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Off Season Moves and discussion
#391 · February 9, 2022, 6:14 am
Looked again at the issues surrounding trading Hosmer this winter … not optimistic given the buyers, alternatives for them combined with the hole created by his departure.
1. Padres have a payroll problem (take that as a given) …. Padres are already looking for a LF and DH … adding a search for a replacement 1B is a practical problem of upgrading three hitters (playoff quality) with limited funds.
2. Looks as though ATL, NYY, CUBS, TEX are looking for 1B. Each have a different level of need, payroll flexibility, and trade assets they are willing to move.
3. Prime alternatives to pursue:
Olson (28), LHH, 146 wRC+ … 2 years control in arbitration (ext. $12MM - $18MM). Oakland does not have to trade him now and are asking for a mega package likely including an overall Top 30 plus another Top 100 prospect. Not sure any of the teams really have that level to trade plus … it is only for 2 years then Olson as a FA at age 30 will be seeking a deal beyond Freeman … so good chance he is two years and gone.
Freeman (32), LHH, 135 wRC+ … MLBTR estimates $180MM/6 years ($30MM AAV) and reports have him seeking a 7th year. That is a long term commitment for someone who will be in his late 30s near the end of the deal.
Rizzo (32), LHH, 112 wRC+ … MLBTR estimates $45MM/3 years ($15MM AAV). His production has been dropping and has rejected a larger offer from the Cubs.
Schwarber (29), LHH, 145 wRC+ … MLBTR estimates $70MM/4 years ($17.5MM AAV). Really more a DH than 1B (bad defensively) but has to be considered an alternative.
Voit (32), RHH, 111 wRC+ … 3 years controlled in arbitration (est. $5.4MM). Note that the NYY have been trying to trade him since last season … oft injured … more a DH … so not a good sign if you want a regular 1B.
Bryant (30). RHH, 123 wRC+ … MLBTR estimates $160MM/6 years ($26.5 AAV). I guess a team could put him at 1B although more value in the OF or 3B.
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Hosmer (32) LHH, 102 wRC+ … $59MM/4 years (potential opt out after 2022)($14.75MM AAV). Clearly the lest desirable alternative based on production but “cost / commitment” remaining on his contract looks to be the least challenging to cover by teams.
If any of the buying teams does not want to go big on the better options (or their targets have signed elsewhere) Hosmer may look better than their internal alternatives. If the Padres buy down the contract (maybe to $8MM AAV) and add a decent prospect possible he could be moved. Padres’ problem: not really enough freed up payroll space to upgrade 1B … and DH/LF.
#392 · February 9, 2022, 6:26 am
Moving Hosmer is the key....we could use Crone and/or Myers for a season if need be.
#393 · February 9, 2022, 8:32 am
Read a blurb about Olson today on MLBTR, and TEX interests in acquiring him. The TEX reporter mentioned that it could build a package around current ML player Nathaniel Lowe, a top level prospect, and two more additional mid tier prospects.
So in my mind, that would be a Crone, Abrams, and two additional MiL mid tier prospects. I dont think that SD would include Crone, too important to SD current success IMO. So would OAK be willing to take Paddack, Abrams, and 3 mid level prospects? Is that too much for SD to pay for possibly the best 1B in baseball?
#394 · February 9, 2022, 8:35 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on February 9, 2022, 6:26 amMoving Hosmer is the key....we could use Crone and/or Myers for a season if need be.
I guess a lot of the decision of moving Hosmer (and no expectation of a ML piece in return) is the Padres confidence in Profar and Kim being able to step up and handle at least one (if not two) of the then open offensive spots in the line-up as a "regular" versus "utility sub" ... after them Caratini / Alfaro are somewhat limited as defensive options. That is basically four below average hitters based on history.
Add to that their confidence in top prospects Campusano / Abrams being ML ready offensively ... a the look-see with Mazara. None have proven average ML offense.
Move Hosmer and his contract will cost them their prospects and only save $20MM in 2022 ... not enough to upgrade three offensive slots with FA considering the prospects are dealt. Same is true with moving Myers (but will cost less in prospects my guess).
If the Padres want to improve the overall 26 man roster while making sure they have some bodies lined-up up for 2023 ... a trade of Darvish makes the most sense since very good chance multiple teams would actually want him (and his $20 contract). Padres could then deploy that $20MM to upgrade offense without depleting Abrams or Campusano ... not counting the player received in return.
