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Off Season Moves and discussion

#351 · January 18, 2022, 5:01 am

The Padres only have 13 position players on the 40 man (will need 13 on the 26 man) and really only one potential non-roster known commodity to bump in ... Mazara. Making a case for the need for multiple upgrades in position players looked at last seasons wRC+ by player:

Presumed core starters (7): Tatis (156); Machado (122); Cronenworth (116); Myers (109); Grisham (103); Hosmer (102); and Nola (100). All at least average.

The problem comes with filling LF/DH/bench with an additional 6. What the Padres have: Profar (85); Alfaro (73); Caratini (72); Kim (70); Mazara (64); Campusano (-13). (note included Mazara and put Rosario in the minors ... AA player with zero ML time). The group collective is roughly 30% below average ... two will have to be starters and realistically the others will be needed to cover the inevitable injuries or platoon considerations. So, at some point expect 1/3rd of the line-up being 30% below average on offense. That is not a winning roster mix.

I ... at a minimum ... would look adding two (maybe three) position players who push the wRC+ 90-100 range AND can play field positions acceptably (real INF/OF). To make room ... pass on Mazara and send Campusano to AAA. IF can find a third upgrade, I would move on from either Caratini or Alfaro. Sure would like better production but depth may be more critical than a 10-20% advantage in only one slot.

#352 · January 18, 2022, 8:22 am

So could SD try and force Hosmers hand to opt out after this season by getting really crazy and sign Freddy Freeman? Yes, he is another estimated $30M per season contract, but could show Hosmer that he is not the answer anymore. Yes, that would make Hosmer a very expensive DH option against RHP only, but perhaps he would be motivated to opt out after this season??

#353 · January 18, 2022, 8:25 am

On a more serious option, I think SD should look at signing Eddie Rosario. LHH OFer that MLBTR expects to sign for 2 years for a total of $15M. Yes, he is not very good in LF however has had a fairly productive bat except for his time in CLE last season. And really, would his defense in LF be any worse than that of Castellanos or Schwarber? You could always look to put Profar in defensively in the late innings with a tight lead.

#354 · January 18, 2022, 9:31 am

Quote from BoosterSD on January 18, 2022, 8:25 am

On a more serious option, I think SD should look at signing Eddie Rosario. LHH OFer that MLBTR expects to sign for 2 years for a total of $15M. Yes, he is not very good in LF however has had a fairly productive bat except for his time in CLE last season. And really, would his defense in LF be any worse than that of Castellanos or Schwarber? You could always look to put Profar in defensively in the late innings with a tight lead.

:Yeh, he has been on my radar ... maybe LF but DH would also work.

If my thought of player FA panic with a shorten signing period to find a home comes true ... maybe a one year deal or a lower 2 year deal (or a club friendly option).

#355 · January 18, 2022, 9:51 am

Quote from BoosterSD on January 18, 2022, 8:22 am

So could SD try and force Hosmers hand to opt out after this season by getting really crazy and sign Freddy Freeman? Yes, he is another estimated $30M per season contract, but could show Hosmer that he is not the answer anymore. Yes, that would make Hosmer a very expensive DH option against RHP only, but perhaps he would be motivated to opt out after this season??

I still think Hosmer does opt out but if he does not he is down to $13MM/year for 3 years and that is not obscene for his 100-110 wRC+ in this era. He does gain 10/5 no trade rights but if at any point he wants to move on he can (and would) waive those rights. Padres would still be able to move him but only have to pay down a small portion of his contract. Sort of suggests that the Padres should not do anything over the top to move Hosmer now given the shortage of hitters in place for 2022 and the specter of Myers going after the season.

Most probable for 2022 the Padres would have to eat half ($10MM) and give up a prospect expecting no significant return. Then they are down another hitter with only $10MM to deploy to come to the same spot. I guess the additional pay down of 2023-25 would be contingent on his not opting out.

