Quote from fenn68 on January 14, 2022, 10:45 am

Abrams? By most standards Abrams should NOT be ML ready to start the season with only a partial AA season under his belt. However, his elite prospect status coupled with Preller's mindset to challenging the best (e.g. Tatis and Weathers) could get Abrams in the ML early in 2022. His speed and defense will play now and it is only his bat (which is rated very good) that has to get ready.

IF the Padres have that view, does that somehow shape their other moves? Abrams could step into DH, middle INF, and OF roles.

Couple him with Campusano being near term ready and could they be better line-up options by mid-2022 (and then controlled for 6 additional years) than most of the fringe alternatives they may acquire ... at a cost?

Abrams in LF ... Campusano DH could allow for Profar (4th OF), Kim (reserve INF), Caratini or Alfaro (back-up catcher), and PTNL for the last bench spot ... chance of Mazara as a LHH OF since Profar and Abrams could swing between INF and OF if needed.

Yes a long shot mix (especially to start the season) but given the in-house options not out of the question. Plus both come in at league minimum ... a factor given the payroll and maybe the strategy of leaving some payroll flexibility for a trade deadline add that would come with a larger contract.

Quote from WindsorUK on January 14, 2022, 1:34 pm

I'd be happy with Caratini and Alfaro as catchers, with Campusano on the come.

If Nola can be packaged with someone like Pagan or Johnson, for an OF, then do it.

I like Nola but he just hasn't stayed healthy enough( really prefer to have Ty France though.....)

Quote from fenn68 on January 14, 2022, 2:12 pm

Quote from WindsorUK on January 14, 2022, 1:34 pm

I'd be happy with Caratini and Alfaro as catchers, with Campusano on the come.

If Nola can be packaged with someone like Pagan or Johnson, for an OF, then do it.

I like Nola but he just hasn't stayed healthy enough( really prefer to have Ty France though.....)

Agree on wanting Ty France … especially with the DH coming … but that ship has sailed.

I could see Nola moved in a deal and going with Caratini / Alfaro if the Padres really buy into the future of Campusano. However, the return if he is included in a package would have to have ML impact in 2022. Including him with a major trade asset might get a good deal over the top.

He should have decent value but not a major target from another team … low cost / long control / good hitter for a catcher … best suited for a shared catching role for health reasons. Keep in mind that at the time the Padres acquired him (along with Adams and Altavilla) the prospects they sent were not elite … France, Munoz, Torrens, and Trammell (whose elite status had eroded).

Quote from fenn68 on January 14, 2022, 2:56 pm

Probably just an irrelevant thought but Jake Cronenworth turns 28 next week and under the current CBA rules Padres control him for four more years (FA at age 32) and probably not an extension candidate at this time.

BUT under the owners’ new CBA proposal (probably will not be agreed to) instead of six year control for older players … FA would be granted at age 29 1/2 (think as of Jul 1 cutoff). That would cut control of Cronenworth down from four to two years and would make the extension potential front and center … and bring his contract cost up sooner than planned. That would be good for Cronenworth getting his FA accelerated to his “prime production years” and potentially getting a larger / longer deal.

Not so good for the Padres who first would have to get him to agree to an extension and then pay more than under the current CBA.

With Abrams in the wings … would the Padres at some point consider dealing a valuable Cronenworth (good return potential) given the change in his status?

Quote from dusty on January 14, 2022, 5:06 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 14, 2022, 2:56 pm

Probably just an irrelevant thought but Jake Cronenworth turns 28 next week and under the current CBA rules Padres control him for four more years (FA at age 32) and probably not an extension candidate at this time.

BUT under the owners’ new CBA proposal (probably will not be agreed to) instead of six year control for older players … FA would be granted at age 29 1/2 (think as of Jul 1 cutoff). That would cut control of Cronenworth down from four to two years and would make the extension potential front and center … and bring his contract cost up sooner than planned. That would be good for Cronenworth getting his FA accelerated to his “prime production years” and potentially getting a larger / longer deal.

Not so good for the Padres who first would have to get him to agree to an extension and then pay more than under the current CBA.

With Abrams in the wings … would the Padres at some point consider dealing a valuable Cronenworth (good return potential) given the change in his status?

If this ends up being the case, I keep him through at least another year. See what he will demand from an extension point of view. Offer 5-6 years. This is something I would have looked into and possibly something the Padres had done had it not been for Hosmer and/or Myers’ deals being on the books. Depending how qualifying offers change possibly just let him play out his deal. Then have Abrams/Kim take over at second for him unless Crone is shifted to first before then.