Padres would still be going with Musgrove, Snell, Clevinger, N. Martinez, Paddack, Weathers, Lamet, and the ever hopefully Gore to sort out a starting 5. Ideal ... no ... but more depth to be successful than having to rely on Profar, Kim, Alfaro, Caratini getting regular reps in two of the offensive line-up slots.
#395 · February 9, 2022, 9:09 am
Quote from BoosterSD on February 9, 2022, 8:32 amRead a blurb about Olson today on MLBTR, and TEX interests in acquiring him. The TEX reporter mentioned that it could build a package around current ML player Nathaniel Lowe, a top level prospect, and two more additional mid tier prospects.
So in my mind, that would be a Crone, Abrams, and two additional MiL mid tier prospects. I dont think that SD would include Crone, too important to SD current success IMO. So would OAK be willing to take Paddack, Abrams, and 3 mid level prospects? Is that too much for SD to pay for possibly the best 1B in baseball?
The Texas idea is more geared to what Texas would (could) offer ... not what OAK would take.
For the Padres, can't see moving Cronenworth at league minimum (4 years control) and no immediate replacement (lest it be Kim or Profar) for a $12MM dollar man (controlled for only 2 years) given their budget issues. I assume Hosmer becomes the DH?
Is a line-up with Olson (1B), Hosmer (DH), Kim (2B), and Profar (LF) substantially better than a line-up of Hosmer (1B), Alfaro/Caratini/Kim (DH), Cronenworth (2B), and Profar (LF)? This at the expense of and elite prospect (controlled for 6 years) and the impact of lost draft pick / international money having exceeded the luxury threshold in 2021.
Olson is outstanding (greater than Cronenworth) but likely only 2 years control (total about $30MM) vs. Cronenworth at 4 years control at maybe total $20MM while losing prospects does not seem justifiable ... given Olson would be no lock in securing the playoffs given the other holes on the 26 man.
I would more likely take this "excess" $12MM and add via FA while preserving the prospects ... Abrams and Campusano likely will be needed in 2023 as Myers departs.
I guess I am more focused on the major offensive "holes" and adding Olson (or any 1B type) seems less valuable than adding OF/INF types for versatility allowing rotation through the DH role. Plus have no real issue with Cronenworth to 1B ... especially if Abrams emerges as the 2B by 2023.
#396 · February 9, 2022, 11:52 am
Put me squarely in the “don’t trade Darvish” Camp.
First of all I think he will have a good season….he will have a full (maybe longer) off season to adapt to the No sticky stuff rule.
Plus,after last year, I don’t want to trade any pitching…..unless it’s Paddack or another #5 type in a deal that gets us improved offense.
Otherwise….keep our top 4 Starters and pray they stay healthy.
#397 · February 9, 2022, 12:29 pm
Quote from fenn68 on February 9, 2022, 9:09 amQuote from BoosterSD on February 9, 2022, 8:32 amRead a blurb about Olson today on MLBTR, and TEX interests in acquiring him. The TEX reporter mentioned that it could build a package around current ML player Nathaniel Lowe, a top level prospect, and two more additional mid tier prospects.
So in my mind, that would be a Crone, Abrams, and two additional MiL mid tier prospects. I dont think that SD would include Crone, too important to SD current success IMO. So would OAK be willing to take Paddack, Abrams, and 3 mid level prospects? Is that too much for SD to pay for possibly the best 1B in baseball?
The Texas idea is more geared to what Texas would (could) offer ... not what OAK would take.
For the Padres, can't see moving Cronenworth at league minimum (4 years control) and no immediate replacement (lest it be Kim or Profar) for a $12MM dollar man (controlled for only 2 years) given their budget issues. I assume Hosmer becomes the DH?
I guess I am more focused on the major offensive "holes" and adding Olson (or any 1B type) seems less valuable than adding OF/INF types for versatility allowing rotation through the DH role. Plus have no real issue with Cronenworth to 1B ... especially if Abrams emerges as the 2B by 2023.
Well, you missed the entire point of my original post, there is NO WAY I trade Crone. He is just too valuable and cheap for SD to trade away. Which is why I suggested Paddack, similar in ML service time as Lowe, just a pitcher instead of a player. OAK, after their presumed fire sale 2022, will need both. And I know that Paddack is coming off an injury, which is why I suggested added an additional mid tier prospect.
