Quote from fenn68 on February 15, 2022, 3:55 pm

TB has a pretty good team offensively and defensively … so not sure who they would want in return … could be a focus on prospects not MLers. Sounded as though they were thinking of moving one of their OF but would not move two … so adding Margot seems out of the question.

Given the Padres need for a couple of hitters … Meadows may work … but have to consider the TB ask vs any alternatives. Not sure Paddack fits.

Would not over pay in talent … his recent performance is light on AVG/OBP and TB was projecting him as a DH.

If healthy Paddack appears to be in the pen or minors initially (if the other projected starters are healthy and he beats out Weathers, Lamet). With only 3 control years left and if others see him as a SP (a high value slot) he may have more value to the Padres as a trade chip to secure a quality bat than being a long man in the pen. So, no issue with dealing him for a fair return.

Quote from BoosterSD on February 16, 2022, 8:05 am

As I replied to MrP, I get the concern about the BA/OBP, however baseball reference tracks him for a regular season of 162 for a .260 BA, .333 OBP, and 30 HRs and 97 RBIs. I would take that from an OFer projected to make $4.5M. Hell, if we could get that from Hosmer, he would actually be worth his contract!

I get that Paddack is outside of the norm for TAM trade acquisitions, so that's why I suggested a three team deal with WAS, who has/had interest in Paddack as recently as the trade deadline last season. That way, WAS and SD get the MLers they want for right now, and TAM gets 3-4 prospects (1 or 2 from SD and WAS based on quality) they always need to their constant spin off of players when they reach a certain salary level.

As far as his defense is concerned, can not be any worse than that of Profar or Pham, both of which dont have the bat of Meadows. And TAM has both Margot and Kiermaier that they can play in the OF, so yeah I can see them using Meadows bat as a DH.

Quote from fenn68 on February 16, 2022, 1:00 pm

If Preller can work a 3 team deal giving up Paddack and getting Meadows … would make sense to me. Besides considering WASH … would pursue MINN or TEX as the third team … both really need pitching and plan to contend.

Actually could see as Meadows vs Paddack as a deal of equal value (no need to add prospects). Both are around 2.0 WAR types based on recent results … both have similar control and are young with Meadows having a slightly higher salary.

Paddack is a gamble on injury but has the “stuff” to be successful. Also, in his career he has been a bit more successful away for PETCO. Add that across the league … SP is at a premium so he has more “position value”.

Meadows … at worst case … serves the DH role for the Padres and should deliver a 110-120 wRC+ which is nicely above average. Somewhat an oddity in this career … he hit for average better at home (.272 vs. 248) but displayed more HR power away (43HR vs. 27HR) in similar PA. No idea how that translates to PETCO park or the NL WEST.

I would make the deal to fill a giant offense hole for the next few years while giving up a potential insurance policy in 2021 and maybe a starter down the road as he runs out of control.

Quote from fenn68 on February 16, 2022, 1:18 pm

Not as an alternative to Meadows (or any other big bat) but additionally (since I see the season long need for two added ML quality bats) … what about Tony Kemp from OAK?

OAK is in transition and shedding veterans for prospects so Kemp should be available. Not a power option but good AVG/OBP and versatile with experience in the OF and 2B. 30 years old with 2 control years. Less than $3MM salary.

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 16, 2022, 2:59 pm

I’ve liked Kemp since he was with Houston and always thought he should get a chance to play everyday.

I saw a blurb today about him as a possible trade candidate and almost came here to do the same thing Fenn.

I could see him playing plenty in LF and also being an emergency infielder.

 

Quote from fenn68 on February 17, 2022, 4:20 pm

Since the Padres are in a bind with pitchers that cannot be optioned ... some will be traded to get some value vs a release. The positive is that across MLB pitching is an in-demand commodity (some really bad arms out there).

Value is always in relation to the available alternatives to other teams ... so even if Padres fans are not in love with a specific player ... he may have more trade value than we think.

Looked at the unsigned FA pitchers (top 5 by projected WAR):

1. Rodon (29) ... 3.5 WAR ... predicted contract $76MM/4 years ($19MM AAV) ... major injury risk
2. Kershaw (34) ... 2.8 WAR ... $104MM/4 years ($26MM AAV) ... s/b LAD or TEX or retire
3. Kiluchi (31) ... 1.9 WAR ... ???????
4. Greinke (38) ... 1.5 WAR ... $11.5MM/1 year or retire
5. Duffy (33) ... 1.4 WAR ... $21MM/2 years ($10.5MM AAV) ... injury issue

NOT an impressive list for teams needing SP when you consider age, health, and contract commitments. Enter two Padre trade candidates who could yield a 1.5-2.0 WAR (or more):

1. Paddack (26) ... 3 years control with an arbitration level at 2.1MM
2. Lamet (29) ... 2 years control with an arbitration level at 4.6MM

They become a low cost / control bargain for what can be projected as similar production.