Would I like to move on from Hosmer ... yes BUT a real risk that would put the 2022 Padres in a worse competitive position and, depending on the prospect that would accompany him, a worse 2023 forward. Hitters are getting harder to find ... Padres already need two ... not a lot coming soon in-house (Abrams, Capusano then a gap). Track record on signing FA not great.

#356 · January 18, 2022, 11:34 am

Quote from BoosterSD on January 18, 2022, 11:34 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 18, 2022, 9:51 am

Quote from BoosterSD on January 18, 2022, 8:22 am

So could SD try and force Hosmers hand to opt out after this season by getting really crazy and sign Freddy Freeman? Yes, he is another estimated $30M per season contract, but could show Hosmer that he is not the answer anymore. Yes, that would make Hosmer a very expensive DH option against RHP only, but perhaps he would be motivated to opt out after this season??

I still think Hosmer does opt out but if he does not he is down to $13MM/year for 3 years and that is not obscene for his 100-110 wRC+ in this era. He does gain 10/5 no trade rights but if at any point he wants to move on he can (and would) waive those rights. Padres would still be able to move him but only have to pay down a small portion of his contract. Sort of suggests that the Padres should not do anything over the top to move Hosmer now given the shortage of hitters in place for 2022 and the specter of Myers going after the season.

Most probable for 2022 the Padres would have to eat half ($10MM) and give up a prospect expecting no significant return. Then they are down another hitter with only $10MM to deploy to come to the same spot. I guess the additional pay down of 2023-25 would be contingent on his not opting out.

Would I like to move on from Hosmer ... yes BUT a real risk that would put the 2022 Padres in a worse competitive position and, depending on the prospect that would accompany him, a worse 2023 forward. Hitters are getting harder to find ... Padres already need two ... not a lot coming soon in-house (Abrams, Capusano then a gap). Track record on signing FA not great.

Respectfully, this is where you and I disagree. You say they need two, a DH and a LFer.

I say 2020 proved that a true DH is not needed, using the DH to rotate starters off defense for a day to rest the legs. So I believe that we need only one additional bat, and that being LF.

I think we both agree, that if possible, a move of Hosmer would be great if they can find an upgrade. As you have mentioned, he is roughly league average, and just getting paid as well above average. So finding an upgrade is going to be difficult, since you are then hunting in the elite category, and while I give SD ownership credit for spending, you would think they eventually will reach a limit. And we need a LFer more than an upgrade at 1B, at this time.

So lets get the best OF option we can, and if needs be Myers can ship from RF to LF.

I would prefer LHH to balance the line up a little more.

Quote from fenn68 on January 18, 2022, 9:51 am

Quote from BoosterSD on January 18, 2022, 8:22 am

So could SD try and force Hosmers hand to opt out after this season by getting really crazy and sign Freddy Freeman? Yes, he is another estimated $30M per season contract, but could show Hosmer that he is not the answer anymore. Yes, that would make Hosmer a very expensive DH option against RHP only, but perhaps he would be motivated to opt out after this season??

I still think Hosmer does opt out but if he does not he is down to $13MM/year for 3 years and that is not obscene for his 100-110 wRC+ in this era. He does gain 10/5 no trade rights but if at any point he wants to move on he can (and would) waive those rights. Padres would still be able to move him but only have to pay down a small portion of his contract. Sort of suggests that the Padres should not do anything over the top to move Hosmer now given the shortage of hitters in place for 2022 and the specter of Myers going after the season.

Most probable for 2022 the Padres would have to eat half ($10MM) and give up a prospect expecting no significant return. Then they are down another hitter with only $10MM to deploy to come to the same spot. I guess the additional pay down of 2023-25 would be contingent on his not opting out.

Would I like to move on from Hosmer ... yes BUT a real risk that would put the 2022 Padres in a worse competitive position and, depending on the prospect that would accompany him, a worse 2023 forward. Hitters are getting harder to find ... Padres already need two ... not a lot coming soon in-house (Abrams, Capusano then a gap). Track record on signing FA not great.

Respectfully, this is where you and I disagree. You say they need two, a DH and a LFer.