Now onto Crone and Abrams. I am tired of SD displacing All Stars for kids that havent proven anything yet. Right now, SD has All Stars at 3 positions, 3B, SS, and 2B. Dont move any of them, leave them be where they are at!!
Abrams, if he can not switch to CF, yes I would move Grisham to RF if Abrams is better defensively because I still think Grisham has issues in CF, then Abrams is of no use to the ML team. Plus, he hasnt proved anything yet. We are close. Get ML players and win a world series!
Finally, Crone at 1B. One, he is an all star 2B, leave him there. Two, his bat is nice, and his 1B defense would be better than Hosmer, but his bat does not play at 1B IMO. Not enough RBI production. Crone hit 9 more HRs than Hosmer last season and only drove in 6 more runs than Hosmer. We need a real 1B bat and real LH run production.....Olson! Then it wont matter who is playing LF.
#398 · February 9, 2022, 12:31 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on February 9, 2022, 11:52 amPut me squarely in the “don’t trade Darvish” Camp.
First of all I think he will have a good season….he will have a full (maybe longer) off season to adapt to the No sticky stuff rule.
Plus,after last year, I don’t want to trade any pitching…..unless it’s Paddack or another #5 type in a deal that gets us improved offense.
Otherwise….keep our top 4 Starters and pray they stay healthy.
I agree Mr. P. no way we can trade any of our proven ML SP. Paddack is not proven what he can do yet IMO. After watching what SD had to roll out in September last year, we should be looking at adding another SP or two IMO.
#399 · February 9, 2022, 1:38 pm
I would expect that Cronenworth stays put at 2B and (if not traded) Abrams is the CF either late 2022 or 2023 with Grisham in RF. Of course at the same time Myers is gone in 2023 creating another hole in the OF. So, a strong reason to NOT trade Abrams. Padres really have no OF quality even for 2022 let alone going forward.
A case NOT to trade Darvish (same goes for Snell) … beyond quality … is that after this season Musgrove, Clevinger, and Martinez are all FA and resigning one will cost a lot … replacing all three is hard.
No one wants Hosmer or Myers unless the Padres add a decent prospect (and eat some contract) … so not sure the upside of going that route since they would have to replace them with ????
So without clearing any significant payroll … how can they add a quality player who will have a significant contract?
I expect that Paddack has some trade value plus prospects Campusano, Hassell, Weathers, and Gore and all are low cost / long control. Will (should) the Padres use those in deals? Deals where the return is also low cost / long control?
Also, IF the Padres go pitching first for 2022 … maybe the position player fill does not have to an “elite” bat but a strong defender with a legit bat?
Going with the last two thoughts … might look into Mullins (BALT), LHH OF with 4 control years at league minimum (risk that 2021 was a one-off). He was an All-star level but pretty sure there are others “very good” upgrade options with greater than 3 years control that could be had.
The bar for upgrades is low: Profar, Kim, Alfaro, Caratini then the current options get worse. With the payroll limit … stick with strong SP (and depth) and rely on Tatis - Machado - Cronenworth to carry the offense then Nola - Hosmer - Myers - Grisham create some average stability then get SOMETHING better out of the others than 20-25% below average.
Add Mullins (for Gore, Hassell, a second tier prospect) insert him in the OF … hold on the rest of the line-up and go with the 9th line-up slot as rotation using the others. If the pitching works … that should work into the playoffs.
Preller has a real problem being hamstrung with the payroll and Myers / Hosmer over priced for mediocre performance … plus a stated objective to produce a winner now and in following years. Good luck.
#400 · February 9, 2022, 1:52 pm
Oddly the Padres have to work on deleting some pitching since the 26 man roster has 15 pitchers that can’t be optioned (or will not be optioned). Only 13 make opening day and baring injuries … Guerra and Norwood are DFA.
The starting 5: Darvish; Musgrove; Snell; Clevinger; and N. Martinez creates a situation where Paddack, Lamet, and Weathers have to be optioned or in the Pen.
However only 8 in the pen and can’t option Stammen, Johnson, Suarez, Garcia, Pomeranz, Pagan (can but will not), Hill (can but will not), and Adams. So that is 8. Again sending Paddack, Lamet, Weathers to the minors.
Preller has to get max value out of some of these arms and be aggressive in making deals early after the new CBA and not wait to just DFA excess. Pitching is needed in the league … maybe not “elite” returns but more useful players for the Padres can be had.