Quote from fenn68 on December 28, 2021, 1:33 pm

Doubt both sides agree to play under the old CBA … one side (or the other) will see that as a major disadvantage in negotiations and realistically nothing will change for a lockout next winter. The owners went the lockout route at expiration to avoid getting a repeat of an earlier negotiation when they did play under the old CBA only for the Union to go on strike in August … after the players earned the bulk of their pay but before the owners made the money from the playoff run and playoffs. Union got the negotiation advantage then … owners learned.

Quote from fenn68 on December 28, 2021, 1:45 pm

Since I think it will cost a major prospects and having to eat a major portion of their salaries … dealing either Hosmer or Myers while creating an additional hole in the starting line-up (where they already have two holes with the DH) … just does not make sense if they want to contend in 2022 and going forward.

Padres should consider dealing Darvish … someone as a SP a lot of teams would be willing to take with his salary (and 2 years control). Could land a bat … but more likely a quality prospect while freeing up salary space for a FA signing. Take the gamble on a SP rotation of Musgrove, Clevinger, Snell, Paddack, Weathers … with N.Martinez, Lamet, Gore pushing in.

Trade a bundle of Darvish / Caratini and save about $22MM … that could land one big name FA bat or two better than average (e.g. Cruz at about $11MM).

Quote from fenn68 on December 28, 2021, 1:57 pm

Expect before the start of the season the Padres will make some deals from the pitching staff … in part the number of arms that cannot be optioned blocking maybe better internal prospects from a ML role.

Pitchers have value as trade chips … waiting to the last moment to negotiate a deal or having to DFA … will not get max value. So we should expect Preller to be aggressive in making a move early in ST.

My guess is Preller will trade almost anyone … if the return is right … or to clear payroll space. I could see teams taking flyers on Pagan, Johnson, etc. … an accumulation of smaller salaries can add up to making room for a signing such as Cruz.

Add Preller into the current situation and expect the unexpected.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on December 29, 2021, 7:25 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 28, 2021, 8:41 am

Interesting ideas ... but as counter-point:

Trade #1 with Baltimore would never fly with the O's. Baltimore is a bad team, low budget, trying to rebuild for the future ... Mullins and Means combine for a $4MM 2022 cost and have long economical control. O's are willing to deal them but for a load of top prospects (longer control / lower cost). They have no need to deal either one unless the return is a bonanza in elite prospects. Zero chance they would take Hosmer (and his contract) and either catcher (and their contract) since they have ready for 2022 the #1 catching prospect in MLB. I would expect they make separate trades trying to get a better top prospect returns since one team either does not have the quality in a second prospect or they would not be willing to deal two elite prospects.

I know everyone wants to move Hosmer's contract ... is not going to happen and get anything of quality in return plus the Padres would have to bribe the buying team with adding blue chip prospect. A more likely scenario is moving Hosmer to a well financed team (who would take the contract ... or most of it) by adding someone like Campusano for a return of a couple of fringe prospects (or rookie ball types). Think more like NYY taking on Hosmer (looking for a LHH 1B) and Campusano (their catching situation is problematic going forward) for Voit.

I would focus on a deal for Mullins with 4 years control at league minimum and he fills a need now (and for the next few years) in the OF. One caution ... now 27 and last season was his "breakout" season ... not much production before that ... scouts have to be careful in his projection.

The MLBTR article specifically states that the BAL beat writer says that they are looking for a ML veteran catcher to back up Mountcastle, and thats why Caratini or Alfaro would be great in that situation. Plus it is possible, that depending on the new CBA, that BAL would want to keep Mountcastle in the MiL for service time manipulation.

As for Mullins, I totally agree with being concerned about this last season being an outlier and not the norm. You would have to really like his defense and hope that is worth the prospects that you would have to give up.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 29, 2021, 7:28 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 28, 2021, 8:49 am

Signing Schwarber ... at what price? Apparently (for now) he is seeking a multi year deal in the $20MM per year range. Unless they move Hosmer (or Darvish or Myers) not going to happen.

Last season was good for Schwarber but prior to that he was just a bit better than an average hitter and a very poor defensive option (really a DH only).

He may be a good one year gamble as a DH ... but would not commit to a 3-4 year deal.

One year DH options will be out there ... think Nelson Cruz for less money.

My point was if they are really looking at Castellanos, I would prefer Schwarber. I think they really are the same player, one righty and one lefty. I think we have plenty of RHH power, and virtually nil LHH power. We really need some balance in that matter IMO.

Plus, I would rather go 3 years than 7 that Castellanos is saying to be wanting.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 29, 2021, 7:34 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 28, 2021, 9:14 am

Trade for Olson. Now that move appeals to me ... All-Star quality with 2 control years at about $12MM in 2022. Padres need a companion move to open up that $12 payroll space.

Padres probably would have to have the #1 piece as one of Weathers - Gore - Hassell ... left out Abrams since think he will be a key in the next few years either in the INF / OF for the success of the Padres. Then fill with a couple of next tier prospects.

Side: in terms of trade value (not potential) ... Lawson has none considering he was DFA and cleared waivers. Morejon probably has a bit more (but not much) coming off TJ surgery. They have more value as prospects for the Padres than what they could get from another team. Both will have to actually produce over a season in the minors before the create some trade value.

