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Off Season Moves and discussion
#401 · February 10, 2022, 6:02 pm
I go with the old baseball adage that "Good pitching beats good hitting" and that defense and speed does play. Making major assumptions that Darvish and Clevinger return to their norms and Musgrove and Snell, particularly Snell, continue to develop positively, we have a rotation that competes virtually every day irrespective of the bats we face. If we have just 3 of 5 win consistently keeping us in the game, then we are possibly talking about winning at around a 60% rate which equates to 97 wins. For that reason, I prefer to hang onto all our starters, further solidify the bullpen with a lower cost experienced closer and see how the 9 man batting order goes with a mixed bag of effective batters. Most teams don't have 9 top hitters anyway.
We have pretty good ideas of what Cronenworth, Machado and Tatis are capable of; we have seen the good and the bad of Hosmer, Myers and Profar; and we have to believe that Grisham and Nola will overcome injuries and be better than last year. Most projections I've seen of Hosmer, Myers, Profar, Grisham and Nola all indicate a better year than last year but not as good as 2020. Will we find another bat for the 9th spot? Will it be Kim or Alfaro or will Abrams or Campusano emerge or will it be someone not currently on the 40 man?
For the latter part of the 2020's, we cannot afford to trade Abrams, Hassell or Campusano because we have to balance the costs of the star players who are pulling down 30 million+ or even those who will be in the 12-15 million range. My prediction is that we get one more bat but not at the cost of one of our top starters nor making further holes in the line-up by ridding ourselves of league average players like Myers and Hosmer; Hosmer has always been overpaid but Myers only starter making 20Million in 2020 and that salary as prorated. I think any of the starting pitchers for depth (Paddack, Gore, Morejon, Weathers, etc.) or some of the relief pitchers (Pagan, Lamet, Baez, etc.) could be traded for a hitter who has potential but has not yet blossomed. Otherwise, the pocketbooks have to be opened up for a short-term add that may resolve itself money-wise by mid-season.
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MrPadre19
#402 · February 11, 2022, 6:51 am
Do think the Padres will spend “a bit” more from where they are now and at the same time trim some of the current payroll.
“Pocketbooks have to be opened up” is probably giving the wrong implication on the Padres spending. Per Cot’s the current projected opening day 26 man:
1. NYM: $255.5 MM
2. LAD: $220.2 MM
3. NYY: $210.7 MM
4. PADRES: $191.9 MM
5. BOS: $178.1 MM
That is already a spending level that we never would have believed a few years ago … and this from a mid-market club up with the big boys of NY, LA, BOST. Note that SD and the LAD were the only teams in 2021 to exceed the luxury tax threshold (and pay a penalty).
The luxury’s tax level out of the new CBA will be a good guideline … should open up some room before hitting that threshold a 2nd consecutive time (and even greater penalties). Padres (per Cot’s) are at $208.4 MM for tax purposes now … so IF the level moves to $220 MM … maybe another $12MM to deploy (note prudence will be to hold back a little for trade deadline adds).
Tie that potential $12MM with the issue with pitching that cannot be sent to the minors forcing some moves will (could) create some additional payroll space … maybe another $12 +/- MM depending on who goes. Also, deals could actually serve to upgrade the bench or the upper minors for some depth to get through the season.
Move some combo of Johnson, Pagan, Lamet, Paddack along with one of Alfaro or Caratini will get the extra payroll space and clear the log jam on the 26 man with pitching and catching.
With maybe something around $20MM to deploy (think the cash will be available) … I could see $10MM on Cruz as the DH (a Preller favorite … and would be only a 1 or 2 year commitment). That still leaves $10MM for filling out LF/bench roles.
Injuries are always a concern but even if they moved Paddack / Lamet (both are their own injury concerns) they sit with Weathers, Gore. Morejon, A Martinez in the minors to call-up for the #5 slot. No problem with the pens … figure a closer (end of game) arm will emerge from Pomeranz, Adams, Garcia, and Suarez … history is on the Padres’ side (Hand, Yates, etc.). More worried about injuries in the OF if they go with Profar - Grisham - Myers, one gets injured and ??????? … especially CF.
Can’t cover all the downside potential given the current roster … so need to add risk in some areas while reducing the greater risks in other areas. Basically for me … move some pitching for position players while leaving some money in reserve for mid-season “adjustments”.
PS: also would not deal any of the long term future from elite prospects for short term gambles.
#403 · February 11, 2022, 7:19 am
A roster design may be a question if as consensus moves to the league having a 14 team (7 per league) playoff structure and the commitment to play the full 162 game slate even it they start day is pushed back (cutting out some off days and adding some double headers).
Can’t win in the playoffs unless you get into the playoffs … so potentially more games in a shorter time puts pressure on in-season depth (especially for the on the bubble teams).
For the Padres … with the starting 5 seeming in place and very little flexibility in optioning pitchers to call up a spot starter … maybe they need to keep a long-man / spot starter in the pen (or commit to bullpen days which tends to burn the pen over the long haul). Keep someone suited to that spot starter role … someone else has to go and that is part of the equation.
