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Off Season Moves and discussion
#331 · January 13, 2022, 10:42 am
I like the Yankees as a potential trade partner for Hosmer. It seems clear that they want a LH 1B. If they can't get Olson or Freeman the next best option is probably to resign Rizzo. Hosmer and Rizzo are comparable players. MLBTR is predicting a 3/45 contract for Rizzo. The Padres could offer Hosmer for a deal built around Aaron Hicks. Both are signed through 2025 with Hosmer owed 59m and Hicks owed 42m. The Padres could add cash or prospects to close the gap. The simplest solution might be to include Zack Britton. He's owed 15m this year and is set to be a free agent at the end of the year. He also had Tommy John surgery and is likely out for the season. It wouldn't save the Padres a ton of money overall and they would actually be taking on money this year. However, it would lower their luxury tax salary by 8m a year from 2023-25.
Hicks has struggled to stay healthy, so the Yankees might be ready to move on. This would allow them to reallocate resources that would have gone towards 1B to other areas at a minimal cost. If he's healthy Hicks gives the Padres a CF capable OF that they need and a backup plan if they can't find a bigger upgrade in the corners. It also gives them some flexibility in the targets they could go after from a positional standpoint. Ideally they would probably want to save more money, but this is something I thought up that could allow them to move Hosmer without giving up top prospects.
#332 · January 13, 2022, 12:54 pm
I have been eyeing the NYY as a Hosmer home … basically they want to add a LHH and appear to want to move on from injury plagued Voit.
However, I see the value in trading Hosmer is the reduction of payroll to use for a FA signing in 2022. (I still think Hosmer opts out after 2022). No need to clog up the Padre roster with other “maybe” players.
To get the NYY to take Hosmer’s salary (or at least the bulk for 2022) would see the Padres having to add Campusano. NYY are close to moving on from Sanchez and they do seem like offense first catchers. The catch is the new CBA terms and the willingness of the NYY to up their payroll. There is an outside chance that the NYY would take Hosmer and the bulk of his salary in 2022 if a couple of lower level prospects were added (maybe in the #6-#11 range) … hold onto Campusano who may end up the Padres DH/1B post Hosmer.
I still am worried about filling the DH and LF roles (2 line-up slots) with competent hitters BEFORE moving on from Hosmer … plus having a bench bat or two if the Padres end up with bench players in regular roles … need to cover injuries / rest games.
#333 · January 13, 2022, 2:04 pm
Just to continue my “reluctance” in dealing Hosmer or Myers without a replacement plan. We may not be pleased with neither living up to the expectations of their contracts but both grade out as average (slightly above average) offensive players.
As it stands Profar is your LF and the 9th slot (be that DH or coverage for the starter who is serving as the DH) is sorting itself out among Alfaro, Campusano, Caratini, Kim, and likely Marzara. That is not a winning line-up. Take out Homser or Myers without a “better” replacement … heading to a worse offense line-up. Basically dealing either must include sending out their salary (which will require including some top prospects) so that that money can buy a FA bat (hopefully better) but does not solve the offensive holes of LF/DH. (Note that Preller has been trying to deal both for quite some time … not takes are his price … suggesting not really much of a market).
I have moved on. IF the Padres want to improve the offense they need to deal players other teams want and too that end I see that as pitching which is is extremely high demand around the entire league.
It all a gamble but trading Darvish (with Caratini) may get a decent player in return and potentially clear payroll space to use for a FA signing. (Also helps clear the catcher overstock of Nola, Alfaro, Campusano, and Caratini). For the payroll space (for the next 2 years) would take a “decent” ML player and a prospect or even just a near ML ready quality prospect.
Padres would still be left with Musgrove, Snell, Clevinger, N.Martinez, Weathers, Paddack, and Lamet vying for the 5 SP slots. That is still a better 5 than most.
#334 · January 13, 2022, 3:36 pm
I’m hoping the reason to trade Hosmer….and lose a good prospect,is to save money “this year” to sign Castellanos/Suzuki/Schwarber.
I don’t want to lose a prospect or two just to save money(not my money).
Otherwise DH Hosmer against RH pitching and wait to move him next year after his cost drops.
#335 · January 13, 2022, 4:45 pm
Castellanos / Suzuki / Schwarber all have their issues (and cost) ... so?
Suzuki is probably the lowest cost option ... a good fielder in the OF. However, big risk given some of the scouting reports I have seen. Basically he appears to be an all out upper cut pull hitter that works well in Japan with lower velocity but the ML concern is ability to hit the high inside FB in the ML. Note most think he is quite effective on the breaking ball. The OF version of Kim ... who was a super star in Korea.
Schwarber is a DH only ... even though he gets stuck in LF/1B as a very poor defender. Apparently looking for a $70MM/4 year deal. Coming off his best season but a career 118 wRC+ which is fine but not great given the defensive liability. Do the Padres really want to clog up the next 4 years at $17.5MM/yr?
Castellanos is interesting ... also coming off his best season offensively but in a very hitter friendly ballpark in CINN and a hitter friendly NL Central. Also, a very bad defensive player no matter where you play him. Another DH only type (see the Schwarber comment). He, like Schwarber, has a fine offense career with a 115 wRC+ but not great given the defensive liability. He is asking more than Schwarber in dollars and years plus since he has a QO and the Padres crossed the tax threshold ... the Padres would lose the second pick in the draft and $1MM off the international signing pool money. If I am concerned about the long term value of Schwarber ... more so with signing Castellanos give the longer commitment / higher cost.
Not buying into signing any of them if the cost is losing Hosmer and quality prospects ... just not that much better now ... a drag on the future .... and the Padres still need to add two more bats for LF and 1B/DH.