Quote from fenn68 on January 16, 2022, 7:00 am

Saw MLBTR floating Max Kepler (OF, MINN) as a potential trade candidate. Preller should call since a match as trade partners seems strong.

Padres need an OF bat since as it stand LF/4th OF is between Profar (3 year wRC+ 92) and Mazara (3 year wRC+ 82). Kepler (3 year wRC+ 109). Plus Kepler is a vastly superior defensive OF than Profar / Mazara.

Twins need SP badly if they want to contend. Have decent offense with a couple of decent younger players to take the OF roles … so Kepler could be expendable coming off a so-so 2021. Padres have (in my mind) pitching to deal if all are healthy and will get to a roster oversupply to get down to the final 26 man roster.

Kepler will be only 29 … LHH with power but low BA and so-so OBP but not a big K guy. 3 years control (6.8MM - 8.5MM - 10MM club option) should be workable for the Padres … especially given the lack of internal OF options now and after Myers goes as a FA.

Should note that MINN has a sub-$100MM payroll going into 2022 … not much left on the FA market when it comes to pitching, so should be motivated.

Which Padre SP would get this done from both the Padre and Twins view?

Maybe package Paddack and Pagan (MINN also needs RP) they would offset about $4-5MM of Kepler’s $6.8MM and the control periods are comparable. Maybe MINN can kick in a couple of million in 2022 to balance the money?

Quote from BoosterSD on January 16, 2022, 5:38 pm

Saw that and started thinking myself. Although, I dont know if I am ready to give up on Pagan. And it could be too much to give up for Kepler. So maybe, Paddack and someone less essential to the bull pen success.

But Kepler could be a good bounce back candidate, and at a low cost.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 17, 2022, 2:58 pm

I think we should be aiming a little higher than Kepler. Seems a lot like Hosmer offensively. He struggles with lefties and has been killed by the shift thanks to an extremely pull happy and ground ball heavy approach.

On a different note, I heard a clip from Kevin Acee on a podcast. He was asked what the priority would be for the team coming out of the lockout. He said they would be looking to add a big bat and brought up Castellanos by name. He also basically said that he thinks they're in too deep to stop spending now.

They've been linked to guys who are going to command big contracts like Castellanos, Bryant, and Suzuki. I also saw that the player's latest proposal had the first CBT threshold at 245m. I doubt it ends up that high, but there should be a significant increase. We know Seidler wants to win and has been willing to spend. It makes me wonder if we might be able to fit in another big contract without moving one first when it's all said and done.

Quote from fenn68 on January 17, 2022, 3:49 pm

I would not take anything Acee speculates as an informed insight. Heard another reporter suggesting that every time someone suggests Castellanos to the Padres … internally they just laugh … not going to happen.

Personally, although Castellanos has a huge reputation as an elite hitter … this record before last season (playing in hitter friendly CNN / NL Centeral) has been good but not elite … then a DH only. Would I sign him … yes … but my limit would be a lot less than he likely will get from someone else.

Note an earlier post I had suggest a number of scouts have some significant questions about Suzuki in the ML hitting high velocity with this all out pull swing. Think another Kim.

As for Kepler, agree he is not the game changer BUT the Padres need at least TWO bats to fill out their line-up and Kepler is at last a slightly above league average hitter (by wRC+) and a LHH with power and is a better defensive OF option that anyone the Padres have for the 3rd OF slot.

I guess if I had another $20MM to deploy … more like adding 2 $10MM types for LF and DH. Maybe a Kepler (via trade) and Cruz (or similar) on a one year deal in FA.

Side note: IF the CBA signing is “late” and ST to opening day is very short … there should be a lot of pressure on the FA to get something done before opening day. Teams for good or bad will have moved to their 26 man roster for opening day … might be willing to see what they have with their current crop first and not rush to sign a FA. If players don’t sign … they don’t get paid.

At that point, teams may be able to get some real good signing bargains on one year deals for those just under the handful of top FA. I could see that with Schwarber but not likely Bryant or Castellanos (who is on a QO). Side: I am guessing Suzuki has a verbal agreement with some team in his pocket … he basically has said he is not going back to Japan (the clock has a deadline before the CBA is done) and if he did not have a deal that would be a huge risk. (Remember the Padres “signed” Nick Martinez out of Japan … it was reported … but never officially submitted to / approved by MLB.