.  It sure looks like everyone in the Padres' pen is a one and done pitcher.  Meaning more games for pitchers and more likely to breakdown by Septemeber.

Quote from fenn68 on February 15, 2021, 3:09 pm

Quote from Ben Davey on February 15, 2021, 2:29 pm

In regard to the taxi squad, I think clarification on 40 man will be the key.

When I originally read the rules it sounded just like a 3rd QB that is inactive for the game (as NFL as a roster and a game day active roster that can change every game).  But I get the interpretation about not wasting up an option that it could either be an out of option player (like Guerra) or the exact opposite where its a player who doesnt need to be on the 40 man.

It makes WAY more sense to have the taxi squad be emergency non40 man roster players, that could be on the active roster for 24 hours without needing a roster spot or even be on the 40 man.  I get the interpretation of the rules where someone like Webster Rivas could be on the taxi squad without being on the 40 man.  Nola has a test that comes back inconclusive or +.  During that days game, Rivas can be on the active roster and even get in a game if need be, but by the next day he either needs to be on the 40 man/active roster, or back on the taxi squad with Campy called up.  These players are getting paid more than in the minor leagues and of course big league perdiem, but could spend the entire year never getting one AB (almost like a bullpen catcher).

I could see a rotating taxi squad membership ... only really exists for road game insurance then goes back to a minor league assignment / AZ / or sits around doing zip. If anyone was on the taxi squad regularly they would at best get only a half season (and a pretty chopped up half season) in the minors .... not good for them or for the minor league club or who replaces them on the minor league club.

Think the taxi squad only makes about $108 per day over their minor league salary ... good but not great if you are a real prospect needing that time to develop.

Maybe a home for non-prospect veterans on a rotational basis ... they still get to pitch in the minors and make a few extra bucks. The team would just need to have (as they do normally) have a couple of spare parts in AZ to back fill if a AA or AAA arm is called to taxi squad duty.

Clearly the Padres have enough non-roster AAA/AA RP to make that work. As for catcher, may be more aligned with a non-prospect who maybe has some time in the minors ... as I suggested before someone like Cantu or Seagle just to hold the spot until reinforcements arrive. Oddly, as it stands, would like Rivas playing everyday as the #4 in the queue over taxi squad duty.

Quote from fenn68 on February 15, 2021, 3:16 pm

Quote from Ben Davey on February 15, 2021, 2:38 pm

IMO the number of pitchers might rely on if we have a DH this year.  (I still think it happens, even if its not announced until late March).

With DH: You have 10 starters (8 + Profar/Kim) + your backup catcher.  No one else plays unless its using someone like Mateo for a late inning stolen base.  Its much easier to give Manny/Tatis/etc.. a day off by just moving them to DH and keeping the starters the same.

Without DH: Profar becomes your main PH with Kim but will need more PH and more players who can give players a day off.  Harder to find a place for specialty player like Mateo.

Considering the notion that pitchers will be even more babied this year (as Fenn said few over 150+) the DH is the logical way to fix it.

Agree there is still a good chance for the DH at the last minute. Boils down to the owners not demanding concessions from the Union. Virtually no economic value to either side in 2021 and would be a health and safety plus. Owners don't seem to see the Union gets little out of the DH economically in 2021 (all the big bats are basically signed) so not really motivated to make a big economic concession for the owner's benefit.

 

Quote from fenn68 on February 15, 2021, 3:38 pm

Quote from Ben Davey on February 15, 2021, 2:49 pm

One thing that is surprising is the way Preller is building his bullpen.  It looks like he is building his pen for a normal season where your starters are goin 6+ innings a start. That way you have your dominant relievers only pitching 2-3 innings and the game is over.

But in this season where we only expect starters to go 4-6 innings a start, the bullpen will be reliant on even more innings.  To me, this is the perfect time for piggyback starts.  This is something I think the Dodgers will try to do with their starting pitching depth.  Go Urias for 5 innings then switch to May for the last four (if he gets in trouble you have the closer for the final innings).  Then you have Bauer have a normal start before another piggyback with Price/Gaterol or whomever.  But this way your best relievers are only throwing every other day at most.  What I am afraid of is the team looking amazing at the beginning but by July/August our big relievers start to stumble, and the wheels have fallen off by September.

