Quote from BoosterSD on February 24, 2022, 11:35 am

Quote from fenn68 on February 24, 2022, 9:30 am

Quote from BoosterSD on February 24, 2022, 7:49 am

Okay, just read a quick blurb on CBS website, with the talking heads trying to predict where Kris Bryant lands. One said SEA, another said PHI, and the last Mike Axisa stated, head says PHI, heart says SEA, and the little devil on his shoulder says SD.

Money not withstanding, does Bryant fit SDs needs? Axisa says that Bryant in an above average LFer defensively, and his bat is very good. Not LHH (my gripe), but still another high BA/OBP guy capable of 30 HRs and almost a 100 RBIs.

Thoughts????

 

Side: have to wonder if the CBA approval is during March ... ST/season shortened ... will owners be able to get a good deals with some FA once they feel their options of teams / demand is curtailed?

 

Axisa and (one other I think) were thinking that Bryant might be open to a one year deal due to the lockout. So maybe a 1 year deal? Or with the possible departure of Myers, maybe SD bites the bullet so to speak and signs him to a longer deal.

CBS did note that there is some concern about his swing not aging well.

Quote from BoosterSD on February 24, 2022, 11:39 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 24, 2022, 10:57 am

His production hasn't been that great the last couple years but still very good and maybe he just needs the change of scenery to get back to an MVP level?

 

 

2020 was his only down year in his career. Otherwise, he has pretty much been a .265 BA, .360 OBP with around 27 HRs and 85 RBIs.

I would take that from LF and what we got from Pham and Profar last season.

Quote from fenn68 on February 24, 2022, 12:19 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on February 24, 2022, 11:35 am

Quote from fenn68 on February 24, 2022, 9:30 am

Quote from BoosterSD on February 24, 2022, 7:49 am

Okay, just read a quick blurb on CBS website, with the talking heads trying to predict where Kris Bryant lands. One said SEA, another said PHI, and the last Mike Axisa stated, head says PHI, heart says SEA, and the little devil on his shoulder says SD.

Money not withstanding, does Bryant fit SDs needs? Axisa says that Bryant in an above average LFer defensively, and his bat is very good. Not LHH (my gripe), but still another high BA/OBP guy capable of 30 HRs and almost a 100 RBIs.

Thoughts????

 

Side: have to wonder if the CBA approval is during March ... ST/season shortened ... will owners be able to get a good deals with some FA once they feel their options of teams / demand is curtailed?

 

Axisa and (one other I think) were thinking that Bryant might be open to a one year deal due to the lockout. So maybe a 1 year deal? Or with the possible departure of Myers, maybe SD bites the bullet so to speak and signs him to a longer deal.

CBS did note that there is some concern about his swing not aging well.

I worry about any player over 30 having his swing deteriorate. (Note some are saying the same about Freddie Freeman). I guess the analytical folks are showing major declines in the 30s for “most” 1B/DH types … so may in some way apply to Bryant.

So, 6 years for Bryant covers his age 30-35 … some risk in the latter years at $25-26MM. Have to consider that. On the other hand, not sure signing Bryant on a big 1 year deal … with its impact on potential other adds and the luxury tax might not make sense for the Padres.

IF Bryant signs with someone on a 1 year deal …. I would expect it would be a $30MM+ deal with a team in contention and in a hitter friendly park to build value. Remember Scott Boras is his agent … so he will not go anywhere on a bargain deal.

Quote from fenn68 on February 24, 2022, 12:29 pm

Short run vs long run guarantees. If they signed Bryant (6 years) at age 30 … Machado (5 years) turns 30 in July … Hosmer (4 years) is 33 … in 2024 we could see age related declines in three of the core offense and be in a position to not be able to move big contracts (see today with Myers and Hosmer).

Actually Cronenworth is 28 with 4 control years and will be building a pretty good arb salary give his production. So he too will be in his early 30 in the same timeframe.

No easy answer to this situation but something to consider.

Quote from fenn68 on February 25, 2022, 5:36 am

I understand that few really care about the money side of building a roster but the Padres are getting close to a scenario that will create a collapses starting in 2023.

Now we do need to know the new CBA rules but the Owners have suggested a $215MM luxury tax level with a 50% penalty for a second time offender. Padres are at $214.8MM and was a first time offender in 2021. Basically any add for 2022 would cost 50% more than the stated contract.

Many would say that is a small price to win in 2022 (maybe win?). However, 2023 could become a bigger problem. Consider FA after 2022: Musgrove, Clevinger, N.Martinez (player option), Stammen, Johnson, Suarez, and Myers. That would lower AAV by about $34MM BUT there is a large group of arbitration eligible players that should add about $10MM AAV … so a “net” reduction of only $$24MM with the need to replace 3 SP and 3 RP even if there was no new signing for 2022. Penalties will get worse for a 3rd violation of the tax threshold.

