Quote from BoosterSD on December 29, 2021, 12:40 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 29, 2021, 11:16 am

Quote from BoosterSD on December 29, 2021, 7:25 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 28, 2021, 8:41 am

Interesting ideas ... but as counter-point:

Trade #1 with Baltimore would never fly with the O's. Baltimore is a bad team, low budget, trying to rebuild for the future ... Mullins and Means combine for a $4MM 2022 cost and have long economical control. O's are willing to deal them but for a load of top prospects (longer control / lower cost). They have no need to deal either one unless the return is a bonanza in elite prospects. Zero chance they would take Hosmer (and his contract) and either catcher (and their contract) since they have ready for 2022 the #1 catching prospect in MLB. I would expect they make separate trades trying to get a better top prospect returns since one team either does not have the quality in a second prospect or they would not be willing to deal two elite prospects.

I know everyone wants to move Hosmer's contract ... is not going to happen and get anything of quality in return plus the Padres would have to bribe the buying team with adding blue chip prospect. A more likely scenario is moving Hosmer to a well financed team (who would take the contract ... or most of it) by adding someone like Campusano for a return of a couple of fringe prospects (or rookie ball types). Think more like NYY taking on Hosmer (looking for a LHH 1B) and Campusano (their catching situation is problematic going forward) for Voit.

I would focus on a deal for Mullins with 4 years control at league minimum and he fills a need now (and for the next few years) in the OF. One caution ... now 27 and last season was his "breakout" season ... not much production before that ... scouts have to be careful in his projection.

The MLBTR article specifically states that the BAL beat writer says that they are looking for a ML veteran catcher to back up Mountcastle, and thats why Caratini or Alfaro would be great in that situation. Plus it is possible, that depending on the new CBA, that BAL would want to keep Mountcastle in the MiL for service time manipulation.

As for Mullins, I totally agree with being concerned about this last season being an outlier and not the norm. You would have to really like his defense and hope that is worth the prospects that you would have to give up.

You mean Rutschman right?

Mountcastle is 1b/Lf

 

You are correct sir, thank you.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 29, 2021, 12:46 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 29, 2021, 12:03 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on December 29, 2021, 7:34 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 28, 2021, 9:14 am

Trade for Olson. Now that move appeals to me ... All-Star quality with 2 control years at about $12MM in 2022. Padres need a companion move to open up that $12 payroll space.

Padres probably would have to have the #1 piece as one of Weathers - Gore - Hassell ... left out Abrams since think he will be a key in the next few years either in the INF / OF for the success of the Padres. Then fill with a couple of next tier prospects.

Side: in terms of trade value (not potential) ... Lawson has none considering he was DFA and cleared waivers. Morejon probably has a bit more (but not much) coming off TJ surgery. They have more value as prospects for the Padres than what they could get from another team. Both will have to actually produce over a season in the minors before the create some trade value.

I think Abrams has very little value to the ML SD team if he does not leave the dirt. Who is he going to replace? Not Tatis, not Machado, not Cronenworth. And as you always mention, we are not able to get rid of Hosmer. So I would keep Hassell as he is a true OFer, and at this time, Abrams has not played in the grass yet.

Now, if  you tell me that SD now sees Abrams as an elite CFer, then I get more excited about Abrams.

Abrams (at least by some reports) is not resistant to the OF but if the DH arrives in the NL … and if Melvin “rotates” into the DH to give players rest … there is a lot of value to Abrams who could be showing up in a lot of spots while playing virtually full time. (Note maybe mid-season but likely 2023).

Now I give it 50/50 that Hosmer opts out after the season and looks to beat the remaining $39MM/3 years or even meet that number in a “better” (in his mind) situation (e.g. home in Miami). ? Cronenworth to 1B … Abrams to 2B in 2023.

With Myers becoming a FA after the season and legit chance Hosmer opts out … hard pressed to see dealing any of the hitting prospects. More likely seeing the money “saved” will be directed to FA signings … likely OF … for 2023.

======

Do idea how the Padres work this into their thinking but after 2022 Hosmer gains full no trade rights … maybe something the Padres want to avoid. Would that motivate the Padres to eat a major portion of Hosmer’s deal? In a sense it is “sunk cost” so are the alternatives better over the next 4 years? If they eat most of the contract … may not have to add a major prospect.

Maybe eat $15MM (of the $20MM) in 2022 and conditionally $3-5MM in each of the following years if he does not opt out?

A number of teams are interested in a 1B … Hosmer for $5MM in 2022 might be a fit for a contender with a limited payroll space.

Not a likely Preller approach while he wants to contend and needs more offense … but an alternative scenario.

There was a rumor that CHC did have some interest in taking Hosmer from SD. There was mention of Campusano going to CHC. Also in the same rumor, TEX was willing to take Hosmer for Hassell.

From the MLBTR blog. There has been much speculation that the Padres could try to trade Hosmer or Myers by including a top prospect in the deal, as a rebuilding team with payroll space might be willing to eat some salary in order to essentially buy a blue chip minor leaguer.  The Padres discussed Hosmer with the Rangers and Cubs at the trade deadline, with Robert Hassell III reportedly part of the negotiations with Texas, and Lin writes that catching prospect Luis Campusano was part of the Hosmer talks with Chicago.