The reason I ask is this... Lets say we are up 7-1 after 5 innings, but Lamet is at 95 pitches already.  Who do you bring in?  Maybe you bring in a Strahm or Stammen for 2 innings, but youre still going to burn through probably 3 relievers in a blowout win.  Whose the mopup guy that you can throw out there for 3+ innings?  Maybe Morejon, but every indication is that the Padres want him starting, plus I cant find room in the pen for him.  It sure looks like everyone in the Padres' pen is a one and done pitcher.  Meaning more games for pitchers and more likely to breakdown by Septemeber.

Whether it is a 8 or 9 man pen ... think one has to be a legit multi inning options / spot starter (or 6th starter). Not sure I see that in the current mix (excluding the prospects). Don't see that in Stammen any more and Strahm (who I really like in short relief) has shown not to be all the good starting / long relief.

I guess in theory (would not work in real life) ... 5 starters going 5 innings ... split 8 relief pitchers into 4 pitcher pods and pitch them every other day to cover innings 6-9. Starters end up around 150 innings are RP end up around 81 (probably too much a work load for all of them). If they maintained a 9th RP ... could serve as the wild card filler in blow outs or to just give a day off to a RP as needed. Starters would be in good shape but some of the relief pitches would have their arm go dead by mid-season.

Go 6 starters (6 innings per game) ... 6 pitchers in 3 pitcher pods (7-9th) every other day ... 13 arm is the swing man as needed and if 14 pitchers you get two swing men and better rest for the pen. Starters still get 150 innings ... pen is a bit more rested with the 6th starter picking up the extra load at 150 innings.

Probably some variation / combination in reality ... with a lot of use of call-ups / IL. Should be a lot of head scratching during the season to make this work. Winning during the season to get a playoff slot and being in form for the playoffs are both critical.

Quote from Ben Davey on February 15, 2021, 4:50 pm

I like the pod idea but it makes it hard to justify playing Pom if we are getting blown out.

I do agree that a six man rotation can save your starters and Tingler speculated that might be the case at least to start the year.  If a pitcher is making one fewer start a month, then going 6+ would still only put them at 150 innings.

But the pen might be an issue if you are trying to have no (meaningful) reliever throw more than maybe 70 innings this year (after most didnt even throw 40 last season).  Maybe it does free up someone like Altavilla if he gets told "you will get one full time through the rotation 2x a week" which could mean we have Yu/Alt games with no other pitchers.

Quote from fenn68 on February 15, 2021, 5:42 pm

All teams are going to have to make some roster usage decisions that don’t fit the “normal” parameters.

Most would see a 13-13 mix of pitchers - position players the best combo in a non-DH environment allowing for “rest” of position players and PH ... but at the same time “normal” on a good team has SP going maybe 180 innings and often some flexibility.

If a team believes in the 150 innings limit to keep healthy and effective SP into the playoffs is critical ... maybe be forced to the extra pitcher shorting the position player and in turn making the bench players more versatile to cover multiple roles.

If a team is not concerned about the pitching usage and is more concerned the lack of position players will cost them more wins during the season (and maybe the playoffs) ...may stick with 13 pitchers. Probably a team where they don’t have a fixed eight set of starters and need to shuffle starting position players in and out.

So, maybe roster dependent. With the Padres, and a starting 8 that is pretty fixed and Profar, Kim, Caratini on the bench ... probably the extra pitcher is more critical. Still an upgrade for the 4th bench of slot over both O’Grady and Mateo would have merit.

Sure going to be a new twist on roster / player management that will be fun to analyze at the end of the season.

Quote from fenn68 on February 15, 2021, 5:52 pm

Mets come to an agreement with Pillar ... no terms yet. Now Pillar and Almora can cover CF ... better than Nimmo who was not good in CF (but good in LF). Conforto in RF.

Mets end up with a “extra” pretty good bat Dominic Smith who was in LF but should be at 1B except Alonso is at 1B. Maybe they are betting on the DH coming for 2021.

Mets are looking for SP pitching (they are also deep in on Rosenthal for the pen) ... maybe a trade for that SP.

Don’t see a match for the Padres. Mets can’t deal Almora until sometime mid-season as I recall because he signed as a FA this winter.

Quote from BoosterSD on February 15, 2021, 6:03 pm

It might be a long shot, could Jacob Nix be in the mix for the 6th man/long relief duty. Really nice article today in the UT about him. He is sounding confidently humble about his revised mechanics and physical regimen that has increased his fastball into the upper 90s, and increased the performance of his breaking stuf.