Quote from fenn68 on January 24, 2022, 6:01 am

Time for another self generated trade speculation for Hosmer ... nothing else to do. Trade partner ... NYY.

NYY are sitting with a forecasted payroll at $214MM (not too big for the NYY) and a Luxury Tax level of $201MM (so some room even before the new CBA level) ... so could add payroll.

NYY are looking for a LHH 1B (and move on from the oft injured Voit) since they have only Gallo and Hicks from the left side in a ballpark that loves LHH. They have not seemed to be all that interested in Rizzo (est. $45MM/3 years) and Freeman is flat out expensive (est. $180MM/6 years .. $30MM AAV).

Might the right deal have them interested in Hosmer?

SD could have two objectives ... first, lower the payroll used on Hosmer to deploy elsewhere and longer term avoid Hosmer getting the 10/5 no trade rights after 2022.

So, how about a straight up swap of Hosmer ($20MM in 2022) for Zach Britton ($14MM in $2022) and a FA after the season ... which he will miss since he had elbow surgery at the end of 2021. NYY gets a "productive" 2022 player in a position they want (at the cost of potentially 3 additional years at $39MM) while dropping $14MM of "dead money" so only an incremental $6MM cost in 2022. Would that be strategic for them to contend in the AL East. SD eliminates the potential future cost of Hosmer ... but creates another hole at 1B with only $6MM to backfill.

Now keep in mind the SD catching glut ... Nola - Alfaro - Caratini - Campusano could emerge at 1B ... the potential emergence of Abrams for 2B with Cronenworth to 1B ... the repositioning of Myers to 1B and focusing add in the OF ... or another trade for a lower cost 1B using the "excess" pitching that will have to be dealt at some point.

A variation on the theme ... Hosmer for Britton and Voit (about $6MM) making the money a push in 2022. NYY are still more productive in 2022 with the same payroll (with taking on the future cost) and the Padres are basically just shedding the future costs and gambling that RHH Voit can stay heathy (note Voit could end up DH if the Padres find a replacement 1B).

No prospects are gained or lost ... that is good.

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 24, 2022, 6:58 am

On a different trade track to find a "longer term" bat ... looking at MINN as a trade partner.

First MINN apparently still thinks they can contend with CWS (2021 being an anomaly) and have a relatively low payroll so can take on some payroll. Their SP is a disaster ... no projected starters that pitching more than 100 innings and none had an ERA under 4.00 (two were over 6.00). The key FA arms have been signed. Could SD dangle some SP for offense (potential)?

What might MINN be willing to deal:

1. Kepler (29), LHH, 1.9 WAR (95 wRC+) ... 3 control years ($6.8MM - 8.5MM - $10MM club option)
2. Kiriloff (24) LHH, 0.3 WAR (93 wRC+) .... 6 control years (minimum)
3. Larnach (24) LHH, 0.2 WAR (89 wRC+) ... 6 control years (minimum)

All three would vault to the #8 best wRC+ on the Padres and with Kiriloff and Larnach both were Top 100 prospects with major upside offensively.

I would add Austin Martin to the discussion ... 22 year old RHH (OF/INF) who in his 1st minor league season he was in AA and had a slash line of 270/414/381 for 2021. The 5th pick in the 2020 draft by TORONTO and was part of a mid-season 2021 deal (so no great tie to the MINN FO). COULD make the jump to the ML in 2022.

MINN would only take a SP they were confident will be a SP in 2022 that should eat innings and "hopefully" was at least about a 4.00 ERA (hopefully better). They may deal Kepler for a bit more of a "gamble" but the upside / low cost options will probably require a more certain option.

Who would he Padres offer ... for which option? Who would the TWINS offer ... for which Padre pitcher?

I would consider going big and dangle Darvish (2 years) / Caratini (2 years) / Knehr or A.Martinez at about $20MM/year for Kepler and Martin. May need some other marginal pieces to make everyone happy. Other than the players, Padres make some payroll space (about a net $13MM).