I say 2020 proved that a true DH is not needed, using the DH to rotate starters off defense for a day to rest the legs. So I believe that we need only one additional bat, and that being LF.

I think we both agree, that if possible, a move of Hosmer would be great if they can find an upgrade. As you have mentioned, he is roughly league average, and just getting paid as well above average. So finding an upgrade is going to be difficult, since you are then hunting in the elite category, and while I give SD ownership credit for spending, you would think they eventually will reach a limit. And we need a LFer more than an upgrade at 1B, at this time.

So lets get the best OF option we can, and if needs be Myers can ship from RF to LF.

I would prefer LHH to balance the line up a little more.

#357 · January 18, 2022, 11:57 am

I think you guys are giving Hosmer way too much credit. There were 20+ guys at 1B that were better than him offensively. Add in his defense and Fangraphs had him as one of the 5 worst regulars in the league at any position. I don't want to do anything crazy to move him either, but let's be realistic in our evaluations.

padscharg has reacted to this post.

#358 · January 18, 2022, 12:25 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 18, 2022, 12:25 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on January 18, 2022, 11:34 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 18, 2022, 9:51 am

Quote from BoosterSD on January 18, 2022, 8:22 am

So could SD try and force Hosmers hand to opt out after this season by getting really crazy and sign Freddy Freeman? Yes, he is another estimated $30M per season contract, but could show Hosmer that he is not the answer anymore. Yes, that would make Hosmer a very expensive DH option against RHP only, but perhaps he would be motivated to opt out after this season??

I still think Hosmer does opt out but if he does not he is down to $13MM/year for 3 years and that is not obscene for his 100-110 wRC+ in this era. He does gain 10/5 no trade rights but if at any point he wants to move on he can (and would) waive those rights. Padres would still be able to move him but only have to pay down a small portion of his contract. Sort of suggests that the Padres should not do anything over the top to move Hosmer now given the shortage of hitters in place for 2022 and the specter of Myers going after the season.

Most probable for 2022 the Padres would have to eat half ($10MM) and give up a prospect expecting no significant return. Then they are down another hitter with only $10MM to deploy to come to the same spot. I guess the additional pay down of 2023-25 would be contingent on his not opting out.

Would I like to move on from Hosmer ... yes BUT a real risk that would put the 2022 Padres in a worse competitive position and, depending on the prospect that would accompany him, a worse 2023 forward. Hitters are getting harder to find ... Padres already need two ... not a lot coming soon in-house (Abrams, Capusano then a gap). Track record on signing FA not great.

Respectfully, this is where you and I disagree. You say they need two, a DH and a LFer.

I say 2020 proved that a true DH is not needed, using the DH to rotate starters off defense for a day to rest the legs. So I believe that we need only one additional bat, and that being LF.

I think we both agree, that if possible, a move of Hosmer would be great if they can find an upgrade. As you have mentioned, he is roughly league average, and just getting paid as well above average. So finding an upgrade is going to be difficult, since you are then hunting in the elite category, and while I give SD ownership credit for spending, you would think they eventually will reach a limit. And we need a LFer more than an upgrade at 1B, at this time.

So lets get the best OF option we can, and if needs be Myers can ship from RF to LF.

I would prefer LHH to balance the line up a little more.

Maybe semantics ... agree they don't need a full time DH specifically but they need a 9th quality hitter to either DH or fill in the OF or INF when the starter is used as the DH.

Add only one and currently that puts Profar / Kim likely as the 9th starter ... somewhere. IF one of the other eight starters is injured (history shows that will happen) ... likely both become starters.

Agree that a legit LF is the top priority ... frees up Profar for his most valuable role as a super utility guy for all the INF/OF roles (and DH). Kim is the wild card with his superior defense but woeful bat (so far). IF Tatis gets injured (not out of the question) ... Kim is the SS and the back-up INF is ???? just Profar.

If I could see my way to have Profar in the INF/1B role ... might target two OF to fill the #8 and #9 hitting slots. Leave Profar and Kim to be the bench to fill for the "rested" or injured or just rotate / platoon. That still leaves Caratini and Alfaro as the remaining bench options.