I dont think I would be interested in trading Hassell. He seems to important to the future of the club IMO. I could live with trading Campusano, and I think Hosmer would do better at Wrigley with the shorter fences, and the wind blowing out.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 29, 2021, 12:52 pm

If they could trade Hosmer to CHC, with Campusano going as the compensation. Then I go all in to get Olson from OAK. I really think he makes SD a true WS contender. Power, average, OBP, defense, and a Melvin guy.

Machado, Tatis, Cronenworth, and Olson......what an infield that would be!

OF would be light with Myers, Grisham, and Profar at this time, but didnt KC win it all with a light hitting OF and very good pitching and deffense?

Quote from fenn68 on December 29, 2021, 1:51 pm

Also the note on MLBTR suggest that WASH would take on contract if accompanied with prospects for the future … and if the DH comes to the NL room for that added bat.

At some level … the “buyer” has to determine if one elite prospect added is better (in the long run) than two - three next tier prospects. Prospects fail (even the elite) and if not contending in the near term would they be better off with multiple prospects even from lower levels? Would Wood or Merrill with a couple of mid - level prospects be more appealing than Campusano? (I am OK with trading Campusano but if I can use him elsewhere … more flexibility).

Since the Padres are light in the OF and Myers is a FA after the season (clearing his contract) … would not go out of my way to trade him. The focus would be on Hosmer who is limited to 1B and, as I said earlier, could be a problem for an additional three years. Padres could land reasonably similar productivity for 1B on a one year deal for a lot less to fill if needed … or could not land Olson. Actually since offense is Campusano’s main selling point and he had a very good finish in 2021 … maybe he can cover 1B with Nola.

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 29, 2021, 2:00 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 29, 2021, 12:32 pm

After what transpired last season I also find it hard to believe AJ is willing to trade any of his top 6-7 Starting options.

Could you imagine he trades Darvish or even Paddack or Weathers and by August we are running the likes of Arrieta out there again in a pennant race?

 

Just where he wants to take the risk plus what the return would be for the pitcher he deals.

If Preller gets to August and a LF/DH is manned by Profar / Mazara … both hitting well below average and the offense is not producing while the starting staff of Musgrove, Clevinger, Darvish, Snell, and N. Martinez is healthy and the likes of Paddack, Lamet, Weathers, or Gore are marginalized in the pen or in the minors.

Preller will get lambasted if he trades pitching and the pitching falls apart or does not trade pitching for offense and the offense falls apart. Or if he trades pitching for offense and both the pitching and offense fail.

It is all a gamble since predicting accurately the 2022 performance based on the past is no certainty (see Pham, Kemp, Upton, Shields, etc.).

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2021, 3:08 pm

Still building on my wishful thinking that IF the Padres don’t trade Hosmer in 2022 … he will opt out after 2022.

Homser is getting married in a 4 day mega extravaganza in Miami to a FOX news personality (also well paid) who is an East Coast type both by birth and employment. If you paid attention to Hosmer he is real Miami guy.

That marriage connects two EAST COAST individuals with a lot of money in the pocket.

This marriage (and wives to have some influence) could be just enough to have Hosmer gamble on finding an EAST COAST team to be close to his wife … good chance she is not eager to leave her EAST COAST roots and career for three years in SD before returning home … most likely Miami.

Wishful thinking … maybe … BUT adds another coal to the fire!

Quote from BoosterSD on January 3, 2022, 6:33 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2021, 3:08 pm

Still building on my wishful thinking that IF the Padres don’t trade Hosmer in 2022 … he will opt out after 2022.

Homser is getting married in a 4 day mega extravaganza in Miami to a FOX news personality (also well paid) who is an East Coast type both by birth and employment. If you paid attention to Hosmer he is real Miami guy.

That marriage connects two EAST COAST individuals with a lot of money in the pocket.

This marriage (and wives to have some influence) could be just enough to have Hosmer gamble on finding an EAST COAST team to be close to his wife … good chance she is not eager to leave her EAST COAST roots and career for three years in SD before returning home … most likely Miami.

Wishful thinking … maybe … BUT adds another coal to the fire!

I dont think MIA is an option, since they have Jesus Aguilar, Cooper that can play 1B now, and apparently a couple of highly touted prospects that are close that also are 1B, according to MLBTR blog I read the other day.

If you think he wants East Coast, I still think the best option is either BAL or TAM depending on money. Especially for his clubhouse presence with a younger team like BAL. Plus, Camden Yards is a launching pad, where his bat would play a lot better than the huge ball parks of the NL West.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 3, 2022, 6:43 am

Even with the DH coming to the NL as we all believe will be part of the new CBA, I still think that LF is the biggest concern going into 2022 for SD. With the bats that we have for other positions, and highly defensively capable back up like Kim, I think SD will be just fine using the DH as a "rest day" for the bats of our line up. See 2020 for an example. We did not have a typical DH type, and our offense was just fine that season.

So, with the way it sits right now, and depending on the new CBA, if we dont have the room for a Castellanos/Schwarber contract. Who is really a viable option??? I read a blog on East Valley Times web page, and they mentioned a few options.

Could Corey Dickerson be an option? Would a platoon of Dickerson/Ona be a good option?

Could a trade for Benintendi be an option? Could SD work a trade around Hosmer and prospects/money for Benintendi and Santana?

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 3, 2022, 7:27 am

I like the Hosmer to KC involving Benintendi and Santana idea.

Depending on what else we have to part with of course player wise.

Santana just gets on base and Benintendi I think still has 10 years of above average baseball ahead of him.