Quote from Randy Manese on April 2, 2022, 10:40 am

Fully support this trade if it happens.  All the Padres' players named so far have "issues" that have prevented them from retaining or gaining value with the team.  Hosmer's is well documented besides his salary's impact on the CBT even with it going down to 13M next year - still believe he opts out, however.  Paddack has greatly improved his curve ball but seems to have lost that pinpoint location he had earlier with the fastball and change does not look the same as before.  Pagan is an extreme fly ball pitcher and  when he misses, the ball gets hit very hard.  Seemed to be doing better this spring but track record over last two years not that good.

Smith had a down year after two very good years.  Defense is below average in LF and 1b, but could rotate with Voit at 1b/DH and Profar in LF, on occasion.  Likely not a big power guy but if he can revert to his "norm" of 2019 and 2020 (although less than 250 AB's each season), then we're seeing a 275+ hitter with and OBP around 365.  That would work in our offense.

Mets will probably back out but we'll see.  Lot of moving roster parts if this is done.

Quote from fenn68 on April 2, 2022, 10:53 am

With today's disclosure that Scherzer has some issue that may delay his start of season (which may also make them worry about the old guy's ability to power through the season) combined with DeGrom's long term injury ... Paddack even with his issue may look a lot better and become the trigger of the trade.

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Looked at the last 3 seasons ... Smith vs. Hosmer.

Smith has been the better hitter: 114 wRC+ to 100 wRC+ and the better defender (albeit mostly in LF). Plus if we normalize the HR ... Smith may come out ahead ... no idea on ballpark factors but at least as good.

I am currently inclined to put Smith in LF full time ... let Voit try to handle 1B (may be limited but maybe be better than Hosmer recently) ... open the DH for the best option for that game ... Profar (#); Beaty (L); Alfaro or a "rest day" for one of the regulars.

NOT GOING TO HAPPEN but if they really really see Abrams as ready .... Abrams starts at 2B, Cronenworth to 1B, Voit remains as DH, Smith starts in LF, Profar super utility. That would present an outstanding defensive INF.

Quote from Randy Manese on April 2, 2022, 11:01 am

As currently structured (25M aside), opens up about 18.5M in CBT.  We previously only had about 6M to work with.  This could get you Conforto for one year at a "show me" rate plus options and even a shot at one of the Oakland pitchers, if move one other piece or two, like Caratini, for example.  Not much time to set the rosters for opening the season, so we should know sometime today or  on Sunday.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on April 2, 2022, 11:06 am

So if the reports out there are accurate it's Hosmer, Paddack, Pagan, and 25m for Smith. I've seen some discrepancies on the cash, but 25m seems to be the most reported. I'm trying to figure out exactly how the new rule about traded players having their average annual values recalculated for tax purposes works. Hosmer has an 18m hit for us on his original contract. If that gets recalculated at a 4/25 rate for us we're saving 11.75m a year for tax purposes going forward. Pagan and Paddack are at a combined 4.55m. Smith is at 3.95m. We would probably add 2 guys at the minimum to replace them, so net we save just under 11m. I think that's how it works with the new CBA anyway. I'm not 100% sure.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on April 2, 2022, 11:18 am

Some reports now that the Mets will flip Hosmer or that it could potentially become a 3 team deal with the Cubs getting involved.

Quote from fenn68 on April 2, 2022, 11:21 am

Quote from Randy Manese on April 2, 2022, 11:01 am

As currently structured (25M aside), opens up about 18.5M in CBT.  We previously only had about 6M to work with.  This could get you Conforto for one year at a "show me" rate plus options and even a shot at one of the Oakland pitchers, if move one other piece or two, like Caratini, for example.  Not much time to set the rosters for opening the season, so we should know sometime today or  on Sunday.

However the money paid to the METS does count against the AAV for CBT purposes. Not sure on the calculaton but suspect is is based on each year of cash distribution.

So if the $25MM is distributed $10MM in 2022 and the $5MM in each of the following 3 years, SD AAV for CBT would drop only $8.5MM and create an under threshold level at about $15MM. On one hand Padres would like to keep some of that in reserve for trade deadline moves but on the other hand if going over puts them in a better position for the playoff they likely would do it FOR THE RIGHT PLAYER on a FAIR CONTRACT.

So, is the contract Conforto is demanding "fair" and can the Padres expect him to be the "right player" given the terms of that contract? No idea which Conforto will show up in 2022.

Quote from TucsonClip on April 2, 2022, 11:22 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on April 2, 2022, 11:18 am

Some reports now that the Mets will flip Hosmer or that it could potentially become a 3 team deal with the Cubs getting involved.

Hosmer has a no trade clause on a second deal this season. Likely needs to be a 3 way, with a team not on his no trade list, or get him to waive it.

Quote from Notmyopic on April 2, 2022, 11:27 am

Another option now, is an Upton reunion when the Angels release him.  Not sure if he has anything left though.

Quote from fenn68 on April 2, 2022, 11:30 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on April 2, 2022, 11:18 am

Some reports now that the Mets will flip Hosmer or that it could potentially become a 3 team deal with the Cubs getting involved.

Now that makes some sense for the METS. Interesting wrinkle and might suggest more players going in some direction ... Cubs would not just take Hosmer even at the reduced contract (I don't think).

The new CBT rules are unclear but guessing the Padres calculation would be deleting the AAV associated with Hosmer in total but adding back the cash paid to the METS. Maybe the METS get a recalculation on the $59MM/4 years less the money coming from SD.