Quote from fenn68 on January 26, 2022, 6:22 am

If there is a worry about health / performance of the pitching at least there is some level of depth options. However, with that same thought … offense may move to life support out of the blocks.

Health concerns: Tatis; Nola; Myers; and Grisham all have sketchy health histories.

To that end and assuming a DH … Padres need 9 starters for offense and as it is Profar is the LF and the 9th hitter comes from Alfaro, Caratini; Kim; and maybe Mazara. That is 20% of the starters well below average offensively (maybe 20—30% below).

Then really worry about injuries in the “first seven” hitters. Even one gets injured that sends them into some really weak territory. If injury to Tatis, Cronenworth, or Machado … Kim is the first up and he did not show up offensively. If injury is to Grisham, Myers, or Profar … Mazara or Aflaro to the OF?

Bottomline for me … mildly concerned about SP but really worried about offense at the 9 starter level and really, really worried about depth.

Can’t fix (protect) every potential hole … so where do they make the best gamble?

Quote from BoosterSD on January 26, 2022, 10:06 am

In the latest blurb from MLBTR, it suggests that when the lock out is over, Suzuki will travel to the States to begin negotiations with MLB teams. Nikkan’s report suggests that the Padres, Cubs, Mariners and Giants are “expected” to be among the finalists for Suzuki once negotiations resume. Noting that Suzuki might have a desire to Spring Train in AZ over FL.

I know he is RHH, but depending on the contract that he is demanding, could he be our next RFer? Slide Myers over to LF. According to this latest blurb, he is average to above average defender, and the best product to come out of Japan since Otani.

Quote from fenn68 on January 26, 2022, 10:31 am

Suzuki ... maybe the best since Otani but current the next best is not very productive ... so a low bar for comparison. One for the Padre international scouts and if he will command what MLBTR is projecting ... $55MM/5 years ($11MM) AAV plus the payment to his former club ... better be right and not get the next Kim.

Padres could handle that level with the minimum expected in the new CBA for luxury tax ... just is he the guy? Of course the other options in the FA/trade market may end up costing more with not guarantee of better success.

Playing on the West Coast / training in AZ is a lure and maybe getting on a team with Darvish might help him acclimate.

Quote from fenn68 on January 26, 2022, 10:46 am

An old speculation is resurfacing that unites the Padres with Nelson Cruz. Apparently the Padres wanted Cruz at the trade deadline (even without the DH) but were out bid by TB. Reports are that Cruz would like to play for the Padres.

At 41 still a productive hitter by most analytics and with the DH in the NL a logical fit (even if a RHH). Probably in the $10-12MM range for 1 or 2 years. IF the Padres believe he will hold up, fills a need in 2022 and even a bigger need in 2023 with Myers gone.

Part of the trade deadline report was that the Padres were considering him ... if needed ... as a 1B/2B option ... seems a long shot given his reputation defensively but?

The other link was Cruz's relationship with Preller from the Texas days (see Profar, Mazara, Alfaro). Cruz has a stellar reputation as a leader in the clubhouse ... especially for the Latin players.

With a combo of the new luxury tax threshold going up to ??? and some strategic moving of current contracts probably out of the pen ... might fit both Suzuki and Cruz (yes, unfortunately both RHH ... but good hitters) to fill the 8th and 9th starters. Don't see the issue being money for the payroll ... just the penalties linked to exceeding the  luxury tax threshold ... so with some luck and creativity might get $20-22 boost for two players and not lose any prospects.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 26, 2022, 12:00 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 26, 2022, 10:31 am

Suzuki ... maybe the best since Otani but current the next best is not very productive ... so a low bar for comparison. One for the Padre international scouts and if he will command what MLBTR is projecting ... $55MM/5 years ($11MM) AAV plus the payment to his former club ... better be right and not get the next Kim.

Padres could handle that level with the minimum expected in the new CBA for luxury tax ... just is he the guy? Of course the other options in the FA/trade market may end up costing more with not guarantee of better success.

Playing on the West Coast / training in AZ is a lure and maybe getting on a team with Darvish might help him acclimate.

I was thinking the same thing with Darvish.

I think its hard to compare Suzuki and Kim, there is a big difference in talent from the KBO to the NBL. So not as concerned with the transition as with Kim IMO.