Just how desperate is MINN to fix their SP?

Quote from BoosterSD on January 24, 2022, 8:35 am

Right off the bat, I am not overly excited about Martin, seems like a RHH version of two players that we already have in Abrams and Hassell. How many small power, good average, very good OBP guys do we need?

I would look to sweeten the deal and get Kepler and then either Larnach or Kiriloff, an OFer with some power.

Maybe Darvish, Caratini, Knehr, and Paddock for Kepler and Kiriloff?

Quote from fenn68 on January 24, 2022, 10:32 am

Quote from BoosterSD on January 24, 2022, 8:35 am

Right off the bat, I am not overly excited about Martin, seems like a RHH version of two players that we already have in Abrams and Hassell. How many small power, good average, very good OBP guys do we need?

I would look to sweeten the deal and get Kepler and then either Larnach or Kiriloff, an OFer with some power.

Maybe Darvish, Caratini, Knehr, and Paddock for Kepler and Kiriloff?

Doubt MINN would deal TWO of their projected starters and Kepler, Kiriloff, and Larnach are projected starters and Kepler is the one most likely they would prefer to move. Note that I do like either one if Preller could get them included.

What Martin provides is a RHH option vs Abrams / Hassell both LHH plus Hassell may not be around until 2024 while Martin may arrive in 2022 and clearly by 2023. I sort of go with a guy that looks like a top hitter and sort out the positions / overlaps later. Also gives some options with Abrams (or actually Martin who is also an INF) to go to 2B shifting Cronenworth to 1B post Hosmer.

Agree would keep an eye on the power profile but ... thinking 2023 still have Machado and Tatis at the high level and Cronenworth and Kepler (maybe Grisham) in the 20 HR zone. Just a question of quality alternatives in play, not sure would reaching for power (but maybe compromising defense / OBP). I would have to ID the alternative in play.

=======

side: not sure the trade value of Paddack until he demonstrates his arm issue from late last year is in the past ... so maybe he needs some ST/early season outings before he can be moved (for value).

That may be hinged on how long ST is given the need to sign a new CBA. Will teams entertain more trades in late April / early May when they see their roster perform and their trade targets preform? Clearly will be an issue with players (especially pitchers) with health concerns.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on January 25, 2022, 8:31 am

Im still thinking the Padres biggest need is a power LHH bat. The problem is that we have two similar bats projected in the 2022 line up in both LF and 1B with Hosmer and Profar.

So if you upgrade 1B with either Matt Olson or Freddy Freeman (not my money so I dont care about CBT), then you can live with Profar's bat in LF. And Hosmer can rot on the bench and DH against RHSPs.

If you think SD wants to avoid CBT issues, then upgrade LF and live with Hosmer's bat at 1B. Then Profar can super sub and you can use the big bats at DH while Profar/Kim give the a day off from the field. Problem is, that I dont know if Kepler is a big enough upgrade over Profar? And not sure what a better option is.....?

I like Crones bat, still think its not enough at 1B, I would leave him where he is at, 2B.

So IMO, go get Olson or Freeman.

Quote from fenn68 on January 25, 2022, 11:01 am

Given Freeman's age not sure his demand of $180MM/6 years ($30MM AAV) interests any team ... apparently that 6th year is the stumbling block with Atlanta. Add that he carries a QO that will cost the Padres their 2nd draft pick, international signing money, and incur dollar penalties. Apparently Boston, NYY, Toronto are "interested" in him besides ATL ... no idea on their cost limits.

Olson could be interesting at 2 years and a reasonable cost ... but the prospect cost to get him will be high. Saw a report that Oakland and Seattle were talking with Oakland wanting MLBPipeline's #11 prospect overall as the headline in the deal. So translating that to SD ... Abrams. Olson is low cost vs the FA ... so they can really wait it out to see were Freeman and Rizzo land or a team avoid the FA cost (dollars) for prospect cost.