In the position players … depth in the playoffs is not so critical but in a compact 162 game slate it could be the difference in the number of wins … and making the playoffs.
Teams don’t make the playoffs on opening day … Padres are not a slam dunk contender even with the expanded structure … so need to build a roster to preform in the 162.
#404 · February 11, 2022, 10:48 am
I was hoping we would have Paddack and Strahm as our long men out of the Pen.
Obviously Strahm is gone but I guess he could be re-signed.
Any news on Paddacks' recovery?
#405 · February 11, 2022, 10:58 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on February 11, 2022, 10:48 amI was hoping we would have Paddack and Strahm as our long men out of the Pen.
Obviously Strahm is gone but I guess he could be re-signed.
Any news on Paddacks' recovery?
Nothing reported except downplaying the seriousness of the 2021 injury long term.
Hopefully he had a well outlined rehab plan (and is following it) since the Padres can be in contact with him during the lockout.
#406 · February 11, 2022, 11:09 am
Given Strahm's knee issue(s) over the past few years and ending the season on the IL ... even at age 30 ... can't imagine there is much a market for signing him (by anyone) to a ML deal.
Padres know him ... and know his medicals ... so if both align favorably could see a move to sign him to a MiL deal. When healthy he is very good ... so some minor league work to regain his sharpness after no real 2021 and to prove his knees are fine.
As it stands the Padres have two LHRP in Pomeranz and Hill ... with probably Weathers and Kerr trying to gain the 3rd LHRP slot. Maybe in the mid-season wings are Castillo and Morejon as pen options but both have to rebound from their own injuries and if in a pennant fight ... maybe need an experienced arm which makes a case for a healthy Strahm.
#407 · February 11, 2022, 11:31 am
Something for the back of your minds and you try to guess who makes the 26 man roster. Padres signed three FA this winter:
Martinez SP ($7mm); Suarez RP ($6MM); and Garcia RP ($3.3MM) ... a pretty fair dollar commitment.
Now if I understand the rules correctly ... Padres CANNOT trade any of them until June 15th. Since they are on contract a DFA may end up with another team claiming them and taking the salary but could have them clear and leave the Padres on the hook.
Given the commitment and restrictions ... coupled with the payroll ... odds are that these pitchers are 3 of the 13 on the opening day staff. Here we are at the mercy of the scouts who thought they are worth the money ... I have no idea.
#408 · February 11, 2022, 12:11 pm
The notion of re-signing Strahm is good but with two bad knees you have to wonder what kind of lower body strength he will be able to muster for both velocity and control. It seems like N. Martinez and Suarez are good gambles but not so sure about Garcia - think he is the most likely to be moved or dropped.
Don't see a future for Norwood, but like the chances for Kerr and Wilson and a return to health of Castillo - these guys, plus Crismatt, may help when our older relief staff goes on the IL for short periods. The move to an extreme fly ball pitcher makes Pagan less likely to be traded, however, maybe Niebla can help reduce that percentage since Pagan is still a decent pitcher if it were not for the fly balls that turn into home runs. In fact, last year it seems that the Padres pitchers gave up an inordinate amount of home runs no thanks to the departing pitching coach. Hopefully, Niebla is more Balsey-like and can actually help our pitchers improve/be more effective like he did Clevinger and many of the young Cleveland pitchers. Same hope for turning Adams into something special. Johnson, Hill and Stammen should be steady but not spectacular but don't know how much we'll get out of Pomeranz. My worry is still no definitive closer and closer by committee usually doesn't work. I look for Preller to address this as soon as the lock-out is over, whether internal or external.
#409 · February 15, 2022, 7:07 am
Seen it twice now on MLBTR where they are pondering whether or not if TAM would be willing to trade Austin Meadows, LHH OF with some power, 27 HRs and over a 100 RBIs. In the last article, they also ponder if SD would trade Paddack. Meadows is projected to earn about $4.5M next season, compared to Paddack's $2.1M, they both have 3 years of control left. That would save TAM about $2.4M.
Now there are a couple of items going against this trade. TAM doesnt usually trade for players entering arb years. $2.4 isnt a lot, even for TAM. And they may have concerns about Paddacks health.
So I wonder, is there a three team trade that could happen. WAS was rumored to be interested in Paddack at the trade deadline last season. So SD gets Meadows, WAS gets Paddack, and between SD and WAS, TAM gets younger, longer controlled prospects. I would not include any of Abrams, Gore, Weathers, Hassel, in this trade. Would be willing to include Campusano though.
#410 · February 15, 2022, 8:12 am
Always been a Meadows fan.
A little concerned that AJ may not be interested due to his lack of on base skills.
Never got on base at a high rate so probably won't going forward.
His best year all around was 2019 and even his OBP was good at .364....
but it seems that may have been an outlier.
Still would love his LH power