Quote from fenn68 on February 17, 2022, 4:35 pm

OK, same idea with RP:

1. Diekman (35) ... 0.5 WAR ... ???????
2. McHugh (35) ... 0.5 WAR ... $5MM/1 year
3. Urena (30) ... 0.4 WAR ... ??????
4. Kelly (34) ... 0.4 WAR ... $14MM/2 years ($7MM AAV)
5. Tepera (34) ... 0.4 WAR ... $4MM/1 year
6. Jansen (34) ... 0.4 WAR ... $24MM/2 years ($12MM AAV)

Again the RP options are questionable, older, and in Jansen / Kelly case expensive.

Enter two Padres:

1. Johnson (30) ... 0.8 WAR ... under contract $3MM/1 year
2. Pagan (30) ... 0.3 WAR ... 2 years control ... arb east at $2.3MM

I could easily see Johnson and even Pagan dealt to a RP needed team for a decent prospect while saving $5.3MM to deploy on other needs. If they also cleared the $6.7MM associated with Paddack / Lamet ... that creates a $12MM pool to add a more significant bat.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on February 24, 2022, 7:49 am

Okay, just read a quick blurb on CBS website, with the talking heads trying to predict where Kris Bryant lands. One said SEA, another said PHI, and the last Mike Axisa stated, head says PHI, heart says SEA, and the little devil on his shoulder says SD.

Money not withstanding, does Bryant fit SDs needs? Axisa says that Bryant in an above average LFer defensively, and his bat is very good. Not LHH (my gripe), but still another high BA/OBP guy capable of 30 HRs and almost a 100 RBIs.

Thoughts????

Quote from fenn68 on February 24, 2022, 9:30 am

Quote from BoosterSD on February 24, 2022, 7:49 am

Okay, just read a quick blurb on CBS website, with the talking heads trying to predict where Kris Bryant lands. One said SEA, another said PHI, and the last Mike Axisa stated, head says PHI, heart says SEA, and the little devil on his shoulder says SD.

Money not withstanding, does Bryant fit SDs needs? Axisa says that Bryant in an above average LFer defensively, and his bat is very good. Not LHH (my gripe), but still another high BA/OBP guy capable of 30 HRs and almost a 100 RBIs.

Thoughts????

Absent the money issue (and that is more about the luxury tax than the actually cash) ... YES he would fill a big need now and going forward.

Padres currently have an OF/DH projection (4 slots) highlighted by Myers and Grisham and forced to use Profar plus ????. Then consider next year Myers is gone and "maybe" Abrams is up for an OF slot ... then nothing for a couple of years until Hassell (note both are your LHH). Padres needs quality hitters NOW and going forward.

MLBTR guess for Bryant (turning 30) is $160MM/6 years ($26.5MM AAV). Going forward even with the growing Tatis annual salary the Padres will unload a lot with the FA next year of Myers, Stammen, Johnson, Suarez, and probably N.Martinez and Clevinger ... plus the drop in Hosmer's salary (if he does not opt out). So starting in 2023 the cash is not going to be an issue even if they also sign Musgrove to a new deal.

Also, since Bryant was traded mid-season there is not draft pick loss attached to the signing (unless there is an issue with having exceed the luxury tax in 2021 ... not sure on that issue).

The TBD is the new CBA penalties for exceeding the luxury tax threshold for a second straight year ... loss of draft picks? 50% overage penalty? Plus might be crimping trade deadline moves that would require adding salary (plus a 50% penalty?).

So Bryant fits even at $26.5MM ... Preller can be potentially be strategic once he knows the threshold to avoid a second year of exceeding the luxury tax by taking the overage Bryant would cause (maybe some extra for wiggle room) and start deleting "marginal" players with contracts such as Johnson, Pagan, Paddack, Lamet, Stammen (note all pitchers) ... not all necessarily but use that pool.

Side: have to wonder if the CBA approval is during March ... ST/season shortened ... will owners be able to get a good deals with some FA once they feel their options of teams / demand is curtailed?