At least one add, if not both, are more likely to come via trade to keep the payroll under control. (or pitchers get dealt for minor leaguers to open payroll space).

Quote from BoosterSD on January 18, 2022, 11:34 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 18, 2022, 9:51 am

Quote from BoosterSD on January 18, 2022, 8:22 am

So could SD try and force Hosmers hand to opt out after this season by getting really crazy and sign Freddy Freeman? Yes, he is another estimated $30M per season contract, but could show Hosmer that he is not the answer anymore. Yes, that would make Hosmer a very expensive DH option against RHP only, but perhaps he would be motivated to opt out after this season??

I still think Hosmer does opt out but if he does not he is down to $13MM/year for 3 years and that is not obscene for his 100-110 wRC+ in this era. He does gain 10/5 no trade rights but if at any point he wants to move on he can (and would) waive those rights. Padres would still be able to move him but only have to pay down a small portion of his contract. Sort of suggests that the Padres should not do anything over the top to move Hosmer now given the shortage of hitters in place for 2022 and the specter of Myers going after the season.

Most probable for 2022 the Padres would have to eat half ($10MM) and give up a prospect expecting no significant return. Then they are down another hitter with only $10MM to deploy to come to the same spot. I guess the additional pay down of 2023-25 would be contingent on his not opting out.

Would I like to move on from Hosmer ... yes BUT a real risk that would put the 2022 Padres in a worse competitive position and, depending on the prospect that would accompany him, a worse 2023 forward. Hitters are getting harder to find ... Padres already need two ... not a lot coming soon in-house (Abrams, Capusano then a gap). Track record on signing FA not great.

Respectfully, this is where you and I disagree. You say they need two, a DH and a LFer.

I say 2020 proved that a true DH is not needed, using the DH to rotate starters off defense for a day to rest the legs. So I believe that we need only one additional bat, and that being LF.

I think we both agree, that if possible, a move of Hosmer would be great if they can find an upgrade. As you have mentioned, he is roughly league average, and just getting paid as well above average. So finding an upgrade is going to be difficult, since you are then hunting in the elite category, and while I give SD ownership credit for spending, you would think they eventually will reach a limit. And we need a LFer more than an upgrade at 1B, at this time.

So lets get the best OF option we can, and if needs be Myers can ship from RF to LF.

I would prefer LHH to balance the line up a little more.

Maybe semantics ... agree they don't need a full time DH specifically but they need a 9th quality hitter to either DH or fill in the OF or INF when the starter is used as the DH.

Add only one and currently that puts Profar / Kim likely as the 9th starter ... somewhere. IF one of the other eight starters is injured (history shows that will happen) ... likely both become starters.

Agree that a legit LF is the top priority ... frees up Profar for his most valuable role as a super utility guy for all the INF/OF roles (and DH). Kim is the wild card with his superior defense but woeful bat (so far). IF Tatis gets injured (not out of the question) ... Kim is the SS and the back-up INF is ???? just Profar.

If I could see my way to have Profar in the INF/1B role ... might target two OF to fill the #8 and #9 hitting slots. Leave Profar and Kim to be the bench to fill for the "rested" or injured or just rotate / platoon. That still leaves Caratini and Alfaro as the remaining bench options.

At least one add, if not both, are more likely to come via trade to keep the payroll under control. (or pitchers get dealt for minor leaguers to open payroll space).

#359 · January 18, 2022, 1:52 pm

Well, if you are looking for two position players to fill out LF and the bench. I think the two best options might be Eddie Rosario as main LFer and then Josh Harrison for probably the primary bench guy. He has spent most time at 2B, then 3B, and the LF. He is RHH so should complement both Rosario and if needs be, Cronenworth against a tough LHSP. But should be available for a reasonable contract, Rosario played last season for $8M and Harrison for $1M. So maybe both for $7.5M this season, with options for 2023?

Of course, this avoiding the trade option to avoid sending away what could be potentially useful prospects.