I think Abrams has very little value to the ML SD team if he does not leave the dirt. Who is he going to replace? Not Tatis, not Machado, not Cronenworth. And as you always mention, we are not able to get rid of Hosmer. So I would keep Hassell as he is a true OFer, and at this time, Abrams has not played in the grass yet.

Now, if  you tell me that SD now sees Abrams as an elite CFer, then I get more excited about Abrams.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 29, 2021, 7:50 am

To be honest, I dont think I would look to trade Myers at all. I think with Melvin coming in, and Myers basically going into his last contract season, he might have a good season. I would hate to attach a very good prospect to make him go away, and then watch him have a very good year.

Now, I think we can all agree that he is not worth his $20+M contract that he is playing on this season. But with his defense, and career 111 OPS+, I think he is a really good option at around $10M a year.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 29, 2021, 11:16 am

Quote from BoosterSD on December 29, 2021, 7:25 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 28, 2021, 8:41 am

Interesting ideas ... but as counter-point:

Trade #1 with Baltimore would never fly with the O's. Baltimore is a bad team, low budget, trying to rebuild for the future ... Mullins and Means combine for a $4MM 2022 cost and have long economical control. O's are willing to deal them but for a load of top prospects (longer control / lower cost). They have no need to deal either one unless the return is a bonanza in elite prospects. Zero chance they would take Hosmer (and his contract) and either catcher (and their contract) since they have ready for 2022 the #1 catching prospect in MLB. I would expect they make separate trades trying to get a better top prospect returns since one team either does not have the quality in a second prospect or they would not be willing to deal two elite prospects.

I know everyone wants to move Hosmer's contract ... is not going to happen and get anything of quality in return plus the Padres would have to bribe the buying team with adding blue chip prospect. A more likely scenario is moving Hosmer to a well financed team (who would take the contract ... or most of it) by adding someone like Campusano for a return of a couple of fringe prospects (or rookie ball types). Think more like NYY taking on Hosmer (looking for a LHH 1B) and Campusano (their catching situation is problematic going forward) for Voit.

I would focus on a deal for Mullins with 4 years control at league minimum and he fills a need now (and for the next few years) in the OF. One caution ... now 27 and last season was his "breakout" season ... not much production before that ... scouts have to be careful in his projection.

The MLBTR article specifically states that the BAL beat writer says that they are looking for a ML veteran catcher to back up Mountcastle, and thats why Caratini or Alfaro would be great in that situation. Plus it is possible, that depending on the new CBA, that BAL would want to keep Mountcastle in the MiL for service time manipulation.

As for Mullins, I totally agree with being concerned about this last season being an outlier and not the norm. You would have to really like his defense and hope that is worth the prospects that you would have to give up.

You mean Rutschman right?

Mountcastle is 1b/Lf

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 29, 2021, 12:03 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on December 29, 2021, 7:34 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 28, 2021, 9:14 am

Trade for Olson. Now that move appeals to me ... All-Star quality with 2 control years at about $12MM in 2022. Padres need a companion move to open up that $12 payroll space.

Padres probably would have to have the #1 piece as one of Weathers - Gore - Hassell ... left out Abrams since think he will be a key in the next few years either in the INF / OF for the success of the Padres. Then fill with a couple of next tier prospects.

Side: in terms of trade value (not potential) ... Lawson has none considering he was DFA and cleared waivers. Morejon probably has a bit more (but not much) coming off TJ surgery. They have more value as prospects for the Padres than what they could get from another team. Both will have to actually produce over a season in the minors before the create some trade value.

I think Abrams has very little value to the ML SD team if he does not leave the dirt. Who is he going to replace? Not Tatis, not Machado, not Cronenworth. And as you always mention, we are not able to get rid of Hosmer. So I would keep Hassell as he is a true OFer, and at this time, Abrams has not played in the grass yet.

Now, if  you tell me that SD now sees Abrams as an elite CFer, then I get more excited about Abrams.

Abrams (at least by some reports) is not resistant to the OF but if the DH arrives in the NL … and if Melvin “rotates” into the DH to give players rest … there is a lot of value to Abrams who could be showing up in a lot of spots while playing virtually full time. (Note maybe mid-season but likely 2023).

Now I give it 50/50 that Hosmer opts out after the season and looks to beat the remaining $39MM/3 years or even meet that number in a “better” (in his mind) situation (e.g. home in Miami). ? Cronenworth to 1B … Abrams to 2B in 2023.

With Myers becoming a FA after the season and legit chance Hosmer opts out … hard pressed to see dealing any of the hitting prospects. More likely seeing the money “saved” will be directed to FA signings … likely OF … for 2023.

======

Do idea how the Padres work this into their thinking but after 2022 Hosmer gains full no trade rights … maybe something the Padres want to avoid. Would that motivate the Padres to eat a major portion of Hosmer’s deal? In a sense it is “sunk cost” so are the alternatives better over the next 4 years? If they eat most of the contract … may not have to add a major prospect.

Maybe eat $15MM (of the $20MM) in 2022 and conditionally $3-5MM in each of the following years if he does not opt out?

A number of teams are interested in a 1B … Hosmer for $5MM in 2022 might be a fit for a contender with a limited payroll space.

Not a likely Preller approach while he wants to contend and needs more offense … but an alternative scenario.