I guess Rizzo is a possibility (looking for $60MM/3 years) ... given the circumstances and his age (32) and diminished performance (not bad but not up to his past ... 1.6 WAR in 2021) might get him for 2 years around $30MM. He still as some LH power. Basically about the same cost/control as Olson without giving up an elite prospect. Not as good but good enough? Again who might be in on Rizzo after Freeman makes his move.

ATL and NYY seem to be in the most need to make a move for a 1B ... if one makes the Olson deal and the other spends for Freeman ... leaves Rizzo out there for a "less needy" BOST or TORONTO ... and maybe SD.

Freeman is the key and if he makes a surprise move (e.g. Toronto ... who as lots of money) .... NYY, BOST, and ATL could be scrambling for Rizzo and Olson. The DH in the NL might make Rizzo a candidate to return to the CUBS. Might all that open a Hosmer trade opportunity?

 

Quote from BoosterSD on January 25, 2022, 11:09 am

I agree, Freeman is going to set the market.

If NYY gets left out in the cold, could a deal around Hosmer and Campusano make sense? I know NYY is looking for a stop gap at SS, would they be interested in Kim? Hosmer, Campusano, and Kim some money for Gallo who might have fallen out of favor in NY?

Quote from fenn68 on January 25, 2022, 12:17 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on January 25, 2022, 11:09 am

I agree, Freeman is going to set the market.

If NYY gets left out in the cold, could a deal around Hosmer and Campusano make sense? I know NYY is looking for a stop gap at SS, would they be interested in Kim? Hosmer, Campusano, and Kim some money for Gallo who might have fallen out of favor in NY?

If the dominoes fell right … could see the NYY taking a package of Hosmer and Campusano (they like offense minded catchers and maybe are worn out on Sanchez). That probably for a package of prospects … I would be OK with that if the Padres did not have to eat any (much) salary. Use the freed up money for a FA.

NYY are pushing for a LHH 1B because that is a “hole” and they are very short of LHH (even with Gallo) in a park that cries for LHH power. Doubt they deal Gallo. They may try to push Voit as part of the return. RHH who is usually injured BUT can hit some and could fit at 1B/DH as depth.

Quote from Randy Manese on January 25, 2022, 7:13 pm

Recently saw an article in which the Padres were not even in the top 10 of MLB teams.  I then did some research of 9 pre-season projection data sites for what could be our prospective pitching staff and it is probably here that the uncertainty of what this team could be lies.  Up and down the pitching staff, there are questions as to durability, return from injuries, fading finish, high HR rate, lack of an identifiable closer, effectiveness of imports from Japan, etc.   For example, Pomeranz is projected to throw less than 40 innings while Lamet tops out a 68 IP and moves to the pen as a long man.  Is Paddack healthy and was his finish before injury sustainable?  When will Morejon be ready to contribute?  Will the dibilitating injuries to Darvish carry over in the same manner to 2022?  Which Snell is the real Snell?  Can Musgrove carry a good first half into a better second half than he had in 2021?

These and many other questions loom large in the Padres forecast for 2022 and why the lock-out/CBA negotiations are particularly tough on getting all of our pitchers on track.  Heard great things about Niebla but with a shortened spring training, I expect it will be a work in progress and hopefully by the end of the first 1/3 of the season, we will have many of these questions answered in the positive.   It could be very good or very bad but with the overwhelming number of injuries we had last year, have to think that this is the year we start to come back into dominance on the mound.  Encouraged to see that most projections have Clevinger starting 21 games and just hope that a a healthy Paddack and Nick Martinez support the top four of Musgove, Darvish, Snell and Clevinger.  If so and they are relatively healthy, looks like we should have at least 145 of 162 games covered.   Given the expected growth of Gore, A Martinez, Weathers and Morejon under Niebla we should be able to squeeze out a competitive starting staff every day and not have to add guys like Arietta or Velaquez.  Time will tell.  Let's get that CBA signed!