Might be worth the gamble with no draft lost and no prospects lost in a trade scenario.

Agree, the OF free agent options are not overly appealing, with the exception of maybe Cory Dickerson. He may come cheap, so both maybe?

 

Quote from BoosterSD on January 26, 2022, 12:02 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 26, 2022, 10:46 am

An old speculation is resurfacing that unites the Padres with Nelson Cruz. Apparently the Padres wanted Cruz at the trade deadline (even without the DH) but were out bid by TB. Reports are that Cruz would like to play for the Padres.

At 41 still a productive hitter by most analytics and with the DH in the NL a logical fit (even if a RHH). Probably in the $10-12MM range for 1 or 2 years. IF the Padres believe he will hold up, fills a need in 2022 and even a bigger need in 2023 with Myers gone.

Part of the trade deadline report was that the Padres were considering him ... if needed ... as a 1B/2B option ... seems a long shot given his reputation defensively but?

The other link was Cruz's relationship with Preller from the Texas days (see Profar, Mazara, Alfaro). Cruz has a stellar reputation as a leader in the clubhouse ... especially for the Latin players.

With a combo of the new luxury tax threshold going up to ??? and some strategic moving of current contracts probably out of the pen ... might fit both Suzuki and Cruz (yes, unfortunately both RHH ... but good hitters) to fill the 8th and 9th starters. Don't see the issue being money for the payroll ... just the penalties linked to exceeding the  luxury tax threshold ... so with some luck and creativity might get $20-22 boost for two players and not lose any prospects.

I get the appeal of Cruz for the reasons you state. Big bat, great clubhouse guy.

Just dont see the reality of him being in the field though. But if the bat and the clubhouse gel of him being there with Manny and Tatis, it could be a good signing.

Quote from fenn68 on January 27, 2022, 4:29 pm

A bit more on Suzuki per Dylan Hernandez (LA Times):

1. From a scout that Hernandez holds in high regard … Suzuki is being compared to A.J.Pollack … maybe a .280 hitter with 20-25 HR and good defense / strong arm. Apparently a very good all around athlete.

2. Suzuki and Darvish are represented by the same agency … and to that end their agency has gotten them together (along with another Japanese player from the ML) to discuss the various “differences” in the MLB vs. Japan and the various team organizations. Reviewing the “zoom” meetings done prior to the lockout.

3. Zero sense of who he will sign with … apparently a lot of teams are “interested” but no indication from his side.

4. Sounds as though his wife is a key part of the decision … plus being in a city that possesses a strong Japanese community (especially food).

5. This was Dylan speculating … but part of what Darvish may be consulting him on is the difference of how teams utilize players … and he needs to be careful in his choice to have the best assurance of a regular full time playing slot.

Apparently he is on his way to the US and will jump right into the final face to face meetings as soon as CBA is signed … sound as though he is eager. I guess if early, his agency may be conducting a tour of prospective cities to help him make the call.

We will see.

Quote from Randy Manese on January 27, 2022, 5:22 pm

It seems like Suzuki is the RH version of Grisham but with a better hit tool.  I believe the Padres thought when they swapped Luis Urias for Grisham, the two would eventually perform equally well at their respective positions and the Padres had far more prospects at middle infield than CF.  Well, Urias' 2021 was far superior to Grisham's, however, at the beginning of 2021 until early July, Grisham was performing very well.  Injuries greatly impacted his bottom line and while he may never hit for as high an average as Urias (or Suzuki) if he raises his his HR and SB output to the mid-20's and keeps his OBP around 350 with better than average defense in CF, then we have nailed down an everyday contributor to the Padres' line-up like Suzuki would be if we could sign him.  Essentially, this is the kind offense we hoped Pham had left in him, but his eye issues, other injuries and poor defense made that portion of the trade not as good as it could have been - Cronenworth turned out to be the jewel of that trade, a rare miss by the Rays' evaluators.

Quote from Personal Fable on January 30, 2022, 12:25 pm

Nabbing a CFer for a 2B is a no brainer if you expect equal offensive output. The problem with Grisham is a very noticeable hole in his swing worse than Urias needing time to adjust to higher velocity. If they don't revamp his load to where he's not diving he'll continue to be a ground out to 2B guy until he's out of the league. A guy his size should not have a bottom 40% exit velo and 20% Xslg.