Now if they could clear Hosmer's $20MM and use a few RP trades (e.g. Pagan, Johnson) to clear a bit more ... would the Padres to be better off to focus short run and sign some combo of Cruz, Soler, Rosario, TBD ... more like $10MM/yr players but will provide coverage of two line-up slots with "OK" production?
#336 · January 13, 2022, 7:34 pm
Short of a big bounce back season I think there's almost zero chance Hosmer opts out. Fangraphs had him as a 0 WAR player. Baseball Reference had him at 1. He can't hit lefties and his defensive skills are eroding. He's not going to come anywhere close to 3/39 playing like he has been. Also can't wait to move him since he's set to gain full no trade rights as a 10/5 guy after this season.
#337 · January 13, 2022, 7:44 pm
Hosmer and Myers generate a lot of controversy, including whether we would be better off keeping them or trading them with or without sacrificing one or more top prospects. My opinion is that you have to look at this from the entire team perspective both current and future. I agree with Fenn in that we can't afford to create more holes in our offense by trading one or more of these guys when both are basically league average (although overpaid) and likely both are in their final year with San Diego.
Most will remember the great year both had in 2020 but we knew that was probably an outlier given the short season and COVID impact. But was 2021 also an outlier? Both Hosmer and Myers had COVID time lost but only Myers had an injury - nagging knee injury I believe to both knees although maybe not at the same time. Lets examine the data:
Hosmer - 2020 128 (wRC+); 10.3 (barrel); 136 (Hctx); 22.5 (HR/FB); B/D (Exit Velo/Launch Angle)
2021 102 (wRC+); 5.8 (barrel); 107 (Hctx); 11.3 (HR/FB); B/F (Exit Velo/Launch Angle)
Avg w SD. 93 (wRC+); 6.0 (barrel); 100 (Hctx); 20.1 (HR/FB); B/F (Exit Velo/Launch Angle)
Given improving wRC+ and constant barrel/Hctx over the past few years, it seems that if he can just get that launch angle to
one notch higher, he will earn his keep (despite his defensive deficiencies) by getting to a better HR/FB rate which might
equal more RBIs and a higher batting average
Myers - 2020 155 (wRC+); 14.8 (barrel); 139 (Hctx); 45.8 (HR/FB); B/C (Exit velo/launch angle)
2021. 109 (wRC+); 7.5 (barrel); 83 (Hctx); 37.7 (HR/FB); C/C (exit velo/launch angle)
Avg w SD. 109 (wRC+); 8.0 (barrel); 111 (Hctx); 45.0 (HR/FB); B/C (exit velo/launch angle)
If Myers can get to his norm, which looks like it was affected by injury), he also will be worth keeping in the lineup.
All that being said, I agree with Fenn to trade pitching to get the missing pieces and open up next year with more space to sign free agents without giving up top prospects. Odds are we can't have the plethora of injuries we had this year and we'll hav much more depth from some of the off-season signees. Explanation of my data is on my Analytics post.
#338 · January 14, 2022, 5:01 am
I guess the Padres may look at the remaining off season moves as not “urgent” and … for now … stand pat.
First, nothing happens until the CBA is ratified … maybe March and the season starts March 31. 30 teams will be rushing to fill their holes and that is a recipe for overpaying FA or making panic trades.
Second, if as expected, the playoff structure expands to 14 teams (7 in NL). If the Padres believe that the current roster gets them into the playoffs without a major move … would it be more strategic to wait on moves until the trade deadline when they can be targeted at the most immediate critical need.
Padres could go with some non-major moves in March with moving some high demand pitching … Padres will have to address that with their volume of pitching options that either can’t be assigned to the minors (or too critical to option). RP such as Pagan, Johnson, Stammen will have a market and may yield a useful piece in return or just clear some payroll for a fringe FA bat.
If the Padres see Abrams, Campusano, Gore, and Wilson as “close” … their boost to the playoff run by mid-summer may fill certain needs or free-up another player for a deadline move.
A case for don’t shoot until they see the whites of their eyes?
#339 · January 14, 2022, 6:03 am
I guess SD could sit back and see if the "Melvin" effect works with Myers and more importantly Hosmer. I am not worried about trading Myers. He is one and done. No reason to do anything over the top to move him, like adding a large sum of money or a highly touted prospect.
Hosmer on the other hand, is a dangerous quandary. Can Melvin get him back to the good KC days? Does he opt out? The 5/10 situation. These all have to go into play.
I guess the best option would be to sit back and wait. I do agree with J HIll, I dont think there is anyway that he opts out. He is not going to get better than 3/39 from anyone. So unless a lucky sweetheart of a deal presents itself prior to the season starting, I think you wait to the deadline and see what you can get done then. Then you also have 3 more months of what Campusano, Gore, Abrams etc are capable of, and roll the dice of including a top tier prospect to assist in the subtraction of Hosmer from the team.
#340 · January 14, 2022, 9:37 am
So as it appears, if the season where to start tomorrow, I would imagine that the line up would look somewhat like this.
Machado, Tatis, and Crone are all locks at 3B, SS, and 2B. I could see a platoon of Nola and Hosmer at 1B with Nola DH against RHP and playing 1B against LHP, and then sitting Hosmer and giving one of the other 3 INFs the day as DH and giving Kim a start. And then leaving the catching duties to Caratini and Alfaro. This should be a decent look as Nola seems to break down playing catcher.
Myers and Grisham are penciled in at RF and CF, leaving LF as the one less than ideal position spot.
Could look at a mid level signing such as a Corey Dickerson type player. A platoon between Profar and Mazara. Or a minor trade of a ML caliber guy from a rebuilding team that is on his last season prior to FA.
Still think SD is RHH heavy, especially when it comes to power. So a LHH power LFer would be my preference. Not sure who that could be though....would NYY be willing to work a deal around Gallo?