To navigate this for 2022 and 2023 … Preller needs to:

1. Preserve the minimum salary prospects that may impact 2023 … Abrams, Campusano, Weathers, Gore, Morejon, et al. Padres will need them on the 26 man to open payroll space for critical signing / extensions (e.g. Musgrove).

2. Aggressively trade salary with less critical players (not bundled with near term prospects) without seeking a major return. Focus should be on FA to be or players in (or will be) in arbitration.

3.  Focus the 2022 adds (likely one decent bat … maybe two) on low cost / short term (1 year) paid for with the moves suggested in point #2. Remember still should keep some flexibility for trade deadline adds if needed.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 25, 2022, 12:59 pm

I agree if Bryant wants a 1 year deal he will probably not come to Petco and if someone offers him 5+ years he won’t either.

Anyone think he will settle for a 3-4 year deal?

I don’t think there’s any way we let Musgrove leave when his contact is up…..I also think if Clevinger stays healthy there’s a good chance he stays as well.

Relief pitchers not so much….I think that will be handled by prospects/failed starters or some KT style dumpster diving.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on February 25, 2022, 1:35 pm

I agree that Boras will steer Bryant to a long term deal (with opt outs) … thinking SEA … and Bryant should have multiple longer term offers … at least 6 years.

Hard to see the Padres let Musgrove go as a FA (quality, not old, relatively healthy profile, and quality local image) … plus the Padres will NEED a stable SP going forward.

Health is the issue with Clevinger … but signing him (will be about 30) is probably also a Padres objective.

Sign both should likely add 20-25MM to the annual payroll (increase from their 2022 level). Given the other arbs and departures of FA … makes it very hard to sign a long term big money deal now with a bat.

Agree the RP will go and be replaced with league minimum types (Wilson, Kopps, etc.)

Beyond the 3 SP that would go FA after 2022 … Darvish and Snell are FA after 2023 and Darvish will not be resigned (age/money). Snell would depend on signing Musgrove / Clevinger and the development of Gore /Weathers/Morejon.

Bottom line … money matters … and they need to send a bundle to support the SP in 2023 and 2024.

Quote from fenn68 on February 26, 2022, 5:58 am

I understand that many fans get frustrated with prospects (young players) if they don't produce to expectations immediately and just want to trade them for a short term fix. However, development time both in the minors and in the majors is important for most. Teams need to nurture that development time so the roster can have a base of league minimum players allowing payroll space to fund those high paid "stars".

Consider Musgrove who most Padres fans have embraced and see re-signing after this season as a FA. Musgrove did not hit the ML until age 23 with Houston ... for two year, went up/down to the minors and spent time in the bullpen ... ERA in the mid-4s. Dealt to PITT at age 25 and had two so-so years with ERA in the 4s. At age 27 turned the corner with an ERA 3.86 then off to SD at age 28 and delivered an ERA of 3.18.

Not all prospects will follow that development path ... but consider the age. Key near term Padre prospects all have had their development time very limited by the 2020 non-season and injury:

Gore (age 23) with 3 minor league option years before tapping into his 6 ML control years ... that is a lot of time to nurture his projected talent at little cost

Weathers (age 22) with 3 minor league option years and surprisingly 6 ML control years remaining

Morejon (age 22) with 2 minor league option years and 4 ML control years remaining

Paddack (age 26) with 3 minor league option years and 3 ML control years remaining

Don't really see an elite SP prospects coming near term (might get a surprise but can't rely on that).

Then consider Musgrove, Clevinger, Martinez are FA after this season and Darvish / Snell FA after next ... if they are plus pitchers will not have the money to re-sign ALL of them or an equivalent FA with paying the likes of Machado, Tatis, et al or any big bat signing.

For me a case to keep the prospects (not all will pan out) maybe with the exception of Paddack given his ML control is already down to 3 seasons. Also IF (and his is a big IF) the trio of Gore-Weathers-Morejon blossom in the minors during 2022 and they re-sign Musgrove they might consider dealing Darvish next winter (age / cost / one year control) to open some payroll space to supplement the offense post Myers (and maybe Hosmer). New bats for 2023 internally are likely only Abrams and Campusano.

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 26, 2022, 6:22 am

Have not given up on Paddack for sure but am interested to see how he would do in a 7th-8th inning role for a season.

As he is mainly a fastball/changeup type pitcher ala Hoffman he may be much more productive in a 1-2 inning role only IMO.