#360 · January 19, 2022, 8:23 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 19, 2022, 8:23 am
Preller will have some trade options with pitching ... somewhat forced by the number of pitchers without minor league options. If his first priority is putting the best 13 pitchers on the opening day 26 man roster while also considering the potential staff in 2023 (remember FA to be Clevinger, Musgrove, Martinez, Johnson, Stammen, Suarez) ... the ones dealt / kept is strategic in balance with the quality of return (and the help to the offense) in 2022 (or beyond). Also, needs some of the pitchers who can be optioned to be of the quality to be called up to cover injuries. Consider the 28 on the 40 man plus Nick Martinez who "signed":

13 pitchers who cannot be optioned: Musgrove; Darvish; Snell (L); Clevinger; Nick Martinez (likely the SP) then the RP ... Pomeranz (L); Johnson; Garcia; Suarez; Adams; Stammen; Norwood; Guerra.

5 "on the bubble" unlikely or too good to be optioned thus requiring moves for the first 13: Lamet; Paddack; Weathers (L); Hill (L): Pagan.

10 with options: Morejon (L); Baez; Gore (L); Knehr; Avila; A. Martinez; Contreras; Crismatt; Kerr (L); Wilson.

I see clear DFA of Guerra and Norwood (neither any trade value by themselves) opening up two slots on the 26 man for two of the bubble pitchers ... first though Hill being a veteran LHRP and Pagan RP which still leave Lamet, Paddack, and Weathers to the minors. I could see Weathers optioned for more experience but having a hard time seeing them option Lamet and Paddack even though a case could be made.

So, as I see it the Padres have a need for more hitters and have a potential logjam of pitchers ... a scenario that lends itself to a trade without damaging the payroll as would a FA signing. Keeping in mind the player traded needs to come out of the 13 without minor league options and is someone another team wants.

I expect Preller is hard at work with other GM structuring trades to be executed as soon as the CBA is approved under the assumption that is in March as a short window to set their 26 man roster for opening day.

Who could be moved that damages the pitching the least while improving the offense the most?

Preller will have some trade options with pitching ... somewhat forced by the number of pitchers without minor league options. If his first priority is putting the best 13 pitchers on the opening day 26 man roster while also considering the potential staff in 2023 (remember FA to be Clevinger, Musgrove, Martinez, Johnson, Stammen, Suarez) ... the ones dealt / kept is strategic in balance with the quality of return (and the help to the offense) in 2022 (or beyond). Also, needs some of the pitchers who can be optioned to be of the quality to be called up to cover injuries. Consider the 28 on the 40 man plus Nick Martinez who "signed":

13 pitchers who cannot be optioned: Musgrove; Darvish; Snell (L); Clevinger; Nick Martinez (likely the SP) then the RP ... Pomeranz (L); Johnson; Garcia; Suarez; Adams; Stammen; Norwood; Guerra.

5 "on the bubble" unlikely or too good to be optioned thus requiring moves for the first 13: Lamet; Paddack; Weathers (L); Hill (L): Pagan.

10 with options: Morejon (L); Baez; Gore (L); Knehr; Avila; A. Martinez; Contreras; Crismatt; Kerr (L); Wilson.

I see clear DFA of Guerra and Norwood (neither any trade value by themselves) opening up two slots on the 26 man for two of the bubble pitchers ... first though Hill being a veteran LHRP and Pagan RP which still leave Lamet, Paddack, and Weathers to the minors. I could see Weathers optioned for more experience but having a hard time seeing them option Lamet and Paddack even though a case could be made.

So, as I see it the Padres have a need for more hitters and have a potential logjam of pitchers ... a scenario that lends itself to a trade without damaging the payroll as would a FA signing. Keeping in mind the player traded needs to come out of the 13 without minor league options and is someone another team wants.

I expect Preller is hard at work with other GM structuring trades to be executed as soon as the CBA is approved under the assumption that is in March as a short window to set their 26 man roster for opening day.

Who could be moved that damages the pitching the least while improving the offense the most?

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